Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 22, 2024

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2M   AD8   ANZ   ARB   BBN   BSL   CEN   CUV   DXS   EVS (2)   GPT   HUB (3)   INA   KMD   MAD   MAH   MND   OML   PRN   REH   RWC   S32   SUN (2)   VCX   WBC (2)   WGX  

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $5.65

Jarden rates ((A2M)) as Overweight (2) –

a2 Milk Co’s headline FY24 result metrics were slightly behind Jarden’s estimates. That said, the China revenue performance was in line with expectations and once again delivered against a challenging total China market, down -10.7% in value terms.

Management noted the A2 protein segment continued to grow strongly at 43% year on year and is now 18% of China’s value (11% in FY23). The other notable call out was the English label segment returning to growth.

FY25 guidance for mid-single digit growth is a miss (consensus high single digit), the key variance mostly attributable to 1H25 supply issues which are operational in nature with Synlait Milk ((SM1)) and targeted to be resolved by 1H25, the broker notes.

Jarden retains Overweight on valuation support and core infant formula performance. Target falls to NZ$7.25 from NZ$7.55.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Current Price is $5.65. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $6.32, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AD8    AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $10.46

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AD8)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights Audinate Group pre-released most of its FY24 results which left no notable surprises at the FY24 earnings report.

Management reiterated a slightly weaker FY25 gross profit with earnings returning to a “more predictable order pattern in FY26” as inventories unwind and discounting of older stock flows through.

The broker believes much of the FY25 disruption is cyclical and not structural.

Buy rating with $12 target unchanged.

This report was published on August 19, 2024.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $1.54
If AD8 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.53, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 261.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of -90.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 871.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 116.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.8, implying annual growth of 550.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 134.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $29.95

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Neutral (3) –

ANZ Bank reported a “sound” 3Q24 result according to Jarden.

Bad and doubtful debts came in below expectations; the CET1 ratio of around 12% will allow for more share buybacks and Jarden revises EPS forecasts by 0.6% in FY24, 1.9% in FY25.

Despite the attractive valuation, the broker’s preferred exposure is Westpac Bank ((WBCC). Neutral rated. Target price $29.50.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $29.95 Difference: minus $0.45 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.66, suggesting downside of -7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 167.00 cents and EPS of 229.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.7, implying annual growth of -4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 235.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.9, implying annual growth of -0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $41.60

Wilsons rates ((ARB)) as Overweight (1) –

ARB Corp delivered a “robust” FY24 result, Wilsons asserts, which was in line with expectations. The highlights include acceleration in sales growth in the second half and a consolidation of gross margin recovery.

The broker is increasingly confident that sales growth will accelerate further in FY25, noting the momentum building in the US, the resilience in the Australian aftermarket and the company’s confidence in pre-tax profit margins of more than 20%.

Wilsons increases its target to $47.52 from $44.39 and retains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $47.52 Current Price is $41.60 Difference: $5.92
If ARB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.42, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 135.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.7, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 144.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.3, implying annual growth of 8.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 82.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BBN    BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.54

Wilsons rates ((BBN)) as Overweight (1) –

Baby Bunting posted FY24 group sales that were down -3% and net profit that was down -75%, yet Wilsons notes the first half trading update was positive amid gross margin momentum and like-for-like sales stability.

Going forward the broker is encouraged by the return to growth that was achieved despite the removal of the key loyalty program and major pricing changes that drove gross margin expansion.

Overweight rating retained. Target is raised to $2.10 from $1.80.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.54 Difference: $0.56
If BBN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 12.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 550.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 42.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $20.32

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

BlueScope Steel’s FY24 earnings were at the low end of guidance and below Jarden’s estimate, driven by capitulating steel prices, higher operating and/or ramp-up costs, some property sale delays and a poor NZ operating performance.

The broker was disappointed in BlueScope’s safety performance and welcomes its acknowledgment and heightened response.

Strategically, the results illustrated the company’s business resilience, Jarden suggests, focused on sustainability, and balanced capital
allocation between shareholder returns and growth.

Significant capex growth opportunities remain on track across North America and Australia. Target falls to $22.90 from $23.50, Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $22.90 Current Price is $20.32 Difference: $2.58
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.10, suggesting upside of 3.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 146.9, implying annual growth of -18.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.6, implying annual growth of 40.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CEN    CONTACT ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.99

Jarden rates ((CEN)) as Buy (1) –

Contact Energy reported FY24 earnings in line with Jarden, with a pre-guided dividend of NZ37c. Dividends trail cash flow, the broker notes, therefore patience is required.

Build projects are progressing well, new solar starting up and moving toward final investment decision by end 2024 on Te Mihi 2. The start to FY25 has been positive despite low lake levels.

Due to the lower guided near-term output from Wairakei, pre the Te Mhi 2 generating coming online in FY28, Jarden reduces FY26-27 earnings forecasts, reducing its target to NZ$10.77 from NZ$10.85. Buy retained.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Current Price is $7.99. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 33.57 cents and EPS of 33.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.80.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 31.64 cents and EPS of 31.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.26.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV    CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $13.57

Wilsons rates ((CUV)) as Overweight (1) –

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals has announced a delay to its vitiligo readout by roughly 6-8 months to the end of June 2025, observes Wilsons.

The company has announced that its pivotal Phase III CUV105  vitiligo trial protocol will now include a 20-week open-label extension period to boost recruitment and adherence of patience randomised to the control treatment arm of the trial that will now receive SCENESSE also.

Clinuvel has also broadened its enrolment criteria to include patients with facial lesions (previously only body).

The broker concedes this is a setback, but says the inclusion into the process means the second Phase III study won’t experience similar recruitment problems.

The broker is reviewing the earnings implications given the potential affect on the R&D budget. For now Overweight rating and $31.38 target price are retained.

This report was published on August 22, 2024.

Target price is $31.38 Current Price is $13.57 Difference: $17.81
If CUV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 131% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 38.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 61.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.9, implying annual growth of 11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 59.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.7, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $6.88

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes the new Dexus CEO is trying to steady the ship with more realistic valuations; a reset in the dividend payout and lower FY25 guidance. All-in-all more “prudent” capital management.

The REIT has a best in class office portfolio with some signs the market is “stabilising”; capital raisings, the broker notes, remain challenging.

Neutral rated. Target price $7.60. Jarden will mark-to-market the earnings models in the near term.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.88 Difference: $0.72
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.62, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 64.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.9, implying annual growth of -2.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVS    ENVIROSUITE LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.04

Moelis rates ((EVS)) as Buy (1) –

EnviroSuite delivered adjusted EBITDA of $1.1m in FY24 which was lower than the $1.4m Moelis anticipated.

The broker reduces FY25 and FY26 sales estimates by -2% and -5%, respectively, and EBITDA by -12% for both years, factoring in greater reinvestment in operating expenditure and personnel.

The main catalyst is breaking even in terms of free cash flow, which the broker expects in FY26 on a full year basis, with debt peaking in the first half of FY25. A constructive view is maintained with a Buy rating. Target is 6c.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.02
If EVS meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((EVS)) as Market Weight (3) –

The FY24 results from EnviroSuite were largely in line with expectations. Wilsons believes the modest balance sheet could prevent management from being able to invest in the opportunities that are available, and this in turn could limit growth.

Once profitability has been achieved, growth could then reaccelerate as the business invests to capture compelling opportunities and focus on longer-term initiatives, the broker adds.

Market Weight maintained. Target edges down to 4c from 5c.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0
If EVS meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.44.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.74

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden believes the new GPT Group management team is rightly focused on stronger and more consistent growth and returns and that the growing funds management platform is arguably underappreciated by investors.

The broker suggests strength in retail, logistics and fund management should help offset the weakness in office, and with weighted average cost of debt largely marked to market, expects GPT to be able to deliver 5% compound earnings growth from FY24 onwards.

The stock is trading at an -11% discount to net tangible asset valuation and with a 5.1% dividend yield based on guidance, GPT’s underperformance versus the sector year to date looks overdone.

Overweight and $4.85 target retained.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.11
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.81, suggesting upside of 1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of 0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $53.55

Jarden rates ((HUB)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Jarden observes the Hub24 platform revenue came in lower than expected in FY24 with EBITDA meeting forecasts.

The broker believes the FY26 funds under administration guidance is conservative but some “moderation” is expected in margins.

EPS forecasts are revised by -1% for FY25 and -3.5% for FY26. Target price trimmed to $44.20 from $44.45.

Due to the valuation with much of the good news/earnings forecasts discounted in the stock price, Jarden downgrades Hub24 to Underweight from Neutral

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $44.20 Current Price is $53.55 Difference: minus $9.35 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $52.06, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.20 cents and EPS of 106.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 92.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 64.20 cents and EPS of 128.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.9, implying annual growth of 20.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

Hub24’s FY24 results were broadly in line with estimates, and revised guidance for a FY26 platform target of $115-123bn reflects management’s confidence, Moelis asserts.

The broker calculates 23% EPS growth from FY24-27, underpinned by strong net inflows and a decline in cost growth. Given the strong share price performance a Hold rating is maintained. Target is $53.85.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $53.85 Current Price is $53.55 Difference: $0.3
If HUB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.06, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.70 cents and EPS of 109.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 92.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 66.90 cents and EPS of 133.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.9, implying annual growth of 20.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

Wilsons upgrades Hub24 to Overweight from Market Weight following a strong start to FY25. The broker considers the upgraded guidance, that signals more than $11bn in net flows per annum, highlights the opportunities ahead.

The broker also emphasises the balance sheet is in an “intriguing position”, which signals the company may be readying for further M&A.

With the ongoing momentum and positive earnings upgrades, Wilsons expects the shares will close the PE gap relative to Netwealth Group ((NWL)) over the next 12 months. Target is raised to $56.20 from $49.00.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $56.20 Current Price is $53.55 Difference: $2.65
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $52.06, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 115.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 46.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 92.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 149.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 134.9, implying annual growth of 20.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $5.31

Jarden rates ((INA)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes Ingenia Communities reported “solid” FY24 results and guidance infers this is likely to continue into FY25.

The broker notes the REIT’s strong capital structure with gearing at 27.8% for options around asset recycling.

Jarden will mark-to-market earnings models in the near term.

Overweight rated. $5.5 target price.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $5.31 Difference: $0.19
If INA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.65, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 22.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 594.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 24.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.0, implying annual growth of 21.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.48

Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

KMD Brands pre-released its major FY24 earnings metrics which are broadly in line with the June trading update, Jarden observes, including a reduction in inventory and a positive net debt surprise.

The analyst makes minor forecast changes.

Target price unchanged at NZ70c with a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Current Price is $0.48. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $0.41, suggesting downside of -14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 104.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.38 cents and EPS of 2.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.1, implying annual growth of 272.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $5.37

Moelis rates ((MAD)) as Buy (1) –

Mader Group achieved guidance in its FY24 results with Moelis observing the Australian segment grew strongly and North America, while still growing, moderated.

Net profit of $50.4m was broadly in line with expectations. The broker updates estimates to imply 16% compound growth in EPS for FY24-26.

Catalysts should come from continued expansion in North America and an increased contribution from ancillary services. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $6.52 from $7.41.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $6.52 Current Price is $5.37 Difference: $1.15
If MAD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 27.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.82.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.80 cents and EPS of 31.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.05.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.32

Jarden rates ((MAH)) as Overweight (2) –

Macmahon reported better than expected FY24 results with revenue 7% higher than consensus forecasts, Jarden notes.

The broker believes FY25 will be a “transformative” year for the company as Greenbushes is ramped up;  transfer of Calidus ownship takes place and recent acquisitions are integrated.

Gearing has lowered to 18.8% from 24.9% in FY23, Jarden highlights.

Target price revised to 32c from 28c. Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0
If MAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.15.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.30 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.15.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $12.89

Jarden rates ((MND)) as Overweight (2) –

Monadelphous Group’s guidance for FY25 has come in better than “feared” according to Jarden and resulted in slight EPS forecast upgrades.

The engineering/construction divisions reported 32% growth year-on-year for FY24, with new contract wins in July/August serving up an additional circa $500m of new works to carry the company through FY25, the broker highlights.

The concerns around the cancelation of Albermarle’s Kemerton project have been alleviated somewhat, the broker suggests.

Overweight rating. Target moves to $13.50 from $13.80.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $12.89 Difference: $0.61
If MND meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.37, suggesting upside of 11.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.80 cents and EPS of 73.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.9, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 66.30 cents and EPS of 76.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.4, implying annual growth of 2.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML    OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((OML)) as Neutral (3) –

oOh!media’s first half sales and earnings fell well short of Goldman Sachs. Forward commentary around the December Q revenue outlook in A&NZ is positive, the broker noting it is broad-based strength and has been increasing week by week.

The company expects to win $38m of new Sydney/Melbourne contracts from 2025, believing competition remains very rational on key large contract renewals, with benefits of incumbency.

Goldman nevertheless expects margins to be flat again in FY25, given the competition in smaller assets with lower barriers to entry is high, and new contract wins are not running at 100% revenue initially.

New retail media contract wins are expected to be announced in 2H24. Neutral and $1.50 target retained.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.17
If OML meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.67, suggesting upside of 25.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 55.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of 17.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRN    PERENTI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $1.00

Moelis rates ((PRN)) as Buy (1) –

Free cash flow in FY25 stood out with Perenti reporting $185m, that Moelis notes was a function of improved conversion, cash generating drilling and working capital. A new target for free cash flow for FY25 implies topline growth and margin expansion.

The broker comments the company has demonstrated momentum in converting a growing pipeline with cash generation and progressive de-gearing underpinning a payout policy of 30-40% of net profit.

Estimates for FY25 are revised down by -7% and FY26 revised up by 2% to reflect guidance as well as rebase interest and tax. A Buy rating is maintained, the target lifted to $1.29 from $1.25.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.29 Current Price is $1.00 Difference: $0.29
If PRN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 17.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.81.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REH    REECE LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $26.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((REH)) as Sell (5) –

Reece Group reported FY24 earnings slightly below Goldman Sachs. The US was broadly in line, while A&NZ margins of 14.6% came in weaker than anticipated due to a softening housing market.

Management expects the housing market to remain soft with Goldman forecasting -1% market growth as residential activity remains depressed as affordability issues persist.

Reece was also relatively cautious on the near-term outlook for the US as relative strength in single family new home construction is set against weakness in multi and R&R, which is being impacted by affordability issues on elevated mortgage rates.

Target falls -2% to $23.70, Sell retained on valuation.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $26.21 Difference: minus $2.51 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.28, suggesting downside of -15.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.6, implying annual growth of -3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 29.00 cents and EPS of 73.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.2, implying annual growth of 12.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.10

Jarden rates ((RWC)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden liked the Reliance Worldwide FY24 result emphasising the quality of the earnings, with cashflow conversion from EBITDA at 114% versus the 90% target.

Management lowered gearing to the bottom end of the target range, the broker highlights, and  continues to focus on what is controllable as volumes have yet to recover.

Target price lifts 7% to $5.60. Overweight rating maintained.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $5.10 Difference: $0.5
If RWC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.72, suggesting upside of 12.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.86 cents and EPS of 28.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.86 cents and EPS of 35.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.3, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.01

Canaccord Genuity rates ((S32)) as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage of South32 with a Sell rating and $2.25 target price.

Post the sale of the Illawarra Met Coal business, the broker does not envisage a major source of earnings growth to supplement and replace the earnings foregone.

Costs are expected to continue to increase at the Worsley alumina refinery and aluminium earnings to be limited with a “balanced market”.

The analyst points to a substantial capex commitment, the Taylor project highlighted as a major cash drain.

Sell. $2.25 target price.

This report was published on August 19, 2024.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $3.01 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 22.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.79 cents and EPS of 11.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.45 cents and EPS of 8.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.7, implying annual growth of 200.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $18.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Suncorp Group’s FY24 underlying margin was in line with Goldman Sachs. FY25 margin guidance is towards the top of 10-12% suggesting strong earned rate versus inflation offsetting lower reserve releases, yields and discounting impacts.

Gross written premium guidance assumes the rate to be at or ahead of claims inflation assuming a rational market. The broker is watchful for signs of increased price competition and volume impacts – particularly over 2H25 as the rate moderates.

Suncorp trades at 15.2x FY26 earnings post bank sale, with more resilient margins, book-driven earnings growth into FY25 an beyond, and with return on tangible equity supportive of valuation, Goldman suggests.

Buy and $18.50 target retained.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $18.03 Difference: $0.47
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.63, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 115.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.8, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 118.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Overweight (2) –

While lower general insurance (GI) growth drove a slight miss in FY24 versus Jarden’s estimates, Suncorp Group delivered a 50bps improvement in the FY24 underlying insurance trading ratio year on year.

The improved margin appears to have been sustainably delivered, the broker notes, underpinned by expense ratio and attritional loss
ratio gains, while reserve release assumptions have been trimmed and catastrophe allowances strengthened further.

With Suncorp signalling regular ongoing buybacks, as well as an increase in GI gearing, Jarden sees further support for earnings in the medium term. Target rises to $17.35 from $17.15, Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $17.35 Current Price is $18.03 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.63, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 99.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.8, implying annual growth of 13.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 92.00 cents and EPS of 118.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 115.1, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX    VICINITY CENTRES

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.22

Jarden rates ((VCX)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden believes Vicinity Centres reported better than anticipated FY24 results with FY25 guidance higher than forecast.

The broker likes the asset recycling program, leading to an improved tenant mix and attractive development pipeline for the REIT.

Jarden will mark-to-market earnings models in the near term. Buy rated. $2.35 target price.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.13
If VCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.09, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 14.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of 19.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.1, implying annual growth of 5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $30.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((WBC)) as Sell (5) –

Westpac’s 3Q24 earnings were up 2% on the 1H24 quarterly average, and run-rating 8% above what was implied by Goldman Sachs’ prior 2H24 forecasts. The beat was driven by better than expected performance on bad debts.

While the capital ratio was below the broker’s prior forecasts, various APRA changes mean the pro-forma capital position is better than Goldman’s prior expectations, and the broker therefore adds a 15c special dividend in 2H24 and 1H25.

Goldman Sachs retains Sell on technology execution risk and an overweight to domestic housing, which the broker expects will be more growth constrained than commercial lending over the medium term.

Target rises to $25.84 from $24.10.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $25.84 Current Price is $30.28 Difference: minus $4.44 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting downside of -12.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 180.00 cents and EPS of 194.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.3, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 194.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.5, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Overweight (2) –

Westpac delivered a strong third quarter, with beats to Jarden’s forecasts on margins and loan losses. Core net interest margin expansion was a highlight, although the broker believes part of the outperformance was driven by company-specific benefits.

The update is continuing to support the view that bank earnings are resilient, Jarden suggests, with scope for small positive earnings revisions. Core capital is sound, providing scope for further capital management.

Target rises to $28.60 from $26.20, Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 21, 2024.

Target price is $28.60 Current Price is $30.28 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.58, suggesting downside of -12.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 182.00 cents and EPS of 193.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.3, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 193.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 195.5, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 156.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes the completion of the Westgold Resources merger with Karora Resources which takes the combined companies into a Top 5 ASX gold producer.

Westgold Resources has around $165m in cash and equivalents with no debt; it is unhedged and milling capacity of 6.9mt per annum, the broker highlights.

FY25 guidance is expected by late September. Buy rating with a revised target to $3.50 from $3.55.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.05 Difference: $0.45
If WGX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.26.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.03.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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