Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 10, 2024

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((CIA))
            [1] => ((CMM))
            [2] => ((CSC))
            [3] => ((EXR))
            [4] => ((GNE))
            [5] => ((GQG))
            [6] => ((HUB))
            [7] => ((IEL))
            [8] => ((IFT))
            [9] => ((JDO))
            [10] => ((LNW))
            [11] => ((LOT))
            [12] => ((MAC))
            [13] => ((NWL))
            [14] => ((ORG))
            [15] => ((PER))
            [16] => ((PME))
            [17] => ((SGM))
            [18] => ((TNE))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => CIA
            [1] => CMM
            [2] => CSC
            [3] => EXR
            [4] => GNE
            [5] => GQG
            [6] => HUB
            [7] => IEL
            [8] => IFT
            [9] => JDO
            [10] => LNW
            [11] => LOT
            [12] => MAC
            [13] => NWL
            [14] => ORG
            [15] => PER
            [16] => PME
            [17] => SGM
            [18] => TNE
        )

)

This story features CHAMPION IRON LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CIA
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

CIA   CMM   CSC   EXR   GNE   GQG   HUB   IEL   IFT   JDO   LNW   LOT   MAC   NWL   ORG   PER   PME   SGM   TNE  

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $6.52

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Jarden lowers its target for Champion Iron to $6.91 from $7.47 and downgrades to Overweight from Buy.

The target falls due to a – 7% reduction in the broker’s FY27 P65 grade (65% iron content) price average forecast, offset marginally by a lower assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC).

The analysts forecast a price realisation for 66.2% Bloom Lake concentrate of US$120.8/dmt compared to the US$126.1/dmt average for the June quarter.

Underpinning the broker’s Overweight rating, is the new DRPF 69% iron project which is progressing well, notes the broker. The low impurity DRPF product is a strategic differentiator helping achieve materially improved prices, explains Jarden.

This report was published on October 4, 2024.

Target price is $6.91 Current Price is $6.52 Difference: $0.39
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.92 cents and EPS of 63.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.19.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 15.58 cents and EPS of 42.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.46.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CMM    CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.79

Jarden rates ((CMM)) as Buy (1) –

Capricorn Metals announced 1Q25 preliminary results of 25.6koz which was slightly below Jarden’s forecast and around -5.6% below consensus.

Cash at the end of the quarter came in at $145m, also marginally below expectations with less cash banked in the quarter at $20m. The company is expected to end FY25 with over $170m in cash using the current capex guidance.

The broker is anticipating production will increase over the rest of FY25 and the expected gold price rises to US$1925oz from US$1850oz. EPS forecasts are raised accordingly.

The target rises to $6.62 from $6.59. Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on October 9, 2024.

Target price is $6.62 Current Price is $5.79 Difference: $0.83
If CMM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.60, suggesting upside of 13.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 36.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 51.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 32.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of -13.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSC    CAPSTONE COPPER CORP.

Copper – Overnight Price: $11.34

Moelis rates ((CSC)) as Buy (1) –

After operating at more than 75% nameplate capacity for 30 consecutive days, management at Capstone Copper has made a formal declaration of commercial production at the Mantoverde Development Project.

Separately, management flagged potential to come in at the bottom end of production guidance for FY24, and also exceed the top end of cost guidance. Moelis explains production slips into the next period largely due to commissioning of two key projects.

The $14 target and Buy rating are maintained.

This report was published on October 9, 2024.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $11.34 Difference: $2.66
If CSC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.63.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 101.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.18.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EXR    ELIXIR ENERGY LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.06

Petra Capital rates ((EXR)) as Buy (1) –

Test results for the Daydream-2 well appear to have been impacted by a build-up of water and condensates around the wellbore, observes Petra Capital.

This well has now been suspended for future production, and attention will now turn to Daydream-3, highlights the analyst.

The target falls to 19c from 25c as the broker allows for increased dilution (no mention is made of a forecast capital raise) due to a material drop in the underlying share price. Buy.

This report was published on October 10, 2024.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.128
If EXR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 206% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNE    GENESIS ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $1.87

Jarden rates ((GNE)) as Buy (1) –

Genesis Energy announced it is acquiring a 65% stake in ChargeNet for -NZ$64m with a further -NZ$32m for capex investment in the expansion of ChargeNet’s charging network.

The company currently operates 428 public fast-charging points across NZ. Over 90% of NZ’s EV drivers are registered customers, Jarden highlights, although ChargeNet has only around a 34% share of the country’s charging network.

The broker estimates the acquisition will be earnings “neutral” over the medium term.

Buy rated and NZ$2.83 target price.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Current Price is $1.87. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.90 cents and EPS of 6.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.76.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.27 cents and EPS of 7.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG    GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((GQG)) as Buy (1) –

GQG Partners reported US$6.2bn in net inflows for 3Q24 and US$2.2bn for the month, Goldman Sachs observes.

Some mild redemption pressures were noticed from institutional clients over the 3Q24 which were offset by growth of wholesale and sub-advisory inflows.

The investment manager underperformed in the September quarter, the analyst notes, but medium to long-term outperformance remains.

Target price lowers to $3.00 from $3.05. Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on October 8, 2024.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.35
If GQG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.32, suggesting upside of 21.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.19 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.21 cents and EPS of 25.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.9, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $62.06

Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons upgrades its funds under administration (FUA) forecasts by 1-2% for Hub24 and Netwealth Group following a strong rally for domestic equities in the latter half of the September quarter. US Indices were more neutral after considering translation impacts.

The improved market sentiment and flow opportunity environment should remain positive, in the broker’s view.

Wilsons raises its target for Hub24 to $74.41 from $56.20. The broker’s valuation year is rolled-forward to FY26 to better capture the full benefit of what is expected to be another strong year. Overweight.

This report was published on October 9, 2024.

Target price is $74.41 Current Price is $62.06 Difference: $12.35
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $55.30, suggesting downside of -13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 117.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 109.0, implying annual growth of 87.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 151.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.1, implying annual growth of 19.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $15.03

Jarden rates ((IEL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights IDP Education has scope to outperform industry volumes in FY25 with the potential to increase market share to offset the adverse impacts of lower student volumes, replicating the same trend achieved in the FY24 results.

The analyst also believes there is limited downside risks to EPS in FY25 and views the current fiscal year as a trough in the earnings cycle with scope for a recovery in earnings growth over FY26/FY27.

Jarden reiterates Overweight rating and $19.60 target price. There are no changes to the broker’s earnings forecasts.

This report was published on October 9, 2024.

Target price is $19.60 Current Price is $15.03 Difference: $4.57
If IEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.04, suggesting upside of 19.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.50 cents and EPS of 46.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.4, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.70 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.3, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFT    INFRATIL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $11.17

Jarden rates ((IFT)) as Overweight (2) –

Infratil has raised its guidance for its equity contributions to CDC Data Centres over the next 2-3 years by $100m to around $700m.

Also, the independent valuation for September for the company’s CDC stake indicated a 409MW uplift to the data centre operator’s development pipeline out to FY34, noting a “continued high level of interest from customers”.

Overweight rating is maintained, and the broker’s target price rises to NZ$12.70 from NZ$12.20.

This report was published on October 7, 2024.

Current Price is $11.17. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.35 cents and EPS of 1.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 638.29.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.36 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 159.55.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JDO    JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.71

Goldman Sachs rates ((JDO)) as Buy (1) –

Database catch-up: While Goldman Sachs analysts rermain skeptical about management’s guidance for FY25 pre-tax profit growth of 15%, they do retain a positive view and anticipate FY26 will be a strong year for Judo Capital.

FY24 cash earnings met market forecasts and the analysts have been positively surprised by measures of asset quality.

Earnings estimates have been lowered by -9.6% and -6.5% for FY25 and FY26. Higher taxes and higher costs are part of why.

Target price has lost -1c to $1.71. With growth expected to accelerate in FY26, Buy rating retained.

This report was published on August 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.71 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0
If JDO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting upside of 1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 60.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $143.04

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Importantly, suggests Jarden, management has wrested back the narrative heading into the Global Gaming Exhibition, the world’s largest trade show. CEO Matt Wilson has issued a statement via video relating to the Dragon Train injunction and mitigating steps.

The potential -5% negative earnings impact of Dragon Train has resulted in a market overreaction, according to the broker, with the share price falling by -24%. Management has confirmed FY25 guidance of US$1.4bn AEBITDA.

Buy rating remains. Target price declines to $174 from $175.

This report was published on October 7, 2024.

Target price is $174.00 Current Price is $143.04 Difference: $30.96
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $169.20, suggesting upside of 18.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 444.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 448.7, implying annual growth of 66.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 588.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 598.2, implying annual growth of 33.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOT    LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $0.28

Petra Capital rates ((LOT)) as Buy (1) –

The target for first production at the Kayelekera project in Malawi has been brought forward to between 8-10 months (in the September quarter of 2025) from 12-15 months previously.

The newly released FEED study has allowed management to decouple the project restart from some items required only for optimisation (thereby reducing the expected refurbishment timeframe), explains the analyst.

The Buy rating is unchanged, but the broker’s target rises to 36c from 33c.

This report was published on October 10, 2024.

Target price is $0.36 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.085
If LOT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 100.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 91.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAC    METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $20.70

Wilsons rates ((MAC)) as Overweight (1) –

Management at Metals Acquisition will raise around US$96m via a capital raise. In combination with existing cash, proceeds will be used to retire the existing US$145m Mezzanine finance facility from Sprott Resource Lending, explains Wilsons.

Apart from this significant deleveraging event, the broker sees an additional opportunity to reduce interest expense by circa -US$5m per year from a later refinancing of the company’s US$170m senior debt facility.

Separately, Q3 operating numbers aligned with expectations held by the broker and consensus, and management expects to meet the mid-point of 2024 guidance of around 40kt of copper.

Overweight. The target falls to $23.50 from $24.00.

This report was published on October 10, 2024.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $20.70 Difference: $2.8
If MAC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 78.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.51.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 94.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.92.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $26.16

Wilsons rates ((NWL)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons upgrades its funds under administration (FUA) forecasts by 1-2% for Hub24 and Netwealth Group following a strong rally for domestic equities in the latter half of the September quarter. US Indices were more neutral after considering translation impacts.

The improved market sentiment and flow opportunity environment should remain positive, in the broker’s view.

Wilsons raises its target for Netwealth Group to $25.16 from $21.04. The broker’s valuation year is rolled-forward to FY26 to better capture the full benefit of what is expected to be another strong year. Market Weight.

This report was published on October 9, 2024.

Target price is $25.16 Current Price is $26.16 Difference: minus $1 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.19, suggesting downside of -18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 32.20 cents and EPS of 42.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.3, implying annual growth of 26.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 62.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.50 cents and EPS of 50.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.4, implying annual growth of 21.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.32

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Overweight (2) –

Sinopec has lodged a price review notice regarding its long-term LNG supply contract with Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG), in which Origin Energy holds a 27.5% interest.

The notice requires both parties to negotiate any necessary changes to ensure the contract price remains competitive with the prevailing market rates for similar long-term LNG contract, explains Jarden.

If an agreement cannot be reached, the matter may be referred to an expert for determination, which could take some months to resolve, according to the broker.

Jarden suspects the market will take a conservative view on the outcome until the process is resolved. The Overweight rating and $10.00 target are maintained.

This report was published on October 7, 2024.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.32 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting upside of 3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 77.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.3, implying annual growth of -10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 61.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.0, implying annual growth of -14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PER    PERCHERON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.10

Wilsons rates ((PER)) as Overweight (1) –

Data from Percheron Therapeutics’ all-important Phase IIb trial in Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD) is due within the
next three months.

Wilsons highlights how the industry landscape has moved in the company’s favour since the trial commenced around three years ago.

Developments include approval of first single-shot gene therapy in DMD and approval of the first novel mechanism histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitor, Givinostat.

The broker expects material upside in the event of trial success though highlights the speculative nature of the binary outcome.

With success in the EU, and the US to follow, the outlook for avicursen (ATL1102) has never looked stronger from a market point of view, suggest the analysts. Potential exists for peak sales of around US$600m, notes Wilsons.

The Overweight rating and 27c target are maintained.

This report was published on October 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.27 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.17
If PER meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 170% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.85.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.70.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $186.63

Wilsons rates ((PME)) as Market Weight (3) –

The Mercy Health contract renewal for Pro Medicus was the largest anticipated by Wilsons for 2024. It resulted in a material uplift in value to $98m for eight years, up from seven, supporting more than $17m in annualised revenue.

The analysts had forecast a $61m contract value.

The win not only reflects the stickiness of Visage’s customer base, but also demonstrates the return on investment (ROI) customers receive, highlights the broker. Ultimately, this supports acceptance of higher pricing and a willingness to increase contract terms.

On a contracted minimum basis, the value of the Mercy contract has increased by around 136% reflecting a mix of pricing and volume
uplifts, explains Wilsons.

Target $145. Market Weight.

This report was published on October 8, 2024.

Target price is $145.00 Current Price is $186.63 Difference: minus $41.63 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $128.50, suggesting downside of -31.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 102.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 182.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.7, implying annual growth of 29.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 183.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 61.90 cents and EPS of 125.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 148.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.7, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 138.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $12.81

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes Sims is a better quality, more streamlined business following the sale of the UK Metals business for a better-than-expected GBP222m and meaningful cost-out program.

In the analysts’ view, management now  needs to focus its North American Metals (NAM) business around a “profitable volume” model instead of purely volume.

The target rises to $12.70 from $12.50. Neutral.

This report was published on October 7, 2024.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $12.81 Difference: minus $0.11 (current price is over target).
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.85, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 35.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 80.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.1, implying annual growth of 94.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $24.38

Goldman Sachs rates ((TNE)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

Since adding TechnologyOne to a Buy rating on June 26, 2023, Goldman Sachs points to a 61% rally in the share price versus the ASX200 which is up 16%.

The stock has re-rated to a price-to-earnings valuation of 56x from 40x since the May 2024 results. The broker notes the stock is now trading above the upgraded share price target of $24.05, hence the downgrade to Neutral from Buy.

Goldman Sachs explains growth in annual recurring revenue is around mid-teens out to FY30, supporting $1bn in annual recurring revenue. With SaaS margins over 80%, profit before tax growth rate of 15%-20% is viewed as the “new normal”.

The broker is looking to FY24 results in November for further indications of momentum in UK or cross-selling of its SaaS.

This report was published on October 7, 2024.

Target price is $24.05 Current Price is $24.38 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If TNE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.09, suggesting downside of -18.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.2, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.4, implying annual growth of 17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 58.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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