Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 30, 2024

This story features ADAIRS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ADH (2)   ARX   BLX   BSA   CAR   CSL   CTD   EVN   FEX   FLT   INR   KAR   MEI   MGH   NST   NWS   NXS   PXA   REA   RMD   RRL   SEK   STX   SYA (2)   TCL   VAU  

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $2.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADH)) as Buy (1) –

Adairs’ trading update pleased Canaccord Genuity, with a particularly strong sales performance the highlight, complemented by gross margins pacing ahead of a year ago despite headwinds from FX and initial impacts from higher freight costs.

The broker remains optimistic on the near-term outlook, while cautioning that we are entering peak retail trading at year-end. Canaccord has taken the view that management’s initiatives to turn around Adairs  and Mocka will outweigh continuing cost of living pressures.

The broker is nonetheless cautious on Focus forecasts given weak recent trading. In the medium term, Canaccord sees material top-line optionality and room for operating leverage. Target rises to $2.80 from $2.50, Buy retained.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.19
If ADH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting downside of -11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of -20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ADH)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons notes Adairs reported strong sales growth of 16% year-on-year for weeks 9-16 of FY25 and stable gross margins, up 50bps.

Focus on Furniture experienced a decline in sales -4% on the previous corresponding period while Mocka showed recovery with growth of 6% in Australia.

The broker’s EBIT forecasts are revised up for FY25 and FY26 by 14% and 10%, respectively, due to improved cost discipline and increased sales

Target price rises to $2.40 from $1.95 on the back of the results. Market weight retained,

This report was published on October 24, 2024.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: minus $0.21 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.31, suggesting downside of -11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.50 cents and EPS of 22.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of -20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 24.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARX)) as Buy (1) –

Aroa Biosurgery reported its 2Q25 result in line with Canaccord Genuity’s expectations. Myriad sales appear to be progressing well with the combination of a maturing salesforce, focus on trauma/higher value procedures and commitment to generating validating
clinical data beginning to play out.

Delays to TELA Bio’s inventory work-through will likely be behind us, the broker suggests, and while 2Q was relatively weak on some one-off impacts, the longer-term structural growth story continues to impress with 2024 guidance of 27-31% growth maintained.

Guidance to a maiden profit in FY25 is maintained, with Canaccord expecting operating leverage and scale to come through in FY26. Buy and $1.00 target retained.

This report was published on October 24, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.405
If ARX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 161.68.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.80.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX    BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $2.90

Jarden rates ((BLX)) as Overweight (2) –

Post Beacon Lighting’s AGM update, Jarden sees stable trade growth and a potential retail recovery in FY26.

Management highlighted robust momentum in the trade segment, offsetting softness in retail, with trade expected to achieve a 16.5% compound average growth rate through FY28.

Jarden’s EPS forecast is lowered slighly for FY25 with FY26-27 estimates revised up by around 1-2%.

The gross margin forecast remains stable at 68%, supported by cost control and new product releases. 

Target rises to $3 from $2.70, Overweight retained.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.1
If BLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.21, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.90 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.1, implying annual growth of 15.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSA    BSA LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $1.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BSA)) as Buy (1) –

BSA reported a strong 1Q25 result, Canaccord Genuity suggests, with underlying earnings up 48% year on year and up 3% on the prior quarter, and guidance provided for FY25. As a result, the broker has lifted FY25 earnings forecasts.

BSA also recently announced it would team with UGL to tender for the upcoming NBN Field Services contract, which will combine the complementary capabilities of the two groups, both currently providers to NBN.

Current estimated timelines indicate the NBN Field Services contract will not commence before September 2025 and therefore this tender process is not expected to materially impact BSA’s FY25 performance.

Canaccord notes BSA continues to position itself for future opportunities in the electric vehicle market. Target rises to $1.75 from $1.62, Buy retained.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.02 Difference: $0.73
If BSA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.26.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.81.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CAR GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $37.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((CAR)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs reviews recent data points for classifieds coverage and concludes the data is positive “broadly” for REA Group ((REA)) and Seek ((SEK)) but negative for CAR Group.

The analyst highlights robust start to Australian property listings for FY25, while A&NZ job ads seem to be above Seek’s guidance. Goldman Sachs is now forecasting peak unemployment of 4.6% in June 2025. 

Car dealers’ numbers remain under pressure with new car sales down -7% in 1Q25 which could impact on CAR Group.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $44.50 from $40.50.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $44.50 Current Price is $37.48 Difference: $7.02
If CAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.67, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.5, implying annual growth of 48.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.0, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $292.67

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes moderate delays and FDA uncertainties in the R&D pipeline for CSL, with mixed outcomes across projects.

Prominent developments are the Horizon 2 project, expected to drive substantial Ig yield improvements but facing regulatory clarifications, and GARADACIMAB, which awaits FDA re-approval after procedural delays.

The broker notes the pipeline also shows new product directions like nebulised IgG and self-amplifying mRNA vaccines.

No changes to Overweight rating and $329.62 target price. Jarden  points to CSL’s ongoing Vifor integration and sector competition as ongoing risks.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $329.62 Current Price is $292.67 Difference: $36.95
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $335.13, suggesting upside of 14.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 452.69 cents and EPS of 917.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1035.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 461.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 458.43 cents and EPS of 1140.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1217.7, implying annual growth of 17.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 528.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTD    CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $11.66

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CTD)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity Initiates coverage of Corporate Travel Management with a Buy rating and $14.40 price target.

Notwithstanding recent results which have compressed the company’s PE multiple, the broker believes the underlying foundation remains well positioned to continue to grow after FY25 resets the earnings base with project work in FY24 inflating the earnings outcome.

Canaccord believes there is a very strong valuation thesis as well as medium-term earnings support, and has not made any forecast for M&A activity which is typically earnings accretive and seems somewhat probable on a forward five-year view.

The broker does not forecast management’s five-year target to double earnings but still forecasts 50% profit growth over that period and believes the stock is undervalued.

This report was published on October 24, 2024.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $11.66 Difference: $2.74
If CTD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.49, suggesting upside of 24.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.70 cents and EPS of 75.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.2, implying annual growth of 36.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.40 cents and EPS of 86.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.5, implying annual growth of 16.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $5.21

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden maintains an Underweight rating on Evolution Mining and raises the 12-month target price to $3.54 from $3.25, reflecting increased value in undeveloped resources, primarily through new findings at Northparkes and Cowal.

Quarterly production surpassed expectations with gold and copper outputs exceeding forecasts, despite rising costs at Ernest Henry due to lower head grades and operational shutdowns. all-in-sustaining-costs improved, though high capex remains a concern.

EPS forecasts are modestly adjusted for FY25-FY27. 

Underweight. Target price $5.54.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $3.54 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $1.67 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.45, suggesting downside of -14.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 42.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 24.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FEX    FENIX RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $0.27

Petra Capital rates ((FEX)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital reiterates a Buy rating for Fenix Resources, lowering the target price down to $0.42 from $0.44, reflecting lower anticipated FY25 sales and elevated costs.

Strong Q3 results saw 346kt of premium iron ore shipped at US$106/t, 6% above the benchmark, with C1 cash costs slightly reduced to A$78.8/wmt.

The broker notes Fenix Resources plans to ramp up production, with first shipments from Shine Mine expected in November and Beebyn-W11 production slated for early 2025.

The company’s infrastructure and cash reserves of $72m positions it well for expansion in Western Australia’s Mid-West region.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.15
If FEX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.22.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 3.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.71.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $15.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((FLT)) as Initiation of coverage with Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity Initiates coverage of Flight Centre Travel with a Hold rating and $16.65 price target.

Although the company’s recent market update suggested consensus FY25 may be too high, Canaccord believes it highlights the many moving parts in this business that are hard to forecast.

The broker does see further growth over the short and medium term, comprised of the final stages of industry recovery from shutdown restrictions and improvements Flight Centre continues to make internally, however does not ascribe to the sharp earnings recovery many consensus forecasts indicate over the next four years.

While the current PE multiple is reasonably attractive for entry, Canaccord believes a further buffer is required.

This report was published on October 24, 2024.

Target price is $16.65 Current Price is $15.67 Difference: $0.98
If FLT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.81, suggesting upside of 51.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.1, implying annual growth of 102.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 132.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 148.1, implying annual growth of 14.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INR    IONEER LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((INR)) as Buy (1) –

Ioneer has announced that it has been issued a positive Record of Decision by the Bureau of Land Management for its Rhyolite Ridge Lithium-Boron Project in Nevada.

The clearing of this final key permitting hurdle now puts the company on a path towards a final investment decision, Canaccord Genuity notes, targeted for early 2025, followed by the commencement of project construction.

The project contains 3.2Mt LCE and is slated to produce 22ktpa of lithium carbonate and 170ktpa of boric acid, while sitting low on the cost curve.

Target rises to 40c from 35c, Buy retained.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.09
If INR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.54.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.35

Wilsons rates ((KAR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes Karoon Energy’s September quarter results showed stable production at 2.68mmboe, aligned with expectations, but sales revenue dropped by -32% on the previous quarter, due to lower volumes and pricing.

Guidance for 2024 production has narrowed to 10.510.8mmboe, with unit costs at US$13US$15bbl. 

The company reported a new US$25m buyback and cost reductions in capex reflect operational adjustments due to hurricane impacts in the Gulf of Mexico. 

Wilsons retains an Overweight rating and $2.64 target price.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $2.64 Current Price is $1.35 Difference: $1.285
If KAR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.25, suggesting upside of 65.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 38.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 53.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.7, implying annual growth of -8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEI    METEORIC RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MEI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Meteoric Resources’ Caldeira project has been selected for the Brazilian government’s development bank-backed investment platform which is designed to provide funding and other support to projects in a number of key sectors that contribute to Brazil’s sustainable development plans.

Canaccord Genuity notes Caldeira is the only mining project selected for the program, alongside other projects focused on biofuels, reforestation, green fertiliser, green hydrogen and green steel.

This is a significant positive for project funding in the broker’s view. Canaccord continues to see Caldeira as one of the few rare earth projects that can be funded in the current pricing cycle. Speculative Buy and 40c target retained.

This report was published on October 24, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.285
If MEI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 248% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.32, suggesting upside of 178.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.74

Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons observes increased proceeds from Maas Group’s capital recycling program, expected to exceed $100m in FY25.

The group’s FY25 guidance points to an EBITDA range of $215-$245m, though project delays are expected to result in a second-half earnings skew.

Management revealed at the AGM trading update construction materials division showed strong performance, while residential real estate is positioned for cyclical recovery.

The broker makes minimal forecast changes aside from a shift in earnings weighting to 2H25.

Target price lifts to $5.66 from $5.59 with unchanged Overweight rating.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $5.66 Current Price is $4.74 Difference: $0.92
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 28.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.69.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 37.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $17.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Northern Star Resources’ group sales of 394koz at a cost of $2,082/oz were broadly in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts. A soft quarter was anticipated with major mill shutdowns across all three hubs well flagged.

FY25 sales and cost guidance has been maintained. Canaccord has incorporated the Sep Q result, rolled its model forward and
moderately increased FY26 growth capex forecasts across all three hubs.

Target falls to $21.95 from $22.05, Buy retained.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $21.95 Current Price is $17.89 Difference: $4.06
If NST meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.55, suggesting downside of -1.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.6, implying annual growth of 93.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 174.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 122.8, implying annual growth of 14.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWS    NEWS CORPORATION

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $43.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((NWS)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs lifts News Corp’s target price to $52 from $48, retaining a Buy rating.

The broker expects better earnings from REA Group ((REA)), weaker revenue from Dow Jones and higher costs for FY25.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $52.00 Current Price is $43.45 Difference: $8.55
If NWS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $48.05, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.5, implying annual growth of 23.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXS    NEXT SCIENCE LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NXS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Next Science reported its Sep Q results, missing Canaccord Genuity’s expectations, noting a sales decline for the quarter and increasing balance sheet pressure.

The invigorated strategy into the durable medical equipment business initially surpassed the broker’s expectations, but is now starting to slow down, with revisions to the sales force not translating to increased sales.

XPerience has impressed in the past but also lagged in the last quarter. Canaccord maintains XP will require successful clinical outcomes to warrant longer-term commercial success.

Additional capital and flawless execution will be required from here in order to stay out of the woods in the medium term, the broker warns. Speculaitve Buy and 40c target retained.

This report was published on October 24, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.15 Difference: $0.25
If NXS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $13.64

Goldman Sachs rates ((PXA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs lifts Pexa Group’s target price to $16.20 from $15.70. Buy rating retained.

The broker expects stronger UK revenues to offset softer digital revenues.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $13.64 Difference: $2.56
If PXA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.87, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.6, implying annual growth of 36.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $229.84

Goldman Sachs rates ((REA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs reviews recent data points for classifieds coverage and concludes the data is positive “broadly” for REA Group and Seek ((SEK)) but negative for CAR Group ((CAR)).

The analyst highlights robust start to Australian property listings for FY25, while A&NZ job ads seem to be above Seek’s guidance. Goldman Sachs is now forecasting peak unemployment of 4.6% in June 2025.

Car dealers’ numbers remain under pressure with new car sales down -7% in 1Q25 which could impact on CAR Group.

Goldman Sachs believes REA Group is one of the best quality names it covers in the online media space.

Buy rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $245 from $223. 

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $245.00 Current Price is $229.84 Difference: $15.16
If REA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $234.43, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 215.00 cents and EPS of 405.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 431.5, implying annual growth of 88.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 238.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 485.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 509.9, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 282.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMD    RESMED INC

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $37.91

Wilsons rates ((RMD)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons’ first take on ResMed’s 1Q25 results was better-than-expected with revenue and EPS exceeding expectations by 4% and 7%, respectively.

The company saw robust device sales growth in the US, rising 11% and steady market share, supported by 10% growth in masks.

Revenue outside the US rose 11%, with non-GAAP EPS up 35% to US$2.20. 

The outlook remains positive, Wilsons states, although forecasts are under review due to continued strong (out)performance.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $40.25 Current Price is $37.91 Difference: $2.34
If RMD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.12, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 144.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.0, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RRL    REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.73

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RRL)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Regis Resources’ quarterly group production of 94.5koz was pre-reported and in line with Canaccord Genuity. Group costs of $2,495/oz were -5% below driven by lower costs at Tropicana. FY25 production guidance is maintained at 350-380koz at costs of $2,440-2,740/oz.

Regis noted that while guidance for McPhillamys expenditure has been updated, the project remains under review with the updated guide reflecting the cost to maintain the asset while work is undertaken to identify and evaluate an alternate location for the Tailings Storage Facility.

On incorporating the result and rolling its model forward, Canaccord’s target increases to $2.65 from $2.55 but the broker downgrades to Hold from Buy, while continuing to highlight Regis Resources’ strong free cash flow yields in FY25/26E of 10%/15%.

This report was published on October 24, 2024.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If RRL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting downside of -10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.1, implying annual growth of 28.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $24.76

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs reviews recent data points for classifieds coverage and concludes the data is positive “broadly” for REA Group ((REA)) and Seek but negative for CAR Group ((CAR)).

The analyst highlights robust start to Australian property listings for FY25, while A&NZ job ads seem to be above Seek’s guidance. Goldman Sachs is now forecasting peak unemployment of 4.6% in June 2025. 

Car dealers’ numbers remain under pressure with new car sales down -7% in 1Q25 which could impact on CAR Group.

Target price rises to $21.50 from $19.50. No change to Sell rating.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $24.76 Difference: minus $3.26 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.04, suggesting upside of 9.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 61.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.0, implying annual growth of 47.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.20

Wilsons rates ((STX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights the several significant recent announcements from Strike Energy bode well for its growth prospects.

The broker highlights possible EPA approval of the west Erregulla gas field while AGI operation midstream infrastructure approval is expected this quarter.

Are also highlighted: the Gas Sales Agreement with Wesfarmers ((WES)) subsidiary CSBP and application to AEMO for the award of capacity credits and network access, as well as the downgrade of South Erregulla reserves.

Macquarie Groups’s ((MQG)) refinancing of $153m funding package is yet another positive.

Overweight rating unchanged. Target price moves down to 31c from 33c.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.115
If STX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 47.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of 181.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of -22.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYA    SAYONA MINING LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SYA)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Sep Q production at the North American Lithium JV (Sayona Mining 75%) was mostly in line with Canaccord Genuity. The 5% improvement in output was driven mainly by higher plant utilisation and improved operating practices.

Cash costs were higher than forecast but excluding the impact of inventory movements, cash costs would have decreased by -15%. Sayona reported cash of $104m, higher than Canaccord’s estimated $84m.

The broker had been expecting a largely operating breakeven quarter, but the 21% higher realised price and adoption of a customer pre-payment facility helped deliver better than expected cash flow.

Target falls to 4.5c from 5c, Speculative Buy retained.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $0.05 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.01
If SYA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((SYA)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital  observes 3Q2024 production metrics at North American lithium saw improved utilisation at 91%, with spodumene output up 5% to 52.1kt, despite costs $1,335/t remaining above realised prices, $1,067/t.

Sayona Mining’s cash position increased to $104m, aided by inventory sales and prepayments, offsetting low lithium spot prices.

FY25 production guidance remains at 190-210kt, with costs projected at $1,150-1,300/t. Exploration at Tabba Tabba yielded no significant finds, but ongoing efforts target breakeven, the broker notes.

Buy rating with 14c target retained.

This report was published on October 25, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.105
If SYA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 300% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.75.

Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TCL    TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $13.06

Jarden rates ((TCL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes Transurban Group’s reaffirmation of FY25 distribution guidance at 65 cents per share at the AGM with notable strength in North American assets, traffic rising 6.5% year-on-year.

The West Gate Tunnel in Melbourne, expected by late 2025, is anticipated to drive traffic recovery.

Although no new concessions in Australia are likely until NSW toll reform discussions conclude, the broker notes ongoing brownfield expansion and US partnerships present growth opportunities.

Jarden’s EPS forecasts for FY25-27 have been modestly revised downward. Neutral rating unchanged. Target price falls to $12.30 from $12.40.

This report was published on October 22, 2024.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $13.06 Difference: minus $0.76 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.43, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 84.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.8, implying annual growth of 220.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 68.30 cents and EPS of 22.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 36.5, implying annual growth of 8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.39

Jarden rates ((VAU)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes updates in reserves and exploration value, particularly at Mt Monger’s Daisy Complex for Vault Minerals.

The report notes a decrease in open pit grades at King of The Hills following pit optimisation, but enhanced throughput of 6mtpa by FY26 could benefit economies of scale.

Key risks include operational execution and cost inflation. The EPS forecasts for FY25-27 have been revised upward

Overweight rating. Target price rises to 42c from 40c.

This report was published on October 23, 2024.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.03
If VAU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.48.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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