Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 28, 2024

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2M   ARX   ASG   BKW   EML   GQG   GTK (2)   KGN   LGL   LTR   PME   PNI   PYC   QAL   QBE   SMP   SNL   TAH   WEB   WTC  

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $5.71

Jarden rates ((A2M)) as Overweight (2) –

Management at A2 Milk Company upgraded FY25 revenue growth guidance to mid-to-high single digits, driven by stronger performance in its English label IMF sales and improved China label production levels, explains Jarden.

A dividend policy targeting a 60-80% payout of normalised profit was introduced, to be paid semi-annually, highlight the analysts. Sufficient cash for supply chain investments and other growth opportunities will be retained.

The first dividend is expected in February 2025.

Jarden retains an Overweight rating based on valuation support and management’s track record in achieving medium-term growth targets. Target rises to NZ$7.35 from NZ$7.25.

This report was published on November 25, 2024.

Current Price is $5.71. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $6.14, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARX    AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.69

Jarden rates ((ARX)) as Neutral (3) –

While Aroa Biosurgery’s 1H results missed Jarden’s expectations, the broker sees upside to management’s reiterated FY25 revenue and normalised earnings EBITDA guidance given favourable NZD/AUD currency movements.

The analysts highlight Myriad’s high-margin sales grew an impressive 45% in 1H25 versus the previous corresponding period, underpinned by Myriad active accounts growing to 265 from 218 six months ago.

Despite downgrades to earnings forecasts, the broker’s target rises to 75c form 71c on a valuation roll-forward. Neutral.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.06
If ARX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 187.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 93.88.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.86

Jarden rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Autosports Group’s inventories have stabilised, and new car margins are showing early signs of recovery, supporting a more optimistic earnings outlook.

1H25 guidance indicated normalised profit (PBT) of $28m, -30% below the broker’s forecast, driven by weaker new car margins, while used cars, services, and parts continue to grow.

Inventories have reached target levels, with margin improvement expected in 2H25, notes Jarden.

The analysts’ FY25 EPS forecast is reduced by -18.7%, while FY26 EPS is increased by 1.7%, reflecting long-term growth potential.

Jarden maintains an Overweight rating and raises the target price to $2.95 from $2.90.

This report was published on November 25, 2024.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $1.86 Difference: $1.085
If ASG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.33, suggesting upside of 22.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.40 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.1, implying annual growth of -23.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 32.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW    BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $26.81

Jarden rates ((BKW)) as Neutral (3) –

After attending the Brickworks AGM, the analysts at Jarden observe management has implemented cost controls to mitigate lower
volumes, while the company further progresses its property trust portfolio.

The 1Q trading update revealed weaker conditions across the core bricks/masonry businesses, highlights the broker. Building Products Australia revenues fell by -5% year-on-year, missing the 1H consensus forecast by -3%.

Jarden hints at potential structural challenges relating to material substitution as Building Products North American revenues fell by -12% year-on-year, significantly below the consensus expectation and underperformed the general market.

The target falls to $29.10 from $30. Neutral.

This report was published on November 28, 2024.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $26.81 Difference: $3.19
If BKW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.63, suggesting upside of 14.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 114.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 128.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 71.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.4, implying annual growth of 21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EML    EML PAYMENTS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.96

Wilsons rates ((EML)) as Overweight (1) –

Management at EML Payments has provided greater clarity into FY25 and a clear strategic pathway to FY28, according to Wilsons, though the broker cautions considerable work needs to be done to achieve the metrics and targets proposed.

For FY28, the company anticipates underlying earnings (EBITDA) and an earnings margin of around $95m and 35%, respectively, compared to the consensus forecasts of $70m and 28%.

The Overweight rating and $1.20 target are retained.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.96 Difference: $0.235
If EML meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.92.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GQG    GQG PARTNERS INC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.24

Jarden rates ((GQG)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden initiates coverage of GQG Partners with a Buy rating and a $3.30 target price.

GQG has achieved over 40% compound annual growth in funds under administration over the past five years, driven by strong net inflows. Net profit after tax has compounded at an average rate of over 50% during the same period.

Consensus estimates of net inflows at around 4%-5% for 2025-2026 appear both conservative and achievable.

Jarden highlights the company trades at an undemanding 9x 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio, well below its peers, which are experiencing net outflows.

Buy rated. Target $3.30.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Current Price is $2.24. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.19, suggesting upside of 38.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.36 cents and EPS of 22.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.13 cents and EPS of 26.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.4, implying annual growth of 13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTK    GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $11.81

Jarden rates ((GTK)) as Underweight (4) –

Following FY24 results for Gentrack Group, Jarden notes ongoing momentum with the 50% underlying revenue increase supported by a 102% lift in non-recurring revenues (NRR) and a 31% rise for annual recurring revenue (ARR).

The performance of Utilities was a highlight, in the broker’s opinion, due to the g2 platform upgrade at New Zealand-listed Genesis Energy and project work across the UK customer base on the back of regulatory change.

While management reiterated medium-term targets, the analyst suggest the lack of FY25 guidance creates some uncertainty.

The target rises to NZ$7.65 from $7.00. The Underweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on November 28, 2024.

Current Price is $11.81. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 55.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((GTK)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Following FY24 results, Wilsons raises its target for Gentrack Group by $1.00 to $12.50 and downgrades to Market Weight from Overweight on valuation.

The broker highlights ongoing momentum for both Energy and Water (B2B and B2C), despite market concerns heading into the result around non-recurring revenue (NRR) not replenishing.

Management’s medium-term guidance for ongoing growth and operating leverage remains.

The analysts understand the deal pipeline is deep and broad across both Energy and Water markets, with management seeking potential contract wins in both UK B2B Water (mid-sized opportunity) and in UK B2C Water.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $11.81 Difference: $0.69
If GTK meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.07, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 17.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 67.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 55.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $4.91

Jarden rates ((KGN)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden notes Kogan.com’s October trading update revealed 7.8% year-on-year revenue growth, decelerating from 15.6% in July, with gross profit margins of 38.9% exceeding consensus of 38.3%.

EBITDA and EBIT margins fell slightly short of the broker’s expectations for 1H25.

The analysts’ FY25 revenue forecasts are revised down by -3-4% due to weaker trading, while FY25 EPS is upgraded by 1%, reflecting near-term margin improvements.

FY26-27 earnings estimates are downgraded by -4%, with the broker citing slower revenue growth and operating deleverage.

Jarden highlights risks including increasing competition from Amazon and Temu, subscription growth challenges, and ongoing governance concerns.

The broker retains an Underweight rating and lowers the target price to $4.55 from $4.70.

This report was published on November 25, 2024.

Target price is $4.55 Current Price is $4.91 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.23, suggesting upside of 4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.5, implying annual growth of 28025.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LGL    LYNCH GROUP HOLDING LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $1.75

Jarden rates ((LGL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden implements medium-term earnings downgrades due to ongoing weakness in Chinese pricing.

The AGM trading update indicated 1H25 revenue is expected to rise 5% year-on-year, with stable margins in Australia but weaker margins in China from a -5% decline in average selling prices.

Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance, forecasting $80-$87m in product revenue and $16-$17m in underlying earnings (EBITDA).

Jarden reduces FY25 earnings forecasts for Australia and China by -4% and -24%, respectively, anticipating margin compression in Australia and potential recovery in China in 2H25.

The broker’s forecasts for FY26 and FY27 are also lowered by -8-14% due to slower recovery expectations in China. An Overweight rating is maintained, and the target is reduced to $1.80 from $1.90.

This report was published on November 25, 2024.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.05
If LGL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 12.07 cents and EPS of 24.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.08.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.78

Wilsons rates ((LTR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons lowers its target price for Liontown Resources to $1.40 from $1.75, reflecting a -10% downgrade to earnings forecasts over the next few years due to updated production and cost guidance for Kathleen Valley.

The revised mine plan focuses on near-term cash flow by targeting high-margin material, reducing spodumene production forecasts by -13% annually through FY30, notes the broker.

Management highlighted strong progress in the September quarter, with production volumes of 28kt SC6 at 5.2% Li2O grade and stockpiling 310kt of clean ore.

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating, citing long-term upside and potential free cash flow yields exceeding 25% as market conditions improve.

This report was published on November 26, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.78 Difference: $0.625
If LTR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 81% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.83, suggesting upside of 8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 40.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $228.41

Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs raises the Pro Medicus target price by 14.5% to $221, reflecting an upgrade in earnings forecasts.

The company announced a new five-year contract upgrade worth $24m with NYU Langone Health, which will see Visage Open Archive rolled out across its radiology business alongside the current Viewer and Workflow.

This includes six major hospitals and community/outpatient imaging centres. NYU’s on-premise system will transition to the cloud.

The broker believes this exemplifies the potential to upsell the shift to the cloud to “Viewer-only” customers, with Visage being the only solution in the market fully deployable to the cloud, giving Pro Medicus a market advantage.

Goldman Sachs expects earnings growth of 29% and 31% for FY25 and FY26, respectively. Buy rated. Target $221.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $221.00 Current Price is $228.41 Difference: minus $7.41 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $134.10, suggesting downside of -42.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 213.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.7, implying annual growth of 29.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 225.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 167.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.7, implying annual growth of 32.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 170.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI    PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $23.16

Jarden rates ((PNI)) as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) –

Jarden initiates coverage of Pinnacle Investment Management with a Hold rating and a $22.60 target price.

The broker views Pinnacle’s business structure, affiliates, and management team as being of the highest quality, with a strong track record of annual net inflows averaging growth over 15% of funds under administration over the past five years.

However, Pinnacle is the most expensive global asset manager compared to a list of approximately 30 public and private asset management peers.

The analyst highlights potential downside risks to FY26 earnings, as consensus assumes “elevated net inflows” will be sustained.

Neutral rated. Target price $22.40.

This report was published on November 26, 2024.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $23.16 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If PNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $22.54, suggesting downside of -4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.90 cents and EPS of 54.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.4, implying annual growth of 20.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 59.40 cents and EPS of 65.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.7, implying annual growth of 29.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PYC    PYC THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $2.00

Wilsons rates ((PYC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights strong preclinical results for PYC Therapeutics’ PYC-003 as a potential treatment for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD).

The IND-enabling studies demonstrated safety, precise targeting, and high activity, enabling low, infrequent dosing, highlights the broker.

A clean safety profile with no observable adverse effects and clear efficacy in 3D kidney cyst models supports the drug’s potential, in the analyst’s view.

Wilsons views PYC-003 as a differentiated candidate within the PPMO drug class, offering significant long-term upside if the development program progresses successfully. The $3.90 target price and Overweight rating are reaffirmed.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $2.00 Difference: $1.9
If PYC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 95% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 222.22.

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAL    QUALITAS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.60

Jarden rates ((QAL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden initiates coverage of Qualitas with a Buy rating and a $3.75 target price.

Qualitas is a private credit manager with approximately 80% of its funds under management invested in residential property.

Management has committed to doubling funds under management to $18bn by FY28. The broker forecasts $17.9bn, including $1.8bn in funds raised and annual fundraising of around $2.5bn over FY26-FY28.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $1.15
If QAL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.41.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $19.76

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

QBE Insurance’s 3Q24 trading update suggests the insurer’s combined operating ratio improved by around 50bps on Goldman Sachs’ estimate.

The analyst notes 2024 year-to-date group rate increases are tracking ahead of inflation, and perils are tracking “favourably” below the 2024 allowance of US$105m.

The Buy rating is retained, with the broker highlighting valuation appeal at around 11.5x FY25 earnings. The target price remains unchanged at $20.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $19.76 Difference: $0.24
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.57, suggesting upside of 2.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 159.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 173.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 179.3, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMP    SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.54

Wilsons rates ((SMP)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons lowers its target for SmartPay to $1.32 from $1.66, reflecting reduced medium-term earnings expectations and higher operational costs.

1H25 results showed a -25% earnings (EBITDA) miss, driven by a 43% rise in headcount and a 64% increase in marketing expenses.

Revenue from the Australian Acquiring segment reached NZ$41.5m, while the New Zealand Acquiring launch contributed NZ$9m in pre-sales revenue and NZ$3-$3.5m in gross profit.

The analysts highlight potential RBA regulatory impacts, which could reduce Australian acquiring revenue by -6-10%, but note offsetting growth from NZ Acquiring and improved operational efficiency by FY27.

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating, observing the current share price reflects limited domestic growth potential and no upside from New Zealand Acquiring.

This report was published on November 26, 2024.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.78
If SMP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 144% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 83.98.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.27.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SNL    SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $30.84

Goldman Sachs rates ((SNL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs observes 1H25 guidance from Supply Network, implying strong sales growth of 17%, exceeding the historical norm of 14%.

Management guided to 29% growth in net profit, excluding property sales of $400k, the analyst notes.

The broker maintains a Buy rating with a $30.50 target price. No changes to earnings forecasts.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $30.84 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If SNL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.89.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 105.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.37.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH    TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.54

Jarden rates ((TAH)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes Tabcorp’s 3Q update reflected continued softness in wagering turnover, with racing turnover down -8% year-on-year but partially offset by positive yield growth due to improved industry discipline and higher-margin multis.

The broker reduces FY25 EBITDA forecasts by -7.5% to $358m reflecting lower racing turnover and increased operational expenses following the Victorian licence contribution. Media revenues are expected to decline by -5% year-on-year due to weaker racing turnover.

Management is expected to announce organisational restructuring before year-end, which Jarden believes could unlock further value through better cost control and asset utilisation.

The Overweight rating and 65c target are maintained. While Tabcorp’s Australian wagering turnover continues to decline, it has turned a corner from a profitability perspective, highlights the broker.

This report was published on November 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.11
If TAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting downside of -2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 3.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of 100.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WEB    WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $4.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((WEB)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes Web Travel reported 1H25 results ahead of expectations, with total transaction value growing 25% year-on-year, though earnings fell by -8%.

The broker believes management explained the factors behind a significant decline in revenue margins for WebBeds, which dropped to 6.6% in 1H25 from 8.1% the previous year.

Management emphasised the scalability of the WebBeds business and expressed confidence in achieving 50% earnings margins from FY26, compared to previous guidance of 46%.

Goldman Sachs reiterates a Buy rating with a higher target price of $7, up from $6.70.

This report was published on November 27, 2024.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $2.2
If WEB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting upside of 13.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.9, implying annual growth of 5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WTC    WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $124.94

Jarden rates ((WTC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden revises estimates for WiseTech Global following its FY25 guidance downgrade, citing a delay in the commercial launch of the Container Transport Optimisation module. The delay is expected to shift some revenue and profit into FY26.

Revenue guidance for FY25 is reduced to $1,200-$1,300m, down -6% at the midpoint, while earnings (EBITDA) guidance is cut to $600-$660m, representing a -7% downgrade.

The broker lowers FY25 revenue and EBITDA forecasts by -4% and -7%, respectively, with NPATA reduced by -8% to $381m. FY26 NPATA is also lowered by -4% but still reflects strong growth of 41%.

Jarden raises the target price to $116 from $101, citing long-term earnings upgrades and a lower risk-free rate, while maintaining a Neutral rating.

This report was published on November 25, 2024.

Target price is $116.00 Current Price is $124.94 Difference: minus $8.94 (current price is over target).
If WTC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $139.79, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.70 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 110.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 112.6, implying annual growth of 41.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 112.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 158.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 79.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.1, implying annual growth of 43.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 78.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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