Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 13-06-25

This story features METCASH LIMITED, and other companies.
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Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday June 9 to Friday June 13, 2025
Total Upgrades: 4
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.65%; Hold 31.97%; Sell 6.38%

In the week ending Friday, June 13, 2025, FNArena tracked four upgrades and six downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Beach Energy received two ratings downgrades from separate brokers.

Shares have rallied by around 10% since the company released quarterly results in April, but Morgans last week warned earnings remain vulnerable ahead of the June quarter result, given likely consensus downgrades and already weak sentiment.

With Waitsia Stage 2 in the Perth Basin now in a critical commissioning phase, despite consensus expecting full production by September, and Cooper Basin operations disrupted by severe fourth-quarter flooding, the broker cut its target to $1.36 from $1.55 and downgraded its rating to Hold from Accumulate.

UBS also downgraded Beach to Neutral from Buy, trimming its target to $1.35 from $1.40, citing elevated risks of further commissioning delays at the Waitsia gas plant.

Among covered Energy names, this broker now ranks Beach Energy behind Santos (top pick) and Woodside Energy in order of preference.

On a more positive note, UBS highlighted Beach’s strong balance sheet, giving the Board flexibility to exceed its stated dividend policy.

Morgans also sees room for a valuation recovery, contingent on improved production delivery and a resilient earnings base, should near-term risks abate.

Turning to average target prices and earnings forecasts, here the tables below show rises and falls were broadly even last week.

After announcing the closure of loss-making Jetstar Asia, Qantas Airways received an around 8% lift in average target from brokers, with Macquarie suggesting the move will generate additional earnings before interest and tax of around $47m by FY27.

Flights will be shut down as of July 31, impacting 16 intra-Asia routes, but will not affect Jetstar Airways international flights from Australia to Asia or the Japanese business.

Some aircraft will be re-deployed to higher-return markets in A&NZ, freeing up to $500m in capital and supporting broader fleet renewal initiatives, highlighted Morgans.

Management also reiterated FY25 and FY26 capex guidance, with some of the capex benefits expected to flow through over FY27 and FY28. Post covid, it’s felt the airline is better equipped to manage its international network and improve return on capital employed.

Online furniture and homewares retailer Temple & Webster and Catapult International (sports technology) were next with rises in average targets of around 6% apiece.

Ord Minnett raised its target for Temple & Webster to $20 from $14 after reviewing its financial model, but retained a Sell rating due to valuation concerns.

The company has proven its business model, suggested the analyst, whereby manufacturers and suppliers ship directly to Temple & Webster customers, obviating the need to hold inventory of furniture and homewares.

Regarding the Sell rating, here Ord Minnett explained Temple & Webster remains a relatively minor player in the business-to-business (B2B) and home improvement segments, which are expected to contribute less than $50m in revenue in FY25.

The broker believes the market is pricing in substantial growth in these categories, despite limited evidence of successful expansion among domestic or international peers. Moreover, assumptions around maintaining margins at scale and facing limited competitive pressure are viewed as optimistic and unlikely to hold in practice.

Following the recent acquisition of US-based Perch for initial consideration of -US$18m, Bell Potter raised its target for Catapult by $1.00 to $6.00. The increase was partly due to higher earnings forecasts and a higher assumed valuation multiple due to the large cross-sell opportunity via Perch, as well as the ongoing rally in the technology sector.

Perch is a “next generation leader in athlete monitoring in the gym for elite teams” and will fit into or enhance Catapult’s Performance & Health (P&H) or Wearables vertical, in the broker’s opinion.

Zip Co also had a good week, heading up the earnings upgrade table below, after management raised FY25 cash earnings guidance to $160m from $153m, due to a stronger-than-expected US performance in both April and May.

During these months Zip generated 40% year-on-year growth in Total Transaction Volume (TTV). Despite accelerating customer acquisition, Citi noted credit performance remained steady, which is expected to support re-investment in marketing to drive further growth.

Lower fuel prices and interest rate cuts could deliver a further 5-10% earnings uplift, forecasts UBS, with each -25bps cut estimated to add around $5m to earnings.

The appearance of Life360 in the positive tables for earnings and target below should largely be ignored as averages were impacted by Ord Minnett’s decision to cease coverage due to a departing analyst.

Morgan Stanley noted last week management had taken advantage of compelling capital market conditions, rather than an immediate need/opportunity to deploy significant capital, in issuing US$320m of convertible notes due June 2030.

The notes have a 0% coupon and are convertible if the stock trades above US$80.97 per share (closing price of US$61.09 last Friday).  After further hedging, the share price would need to reach US$122.22 to trigger any dilution, explained the broker, which would likely be proactively managed.

On the flipside, Coronado Global Resources appears atop the tables for negative change to earnings and target.

To alleviate immediate working capital risks during the current weaker coal price environment, and while costs remain elevated, management has announced measures to improve its cash liquidity position by up to US$400m.

In addition to the previously announced US$100m cost reduction target throughout 2025, the company recently entered a binding agreement with Oaktree Capital Management to refinance its US$150m Asset Based Lending facility.

Last week, management also agreed with Stanwell Corporation to provide a liquidity benefit of up to US$150m through a thermal coal pre-payment and rebate deferral.

According to Bell Potter, unless coal prices improve materially, Coronado may need to implement additional liquidity measures over the coming quarters. The broker’s target was cut to 19c from 23c, and a Speculative Hold rating was kept.

Macquarie (Neutral) lowered its target price by- 24% to 19c, partly reflecting a weakened earnings outlook and a higher cost of debt.

Last week, footwear and apparel retailer Accent Group’s average FY25 earnings forecast in the FNArena database fell by -5% after management guided to FY25 earnings (EBIT) of $108-118m, a -17-19% miss against the consensus forecast of $133m.

Management noted “Low overall growth in the lifestyle footwear market from March to early June has impacted sales in both the retail and wholesale segments”.

While lowering its target to $2.10 from $2.60, Bell Potter kept a Buy rating, expect a monetary policy led recovery into the backend of 2025 to support FY26 performance.

The analysts anticipate a higher growth focus, leveraging the outperforming sports segment via global partner and key shareholder, UK-based Frasers Group.

Perennial disappointer Domino’s Pizza Enterprises was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley. It’s thought a shift in consumers’ perception of value within the quick service restaurant (QSR) space is causing structural headwinds to build for traditional players.

The customer is trending toward healthier options, convenience (sometimes via Uber Eats), and enhanced digital experiences, notes the broker. It’s thought some QSR operators with more sophisticated apps and loyalty programs are gaining a competitive advantage.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.65% of the total, versus 31.97% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.38%.

Upgrade

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Macquarie raises its target for Metcash by 40 cents to $3.70 and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral after FY25 hardware earnings (EBIT) guidance (via a trading update) came in around 4% ahead of expectations.

This outcome alleviates concerns for the analyst around segment de-leverage and marks a likely trough in earnings.

The broker expects the merger of IHG and Total Tools to deliver medium-to long-term upside through improved cost control, stronger supplier terms, and cross-brand integration. For the short-term, the earnings impact is expected to be limited.

Hardware recovery is anticipated, supported by improving housing approvals, commencements, and home sales, alongside expectations of three further RBA rate cuts in 2025.

QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Qantas Airways has announced the closure of Jetstar Asia, citing unsustainable supplier cost increases, high airport charges, and intensifying competition.

Jetstar Asia is expected to post a -$35m EBIT loss in FY25, with -$25m of this occurring in H2, notes Morgans. Qantas anticipates one-off closure costs of around -$175m, mostly incurred in FY26.

Aircraft from Jetstar Asia will be redeployed to higher-return markets in A&NZ, freeing up to $500m in capital and supporting broader fleet renewal initiatives, highlights Morgans.

The broker views the absence of formal FY25 guidance as an indication Qantas is broadly comfortable with consensus expectations. 

Morgans leaves FY25 forecasts largely unchanged but lifts FY26 and FY27 profit (NPBT) forecasts by 4% on lower fuel assumptions, noting an additional 5-10% upside if spot prices persist.

The target price increases to $10.80 from $9.40 and the broker upgrades its rating to Hold from Trim.

REDOX LIMITED ((RDX)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Ord Minnett upgrades Redox to Accumulate from Hold on valuation grounds, with a new target price of $2.68 from $2.85.

In response to an ASX query about the share price last week, the company cited “broader macro uncertainty”, with a lack of confidence in the Australian economy post the 1Q25 GDP print, the analyst details.

Lower confidence levels and activity levels in the domestic economy have led Ord Minnett to reduce earnings estimates by around -6% for FY25 and -5% for both FY26/F27.

The macroeconomic impacts are viewed by the broker as cyclical rather than structural issues for the company.

SEEK LIMITED ((SEK)) Re-initiation of coverage with Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 7/0/0

After around six years, Citi has re-initiated coverage of Seek with a Buy rating, but with a downside view in the short term. Target price is $28.50.

The broker compares the company’s AI use to REA Group ((REA)) and Car Group ((CAR)), noting it is ahead in its use to improve product offering and customer experience.

The analyst is forecasting the ad-tier model to accelerate yield growth with a 10% forecast for FY26, higher than the company’s high-single digit forecast.

While rate cuts are a positive, other leading indicators are mixed, and the broker expects volume recovery to come only in 2H26.

In Asia, the broker expects growth to be weighed down by freemium roll-out in Hong Kong and Malaysia, but to pick up over the medium term.

The broker’s FY25 revenue forecast is in line with consensus, but -2% below for FY26.

Downgrade

BEACH ENERGY LIMITED ((BPT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/5/2

UBS lowers its target price for Beach Energy to $1.35 from $1.40 and downgrades the rating to Neutral from Buy due to softer domestic gas price forecasts and limited near-term catalysts.

The broker feels recent share price gains have priced in a timely ramp-up at Waitsia. Balance is also now seen between upside from rising East coast gas prices and downside from potential delays and softer domestic demand.

Over 40% of Beach’s East coast gas is uncontracted from FY26, creating leverage to future price rises, note the analysts. However, the broker’s FY26-27 East coast gas price assumptions are lowered by -5-6% due to delays in LNG import terminal commissioning.

UBS also flags commissioning risks for the Waitsia Gas Plant despite fuel gas being introduced in May, and sees no further discount priced into shares for delays.

Cost guidance remains unchanged, and production expectations for FY26-27 are steady, notes UBS.

Morgans lowers its target for Beach Energy to $1.36 from $1.55 and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate ahead of June quarter results, citing near-term risks which could lead to consensus downgrades.

The broker sees the market as overly optimistic on both the timeline for the Waitsia Stage 2 ramp-up and production recovery in the Cooper Basin. For the latter, flooding has impacted operations more significantly than consensus reflects.

While the introduction of first fuel gas at Waitsia occurred in mid-May, Bell Potter expects nameplate production won’t be achieved until November, assuming a smooth 10-12 week commissioning phase and further ramp-up.

CETTIRE LIMITED ((CTT)) Downgrade to Speculative Sell from Speculative Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/0/2

Cettire delivered FY25 to-date revenue of $693.8m, up 1.7% year-on-year, but with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of just $0.5m, well below consensus at $7.8m, notes Bell Potter.

April-May trading was notably weaker, observe the analysts, with sales down -21% year-on-year and an adjusted -$6.9m earnings loss, including -$2m in currency losses. Cash fell to $45m from $76m at the end of the third quarter.

The broker downgrades its earnings forecasts, now expecting a -20% revenue decline in the June quarter and only modest growth of 3-12% over FY26-27.

A return to EBITDA profitability is now expected in the third quarter of FY26, one quarter later than the analysts had previously anticipated.

Bell Potter cuts its price target to 28c from 47.5c and downgrades to Speculative Sell from Speculative Hold.

DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/6/0

Morgan Stanley notes Domino’s Pizza Enterprises’ failed to meet its same-store sales outlook of 3-6% growth over FY22-24 and is set to miss it once again in FY25.

The broker now considers the underperformance as a structural shift rather than a post-covid reconfiguration.

As a result, the analyst has lowered its medium-term same-store sales and network growth forecasts to 1-3%. This led to a downgrade to FY26-29 top-line growth forecasts to an average 3.4% from 5.4% before.

For the longer term, the broker cut top-line growth forecasts to 3.5% from 4.0%. Rating downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight. Target cut to $24.

JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED ((JLG)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Management at Johns Lyng has received a non-binding indicative proposal from Pacific Equity Partners to acquire 100% of shares in the company, with both parties entering into an exclusivity period to undertake due diligence.

Separately, Johns Lyng’s 1H25 result was weaker-than-expected by Morgans, with group revenue missing the analyst’s forecast by -6% and earnings (EBITDA) coming -18% below. The interim dividend of 2.5c was also lower than the broker’s 4.2c forecast.

Management cut FY25 earnings guidance by -5% which implies to the broker a 2H recovery in business as usual (BAU) earnings.

Based on the company’s update, Morgans expects improved revenue momentum from recent surge events in NSW and Queensland. 

In the US, volumes are expected to increase with a new client onboarding and work related to LA wildfires but it is still expected to fall short of the company’s FY25 target of 10-15% revenue growth, highlights the broker.

WAGNERS HOLDING CO. LIMITED ((WGN)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Morgans expects heavy rainfall across South East Queensland in March to moderately impact Wagners Holding Co’s 2H25 earnings, with Brisbane recording 461mm in the month, more than double the 10-year average.

The broker has revised its FY25 EPS forecast down by -8%, while FY26 and FY27 are adjusted by -1% and 0% respectively.

The analyst explains maintenance in January and a concentration of public holidays will act as an additional drag on near-term performance.

Morgans views the cement market as stabilising, supported by recent price rises and improved discipline across the industry.

The broker raises its target price to $2.10 from $2.00 due to a higher assumed multiple (reflecting longer-term optimism around Brisbane Olympics-related infrastructure spend), and downgrades to an Accumulate rating from Buy.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=207,145,183,102,239,242,172,133&h0=124,135,160,109,179,142,26,177&s0=14,26,33,41,20,29,4,32″ style=”border:1px solid #000000;”>

Broker Rating

Order Company New Rating Old Rating Broker Upgrade 1 METCASH LIMITED Buy Neutral Macquarie 2 QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED Neutral Neutral Morgans 3 REDOX LIMITED Buy Neutral Ord Minnett 4 SEEK LIMITED Buy Sell Citi Downgrade 5 BEACH ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Neutral Morgans 6 BEACH ENERGY LIMITED Neutral Buy UBS 7 CETTIRE LIMITED Sell Neutral Bell Potter 8 DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED Neutral Buy Morgan Stanley 9 JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED Neutral Neutral Morgans 10 WAGNERS HOLDING CO. LIMITED Buy Buy Morgans

Target Price

Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs 1 QAN QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED 10.700 9.890 8.19% 6 2 TPW TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED 18.950 17.808 6.41% 6 3 CAT CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 5.900 5.567 5.98% 3 4 360 LIFE360 INC 31.630 30.120 5.01% 3 5 MTS METCASH LIMITED 3.790 3.610 4.99% 5 6 SUN SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED 21.930 21.155 3.66% 6 7 ZIP ZIP CO LIMITED 3.167 3.067 3.26% 3 8 HSN HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED 6.783 6.663 1.80% 3 9 ASX ASX LIMITED 65.400 64.450 1.47% 6 10 TLC LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED 5.575 5.508 1.22% 6

Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New Target Previous Target Change Recs 1 CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC 0.180 0.210 -14.29% 5 2 DMP DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED 27.287 29.953 -8.90% 6 3 AX1 ACCENT GROUP LIMITED 2.332 2.432 -4.11% 5 4 BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED 1.354 1.389 -2.52% 7 5 RDX REDOX LIMITED 3.460 3.517 -1.62% 3 6 PWH PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED 8.263 8.388 -1.49% 4 7 CKF COLLINS FOODS LIMITED 9.683 9.783 -1.02% 6 8 FFM FIREFLY METALS LIMITED 1.683 1.700 -1.00% 3 9 SDR SITEMINDER LIMITED 6.333 6.382 -0.77% 6 10 GQG GQG PARTNERS INC 2.854 2.874 -0.70% 5

Earnings Forecast

Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs 1 ZIP ZIP CO LIMITED 3.000 1.967 52.52% 3 2 360 LIFE360 INC 73.606 59.273 24.18% 3 3 TPW TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED 9.680 9.400 2.98% 6 4 BKW BRICKWORKS LIMITED 122.560 121.083 1.22% 5 5 SEK SEEK LIMITED 41.763 41.416 0.84% 7 6 MTS METCASH LIMITED 25.100 24.900 0.80% 5 7 EVN EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED 53.554 53.265 0.54% 7 8 ASX ASX LIMITED 263.820 262.420 0.53% 6 9 JLG JOHNS LYNG GROUP LIMITED 14.960 14.900 0.40% 5 10 GQG GQG PARTNERS INC 24.287 24.202 0.35% 5

Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers Order Symbol Company New EF Previous EF Change Recs 1 CRN CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC -27.725 -24.819 -11.71% 5 2 AX1 ACCENT GROUP LIMITED 12.860 13.560 -5.16% 5 3 GYG GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED 12.000 12.333 -2.70% 3 4 RDX REDOX LIMITED 15.033 15.433 -2.59% 3 5 SDR SITEMINDER LIMITED -5.067 -4.940 -2.57% 6 6 HSN HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED 19.067 19.450 -1.97% 3 7 CAT CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED -2.724 -2.672 -1.95% 3 8 DMP DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED 127.500 129.700 -1.70% 6 9 PWH PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED 10.025 10.150 -1.23% 4 10 CKF COLLINS FOODS LIMITED 37.520 37.920 -1.05% 6

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