Weekly Reports | Sep 29 2025
This story features CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CQR
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday September 22 to Friday September 26, 2025
Total Upgrades: 5
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.29%; Hold 32.03%; Sell 8.67%
For the week ending Friday, September 26, 2025, FNArena tracked five upgrades and five downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
The size of percentage rises in average target prices outweighed reductions for the fifth week in a row.
The opposite was true for average earnings forecasts led by lithium miners IGO Ltd, PMET Resources, and Liontown Resources which appear first, third and fourth on the week’s table for negative change to earnings estimates.
Forecasts were dragged lower after UBS reduced its lithium price forecasts following feedback indicating Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Limited’s (CATL’s) outage will be shorter than expected.
It is now believed CATL’s Jianxiawo mine, which accounts for around 5% of global supply, could secure licence updates and restart operations within three-to-four months, compared with prior expectations of six-to-twelve months.
Macquarie agreed, suggesting the market may have previously overreacted.
Across 2025-26, the UBS spodumene price forecasts were cut by between -7-12% and lithium chemical prices by -4-10%, reflecting greater than previously assumed Chinese supply. Lithium prices are now expected to rise sequentially by between 17-32% in 2026.
Macquarie noted lithium prices rebounded in August, after falling -17% in the first half of the year, regaining momentum following a near-continuous 24-month decline since mid-2023.
This broker sees emerging signs of a new lithium cycle, underpinned by a widening gap between supply and demand.
IGO Ltd and Pilbara Minerals are Macquarie’s preferred lithium producer exposures while Sayona Mining and Liontown Resources also offer leverage to lithium price upside.
Liontown Resources also released its FY25 results last week. Net profit missed prior forecasts by Macquarie and consensus by -33% and -88%, respectively, due to higher depreciation and amortisation, higher net interest charges, and a write-down of non-cash inventory.
Ord Minnett views FY26 as a transition year for Liontown with the finalisation of open-pit mining by December and a transition to 100% underground operations.
The average target for Liontown rose, after UBS reinstated coverage following a period of research restriction with a new target set at 80c, up from 50c previously, after the broker factored in its latest lithium price forecast changes plus the completion of a $372m equity raising in late-August.
Both the average earnings forecast and average target for Telix Pharmaceuticals fell last week, appearing second on the lists below.
Telix has received US Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ transitional approval from October 1 for pass-through pricing of Gozellix, a second-generation prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) PET imaging agent.
This outcome provides a reimbursement advantage versus lower-priced F-18 PET competitors like Pylarify and Posluma, explained UBS. These are other PSMA-targeted imaging agents used in PET scans, but they are labelled with Fluorine-18 (F-18) isotopes rather than Gallium-68.
A transitional pass through permits a separate payment in addition to payment for imaging in outpatients, explained Morgan Stanley.
Bell Potter agreed with UBS the announcement was a competitive win in the PSMA imaging market and provides relief following a difficult year marked by two complete response letters from the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued when the agency cannot approve a drug or product in its current form.
FY25 revenue guidance remains intact, though analysts at UBS expect third-quarter sales to soften.
Bell Potter highlighted the Zircaix opportunity, one of Telix’s radiopharmaceutical imaging agents in development, and maintained a Buy rating with a $23 target price.
Vault Minerals and SiteMinder also received reduced average earnings forecasts.
Early in the week, gold producer Vault Minerals released a new three-year plan pointing to rising gold production and a pivot for free cash flow as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/09/25/vaults-cash-flow-potential-under-appreciated/
SiteMinder’s investor day reinforced Ord Minnett’s view the current share price reflects little value for potential upside from Channels Plus and Dynamic Revenue Plus.
Industry feedback over 18 months suggested to the broker Channels Plus could disrupt hotel distribution by streamlining rate and room management across online travel agents.
While Dynamic Revenue Plus has transformational potential, the analysts added achieving cost-effective scale remains a hurdle, though the outlined go-to-market strategy provided some reassurance.
Morgan Stanley highlighted hotels’ under-monetisation and SiteMinder’s 50,000 customer base, cross-sell potential, and proprietary data. Monetisation is just 0.3% of gross booking value versus 1.5% if all products were adopted.
This broker also pointed to momentum behind annual recurring revenue, with FY26 growth guided in line with the 27% achieved in FY25, alongside margin gains in earnings and free cash flow.
Risk in the near term for SiteMinder, according to Citi, is a slower-than-expected revenue ramp-up for Channels Plus, which is still in the scaling phase.
Strike Energy received the largest fall (down nearly-14%) in average target from brokers last week after Macquarie lowered its near-term EPS estimates for FY27 and FY28 by -29% and -39%, respectively, on reduced production estimates for the company’s Walyering gas field in the Perth Basin.
Management has been re-basing reserves/resource estimates across its portfolio, including Walyering 2P gas reserves, down -55% and Ocean Hill, down -41%. The analyst has lowered its EP469 forecast gross production to 572PJ from 700PJ, including Erregulla Deep.
The 85MW gas peaker plant is expected to commence in late-2026, with management contemplating an expansion of 15MW.
After a period of research restriction, the analyst resumed with a 10c target, down from 19c, reflecting both the Walyering downgrade and a recent $84m equity raise at 12c.
On the flipside, gold miner Persius Mining’s average target rose nearly 7%, coming in second behind Liontown Resources, after Citi raised its FY26 sector earnings forecasts by 20-30% on higher gold price assumptions. Changes resulted in higher target prices for stocks under the broker’s coverage.
The December quarter forecast increased by US$200/oz to US$3,700/oz, while the 2026 estimated average rose to US$3,250/oz, up US$500/oz.
Long-term real prices are now set at US$2,500/oz from US$2,200/oz, while Citi also increased its long-term equity model pricing to US$2,600/oz from US$2,300/oz, in line with consensus.
EPS momentum versus consensus remains positive, explained the analysts, with equities yet to fully reflect spot pricing as seen in prior cycles.
It’s noted gold miners have expanded margins, are showing no appetite for potentially value-destructive M&A activity, and are generating around $11bn of positive free cash flow in the current cycle, compared to around -$16bn burnt between 2000-2013.
Citi’s preferred ASX100 pick remains Evolution Mining, supported by organic growth options, high-quality long-life assets, consistent operational delivery, and copper exposure. Outside the ASX100, a Buy rating is maintained on Greatland Resources.
Average earnings forecasts by brokers for copper miners Aurelia Metals and AIC Mines also increased materially last week.
Shaw and Partners explained 2025 has been all about strong demand colliding with fragile supply, with geopolitics adding plenty of volatility.
Prices have jumped around on tariff headlines, but the analysts note fundamentals remain tight with inventories at historic lows.
Fresh demand from AI data centres and resource nationalism is expected to build on the electrification trend, further strengthening the bullish outlook.
With costs climbing, discoveries scarce, and higher standards slowing new projects, Shaw believes copper prices will need to rise a lot further to unlock fresh supply.
Shaw is sticking with its Buy, High Risk rating and 42c target for Aurelia Metals, after management displayed strong execution and discipline in meeting FY25 production and cost guidance across gold, copper, zinc, and lead. Aurelia is seen to offer a good entry into a diversified producer with growth on the horizon.
On AIC Mines, Shaw highlights leverage to the Australian dollar copper price, supported by steady production and a fully funded growth pipeline.
Shaw sees this company becoming a meaningful ASX copper producer. Buy, High Risk rating and 75c target maintained.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.29% of the total, versus 32.03% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.67%.
Upgrade
CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0
Macquarie has increased valuation and target price for the majority of its listed property sector coverage on stronger income fundamentals, together with improved access to and cost of capital.
Weighted average cap rate assumptions lowered by -25bps to -50bps across retail, office, and industrial, reflecting tighter spreads to bonds.
The broker notes commercial real estate transactions rose 19.1% y/y to $28.7bn in the year to June, with retail the standout, up 56% y/y.
The broker highlights equity inflow in some sectors beat expectations, with Charter Hall a good example, raising $1.75bn (with more demand) when it was seeking $300m.
The broker updated the spread to bonds for Charter Hall Retail REIT to a modest +6bps expansion, compared with the +31bps widening previously assumed.
Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target rises to $4.41 from $4.12 (was $3.91 on August 19).
GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0
GWSCF and GWOF are both unlisted wholesale property funds managed by GPT Group.
Macquarie reviewed the ASIC lodged accounts and constitution for both which provided details of the GWSCF revised fee structure and liquidity terms.
GWSCF adopts a tiered fee structure from January 2025 and plans to raise up to $500m equity, creating around $620m acquisition capacity at 30% gearing, highlights the broker.
The analyst warns GWOF’s modernised terms risk GPT Group’s earnings via lower fees and reduced gross asset value (GAV) from asset sales, assuming a -37.5bps fee cut from December 2026, and 30% GAV redemptions.
Macquarie cuts its target price to $5.67 from $5.77 on lower assumed funds multiples and retains an Outperform rating.
PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED ((PEN)) Upgrade to Buy, High Risk from Hold by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 1/0/0
Peninsula Energy achieved first U308 production at the Lance Project and conducted a successful $70m equity raise.
Shaw and Partners believes the project is positioned to become the largest source of domestic uranium in the US and thus a highly strategic asset for nuclear fuel security.
The broker revised forecasts to factor in a production profile that increases sequentially but at the low end of the company’s guidance to 2030.
Contract book forecasts were updated to incorporate expectations of a higher achieved price of around US$80/lb linked to the spot price. The net result, including the share dilution, was a higher target price of $1.33 from $1.00.
Rating upgraded to Buy, High Risk from Hold.
SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/0
Macquarie has increased valuation and target price for the majority of its listed property sector coverage on stronger income fundamentals, together with improved access to and cost of capital.
Weighted average cap rate assumptions lowered by -25bps to -50bps across retail, office, and industrial, reflecting tighter spreads to bonds.
The broker notes commercial real estate transactions rose 19.1% y/y to $28.7bn in the year to June, with retail the standout, up 56% y/y.
The broker highlights equity inflow in some sectors beat expectations, with Charter Hall a good example, raising $1.75bn (with more demand) when it was seeking $300m.
The broker updated the spread to bonds for Scentre Group to -27bps compression, compared with the +23bps widening previously assumed.
Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target rises to $4.15 from $3.51 (was $3.37 on August 27).
VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/2
Macquarie has increased valuation and target price for the majority of its listed property sector coverage on stronger income fundamentals, together with improved access to and cost of capital.
Weighted average cap rate assumptions lowered by -25bps to -50bps across retail, office, and industrial, reflecting tighter spreads to bonds.
The broker notes commercial real estate transactions rose 19.1% y/y to $28.7bn in the year to June, with retail the standout, up 56% y/y.
The broker highlights equity inflow in some sectors beat expectations, with Charter Hall a good example, raising $1.75bn (with more demand) when it was seeking $300m.
The broker updated the spread to bonds for Vicinity Centres to a modest -13bps compression, compared with the +31bps widening previously assumed.
Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target rises to $2.49 from $2.21.
Downgrade
CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/4/1
Citi sees limited near-term earnings growth for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT despite a strong share price rally. Operational earnings growth is expected to be around 3% over coming years as inflation returns to more normal levels.
Acquisitions have historically driven growth, notes the broker, but gearing has risen to around 40% following recent deals, above peers and near management’s tolerance. It’s felt this factor could restrict further acquisitions.
Some asset value upside is possible through cap rate compression, though the analysts believe progress will be slower than peers.
Macquarie raises its target price to $4.70 from $4.40 and downgrades to Neutral from Buy.
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED ((MYR)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Myer’s FY25 profit of $36.8m was well below forecasts by Ord Minnett and consensus, with no final dividend as higher cost-of-doing-business (CODB) offset stronger 2H like-for-like sales.
Cost pressures have persisted into FY26, highlights the analyst, though early sales growth of 3.1% year-on-year was ahead of forecasts.
FY26 guidance for a 29-30% CODB margin signals to Ord Minnett further increases from the Apparel Brands integration and higher office spending.
The broker estimates -$15–20m in additional costs will be embedded, while distribution centre issues reduced FY25 earnings by -$16m.
Ord Minnett lowers its target price to 67c from 86c and downgrades to Hold from Accumulate.
PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/2
UBS highlights its two-year bearish stance on the lithium sector, but supply disruptions from the Chinese lepidolite producers resulted in significant price upgrades recently.
A recovery is still expected, but the broker has shortened the length of producers’ outages. This follows leads from the UBS China team about CATL Jianxiawo and seven other mines renewing their mining permits and restarting either Nov/Dec 2025 or March 2026.
The broker lowers spodumene price forecasts by -7% for 2025 to US$835/t and by -12% for 2026 to US$1,100/t.
Pilbara Minerals is downgraded to Sell from Neutral, following the 100% rise in the share price since the start of June. UBS cut its FY26 EPS estimates by -57% and FY27 by -9%.
Target falls to $2.25 from $2.30.
PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((PTM)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/2/0
Bell Potter notes all major resolutions regarding Platinum Asset Management’s merger with L1 Capital ((LSF)) were passed at the September 22 AGM, paving the way for the merger by month-end, forming L1 Group. The ASX code will be L1G.
The company made several announcements since July, with a key one being a significant client redemption of -$580m expected in October and November. FY25 result, published in late August, was in line with the broker’s expectations.
The broker updated the model to incorporate FY25 results, disclosures and fund flow updates, resulting in a 10.5% increase to FY26 net profit forecast and a 5% increase to FY27.
Target rises to 70c from 60c. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.
VAULT MINERALS LIMITED ((VAU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/0
UBS lowers its target for Vault Minerals to 72c from 75c and downgrades to Neutral from Buy after three-year production guidance came in lower than the broker’s expectation.
Consequently, the broker trims its FY26-28 production forecasts by an average of -7%.
FY26 guidance of around 346koz is down from 385koz in FY25, impacted by Deflector’s transition to owner mining, development at Spanish Galleon, and Leonora’s plant expansion, explains the broker.
More positively, the analysts note FY28 includes 42koz from Sugar Zone on an earlier restart.
Cost (AISC) guidance proved resilient, according to UBS, at around -$2,900/oz despite weaker output, with Leonora at -$2,350/oz including inventory charges. FY26 capex of -$278m was only slightly above the UBS forecast.
Despite a strong balance sheet with $686m cash and bullion, recent share price strength and slower buy-back execution contribute to the broker’s material downgrades to forecast earnings.
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| Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=203,139,160,101,245,245,173,131&h0=129,145,177,111,168,148,29,176&s0=12,26,46,49,37,33,4,34″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″> | |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CLW - CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CQR - CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GPT - GPT GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LSF - L1 LONG SHORT FUND LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MYR - MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PEN - PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLS - PLS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PTM - PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SCG - SCENTRE GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VAU - VAULT MINERALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: VCX - VICINITY CENTRES