The Monday Report – 02 March 2026

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This story features MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MFG
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets were weaker on Friday, but all eyes are now focused on Iran and the Middle East post the coordinated US/Israeli attacks on Iran on Saturday.

Oil, gold and silver prices are indicated higher.

The Australian market rallied 3.71% in February led by materials and financials. ASX200 futures are pointing to a weaker start post the soft lead from Wall Street and the Middle East conflict.

In latest news, Magellan Financial ((MFG)) is in a trading halt ahead of a capital raising and proposed merger with partially owned Barrenjoey.

Good Morning,

The ASX200 finished last week 117 points (up 1.29%) higher at 9198.6, continuing to be supported by a better-than-expected February reporting season.

The index finished the month of February up 3.71%, marking a third consecutive month of gains and its largest monthly advance since May last year.

Solid earnings from major miners reinforced the bullish trend in the ASX200 Materials sector, which has been in play since July last year.

The ASX200 Materials sector gained 8.97% in February alone, extending its winning streak to eight months and rallying more than 60% from its July 2025 low.

Shares in BHP Group ((BHP)) have followed a similar path.

The big banks also rediscovered their earnings-season “Mojo” pushing the ASX200 Financials sector up 8.62% for the month.

If the Materials and Financials continue to perform, the ASX200 should continue to motor higher. 

(As reported by Tony Sycamore, IG).

FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor is assessing the tail end of the February season this week:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

IG Weekend Markets Flash Warning: Oil Soars 15% as Strait of Hormuz Halts, Iranian Strikes Escalate 

Ahead of the opening this morning, volatility on IG Weekend Markets has moved significantly higher over the past 12 hours reflecting the escalation in the US-Israel-Iran conflict, including Iran’s restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, vessel attacks, shipping suspensions, and retaliatory strikes across the region.

This has driven a massive rally in crude oil prices on IG Weekend Markets with risks of prolonged supply disruptions potentially pushing prices through last year’s US$80.77 high into triple digits.

Crude Oil: Up 15.13% at approximately US$77.44 in the middle of the bid/offer as supply fears intensify on Hormuz disruptions. Note that OPEC-Plus (key members including Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE) agreed on Sunday to a modest output increase of 206,000 bpd from April —ending a Q1 pause— but this is unlikely to offset near-term risks given the conflict’s impact on regional flows.

(This move alone should add about $0.15c a litre onto the price of unleaded for Australian motorists at the bowser if sustained).

Gold: Up 2.33% in the middle of the bid/offer on safe haven flows

Silver: Up 4.38% at approximately US$97.87 in the middle of the bid/offer

US Indices:

Wall Street Cash (Dow Jones): down -0.98%

US Tech 100 (Nasdaq): down -1.01%

ASX 200: Down -0.68% (projects a reopen around 9125/35ish)

What happened overnight, NAB Markets Today extract

Ahead of the developments in the middle east, oil had moved around 3% higher on Friday as the market continued to reckon with the risk of conflict. Key for the broader market and economic implications are the extent and persistence of disruptions to shipping. Iran exports around 2% of global oil supply, but about a fifth of seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The consequences extend beyond just oil. With a similar share of LNG transiting the Strait, and about a third of globally traded fertiliser volumes passing through the straight.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says his country has no intention to close the Strait of Hormuz, but vessels began avoiding Hormuz almost as soon as the conflict began on Saturday and reports suggest the tanker traffic has essentially halted. Insurers have told ship owners they would cancel policies and raise prices for travel through the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

The FT reports the three largest container shipping lines have suspended services, including through the Bab el Mandeb strait that connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, setting back an expected wider return to Red Sea shipping routes.

On Friday, US PPI was two tenths hotter than expected at 0.5% m/m. PPI was supported by a large 2.5% jump in trade services which measures changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. After a squeeze through the second half of 2025.

Together with earlier CPI data, tracking estimates of core PCE remain elevated around 0.3-0.4% mom. Fed pricing was nonplussed, with -61bp of easing now priced for this year, up 5bp from a day prior.

Elsewhere, ahead of Eurozone Preliminary CPI later this week, German Harmonised CPI was -2 tenths lower than expected at 1.9%, but French and Spanish numbers both ran ahead of expectations.

Tokyo CPI was 1.6% yoy, 2 tenths above expectation. Headline is weighed by electricity subsidies. The ex-fresh food and energy number was 2.5%, also 2 tenths higher than expected. BoJ pricing was little changed, with 23bp of tightening priced for June.

In rates markets on Friday, US 2-year yields dropped, down -5bp to 3.37% and at their lowest level since 2022. 10-year yields fell -7bp to 3.94%, below 4% and hit their lowest levels since October. The rally in government bonds was broad based.

In equities, the S&P500 lost -0.4% and the Nasdaq was -0.9% lower. Banks underperformed. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index fell -4.85%, its largest one-day drop since the market volatility that followed liberation day.

Concerns around credit saw another jolt with the collapsed UK financing company Market Financial Solutions. Despite concerns ranging from AI disruption to private credit and geopolitics, the S&P500 is only down -0.9% over the month as utilities, energy, and materials sectors each recorded gains of more than 8%.

In FX Friday, the USD was lower, down -0.2% on the DXY. The Swiss franc gained 0.6%, benefitting from safe have demand. CHF is down another -0.2% or so in early Monday trading, but its safe-haven attributes are on display more clearly against the euro, with EURCHF around -0.6% lower in early Monday trading near 0.9030.

The JPY was little changed Friday and has opened relatively little changed in early Monday trading as well, Japan’s exposure via energy imports meaning it struggled to benefit the same way from the risk off dynamics. The AUD managed a 0.2% gain on Friday to end the week at 0.7118, but is around -0.9% lower this morning, currently around 0.7050.

In other FX news, China moved to lean against the pace of recent yuan appreciation. The PBOC will remove the 20% reserve requirement on FX forward contracts from today, lowering the cost of shorting the CNY via derivatives.

China’s annual “Two Sessions” kick off Wednesday with the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, followed by the opening of the National People’s Congress the next day, at which the 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to be unveiled.

ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus, Commodities extract

Crude oil prices pushed higher leading into the weekend as the market braced for an escalation in tensions between the US and Iran. The two sides ended a meeting in Geneva over Iran’s nuclear program without any clear progress toward a deal. President Trump warned that Iran wasn’t negotiating in good faith.

Meanwhile, the US, China and several other nations advised citizens to leave some parts of the region. Those concerns appear well founded, with US and Israel launching an attack on Iran over the weekend. That lead to retaliatory action, with Iran launching missiles at neighbouring countries holding US military assets.

Iran said on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz remains open. However, it has also attacked three oil tankers over the day. This led to an immediate reaction from the shipping industry, with insurance companies pulling their support for vessels entering the waterway. This aligns with the worst-case scenario we highlighted last week.

The breakdown of talks leading to an escalation of the conflict has the biggest implications for the oil market. With the retaliatory action now evolving to attacks on oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the threat on oil supplies has substantially risen.

Roughly 20% of world supplies transit this key waterway. This has already elicited a response from producers. OPEC meeting on Sunday agreed to resume production hikes in April of 206kbbl/d. However, some of the producers will be hampered by the effective closure of the Strait. The International Energy Agency reiterated its view that oil markets are well supplied.

However, the group is actively in discussion with members. Those talks are likely to include the possible release of oil from strategic reserves, a scenario we also view likely should disruptions start to mount. With the conflict continuing to escalate, we are likely to see oil prices surge higher on the opening of markets today.

The conflict in the Middle East is also likely to impact supplies of natural gas. Iran’s neighbour, Qatar is one of the biggest LNG exporters in the world. Like oil, around 20% of the world’s supply travels through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to ship tracking data, LNG trade through the waterway is all but halted. Israel has shuttered some fields. Asian buyers have been checking if alternative cargoes are available, considering more than 80% of Qatar’s LNG finds its way to Asia.

A significant number of shipments to Europe also pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold gained last week amid rising geopolitical tensions that boosted haven demand. Support was also found from uncertainty around the Trump administration’s tariff agenda. Demand from haven assets such as gold is likely to surge this week following the escalation of tensions between US and Iran.

Copper led the base metal sector higher last week amid reports of additional stimulus measures in China. Top lawmakers in Beijing have urged more proactive fiscal stimulus policy and loose monetary policy to stimulate demand. Sentiment was also supported by the US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

Iron ore futures came under pressure on Friday after stockpiles at Chinese ports hit a record high of 162.2mt, according to Shanghai Steelhome E-Commerce. That may be mitigated by hopes of additional stimulus measures boosting demand.

Corporate news in Australia

-Magellan Financial ((MFG)) placed in a trading halt ahead of proposed equity raising and merger with Barrenjoey

-Lynas Rare Earths’ ((LYC)) Malaysia operating licence has been renewed for 10 years until 2036

-Synlait ((SM1)) secures banking waivers and extensions ahead of North Island asset sale

-Wagners family sell 30m share at $4.40 in Wagners Holdings ((WGN))

-InStitchu is simplifying its operations and refocusing on its 14-year-old made-to -measure menswear brands post $12.8m in divestments and equity raising

-Stonepeak has acquired a 50% stake in Qld retirement village developer and operator Aura

-L1 Capital ((L1G)) is looking to IPO a new ASX-listed gold and precious metal investment company

-Richard White’s Vinyl Group us acquiring Val Morgan Digital for $10.5m from Hoyts

-Abu Dhabi Investment Authority has sold its Novotel and Ibis hotels in Sydney’s Darling harbour to Wentworth Capital for $390m

-Future Group has acquired the superannuation trustee business of Willis Towers Watson and is exiting EQT Holdings ((EQT)) services

-Chemist Warehouse founders could sell Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) shares after the strong results

On the calendar today:

-AU 4Q Business Inventories/Profits

-AU ANZ Job Ads

-JP BoJ Speech

-JP Jan Unemployment

-US Feb ISM

-US Jan Retail sales

-XX Global PMIs

-AMOTIV LIMITED ((AOV)) ex-div 20.00c (100%)

-AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) ex-div 12.50c (90%)

-FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) ex-div 82.00c (100%)

-HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED ((HLO)) ex-div 5.00c (100%)

-MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((MHJ)) 1H26 Earnings briefing

-NICK SCALI LIMITED ((NCK)) ex-div 39.00c (100%)

-ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED ((ORG)) ex-div 29.00c (80%)

-PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED ((PNI)) ex-div 29.00c

-PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED ((PWH)) ex-div 3.00c (100%)

-REGAL PARTNERS LIMITED ((RPL)) ex-div 15.00c (100%)

-RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED ((RWC)) ex-div 2.82c (0%)

-STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED ((SDF)) ex-div 8.20c (100%)

-WOTSO ((WOT)) ex-div 1.35c

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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