Rudi’s View: Make Today’s Crisis Your Opportunity

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((MTS))
            [1] => ((WOW))
            [2] => ((APA))
            [3] => ((TLS))
            [4] => ((TCL))
            [5] => ((ALD))
            [6] => ((BXB))
            [7] => ((RMD))
            [8] => ((CSL))
            [9] => ((COH))
            [10] => ((RHC))
            [11] => ((SHL))
            [12] => ((CPU))
            [13] => ((IRE))
            [14] => ((ASX))
            [15] => ((WGN))
            [16] => ((CSL))
            [17] => ((ANN))
            [18] => ((BAP))
            [19] => ((EOL))
            [20] => ((DGD))
            [21] => ((TNE))
            [22] => ((SIG))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => MTS
            [1] => WOW
            [2] => APA
            [3] => TLS
            [4] => TCL
            [5] => ALD
            [6] => BXB
            [7] => RMD
            [8] => CSL
            [9] => COH
            [10] => RHC
            [11] => SHL
            [12] => CPU
            [13] => IRE
            [14] => ASX
            [15] => WGN
            [16] => CSL
            [17] => ANN
            [18] => BAP
            [19] => EOL
            [20] => DGD
            [21] => TNE
            [22] => SIG
        )

)

This story features METCASH LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MTS
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Don't get mad, or frustrated, get even. Turn this crisis in an opportunity to upgrade your portfolio and strategy.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Make Today’s Crisis Your Opportunity

Last week, I was reminded by FNArena team member Mark Woodruff about Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius’ sage advice:

“You have power over your mind, not outside events. Realise this, and you will find strength.”

Easier said than done, of course, with the war in the Middle East enforcing maximum uncertainty for the world economy and financial markets.

I am by nature not a gambler, but I am willing to bet most investors are coping by not looking at their equity holdings.

The share market can be a brutal place, sometimes.

At the same time, every crisis, big or small, long or short, creates opportunity for those who can stay level-headed, and this year’s challenging context should be no different.

The fact more than 66% of all ratings for individual ASX-listed companies from the seven local stockbrokerages monitored daily by FNArena is Buy-equivalent rated — more than during the GFC Bear Market in 2008, leaving only 26.6% for Neutral/Holds and 7.5% for Sell ratings, might as well be seen as one big indicator of that.

Sure, forecasts might have to come down, which also impacts on valuations and price targets, but so many household names are already trading at significant gaps to analysts’ assessments, this makes it virtually impossible not to see significant opportunities emerging, unless the world is truly on the precipice of another GFC-alike thunderstorm, for which there is no valid indication to date.

In fact, while financial markets are losing their patience with the notoriously mercurial and unreliable US President, there remains a genuine possibility hostilities might cease sooner than anyone is expecting, which would ceteris paribus (all else equal) also limit the damage done to oil supplies and the global economy.

But, yes, the other scenario looks just as valid right now in that Israel and this US administration might well be prepared to endure greater sacrifices in order to achieve indisputable victory.

And even under the first scenario outcome, there’s no reliable guessing just how low share prices might still go.

The opportunity for investors remains the same, though. Whether one is sitting on a pile of cash or still fully exposed to day to day share market shenanigans, the ultimate goal should be to bend this serious challenge to our own benefit, as much as we can.

Upgrading The Portfolio  

As I have time and again advocated during similar crisis situations in the past –including covid and the great bond market reset of 2022– these are ideal conditions to get the broom out and sweep through our portfolio (assuming you’re not hiding in cash).

The idea here is to trade in your disappointing choices –and we all have those– for much better alternatives: those high quality performers we’ve always wanted to own, but for a variety of reasons we don’t.

The idea itself is not 100% new and I am most definitely not the only voice in support of such strategy.

Ellerston Capital sent out a press release on Monday morning, allowing Jack Briggs, portfolio manager of the Ellerston Australian Micro Cap Fund to declare the ASX is now offering “compelling opportunities for active stock pickers” as “Indiscriminate, sentiment-driven selling can create dislocations between price and underlying earnings trajectories”.

The first sector that comes to Ellerston’s mind is the local technology sector, which seems far from an outrageous suggestion to make.

FNArena’s consensus price targets are showing many share prices are trading at levels -40% and much more below target already.

Even if those targets will reset lower, one must adopt a very bearish worldview to suggest updated forward-looking valuations and targets will end up at or below today’s beaten down prices.

This is apart from the fact many of such technology companies remain poised for ongoing robust growth numbers in the years ahead.

And falling bond yields (at some point) and interest rate cuts from central banks (when economies are in need of extra support) should benefit these higher-multiple stocks down the track (all else remaining equal).

Short-Term Defensives

Shorter-term, institutional investors who cannot shift substantially into cash and have to stay invested in the market, will try to identify defensive options and park their money there.

Freshly released historical research by UBS has identified the obvious safe havens we are all too familiar with, ranging from Metcash ((MTS)) and Woolworths Group ((WOW)), to APA Group ((APA)), Telstra ((TLS)), Transurban ((TCL)), Ampol ((ALD)), and Brambles ((BXB)).

Most of the share prices identified have performed relatively well in recent weeks. The FNArena-Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio owns shares in Telstra and Woolworths, which has most certainly compensated somewhat for the falls elsewhere.

However, a big chunk of the funds that are today hiding in these share prices is only temporary a fan and share prices in many cases are looking relatively fully valued as a result of said portfolio rotation.

These are no longer the stocks to chase when putting new money into the market.

In addition, UBS’s research has simply looked at the past. Its list includes a number of healthcare stocks that this time around have not been the same safe havens from the past.

Hence, all of ResMed ((RMD)), CSL ((CSL)), Cochlear ((COH)), Ramsay Health Care ((RHC)) and Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)) have experienced ongoing share price weakness since the start of the war (and prior).

The same observation applies to Computershare ((CPU)). Iress ((IRE)) is also on UBS’s historical list, as is the ASX ((ASX)).

The one key counter-argument to this observation is the market’s first focus has preferenced inflation over weakening growth, and this was also expressed through a strong Aussie dollar.

If the war goes on for longer, and oil supplies remain significantly disrupted, a shift in market focus could well re-ignite interest in higher-multiple defensives that offer less risk operationally.

Stock pickers at Ellerston prefer to ignore the market’s short-term flight to defensive safety and focus instead on “high-quality companies with resilient balance sheets, clear pricing power and multiple drivers of sustainable growth”.

Ellerston’s press release only mentions one recent addition to the Micro Cap Fund; Queensland’s construction materials provider Wagner’s ((WGN)).

Having traveled through hell and back (proverbially) before and after covid, that share price has remained on a firm uptrend since the third quarter of last year.

More All-Weathers Exposure?

When it comes to high quality companies with ongoing strong growth prospects, I’d of course recommend everyone take a peak at my curated lists on the website.

https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

Most have had a terrible time over the past nine months or so and it happens quite regularly that I am truly shocked by how low share prices have fallen.

Then again, it’s not the first time the market’s momentum pendulum has switched into the opposite direction and it probably won’t be the last time either.

A properly diversified portfolio should be able to much better cope with these sharp swings in fund flows, unlike the All-Weather Portfolio which has its restrictions in this regard.

To those who might not have read my Weekly Insights from early March, prior staple in my All-Weather selection, CSL ((CSL)) is no longer included.

This does not mean today’s share price doesn’t look ‘cheap’ or this company will never again experience better times, but I now believe the moniker of ‘All-Weather’ has become a misnomer when applied to this truly struggling Australian icon.

Many more companies have been removed since I started my research in the later stages of the GFC, back in 2008-09.

Names that come to mind are Ansell ((ANN)), Ramsay Health Care, and Seek while today’s car crash business (pun intended) Bapcor ((BAP)) was once selected as a potential future All-Weather stock.

Things change, even without covid, AI and/or oil affected by war in the Middle East.

I have also used the opportunity to add two new names to my list of Emerging New Business Models. Of course, I do think both Energy One ((EOL)) and Generation Development ((DGD)) should be on investors’ radar.

Energy One, with a market cap of $400m-plus, is to date only included in two key local indices; the All-Ordinaries and All-Tech index.

This company provides end-to-end software, outsourced operations, and advisory services for wholesale energy, environmental, and carbon markets, serving over 450 customers across 30-plus countries.

Its core advantage is a flexible, fast-to-implement one-stop-shop platform that simplifies complex energy trading and operational requirements. Analysts believe growing renewable penetration increases system volatility and complexity, strengthening demand for Energy One’s mission-critical tools and services.

Equally important: it seems quite difficult to envisage how AI can destroy its business case. Instead, management is applying AI to accelerate productivity gains and development of new tools and applications.

There has been cyberattack vulnerability in the past and management has since spent -$2m over roughly two years to achieve ISO 27001 certification, the main international standard for an information security management system (ISMS).

Currently, the stock is covered by three brokers inside the FNArena universe and all have positive views, backed up by price targets well above today’s share price.

As a small cap, market sentiment needs to improve noticeably before this share price is likely to ever close the current gap.

But as a wise man once said: nothing lasts forever, especially in financial markets. Patience seems but the necessary ingredient.

Generation Development has gone through a major transformation in recent years, not dissimilar from Energy One’s, and this also explains that big bump on share price charts up until September last year.

The trajectory since has been nothing but brutal.

Make a note: small caps will break your heart during the tougher times on the market. Now the share price is so far below valuations and price targets, it is almost impossible not to see this as a great opportunity (though patience might still be required, just as with Energy One).

For those not familiar, Generation Development is the number one player locally for investment bonds, a niche for which demand is helped by tax and retirement tailwinds, plus growing interest in tax-effective and longevity solutions.

Acquired Evidentia is the local market leader in managed accounts. The third engine, Lonsec, provides research and ratings to investment professionals.

The big announcement was a strategic alliance with BlackRock to co-design retirement solutions, with BlackRock taking a $25m minority stake on a five-year lock-up.

As shown in recent result releases, there is constant risk for not quite meeting high expectations, but the current share price should take care of that, plus some.

That assessment is backed up by seven Buys out of seven brokers currently available through Stock Analysis on the website.

I believe both small caps have potential to grow above the mainstream and offer investors a slice of ‘special’, similar to what the likes of ResMed, TechnologyOne ((TNE)) and WH Soul Pattinson have done over multiple decades, and what I hope a company like Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) will be able to achieve in the decade(s) ahead.

Keep believing there will be better times ahead, exact timing as yet unknown, and make this crisis your next best opportunity.

See also:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/19/rudis-view-top-picks-conviction-buys/

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/12/rudis-view-post-february-conviction-calls-2/

FNArena Subscription

A subscription to FNArena (6 or 12 months) comes with an archive of Special Reports (21 since 2006); examples below.

(This story was written on Monday, 23rd March 2026. It was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers, and again on Wednesday as a story on the website).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena’s see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: contact us via the direct messaging system on the website).

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms