ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
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ORG

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 1.83
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$10.58

05 Jun
2025

-0.140

OPEN

$10.69

-1.31%

HIGH

$10.72

2,558,579

LOW

$10.57

TARGET
$10.586 0.1% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ORG: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 81.1 88.1 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 680.0 59.4 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 32.3% 8.5% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 91.3% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 12.0 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 5.6% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 838.3% 67.4% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 109.15%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 64.21

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 27.50c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx81.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx680.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx16,076.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx552.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,382.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.69 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.29 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.09 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.46 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx955.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,310 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,378 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,091 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,379 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.97

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx653.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.06 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,094 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx673 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,917 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.2

No. Of Recommendations

5
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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UBS

27/05/2025

1

Buy

$11.70

10.59%

Origin Energy's market update offered plenty for analysts at UBS to digest, including Kraken announcing its first major account in the US, adding some 6.5m accounts, as well as the second downgrade in 12 months for Octopus Energy's FY25 EBITDA guidance.

The AER's final decision on FY26 regulated retail electricity prices is seen adding upside versus the prior draft decision.

Now FY25 has been de-risked, UBS argues any share price weakness on the back of weaker trading dynamics should be treated as an opportunity to add exposure.

Estimates have been minimally reduced. Valuation remains $11.70. Buy.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

(xx/xx/xxxx)

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

1

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

29/05/2025

4

Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral

$10.15

-4.06%

Jarden notes the APLNG contract price review initiated by Sinopec concluded with a price lower than its forecasts. As a result, the broker cut Origin Energy's (27.5% stake in APLNG) FY25-26 EPS forecasts by up to -3%.

The new price formula will last until the contract expiry, but APLNG has an option to request a price review in 2030, meaning there's only upside risk to the price.

Broadly, the broker reckons the rally in the company's share price is surprising given headwinds from lower oil prices, APLNG price review and the possibility of APLNG capex increase. Rating therefore downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.

Target price cut to $10.05 from $10.25.

The above dates from May 23. The below is from three days later, on May 26.

Jarden describes Origin Energy’s latest update as mixed. FY25 Energy Markets earnings guidance was raised to $1.3-1.4bn from $1.1-1.4bn, due to stronger generation, favourable market conditions, and lower green certificate costs.

This prompts a modest 3.1% upgrade to the broker's FY25 Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) forecast to $1.36bn.

The downside came from Octopus Energy, with FY25 earnings downgraded by -$100m due to unusually warm spring weather in the UK, note the analysts. One-off effects tied to the 2022 UK price guarantee scheme also weighed.

Jarden has left its valuation of Octopus unchanged but raised the Energy Markets valuation by 10c per share, lifting the Origin target price to $10.15 from $10.05. Underweight retained.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 82.20 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

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