ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
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ORG

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 1.83
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$10.11

15 Apr
2025

0.020

OPEN

$10.15

0.20%

HIGH

$10.18

1,985,119

LOW

$10.02

TARGET
$10.604 4.9% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ORG: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 81.1 87.1 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 680.0 59.1 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 32.3% 7.3% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 91.3% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 11.7 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 5.8% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 838.3% 67.9% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 103.82%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 66.86

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 27.50c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx81.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx680.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx16,076.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx552.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,382.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.69 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.29 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.09 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.46 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx955.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,310 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,378 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,091 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,379 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.97

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx653.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.06 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,094 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx673 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,917 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.4

No. Of Recommendations

5
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

UBS

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Ord Minnett

14/03/2025

1

Buy

$11.00

8.80%

The Australian Energy Regulator's (AER) draft default market offer determination for FY26 is positive for both Origin Energy and AGL Energy ((AGL)), given their higher exposure to non-Victorian states, notes Ord Minnett.

The AER's draft recommends price increase of 2.5-8.9% for retail customers and 4.2-8.2% for small businesses and factors in cost increases across all components. The Victorian draft market offer proposes flat electricity prices for FY26.

The broker lifted Origin's FY26 EPS forecast by 9%. No change to $11 target price. Buy maintained.

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Goldman Sachs

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

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Jarden

13/04/2025

3

Neutral

$10.00

-1.09%

Jarden cut the forecast for Brent oil price for the remainder of 2025 and for 2026-27 to US$65/bbl from US$75/bbl. The broker also revised the AUD/USD forecast to 0.62 from 0.64 from April.

While OPEC-plus members would desire to keep oil prices near US$80/bbl, the broker believes that given oil markets' tendency to react negatively and quickly to any growth uncertainties, prices are likely to stay low.

For the March quarter, the analyst expects Origin Energy to report a -7% quarter-on-quarter decline in LNG revenue from APLNG. Electricity sales volume is estimated to be flat y/y.

Neutral. Target cut to $10.00 from $10.30.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 83.30 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 65.50 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

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