ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED (ORG)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

Enter the company code or Name for stock analysis:

ORG

ORG - ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

FNArena Sector : Infrastructure & Utilities
Year End: June
GICS Industry Group : Utilities
Debt/EBITDA: 1.83
Index: ASX50 | ASX100 | ASX200 | ASX300 | ALL-ORDS

Origin Energy is an Australian natural gas and exploration company. It was formed in 2000 as a result of a de-merger from Boral. The company has a large exploration portfolio in Australia and is a major shareholder in the Australia Pacific LNG joint venture.

LAST PRICE CHANGE +/- CHANGE % VOLUME

$10.45

27 May
2025

-0.060

OPEN

$10.20

-0.57%

HIGH

$10.59

4,340,747

LOW

$10.15

TARGET
$10.572 1.2% upside
Franking for last dividend paid out: 100%
OTHER COMPANIES IN THE SAME SECTOR
AGL . AIA . ALX . APA . CEN . DBI . DBI . GNE . GNP . MEZ . SRJ . TCL .
FNARENA'S MARKET CONSENSUS FORECASTS
ORG: 1
Title FY23
Actual		 FY24
Actual		 FY25
Forecast		 FY26
Forecast
EPS (cps) xxx 81.1 89.1 xxx
DPS (cps) xxx 680.0 59.4 xxx
EPS Growth xxx 32.3% 9.8% xxx
DPS Growth xxx 100.0% - 91.3% xxx
PE Ratio xxx N/A 11.8 xxx
Dividend Yield xxx N/A 5.6% xxx
Div Pay Ratio(%) xxx 838.3% 66.6% xxx

Dividend yield today if purchased 3 years ago: 99.42%

DIVIDEND YIELD CALCULATOR

Dividend Yield Today On Last Actual Payout :

 64.45

Estimated Dividend Growth
(Average Of Past Three Years)

  %

Amount Invested

 $ 

Tell Me The Dividend After This Many Years
Past performance is no guarantee for the future. Investors should take into account that heavy swings in share price or exceptional circumstances (a la 2009) can have a significant impact on short term calculations and averages

Last ex-div: 05/09 - ex-div 27.50c (franking 100%)

HISTORICAL DATA ARE ALL IN AUD
Copyright © 2025 FactSet UK Limited. All rights reserved
Title 201920202021202220232024
EPS Basic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx81.1
DPS All xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx680.0
Sales/Revenue xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx16,076.0 M
Book Value Per Share xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx552.4
Net Operating Cash Flow xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,382.0 M
Net Profit Margin xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx8.69 %

EPS Basic

DPS All

Sales/Revenue

Book Value Per Share

Net Operating Cash Flow

Net Profit Margin

Title 201920202021202220232024
Return on Capital Employed xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Invested Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx11.29 %
Return on Assets xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7.09 %
Return on Equity xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx15.20 %
Return on Total Capital xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx10.46 %
Free Cash Flow ex dividends xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx955.0 M

Return on Capital Employed

Return on Invested Capital

Return on Assets

Return on Equity

Return on Total Capital

Free Cash Flow ex dividends

Title 201920202021202220232024
Short-Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx68 M
Long Term Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,310 M
Total Debt xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx3,378 M
Goodwill - Gross xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx2,091 M
Cash & Equivalents - Generic xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1,379 M
Price To Book Value xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx1.97

Short-Term Debt

Long Term Debt

Total Debt

Goodwill - Gross

Cash & Equivalents - Generic

Price To Book Value

Title 201920202021202220232024
Capex xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx653.0 M
Capex % of Sales xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx4.06 %
Cost of Goods Sold xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx14,094 M
Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx673 M
Research & Development xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx-
Investments - Total xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx7,917 M

Capex

Capex % of Sales

Cost of Goods Sold

Selling, General & Admin. Exp & Other

Research & Development

Investments - Total

EXPERT VIEWS
Display All Commentary

Sentiment Indicator

0.2

No. Of Recommendations

5
BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Macquarie

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Citi

xx/xx/xxxx

1

xxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

UBS

27/05/2025

1

Buy

$11.70

11.96%

Origin Energy's market update offered plenty for analysts at UBS to digest, including Kraken announcing its first major account in the US, adding some 6.5m accounts, as well as the second downgrade in 12 months for Octopus Energy's FY25 EBITDA guidance.

The AER's final decision on FY26 regulated retail electricity prices is seen adding upside versus the prior draft decision.

Now FY25 has been de-risked, UBS argues any share price weakness on the back of weaker trading dynamics should be treated as an opportunity to add exposure.

Estimates have been minimally reduced. Valuation remains $11.70. Buy.

FORECAST
UBS forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
UBS forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.

Morgan Stanley

xx/xx/xxxx

5

xxxxxxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Ord Minnett

xx/xx/xxxx

3

xxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial
Access Stockbroker Research History >
EXTRA COVERAGE
Display All Commentary

No. Of Recommendations

2

Please note: unlike Broker Call Report, BC Extra is not updated daily. The info you see might not be the latest. FNArena does its best to update ASAP.

BROKER DATE RATING RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE % TO REACH TARGET COMMENTARY

Jarden

xx/xx/xxxx

4

xxxxxxxxx xx xxxxxxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx

$xx.xx

xx.xx%

Broker commentary and detailed analysis is available for Full Members Only.
Login above or Get a Free Trial

Goldman Sachs

06/05/2025

3

Neutral

$10.15

-2.87%

Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating on Origin Energy. The 3Q FY25 update showed APLNG revenue 1% ahead of estimates, with electricity and gas sales both rising year-on-year.

FY25 Energy Markets EBITDA guidance remains at $1.1–1.4bn, and capex guidance is unchanged. The broker notes continued strength in Kraken and Octopus, with Kraken contracted accounts growing to 67m.

EBITDA forecasts for 2025–2027 have been raised by 1%, and the price target has lifted to $10.15 from $10.05.

Goldman Sachs cites full valuation, LNG contract repricing uncertainty, and consensus capex risk as reasons for its cautious stance.

FORECAST
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 72.00 cents.
Access Extra Coverage Research History >

ORG STOCK CHART

FNArena News on ORG

1
Rudi’s View: Rate Cut Winners & AI Beneficiaries

May 22 2025 - Rudi's View
2
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 19, 2025

May 19 2025 - Daily Market Reports
3
In Brief: Superloop, Woolworths & Ampol In Focus

May 16 2025 - Weekly Reports
4
Rudi’s View: 30 For ’30 & Best Buy Convictions

May 15 2025 - Rudi's View
5
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 06, 2025

May 06 2025 - Daily Market Reports

Latest Infrastructure & Utilities News

1
SRG Global: Continued Re-Rating Ahead

May 16 2025 - Small Caps
2
AGL Energy’s Bull Flag A Positive Signal

Apr 08 2025 - Technicals
3
Rudi’s View: To Sell Or Not To Sell

Mar 06 2025 - Rudi's View
4
AGL Energy: Data Centres To The Rescue?

Nov 07 2024 - Australia
5
Origin Energy Surprises To The Downside

Aug 20 2024 - Australia
6
Uptrend In Place For Origin Energy

Jul 30 2024 - Technicals
7
Can Gentrack Live Up To Its Shareprice?

Jul 11 2024 - Small Caps
8
AGL Energy Shares Eyeing $12 Target

Jun 25 2024 - Technicals
9
Next Week At A Glance – 10-14 Jun 2024

Jun 07 2024 - Weekly Reports
10
ESG Focus: The Little Big Things – 15-11-2023

Nov 15 2023 - ESG Focus