Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jun 21, 2024

This story features EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APE

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

APE   ARF   BCI   BOE   BPT   BWP   CAI   CHC   CIA   CIP   CLW   CNI   COF   COI   CQE   CQR   CRD   DXS   GMG   GPT   HDN   HMC   INA   LIC   LNW   MEI   MGR   NEU   NSR   RGN   SCG   SEK   SGP   SPZ   TAH   VCX  

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.54

Moelis rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –

Eagers Automotive’s investor day outlined its long-term structural cost-out and efficiency initiatives aimed at increasing margins by 1.9%, significantly higher than the current 3%, Moelis highlights.

Management aims to optimise its property portfolio, improve efficiency through technology, and pursue multiple topline growth initiatives, despite facing both short-term and long-term industry headwinds.

Moelis has kept FY24-26 EPS estimates unchanged, acknowledging while the automotive cycle turns against Eagers Automotive in the short term, its strategic initiatives make it an attractive investment.

Buy rating and $12.41 target unchanged.

This report was published on June 17, 2024.

Target price is $12.41 Current Price is $10.54 Difference: $1.87
If APE meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 16.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.50 cents and EPS of 100.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.9, implying annual growth of -12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.70 cents and EPS of 91.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.88

Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Overweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The Overweight rating for Arena REIT is retained and the target increased to $4.30 from $4.10. Jarden regards this REIT as a structural earnings compounder, driving ongoing outperformance.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.88 Difference: $0.42
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.99, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of -16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BCI    BCI MINERALS LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $0.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BCI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

BCI Minerals reported it has agreed to sell the Iron Valley iron ore assets to Mineral Resources, with the company expected to receive $26m on completion in July 2024 and additional payments totaling $46.6m by July 2025.

Canaccord Genuity notes the Mardie Salt and SOP project is 43% complete, with strong salt and SOP pricing signals expected to support future revenue.

The project still awaits Federal Environmental approval, which, the broker reports, is being watched by the market.

Speculative Buy rating unchanged. The target price is raised to 49c from 47c.

This report was published on June 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.49 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.265
If BCI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 118% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOE    BOSS ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $4.15

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BOE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Boss Energy is now the only multi-mine producer on the ASX, and one of few globally, following commencement of production at the 30%-owned Alta Mesa mine in Texas.

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a ramp-up to plateau production over a 20-month period.

The Honeymoon operations in South Australia are also ramping-up, notes the analyst, and management advises feasibility study forecasts are being exceeded.

The Speculative Buy rating and $6.00 target are retained.

This report was published on June 14, 2024.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.15 Difference: $1.85
If BOE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 30.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 175.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 126.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.47

Wilsons rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (1) –

Beach Energy updated FY25 production guidance, lowering market expectations to 17.5-21.5 mmboe compared to the previous consensus of 24 mmboe.

Wilsons highlights management also announced a -$150m cost-out program and the broker forecasts a -$35m reduction in operating expenditure in FY25.

Wilsons adjusts FY25 production by -13% and reduced long-term production rates by around -10%, while maintaining future capex will be higher than consensus expectations.

Overweight rating retained, with the price target lowered $1.76 from $1.89.

This report was published on June 19, 2024.

Target price is $1.76 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.29
If BPT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.81, suggesting upside of 23.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.7, implying annual growth of 41.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWP    BWP TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.63

Jarden rates ((BWP)) as Underweight (4) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The Underweight rating for BWP Trust is retained and the target increased to $3.55 from $3.30. Jarden expects this REIT’s net tangible assets (NTA) metric will come under pressure when assets are properly marked-to-market.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.63 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.65, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 217.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 2.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAI    CALIDUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.10

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Calidus Resources reported the Warrawoona gold project continues to ramp up production with FY24 guidance at around 60kozpa at $2,500/oz all-in-sustaining costs.

Calidus Resources acquired the Nullagine Gold Project in late-2023 and has now published an initial resource, which stands at 6.9mt at 2.15g/t  gold for 475koz, of which 65% is in the measured and indicated category of resource classification.

This resource will form the basis of a restart study, scheduled for release in the September quarter, notes Canaccord Genuity, and will include an ore reserve. The broker awaits release of a feasibility study next quarter before including the project in forecasts.

The analysts point out production rates are increasing at Warrawoona mine, some 70km away, where 2H production guidance is between 32-37koz.

The Speculative Buy rating and 29c target are maintained.

This report was published on June 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.185
If CAI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 176% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.25.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC    CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $12.39

Jarden rates ((CHC)) as Overweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for Charter Hall is increased to $14.50 from $13.60 and the Overweight rating is retained. It’s felt this REIT will be one of the main beneficiaries of a stabilising interest rate environment and improving transaction volumes.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $12.39 Difference: $2.11
If CHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.48, suggesting upside of 16.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.7, implying annual growth of 82.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.0, implying annual growth of 7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $6.51

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

Champion Iron’s direct reduction pellet feed (DRPF) project at Bloom Lake, Quebec, is advancing according to budget and timeline, notes the analyst at Jarden, following a site visit.

Management is expecting to clear inventories ahead of the original 18-month forecast timeline.

Champion Iron’s strategic differentiation and potential to achieve improved price realisation remain core to the broker’s Buy rating. The target is decreased to $7.94 from $8.01.

This report was published on June 18, 2024.

Target price is $7.94 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $1.43
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.89 cents and EPS of 101.39 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.42.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.65 cents and EPS of 74.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.76.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.10

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Overweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for Centuria Industrial REIT is increased to $3.65 from $3.60 and the Overweight rating is retained. It’s felt year-to-date share price weakness is overdone.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.55
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 15.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.5, implying annual growth of 0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW    CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.47

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Underweight (4) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The Underweight rating for Charter Hall Long WALE REIT is retained and the target decreased to $3.60 from $3.80. Due to high gearing and pressure on both net tangible assets (NTA) and FFO, Jarden sees better value elsewhere in the sector.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: $0.13
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.8, implying annual growth of 1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.74

Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Underweight (4) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The Underweight rating and $1.80 target are maintained for Centuria Capital. Jarden sees better opportunities in the sector especially after a 7% share price rally in the past year.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.065
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of -11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.19

Jarden rates ((COF)) as Underweight (4) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The Underweight rating for Centuria Office REIT is retained and the target decreased to $1.20 from $1.30. Office, and suburban in particular, is one of Jarden’s least preferred exposures for REITs at present.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $0.01
If COF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.41, suggesting upside of 18.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.6, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COI    COMET RIDGE LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.19

Petra Capital rates ((COI)) as Buy (1) –

The Queensland Government has selected Comet Ridge as the preferred tenderer for the Mahalo Far East Extension, which lays
adjacent to the company’s Mahalo East and Mahalo Far East acreage, observes Petra Capital.

The Extension does not contain any Queensland Government domestic market supply obligations, meaning gas produced can be sold
into higher priced LNG markets, explains the analyst.

This preferred tenderer designation comes just after the same government awarded $5m in grant funding to the company (for the Mahalo East pilot), and after the Federal Government’s favourable Future Gas Strategy, points out Petra Capital.

The Buy rating and 35c target are unchanged.

This report was published on June 18, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.16
If COI meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 31.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 63.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $2.42

Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The target for Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT is decreased to $2.75 from $3.05 and the rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight.

While this REIT offers one of the better revenue growth stories in the sector, the broker sees limited near-term earnings growth.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.33
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR    CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.33

Jarden rates ((CQR)) as Overweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for Charter Hall Retail REIT is decreased to $3.90 from $4.10 and the Overweight rating is retained. It’s felt this REIT’s non-discretionary and petrol station assets provide a safe haven against inflation and a consumer slowdown.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.33 Difference: $0.57
If CQR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.78, suggesting upside of 13.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 324.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.4, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD    CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.80

Wilsons rates ((CRD)) as Overweight (1) –

During its AGM, Conrad Asia Energy announced a delay to the final investment decision (FID) for the Mako gas project to Q4 this year from mid-2024, and Wilsons now estimates first gas at the start of 2027.

Highlighting the quality of the project, the broker is forecasting an around 50% lifetime internal rate of return (IRR).

The Overweight rating is kept, while the target eases to $1.93 from $1.97.

This report was published on June 14, 2024.

Target price is $1.93 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $1.13
If CRD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.90.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 11.16.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $6.43

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The target for Dexus is decreased to $7.60 from $7.90 and the rating upgraded to Neutral from Underweight. While most bad news is already reflected in the share price, the broker sees no evidence of sustainable FFO growth. 

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $6.43 Difference: $1.17
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.64, suggesting upside of 34.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.0, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG    GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $35.54

Jarden rates ((GMG)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for Goodman Group rises to $37.60 from $30.50 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight after an 82% share price rise over the past year.

The elevated stock price could become a funding source for oversold REIT’s in the sector, cautions Jarden.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $37.60 Current Price is $35.54 Difference: $2.06
If GMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.30, suggesting downside of -6.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.7, implying annual growth of 28.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 119.2, implying annual growth of 11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.05

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The target for GPT Group is increased to $4.85 from $4.70 and the rating upgraded to Overweight from Underweight with shares trading at a discount to the broker’s sum-of-the-parts valuation.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $4.85 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.8
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.95, suggesting upside of 22.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of 0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.22

Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Overweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s $1.40 target and Overweight rating are maintained for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT. Jarden expects ongoing progress on asset recycling will address the market’s concerns around elevated gearing.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.22 Difference: $0.185
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.32, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 76.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC    HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.41

Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Neutral (3) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for HMC Capital is increased to $7.90 from $7.00 and the Neutral rating is retained. While Jarden sees medium-term growth potential, there is better value elsewhere in the sector after this REIT’s strong share price performance in 2024.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.41 Difference: $0.49
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.51, suggesting upside of 1.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of 68.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of -3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.80

Jarden rates ((INA)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The target for Ingenia Communities is increased to $5.50 from $5.45 and the rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy following a strong share price performance over the last six months.

Jarden notes evidence of a growing development pipeline and strong underlying rental income and expects outperformance relative to the sector.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $4.80 Difference: $0.7
If INA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.14, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.0, implying annual growth of 39.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.6, implying annual growth of 16.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC    LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $12.19

Jarden rates ((LIC)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The target for Lifestyle Communities is decreased to $15 from $17 and the rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight as recent share price weakness looks overdone, in the broker’s opinion.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.19 Difference: $2.81
If LIC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.28, suggesting upside of 25.4%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.2, implying annual growth of -34.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.2, implying annual growth of 33.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $150.22

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Light & Wonder has completed a US$750m on-market buyback and authorised a new US$1bn share repurchase program, repurchasing 11.2m shares at an average of US$66.72/share.

Jarden view is as positive, reflecting confidence in achieving the 2025 earnings forecasts.

Accordingly, the EPS forecast for FY25 is to increased by around 1.2%, driven by the buyback programs.

The target price is tweaked to $166 from $168, post adjusting for the exchange rate and buyback. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on June 14, 2024.

Target price is $166.00 Current Price is $150.22 Difference: $15.78
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $166.00, suggesting upside of 10.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 445.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 504.7, implying annual growth of 87.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 589.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 660.1, implying annual growth of 30.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEI    METEORIC RESOURCES NL

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MEI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

The mineral resource estimate (MRE) at Meteoric Resources’ Capao do Mel rare earth deposit in Brazil has been increased by 147%, and includes 60% in the measured/indicated category, notes Canaccord Genuity.

The broker also highlights a high grade zone of 36mt at 4,345ppm total rare earth oxides (TREO).

Upgrades to the MRE have positive implications for project development and provide potential for longer mine life, explain the analysts.

The Speculative Buy rating and 45c target are unchanged.

This report was published on June 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.28
If MEI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 165% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR    MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $1.95

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for Mirvac Group is decreased to $2.20 from $2.25 and the rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral as the share price has significantly underperformed the sector over the past six months.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.255
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.43, suggesting upside of 24.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.0, implying annual growth of -0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU    NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $19.91

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NEU)) as Buy (1) –

A follow-up online study by distributor Acadia Pharmaceuticals on Neuren Pharmaceuticals’ Daybue product is incrementally positive on efficacy, titration and toxicity.

Conceding the study falls short of a validated, controlled trial, Canaccord Genuity notes the results allude to early evidence that a more cautious dose titration schedule may be associated with superior safety outcomes.

The analyst has now greater confidence that Neuren’s longer-term compliance assumptions are very realistic.

The Buy rating and $31 target are unchanged.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $19.91 Difference: $11.09
If NEU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.87.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.12.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NSR    NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.32

Jarden rates ((NSR)) as Buy (1) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for National Storage REIT is increased to $2.75 from $2.70 and the Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.43
If NSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -56.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RGN    REGION GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.26

Jarden rates ((RGN)) as Overweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s Overweight rating and $2.50 target are maintained for Region Group. It’s felt this REIT is well positioned with a defensive portfolio and solid non-discretionary retail momentum.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.24
If RGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.51, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG    SCENTRE GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.15

Jarden rates ((SCG)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The target for Scentre Group is increased to $3.65 from $3.60 and the rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy. Jarden continues to like the mall sector and believes this REIT is well positioned despite a strong share price performance over the last six months.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $3.15 Difference: $0.5
If SCG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.4, implying annual growth of 535.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.2, implying annual growth of 3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $22.42

Jarden rates ((SEK)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden assesses the outlook for Seek and reconfirms the positive take on the company. 

The broker adjusts FY25 EPS estimates by -7%, which is attributed to the sale of the Latin American business and lower FY25 volume forecasts, as well as a higher -25% discount on the Seek Growth Fund’s valuation from -20%.

Jarden notes the market is not factoring in the company’s FY28 revenue aspirations in A&NZ and Asia, and the readjustment of the company’s customer base to SMEs and Corporate and Government.

Jarden maintains its Buy rating and adjust the price target to $28.50 from $29.00.

This report was published on June 17, 2024.

Target price is $28.50 Current Price is $22.42 Difference: $6.08
If SEK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.10, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.60 cents and EPS of 55.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.2, implying annual growth of -83.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.20 cents and EPS of 72.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.6, implying annual growth of 42.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP    STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.41

Jarden rates ((SGP)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The target for Stockland is increased to $5.45 from $5.05 and the rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. 

Jarden believes residential momentum will improve in anticipation of rate cuts, while the acquisition of Lendlease Group’s ((LLC) MPC business is expected to drive EPS growth.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.41 Difference: $1.04
If SGP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 13.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of 64.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.48

Petra Capital rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital maintains a Buy rating for Smart Parking with an increased target price of 83c from 64, post a recent UK site tour.

The broker came away from the visit, viewing Smart Parking as more of an application software company rather than a hardware company, supported by its scalable Smart Cloud platform.

Management aims to expand into ten jurisdictions, leveraging Ai to improve license plate match rates, Petra Capital states.

The conversion of manual sites to automated ones has resulted in an improved revenue outlook, although earnings forecasts remain unchanged, notes the analyst.

Buy rating. 83c target.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $0.83 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.35
If SPZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.24.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH    TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.69

Jarden rates ((TAH)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden views the appointment of ex-AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan as new MD and CEO-elect of Tabcorp Holdings as positive. He is expected to bring strong media experience and government advocacy.

However, the near-term earnings momentum remains negative, the broker highlights, though stabilisation of racing turnover and the new Victorian licence agreement are expected to provide some earnings support.

The analyst adjusts FY24 forecast net profit by -34% to $34m due to lower-than-expected racing turnover and fixed cost exposure. Forecast FY25 EPS is also downgraded around -25%.

Overweight rating unchanged. The target is lowered to 80c from 95c.

This report was published on June 17, 2024.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.69 Difference: $0.115
If TAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.97, suggesting upside of 41.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.8, implying annual growth of -4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.90 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.0, implying annual growth of 78.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX    VICINITY CENTRES

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.88

Jarden rates ((VCX)) as Overweight (2) –

Within Jarden’s coverage of the Australian REIT sector, weighted-average funds from operations (FFO) growth forecasts are starting to improve for FY25 and FY26 to 3.6% and 7.9%, respectively, from -2.2% in FY24.

The broker believes downside risk to asset values is well reflected in current valuations, and REITs are increasingly moving to offence from defence.

Excluding Goodman Group (which remains the best quality stock in the sector), the analysts see around 18% upside to 12-month target prices.

The broker’s target for Vicinity Centres falls to $2.35 from $2.40 and the Overweight rating is retained partly due to a strong tenant mix, along with a conservative balance sheet and hedge book.

This report was published on June 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.35 Current Price is $1.88 Difference: $0.47
If VCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.04, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.9, implying annual growth of 133.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don’t have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms