Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 09, 2024

This story features ACROW LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ACF

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ACF   APE   BHP   BSL   CAI   CCR   CIA   CRN   CTM   DRR   FMG   ILU   LIN   LTR (2)   LYC   MAH   MIN   MYE   MYX   NHC   OBM   QAN   RED   RIO   RUL   S32   SFR   SGM (2)   SHA   SLC   SUN   WHC  

ACF    ACROW LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.06

Petra Capital rates ((ACF)) as Buy (1) –

The latest trading update for Acrow suggests to Petra Capital operating momentum has remained positive. Management noted record hire contract wins ($12.3m) in June, boosting contracted hire revenue to $78.3m, up by 17% on the previous corresponding period.

The broker believes the upcoming FY24 result will meet management’s guidance and anticipates further strong growth in FY25.

Petra Capital points to buoyant demand across key end markets and ongoing opportunities for Acrow to expand its operating footprint.

The Buy rating and $1.47 target are maintained.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.06 Difference: $0.405
If ACF meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 25.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of 31.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.1, implying annual growth of 11.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.16

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APE)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity observes June 2024 vehicle sales data showed a -4.2% decline year-on-year but a 7.7% sequential monthly increase, reflecting strong market conditions.

Year-to-date sales increased by 8.7%, although the broker notes some softening in margins across some brands and models which are over-supplied; a record 2024 is still forecast by the analyst.

The broker has maintained its Buy rating with an $11.70 target price for Eagers Automotive as it believes the company has more robust margins and a technological advantage over its peers.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $11.70 Current Price is $10.16 Difference: $1.54
If APE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 96.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.9, implying annual growth of -12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.00 cents and EPS of 87.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.0, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $43.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for BHP Group falls to $48.40 from $49 on lower forecasts for iron ore production and reduced met coal production estimates for FY25 and FY26. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $48.40 Current Price is $43.48 Difference: $4.92
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $46.08, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 216.50 cents and EPS of 393.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 393.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 223.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 192.10 cents and EPS of 343.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 423.7, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 241.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $19.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((BSL)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for BlueScope Steel falls to $28.20 from $30.10 largely due to lower FY25 Asia and US steel spread assumptions. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $28.20 Current Price is $19.78 Difference: $8.42
If BSL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.42, suggesting upside of 11.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 202.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 205.4, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 190.3, implying annual growth of -7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAI    CALIDUS RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CAI)) as No Rating (-1) –

While Calidus Resources has recently worked with Macquarie to restructure its hedging and debt to more favourable terms, Canaccord Genuity notes the company has now been placed into voluntary administration.

After undertaking an urgent assessment of the company’s operations, the receivers and managers will begin a dual-track re-capitalisation and sale process for Calidus, explains the  broker.

The broker’s price target and rating for Calidus Resources are withdrawn.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Current Price is $0.12. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCR    CREDIT CLEAR LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $0.24

Petra Capital rates ((CCR)) as Buy (1) –

Recent data are showing an acceleration in companies entering insolvency for the first time, with numbers now exceeding pre-covid levels, highlights Petra Capital. March through to May has seen a collective 47% increase over the previous corresponding period.

Credit Clear is set to meet the broker’s earnings expectations for FY25, with management having recently slightly raised FY24 guidance.

Buy rating retained. The target rises to 51c from 43c on a roll-forward of the broker’s revenue forecasts.

This report was published on July 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.51 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.265
If CCR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 17.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $6.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Champion Iron falls to $8.00 from $9.30 on a lower June quarter production forecast and reduced sales over the next six months based on lack of rail capacity. Positive pricing impacts were also allowed for in forecasts. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.47 Difference: $1.53
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 50.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.78.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 48.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.38.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.41

Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Coronado Global Resources rises to $1.70 from $1.55 on higher long-run met coal, pulverised coal injection (PCI) and semi-soft price forecasts. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $0.295
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 22.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.72.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.10 cents and EPS of 16.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.4, implying annual growth of 106.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTM    CENTAURUS METALS LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $0.42

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CTM)) as Speculative Buy (-1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes the feasibility study for the Jaguar Nickel Sulphide Project in Brazil shows a lower capital expenditure nickel concentrate production scenario for Centaurus Metals.

The lower reserve grade leads to a -17% lower annual production versus estimates, but very low operating costs place the project in the lowest cost quartile, the analyst highlights.

The capital expenditure forecast is also lower at -US$371m compared to the broker’s previous expectations of -US$400m. The project aims for production in 2028 which coincides with forecast nickel supply deficits.

Speculative Buy rating and 80c target unchanged.

This report was published on July 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.42 Difference: $0.375
If CTM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 88% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.08

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Deterra Royalties falls to $4.70 from $5.00 after both iron ore and currency forecasts are marked-to-market. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral on valuation.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.08 Difference: $0.62
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.35, suggesting upside of 6.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 30.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.5, implying annual growth of 9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.80 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.2, implying annual growth of 5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $21.82

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Fortescue falls to $16.20 from $16.90 on lower FY25 iron ore shipment forecasts for both hematite and
magnetite. The iron ore capex estimate is increased, but also reduced for green capex. Sell.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $21.82 Difference: minus $5.62 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $20.48, suggesting downside of -7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 193.63 cents and EPS of 298.83 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 300.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 94.53 cents and EPS of 172.28 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.0, implying annual growth of -18.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 185.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $6.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((ILU)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Iluka Resources falls to $9.30 from $9.90 due to a delayed inventory unwind. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: $2.68
If ILU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.8, implying annual growth of -40.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.9, implying annual growth of 50.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIN    LINDIAN RESOURCES LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $0.14

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LIN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity considers the Kangankunde RE Project in Malawi is a low opex/capex, economically robust operation after a first look at the new feasibility study (and maiden ore reserves).

Around 24mt at 2.9% TREO underpin the project’s 45-year life-of-mine (LOM), note the analysts. 

The study assumes a medium-term NdPr price of US$115/kg compared to the broker’s US$120/kg forecast. Even at current US$50/kg NdPr spot prices, Kangankunde delivers positive EBITDA, given its high grade, simple metallurgy and low cost, explains the broker.

The Speculative Buy rating and 50c target are maintained.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.36
If LIN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 257% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.90

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LTR)) as Hold (3) –

Liontown Resources has issued US$250m convertible notes, replacing a previously announced $550m banking facility.

Canaccord Genuity notes the Kathleen Valley project remains on schedule and budget, with first production expected by the end of July 2024. LG Energy Solutions has also agreed to extend and expand the offtake agreement to 15 years from five years.

Updated cash cost estimates for the project have been increased to -$1,080/t and the broker notes the current cash position stands at $122m, with total liquidity post-financing at $500m, covering remaining capex of -$120m.

The target price is lowered to $1.05 from $1.30 and the Hold rating remains unchanged.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.15
If LTR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 30.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3000.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3000.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Underweight (4) –

A US$250m convertible note, in combination with the fully drawn $300m Ford facility, represents around $680m of debt funding, which Jarden explains is in excess of the $550m syndicated facility which is to be cancelled.

The broker considers the convertible notes issue to LG Energy Solutions should create strong alignment between the parties and ensure successful delivery of a viable operation at Kathleen Valley.

The Underweight rating is unchanged and the target eases to $1.00 from $1.03.

This report was published on July 4, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.1
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.18, suggesting upside of 30.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $6.37

Goldman Sachs rates ((LYC)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Lynas Rare Earths rises to $7.50 from $7.40 after marking-to-market for both the NdPr price and currency. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.37 Difference: $1.13
If LYC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.64, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 91.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of -75.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of 208.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.29

Petra Capital rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital’s target for Macmahon rises to 38c from 30c after the broker adopts a higher valuation multiple due to the company’s positive track record and outlook.

The key share price catalyst, suggests the analyst, will be further margin gains and increased cash conversion from a higher proportionate exposure to less capital-intensive contracts.

The Buy rating is maintained as the broker remains upbeat about the company’s growth prospects.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.09
If MAH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.15.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $56.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s $47 target and Sell rating for Mineral Resources are unchanged.

While the analyst’s FY25 lithium volume forecast was lowered at Wodgina and the ramp-up of Ashburton iron ore was pushed-out slightly, the closure of the Koolyanobbing iron ore operation in WA provided an earnings offset.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $56.33 Difference: minus $9.33 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $69.79, suggesting upside of 22.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.5, implying annual growth of -41.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 76.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 92.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 61.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.6, implying annual growth of 35.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYE    METAROCK GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.23

Petra Capital rates ((MYE)) as Downgrade to Speculative Buy from Buy (1) –

The Grosvenor metallurgical coal mine in the Bowen Basin, a key revenue contributor for Metarock Group, experienced a fire last Saturday. As a result, Petra Capital downgrades its rating for Metarock to Speculative Buy from Buy.

As the fire is ongoing, owner Anglo American has advised several months will elapse before workers can safely re-enter the mine.

The 35c target price is maintained. The overall impact is difficult to assess, notes the analyst, but management may be able to offset some of the reduced work availability with other contracts in the region.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.125
If MYE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 121.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.19.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.79.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYX    MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $4.28

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MYX)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes the binding agreement to settle a shareholder class action for -$38m, covering those who acquired stock between 2014-2016.

The settlement is viewed by the broker as a setback, but it does not create any balance sheet pressure with $147m in cash as at the end of 2023.

Management has retained FY24 guidance, which is viewed as a demonstration of strong execution in Women’s Health and Dermatology from the analyst’s perspective.

A Buy rating and $6.69 target retained.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $6.69 Current Price is $4.28 Difference: $2.41
If MYX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $5.04

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for New Hope rises to $3.90 from $3.60 on slightly higher 2H thermal coal prices and higher long-run met coal and semi-soft price forecasts. Sell.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $5.04 Difference: minus $1.14 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 64.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.3, implying annual growth of -50.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.4, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.34

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OBM)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Ora Banda Mining released its resource and reserve statement with an improvement in both Riverina and Sand King which Canaccord Genuity categorises as being “impressive results”.

Looking ahead, the analyst forecasts around -$15m on exploration and resource definition in FY24 with a final investment decision on Sand King in early September. 

According to the analyst’s expectations, Ora Banda Mining should emerge with strong free cash flow yields among intermediate producers in FY25/FY26.

Speculative Buy rating and unchanged 50c target.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.16
If OBM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.80.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QAN    QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $6.10

Jarden rates ((QAN)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden remains bullish on the outlook for the travel sector with lower airfares, industry rationalisation and boomer enthusiasm for travel remaining.

The broker prefers Flight Centre ((FLT)) and Webjet ((WEB)) in the sector with upside to earnings from higher margins and the above mentioned tailwinds.

Buy rating and target price of $7.30.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $6.10 Difference: $1.2
If QAN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.68, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.5, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.40

Canaccord Genuity rates ((RED)) as Buy (1) –

Post the completion of the merger with Silver Lake Resources, Red 5 is now a top five ASX gold producer with a combined cash on hand of $300m, Canaccord Genuity highlights.

The analyst believes the merger provides strategic benefits by addressing Silver Lake’s short mine life and the Red 5 single asset exposure and net debt position, with management expressing plans to optimise and expand operations at King of the Hills and other assets. 

Buy rating and the target adjusted to 43c from 48c.

This report was published on July 8, 2024.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.035
If RED meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.17.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $119.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The target for Rio Tinto falls to $137 from $138.30 after the broker slightly trims forecasts for 2024 and 2025 iron ore shipments. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $137.00 Current Price is $119.90 Difference: $17.1
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $132.17, suggesting upside of 9.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 701.33 cents and EPS of 991.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1226.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 739.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 701.33 cents and EPS of 1027.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1184.4, implying annual growth of -3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 729.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RUL    RPMGLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.49

Moelis rates ((RUL)) as Buy (1) –

Following a FY24 trading update by RPMGlobal, Moelis retains its Buy rating and $2.90 target. Operating leverage is expected to strengthen as annual recurring revenue (ARR) improves, resulting in continued margin performance across FY25 and FY26.

Management’s guidance was for FY24 EBITDA (before management incentives) to finish in the range of $18.7m to $19.3m, while profit (PBT) should be between $14.0 to $14.5m.

The profit number missed the broker’s forecast due to reduced perpetual license sales and the timing of subscription licenses signed during the second half of FY24.

Also, most software subscription licenses sold during the 2H of FY24 were concluded in the last month of the year, explain the analysts.

This report was published on July 4, 2024.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.49 Difference: $0.41
If RUL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.93.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.93.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.70

Goldman Sachs rates ((S32)) as Buy (1) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for South32 rises to $4.30 from $4.00 largely due to a higher long-run met coal price forecast and a slightly higher aluminium price estimate. Buy.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $4.30 Current Price is $3.70 Difference: $0.6
If S32 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.22, suggesting upside of 12.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.49 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 51.84 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.6, implying annual growth of 223.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $9.05

Goldman Sachs rates ((SFR)) as Neutral (3) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Sandfire Resources rises to $8.70 from $8.20 due largely to increased zinc and lead price forecasts, along with slightly lower absolute costs across both mines. Neutral.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $9.05 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 150.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 70.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $10.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Sims falls to $11.10 from $12.40 on lower ferrous scrap price forecasts. Neutral.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $11.10 Current Price is $10.25 Difference: $0.85
If SGM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 20.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 45.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Recent 3Q results for Sims’ key North American competitor, Radius Recycling, suggest further downside risk to 2H guidance for SA
Recycling (softer pricing and margins) and North America Metals (NAM).

Scrap ferrous volumes for Radius decreased by -4% year-on-year and ferrous pricing fell by -9% sequentially, compressing metal margin spreads to 6.8% from 11.8% in the previous corresponding period.

Demand remains soft, observes Jarden, with slower economic activity and significant Chinese exports weighing on ferrous prices.

The Neutral rating and $12.10 target are unchanged for Sims.

This report was published on July 4, 2024.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $10.25 Difference: $1.85
If SGM meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 20.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 122.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 32.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHA    SHAPE AUSTRALIA CORPORATION LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $2.35

Petra Capital rates ((SHA)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital raises its target for Shape Australia by 7.8% to $2.47 after a trading update revealed “impressive” margins thanks
to disciplined cost control and more revenue from regional areas experiencing high growth.

The improved margins were also a result of management’s decision to diversify away from the core office refit and refurbishment sector, explains the analyst.

A further widening of gross margins could potentially arise from the company’s exposure to the Defence and Education sectors, suggests the broker.

The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $2.47 Current Price is $2.35 Difference: $0.12
If SHA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 18.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.91.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.75.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $1.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLC)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights the strong trading update from Superloop with Origin customer transition, and subscriber growth all tracking ahead of expectations.

The company expects EBITDA growth of 42% in FY24, accelerating to 64% in FY25 and the broker expects the balance sheet to be net cash positive by FY25, supporting potential acquisitions and capital investment in high-return smart communities.

The analyst lifts the EBITDA forecast by 2% for FY24 and by 3% for FY25.

Buy rating and the target price is raised to $1.86 from $1.77.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $1.86 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: $0.345
If SLC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.87.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.93.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $16.42

Jarden rates ((SUN)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden reviews the insurance sector in light of interest rates staying higher for longer in Australia.

The broker updates earnings forecasts for mark-to-market movements which results in a -5.4% decline in the Suncorp Group FY24 EPS forecast and a 0.5% increase in the FY25 EPS forecast.

Overweight rating unchanged and the target rises to $17 from $16.95.

This report was published on July 2, 2024.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.42 Difference: $0.58
If SUN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.00, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 105.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.8, implying annual growth of 19.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 105.50 cents and EPS of 104.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 102.6, implying annual growth of -5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WHC    WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $8.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((WHC)) as Neutral (3) –

For the second half of 2024 commodities outlook, Goldman Sachs remains most positive on copper, aluminium, and metallurgical coal on forecast market deficits.

On the other hand, the broker remains bearish thermal coal and battery materials (lithium, nickel) on forecast market surpluses. Elsewhere, the benchmark 62% iron ore price is expected to average between US$100-105/t over the remainder of the year.

The broker’s target for Whitehaven Coal rises to $8.10 from $7.40 on slightly higher 2H thermal coal prices and higher long-run met coal, pulverised coal injection (PCI) and semi-soft price forecasts. Neutral.

This report was published on July 3, 2024.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $8.99 Difference: minus $0.89 (current price is over target).
If WHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.16, suggesting upside of 2.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.5, implying annual growth of -67.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 175.1, implying annual growth of 72.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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