Daily Market Reports | May 01 2025
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
29M (2) ALQ ARX BGL BPT CCP CYG DVP DXB EBR FCL FLT (2) FMG GDG HGO JHX M7T MAC MIN MMI OBM PNR (2) PYC QOR SFR (3) TLS TLX VAU WDS
29M 29METALS LIMITED
Copper - Overnight Price: $0.12
Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) -
29Metals's Golden Grove mine missed Canaccord Genuity's copper production forecasts, down -23% quarter-on-quarter to 4.1kt, but zinc and gold exceeded estimates.
Costs were a major positive surprise, highlight the analysts, with C1 costs of US$0.76/lb and AISC of US$2.07/lb, well below consensus.
Despite lower costs, free cash flow remained negative due to debt repayments, stamp duty, and heavy capex across Golden Grove and Capricorn Copper, explains the broker.
The Gossan Valley development at Golden grove remains on track for second half 2026, with early-stage works advancing, observes the broker.
Canaccord lowers its target price to 12c from 13c and retains a Sell rating due to balance sheet pressure, forecast cash outflows through to 2H of 2026, and peak debt forecast of $120m in June 2026.
This report was published on April 29, 2025.
Target price is $0.12 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 85.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of 12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((29M)) as Overweight (2) -
29Metals reported March quarter copper production of 4.1kt, below Jarden's forecast by -23%, due to lower throughput and grade at Golden Grove.
Zinc production of 17kt exceeded the analyst's expectations and revenue of $142m missed consensus by -24%. Jarden notes the Capricorn Copper insurance payout of $54m expected in the June quarter as a positive, reducing net debt to around $2m.
Operational disruptions at Xantho Extended, including mechanical and seismic issues, led to a revised mine schedule substituting 100kt of higher-grade ore with lower-grade material, increasing risk of future guidance downgrades.
Cash fell by -$86m to $166m, while net debt rose to $57m. Jarden lowers FY25 earnings (EBITDA) by 17%.
Target price unchanged at $0.32. Overweight rating retained.
This report was published on April 30, 2025.
Target price is $0.32 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.2
If 29M meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 167% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 85.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.57.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 60.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of 12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ALQ ALS LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers - Overnight Price: $17.19
Jarden rates ((ALQ)) as Neutral (3) -
Jarden notes ALS reaffirmed FY25 net profit guidance of $310313m, broadly in line with consensus, though the broker questions the timing of the trading update given limited material deviation.
Geochemistry sampling volumes improved, but operating leverage appears constrained, raising concerns about potential price deflation in the Commodities segment. Life Sciences performance remains steady, though greater transparency is needed to evaluate recent acquisitions.
Jarden raises FY25 EPS slightly by 0.4%, with modest upgrades also made to FY2627.
Despite earnings resilience, Jarden sees limited upside due to muted margin expansion and elevated balance sheet leverage, which may restrict acquisition options in FY26.
Target price lifted to $14.50 from $14.40. Neutral rating retained.
This report was published on April 29, 2025.
Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $17.19 Difference: minus $2.69 (current price is over target).
If ALQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.75, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.40 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.94.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.4, implying annual growth of 2274.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.50 cents and EPS of 72.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.84.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.6, implying annual growth of 16.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARX AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED
Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences - Overnight Price: $0.44
Wilsons rates ((ARX)) as Overweight (1) -
Aroa Biosurgery closed FY25 with solid sales and positive cash flow in a highly competitive wound care and reconstructive surgery market, according to Wilsons.
Q4 cash receipts of NZ$20.1m and FY25 revenue guidance of NZ$8184m were in line with expectations, with earnings (EBITDA) guided at NZ$24m.
Operating cash flow was positive for a second consecutive quarter, and Aroa ended the period with NZ$22m in cash and no debt.
Wilsons forecasts 14% year-on-year growth in OviTex and 39% for Myriad, with minimal impact from US tariffs at around -1.5% of net revenue.
The analyst's FY2527 earnings estimates are unchanged apart from FX adjustments. The stock is viewed as undervalued. Overweight rating maintained with 75c target price.
This report was published on April 30, 2025.
Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.31
If ARX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 48.30.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 241.76.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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