Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes

This story features INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IPL

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday May 1 to Friday May 5, 2017
Total Upgrades: 6
Total Downgrades: 27
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 42.94%; Hold 42.94%; Sell 14.11%

Last week's share market weakness was preceded by a slew of recommendation downgrades by local stockbroking analysts. For the week ending Friday, 5th May 2017, FNArena registered no less than 27 downgrades against only six upgrades.

Equally noteworthy: total Buy and Neutral/Hold ratings for the eight stockbrokers monitored daily are now back on equal footing. Buy ratings had moved in front late last year and have been steadfastily ahead since. History shows when this happens the share market tends to go through a tough time. This time, however, it has been merely a sign of the lopsided nature of the uptrend that ensued.

The fact that Buy ratings and Neutral/Hold ratings have moved back in balance is a reflection of the change in underlying market dynamics since February with the two leaders in the H2 2016 rally, resources and banks, encountering resistance and positive momentum spreading out over quality industrials and bond proxies again.

Total Buy and Hold/Neutral ratings now stand at 42.94% each. The remaining 14.11% contains all Sell (and equivalent) ratings. Out of the eight monitored stockbrokers, only Macquarie, Morgans and Ord Minnett carry more Buy ratings than Neutral or Sell.

The week's table for upgrades carries a bias towards smaller cap industrials with Lovisa, oOh!Media, RCG Corp and Smartgroup all receiving one upgrade to Buy.

There are bigger stories waiting to be told behind the 26 downgrades for the week. National Australia Bank received two downgrades. Pact Group received three downgrades. Vocus received six downgrades. RCG Corp also received one downgrade (on top of the earlier mentioned upgrade).

Others receiving one downgrade include FlexiGroup, Platinum Asset Management, ResMed, Seek, Super Retail, Sydney Airport and Woolworths.

In terms of valuations/target prices, cheap bling retailer Lovisa tops the week's list with a gain of 7.6%, beating soon to report financial results Incitec Pivot (+4.9%) and Smartgroup (+4%). On the negative side, Vocus suffered the biggest hit (-48.4%), followed by Platinum Asset Management (-10%) and Newcrest Mining (-5.98%).

The largest increase to earnings estimates went to Alacer Gold, enjoying a gain of 33.5%, followed by Lovisa (+11%), then Incitec Pivot (+4%). On the flipside, Syrah Resources' forecasts suffered -44%, followed by Vocus's -20% and Newcrest Mining's -19%.

One observation that stands is major bank's financial updates are not leading to positive revisions in the aftermath.

Upgrade

AWE LIMITED ((AWE)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1

AWE's March Q production was in line with expectation but revenues were stronger, thanks to a better performance from BassGas, helping to offset the loss from the Tui sale. Macquarie believes the company lacks any near term revenue and production growth drivers; upside potential lies in the contracting of gas volumes in the tight east coast market.

Given the recent pullback in price, Macquarie upgrades to Neutral, suggesting valuation can be improved by the development of Trefoil and longer term contracting for Waitsia. Target unchanged at 55c.

INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED ((IPL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/3/1

Ord Minnett believes the company is entering a period of significant growth in earnings amid strong cash flow, setting the scene for a return of capital in FY18.

The broker upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $4.25 from $3.30.

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0

The company has reported March quarter like-for-like sales growth of 6.7% and same-store sales growth of 10.9% in the year to date.

The company has also acquired Klines South Africa, which comprises 17 store locations. Morgans believes the stock is reasonable value at current levels and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $4.48 from $4.37.

The broker believes the company's low basket size and solid execution has buffered it against softer retail conditions. Further international expansion may provide more upside too.

OOH!MEDIA LIMITED ((OML)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/0/0

The company's overweight exposure to road and retail has served it well, in Credit Suisse's view. The ACCC has formed a preliminary view on the company's intended merger with APN Outdoor ((APO)) regarding a substantial lessening of competition if it goes ahead in the current form.

Credit Suisse observes the statement provides very little room to manoeuvre, with no obvious areas where a compromise can be reached.

The broker notes oOh!media operates in less challenged categories than does APN Outdoor and does not have the same extent of near-term contract risk.

As the stock trades at a discount to APO, the broker upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $5.05.

RCG CORPORATION LIMITED ((RCG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Citi expects the company to appear on the radar of value investors after a -47% fall in the share price since the first half result.

While retail conditions have been patchy, the broker expects the weakness to fuel the debate around the sustainability of the athletic-leisure trend.

The broker downgrades FY17-19 forecasts for earnings per share by -13-20%. Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target is reduced to $0.88 from $1.23.

See also RCG downgrade.

SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD ((SIQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/1/0

The company will acquire AccessPay for $15m. Citi forecasts the acquisition to be 4% accretive in FY18.

The broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral on the back of the acquisition, finding several reasons to buy the stock as it has grown novated leases at 22% and this is expected to continue through both M&A and organic growth.

Margins have also expanded through increased scale and operating efficiencies. Target is raised to $7.33 from $6.61.

Downgrade

CLEANAWAY WASTE MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CWY)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Morgans takes the opportunity to moderate the average sales price assumed for recycled waste oils, as per movements in oil prices. This reduces the broker's growth outlook, albeit strong growth is still assumed for FY17 via cost reductions and contract wins.

The broker downgrades FY17-19 forecasts for EBITDA by -1-2%. Target is lifted to $1.30 from $1.22. The share price has been strong and is currently trading in line with the revised target and the broker downgrades to Hold from Add.

FLEXIGROUP LIMITED ((FXL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/3/0

The company has lowered FY17 estimates for net profit to $90-93m from $90-97m because of underperformance at Certegy. Citi reduces forecasts for FY17-19 by -5-8% and factors in increased expenditure in Ireland.

Citi has become incrementally less certain regarding Certegy as analysis reveals online competitors are being pulled in-store. Afterpay ((AFY)) and Zipmoney ((ZML)) are lower cost and easier to use offerings versus Certegy.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $2.47 from $2.75.

GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((GMA)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Despite the risk of positive news emerging from the company's scheduled update, UBS is downgrading to Sell from Neutral.

The broker believes the investment case will become a tussle between the positive capital return profile and earnings risk that is expected to arise from negative operating leverage and a normalised credit cycle.

Target is reduced to $2.60 from $2.80.

MG UNIT TRUST ((MGC)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/0

The company has completed its asset and footprint review. Morgans observes unit holders, as opposed to suppliers or shareholders, will bear the brunt of the company's announcements, which are expected to lower its cost base so that it can pay a more competitive farm-gate milk price.

This highlights to the broker a mis-alignment of interests between the two. The quantum of write-downs was also larger than expected and the board has suspended the dividend.

Therefore, unit holders are no longer paid to wait for new management to turn the business around, and with no dividend yield support the broker believes the share price will trade sideways.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Add. Target is reduced to $1.00 from $1.20.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Citi and Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/3

Citi's title above today's research update says it all, and not just for NAB, but for the sector overall: "Modest beat not enough to keep the stock running". Post a slightly better than consensus financial performance, the stockbroker downgrades to Sell, price target remains $30.50.

Bad debts remain low, revenues are improving and costs remain under control. It's just that the share price has rallied hard and the analysts do not believe current level will prove sustainable.

First half results were in line with forecasts. The highlights for UBS were revenue growth of 1.7%, a low bad debt charge, and strong asset quality. The most disappointing element was that falling revenue per share has continued.

UBS supports the bank's strategy and envisages further opportunities in business banking but questions whether the book is big enough to matter and be a differentiator for the bank.

The broker believes NAB is caught in Australia's trap, as a large mortgage bank with a dash of business banking. The broker envisages limited room for further appreciation in the share price and downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is $30.

PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LTD ((PGH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank .B/H/S: 0/6/0

The company reiterated guidance at the Macquarie Conference but highlighted that growth will come from acquisitions, as the base business is flat and demand for rigid plastics was very weak in April.

Macquarie reduces FY17 and FY18 estimates for earnings per share by -6% and -4% respectively, to account for this base business performance, and factors in a more gradual improvement over time.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. Target is lowered to $6.80 from $7.00.

The company has pointed to particularly weak trading conditions in April for the rigid packaging business. On Ord Minnett estimates, guidance implies revenue is set to decline around -6% on an organic in the second half.

While the market's reaction to the announcement is overdone, in the broker's opinion, given the stock is trading within 3.8% of the target, the recommendation is reduced to Hold from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $6.85 from $7.00.

The company has reiterated full year guidance for underlying earnings growth but warned that demand conditions are subdued and April was particularly weak in the rigid packaging business.

Deutsche Bank downgrades to Hold from Buy as the stock is trading at a 9% premium to its revised valuation. Target is lowered to $6.80 from $7.20.

PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((PTM)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/3

Platinum has cut the management fee on its management fee only Trust funds by -10%, from 150bps to 135bps from Jul-17 and Ord Minnett has responded with a downgrade to Sell from Hold.

Ord Minnett sees a defensive move aimed at stemming further outflows to lower fee managers such as Magellan ((MFG)) and Antipodes, but with outflows to continue. Cutting fees creates a -9% headwind and the stockbroker now anticipates a large fall (-16%) in EPS in FY18. Target price drops to $4.06 from $4.93.

QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Ord Minnett reports its analysis of recent operating trends suggests no significant improvement in key domestic and international air travel markets. This conclusion has led to the decision to downgrade Qantas to Hold from Buy. Target price falls to $4.05 from $4.30.

RCG CORPORATION LIMITED ((RCG)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

The trading update disappointed Morgans and the recommendation is downgraded to Hold from Add.

The broker lowers FY17 sales assumptions to be in line with the company's downgraded forecasts, as  FY17 underlying EBITDA is reduced to $74-80m versus previous guidance of $85-88m.

The broker is now prepared to wait until positive momentum re-emerges in sales growth before becoming more comfortable with the stock. Target is reduced to $0.68 from $1.32.

See also RCG upgrade.

RESMED INC ((RMD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 4/3/0

The company has lowered gross margin guidance to 58.3%, versus 58-60%, for the fourth quarter. Citi believes this shows the continuing impact of manufacturing issues in masks, which may persist into the first quarter of FY18.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy on valuation. Target is reduced to $10.00 from $10.32.

SEEK LIMITED ((SEK)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Morgans downgrades to Hold from Add after a period of outperformance. The broker likes the long-term story but would prefer to buy the stock at lower levels.

The broker believes the company is on track to deliver many more years of double-digit earnings growth. There are no changes to forecasts. Target is steady at $16.56.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/1

UBS observes the company's residential business is in a sweet spot although retail sales were light, as expected.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy on valuation and a belief that momentum and the residential operating environment is unlikely to get any better. Target is $4.76.

SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED ((SHV)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Mild growing conditions in spring and summer have resulted in plenty of shells but not as many nuts, Morgans notes, forcing Select Harvests to reduce its FY17 almond crop estimate by -5-10%. The broker downgrades forecasts by -11%.

Some 65% of the crop has been forward-sold and prices remain relatively stable, which is pleasing to Morgans. A cut in target to $5.60 from $6.05 nevertheless leads to a downgrade to Hold.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 7/0/1

Credit Suisse reduces sales growth and gross margin assumptions to reflect increased investment in price and this results in earnings downgrades across the forecast horizon.

The broker observes the consumer environment has deteriorated, which is reflected in a marked slowing down in sales growth in the second half across all divisions.

Rating is downgraded to Underperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $8.68 from $10.42.

SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED ((SYD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/1

The company has decided not to participate in the Western Sydney Airport. Citi believes the decision is in the best interest of shareholders and highlights a disciplined approach to capital allocation.

Having analysed various multi-airport systems in the world, Citi has not seen any erosion in the pricing power of the primary airport but an improvement in the underlying passenger mix.

While earnings estimates are unchanged, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Buy and reduces the target to $7.02 from $7.14.

TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TEN)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/4/0

Morgan Stanley acknowledges its positive view on the stock was wrong and, with the benefit of hindsight, it should have been bearish. The positive thesis was based on a forecast lift in audience and advertising revenue share. The first part has materialised but the second has not.

Morgan Stanley notes the first half results confirm a full year loss amid uncertainty over the renewal of the company's bank facility. While the stock  is trading at a substantial discount to peers, the broker observes the risks are notably much higher.

Rating is downgraded to Equal -weighted from Overweight. Target is reduced to $0.40 from $2.50. Attractive industry view retained.

VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED ((VOC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank and Downgrade to Reduce from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/7/1

The company has reduced FY17 guidance following an accounting review of contracts. Ord Minnett believes the company's national fibre network assets, low market share and steady consumer broadband margins position it well in an otherwise challenging sector.

Nevertheless, the continued exodus of senior managers and numerous accounting revisions force the broker to the sidelines. Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target to $3.50 from $5.25.

With revenue falling short of expectations Citi no longer has confidence that the company will be able to deliver on the full potential of its recently combined businesses.

The broker downgrades FY17-19 forecasts for earnings per share by -22-28%. The company has downgraded FY17 EBITDA guidance by -17%, citing multiple issues, including an accounting review of contract terms and larger than forecasts billings.

Citi downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $6.00.

UBS has noted two additional negative aspects after the company's update. The company has indicated free cash flow conversion will be weak in the third quarter, perhaps even weaker than the first half.  The net debt to EBITDA covenant will become more onerous, although the future profile is undisclosed.

The broker is more positive about the suggestion that around $400m in EBITDA could be the base for FY18, although estimates a more conservative $360-370m.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target is reduced to $2.50 from $5.00.

The company provided a disappointing update and, given the size of downgrades over a short period of time, Macquarie moves to Neutral from Outperform.This is reflecting ongoing uncertainty over the operating side of the business.

The changed accounting approach compounds the downgrade, but also highlights for the broker that the company was relying on a very significant contribution from lumpy network sales in the second half in order to meet guidance. Target is reduced to $3.00 from $5.00.

Deutsche Bank's response to Vocus' latest profit warning is perhaps best represented by a drop in target to $2.23 from $7.05. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

The broker cites low earnings growth, limited earnings visibility, a weak balance sheet and minimal total shareholder return. Acquisition synergies are on track but more will need to be spent to improve service delivery, processes and technology platforms.

The FY18 outlook appears challenging, the broker suggests.

Morgans is troubled by a number of items in the company's trading update, including an underlying decline in EBITDA, and negative free cash flow in the second half which has pushed debt levels higher.

While there is long-term upside risk and corporate appeal in the stock it seems to the broker the share price may worsen before it improves.

The broker downgrades to Reduce from Hold and lowers the target to $1.97 from $3.64.

VILLAGE ROADSHOW LIMITED ((VRL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/4/0

The admission that Gold Coast theme parks are not seeing the numbers of visitors that would have been expected pre-Dreamworld disaster has triggered yet another downgrade to forecasts. On Ord Minnett's revised numbers this translates into a debt coverage problem. Hence asset sales now have become a must, suggest the analysts.

In addition, with theme park trading weak into the all-important May/June annual pass pre-sale period, Ord Minnett analysts see significant uncertainty overhanging the division into FY18. Downgrade to Hold from Buy. Price target tumbles to $3.53 from $4.63.

WOOLWORTHS LIMITED ((WOW)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/4

Woolworths' strong March Q sales highlight the benefits of price reinvestment and improved store execution over the last 18 months, Macquarie suggests. A positive result in NZ should not be overlooked either. Big W nevertheless remains a drag, and the broker suggests both Big W and Target need to validate their economic viability soon.

Despite the impressive sales improvement, Macquarie believes the market is pricing in an unlikely earnings recovery in food in the face of increasing competition. Downgrade to Underperform. Target lifts to $26.20 from $25.60.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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