Rudi’s View: TechnologyOne, CSL, Banks

This story features CSL LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CSL

In this week's Weekly Insights (this is the second part):

-New Focus For A Changing World
-Conviction List: Morgan Stanley, Ord Minnett, Morgans, Shaw
-CBA And The Premium Gone (Vol 5)
-TechnologyOne: A Stumble, Not A Fall
-Rudi On BoardRoomRadio
-All-Weather Model Portfolio
-Rudi On TV
-Rudi On Tour

[Non-highlighted items appeared in Wednesday's part one, see website]

Conviction List: Morgan Stanley, Ord Minnett, Morgans, Shaw

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Morgan Stanley's "Australia Sustainable Leaders Conviction List" has added CSL ((CSL)) and removed none. The broader "Australia Conviction List" has added Lend Lease ((LLC)) and Arena REIT ((ARF)) while removing Aveo Group ((AOG)), Evolution Mining ((EVN)) and Sonic Healthcare ((SHL)).

Including those changes, the Australia Conviction List now contains 19 inclusions. Apart from Lend Lease and Arena REIT, these are: Ansell ((ANN)), ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), BHP ((BHP)), Cochlear ((COH)), Domino's Pizza ((DMP)), Goodman Group ((GMG)), Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)), InvoCare ((IVC)), Macquarie Atlas Roads ((MQA)), Origin Energy ((ORG)), Rio Tinto ((RIO)), Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH)), TPG Telecom ((TPM)), Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE)), Westpac ((WBC)), Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)) and WorleyParsons ((WOR)).

Other changes made to specific Conviction Lists are the addition of IDP Education ((IEL)) to the "Emerging Companies Conviction List", alongside the removal of Aveo Group. Evolution Mining ((EVN)) has been removed from the "Resources Conviction List", while Mineral Resources ((MIN)) has been added.

The "Income Conviction List" swapped ANZ Bank (out) for Westpac (in).

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Emerging companies analysts at Ord Minnett have made no changes to their "Key Picks" following a general update last week. Top Pick remains salmon producer Huon Aquaculture ((HUO)) with Ord Minnett's forecasts sitting above market consensus. Bottom Pick remains Collection House ((CLH)) which the broker sees as constrained due to accountancy changes and balance sheet gearing near 40%.

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Stockbroker Morgans has now removed Australian Finance Group ((AFG)) from its High Conviction List which, even after this removal, remains heavily biased towards ex-ASX100 stocks. Remaining on the list are ResMed ((RMD)), Westpac ((WBC)) and Oil Search ((OSH)) for ASX100 stocks; and Motorcycle Holdings ((MTO)), Aventus Retail Property ((AVN)), NextDC ((NXT)), Bapcor ((BAP)) and PWR Holdings ((PWH)) outside the top-100.

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Over at Shaw and Partners, the Large Cap Portfolio continues to outperform on the back of an Overweight positioning in banks, which is kept intact because the sector is expected to perform well as yet another dividend payout is looming. Plus the upcoming results should display robust performances overall. Shaw is ready to pull the plug on its resources exposure but thus far the mantra remains: ready, but not yet.

The portfolio has closed its underweight position to food retailing and slimmed down its exposure to gold. Lend Lease (out) has been swapped for Stockland Group ((SGP)), while QBE Insurance ((QBE)) was also sold in favour of buying shares in Westpac ((WBC)), Oil Search ((OSH)) and Woodside Petroleum ((WPL)).

Note to paying subscribers: updates on Conviction Calls have been a regular feature in my Weekly Insights stories since early February this year, with only a rare exception. For past updates: see Rudi's Views on the FNArena website.

CBA And The Premium Gone (Vol 5)

History shows bank stocks that are about to pay out dividends are most likely to appreciate in share price ahead of the actual event. This should be common knowledge, but apparently it is not, judging by the statistics and the hullabaloo that accompany similar predictions made, and then copied and re-published, across the Australian finance sector.

I guess, at times, pointing out the obvious makes one look really, really smart. Or is it that investors simply want to be reminded, over and over again?

CLSA's Brian Johnson believes the banks are under pressure to keep repricing home loans upwards to avoid their Net Interest Margin, otherwise known as NIM, to fade. He suspects a direct correlation with banks commanding higher payments from investor loans and from interest only mortgages, and a notable slowing in retail sales recently.

And herein lies the sector's dilemma: how far can they push it?

Another piece of useful research was released by Goldman Sachs in the final week of September. Trying to assess potential longer term implications from CommBank's Austrac scandal, the analysts have taken an international view of investigating similar precedents among CBA's peers. The conclusions are:

1. Banks underperform their peers by an average -20% over the twelve months after the incident
2. In general terms, underperformance in first 3-4 months is due to PE contraction, next follows EPS downgrades

Two observations regarding CommBank stand out:

1. CBA's de-rating during first 35 days post event is amongst the most pronounced in comparison with the survey
2. CBA's absolute and relative EPS changes thus far are among the best in comparison with the survey

I'd also argue the banks are once again doing the RBA's job, without governor Lowe & Co actually having to do anything. Is it any coincidence Morgan Stanley has released five research reports on retail sales and consumer stocks in less than one week?

Hint: Morgan Stanley is not optimistic about consumer spending in the year ahead. The broker's Model Portfolio remains underweight consumer, housing-linked and banks.

TechnologyOne: A Stumble, Not A Fall

One of the most difficult assessments to make in the share market is whether a bad development, like a profit warning, has now ruined the longer term investment story, or not?

I recall iSentia ((ISD)) never genuinely living up to expectations after a warmly welcomed ASX listing. Those little disappointments should have rung alarm bells over what was eventually yet to come: the big profit warning. The share price has since recovered from its bottom lows reached earlier this year, but it remains far off the prices seen last year and prior; and those share prices already seemed low at that time.

The question would have popped up again late last month when TechnologyOne ((TNE)), hailed by myself as one of the most consistent performers on the ASX, issued a warning it was not going to achieve its guidance for 10-15% EPS growth this year. Instead, three separate disappointing developments are keeping growth contained to 7-9%.

Most stockbroking analysts covering the stock consider this a rare one-off event and I tend to agree. For me, the key sentence in the company's statement was the fact that, underlying, the business is growing at 20%. Already, Bell Potter has upgraded the stock to a Buy with a slightly lowered price target of $5.50.

I think the share market is taking a similar view, observing the share price has been gradually nibbling its way back up after the initial -11% sell down. The FNArena Vested Equities All-Weather Model Portfolio owns shares in TechnologyOne and I can confirm we haven't even thought once about selling.

Rudi On BoardRoomRadio

Fresh new interview, done on Tuesday:

https://boardroom.media/broadcast/?eid=59dc644b43412343aeab2ed9

2016 – L'Année Extraordinaire

It was quite the exceptional year, 2016, and I did grab the opportunity to write down my observations and offer investors today the opportunity to look back, relive the moments and draw some hard conclusions about investing in the world today.

If you are a paid subscriber to FNArena, and you still haven't downloaded your copy, all you have to do is visit the website, look up "Special Reports" and download your very own copy of "Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Bear. Chronicles of 2016, A Veritable Year Extraordinaire" (in PDF).

For all others who still haven't been convinced, eBook copies are for sale on Amazon and many other online channels. You'll have to visit a foreign Amazon website to also find the print book version.
 

All-Weather Model Portfolio

In partnership with Queensland based Vested Equities, FNArena manages an All-Weather Model Portfolio based upon my post-GFC research. The idea is to offer diversification away from banks and resources stocks which are so dominant in Australia, while also providing ongoing real time evidence into the validity of my research into All-Weather Performers.

This All-Weather Model Portfolio is available through Self-Managed Accounts (SMAs) on the Praemium platform. For more info: info@fnarena.com

Rudi On TV

This week my appearances on the Sky Business channel are scheduled as follows:

-Tuesday, 11.15am Skype-link to discuss broker calls
-Thursday, noon-2pm, Trading Day Live
-Thursday, between 7-8pm interview on Switzer TV with Paul Rickard
-Friday, 11.15am Skype-link to discuss broker calls

Rudi On Tour

– I will be presenting in Adelaide on November 14th to members of Australian Investors Association and other investors, 7pm inside the Fullarton Community Centre, 411 Fullarton Rd, Fullarton. Title of presentation: Investing In A Slow Growing World – An Update

(This story was written on Monday 9th October, 2017. The first part was published on the day in the form of an email to paying subscribers at FNArena and then republished as a story on the website on Wednesday. This is the second part).

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions. All views are mine and not by association FNArena's – see disclaimer on the website.

In addition, since FNArena runs a Model Portfolio based upon my research on All-Weather Performers it is more than likely that stocks mentioned are included in this Model Portfolio. For all questions about this: info@fnarena.com or via the direct messaging system on the website).

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BONUS PUBLICATIONS FOR FNARENA SUBSCRIBERS

Paid subscribers to FNArena (6 and 12 mnths) receive several bonus publications, at no extra cost, including:

– The AUD and the Australian Share Market (which stocks benefit from a weaker AUD, and which ones don't?)
– Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, January 2013 (The rationale behind investing in stocks that perform irrespective of the overall investment climate)
– Make Risk Your Friend. Finding All-Weather Performers, December 2014 (The follow-up that accounts for an ever changing world and updated stock selection)
– Change. Investing in a Low Growth World. eBook that sells through Amazon and other channels. Tackles the main issues impacting on investment strategies today and the world of tomorrow.
– Who's Afraid Of The Big Bad Bear? eBook and Book (print) available through Amazon and other channels. Your chance to relive 2016, and become a wiser investor along the way.

Subscriptions cost $380 for twelve months or $210 for six and can be purchased here (depending on your status, a subscription to FNArena might be tax deductible): https://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_signup

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi's View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of 'Rudi's View'. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi's View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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