Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 26-03-21

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Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday March 22 to Friday March 26, 2021
Total Upgrades: 11
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 54.05%; Hold 38.33%; Sell 7.62%

For the week ending Friday 26 March there were eleven upgrades and six downgrades to ASX-listed companies by brokers in the FNArena database.

Macquarie downgraded Resolute Mining to Sell from Buy while Citi downgraded to Neutral from Buy after the company was advised to cease all activities after Ghana’s Minerals Commission advised its lease on the Bibani gold mine had been terminated. The impact on the slated US$105m Bibiani divestment to Chifeng at this stage is unknown. The termination of the lease is unexpected and the company is seeking legal advice.

GrainCorp sits atop the table for the largest percentage increase in target price by brokers last week. This comes after management revealed new operating initiatives are expected to generate an additional $25m in annualised operating earnings by 2023-24. International expansion is expected to contribute a further $15m by 2022. Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral while Morgans notes no other ASX-listed agribusiness has greater leverage to improved seasonal conditions on the east coast of Australia and a bumper grain crop.

Next on the table was Xero. Credit Suisse upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and points out the share price had deflated since a strong rally in late 2020 while recent data shows four months of more than 20% revenue growth.

Unibail-Rodamco Westfield had the largest percentage fall to target price after Ord Minnett downgraded to Sell from Hold as the broker’s European research counterparts have recently reduced their target price by -13%, which partly reflected  the impact of a stronger Australian dollar.

Despite releasing pre-announced first half results, Citi downgraded the rating for Sigma Healthcare to Neutral from Buy on valuation concerns and lowered its target price. Macquarie sees medium-term risks from a reliance on sales to Chemist Warehouse.

Also in defiance of a first half earnings beat, Credit Suisse downgraded Domain Holdings to Neutral from Outperform on management guidance for FY21 total costs that will be significantly higher than expected. Costs are also expected to step up in FY22 on account of the reversal of the JobKeeper/Zipline benefit.

Afterpay headed the list last week for the largest percentage fall in earnings forecasts by brokers in the FNArena database. Macquarie lowered the terminal growth rate forecast to 3% from 4.5% and cut the target to $120 from $140. No cause for panic over a potential period of industry consolidation though, as the broker expects a better longer-term outlook afterwards.

Insurance Australia Group experienced the second largest decline in broker earnings forecasts. Of the four brokers’ updates, two felt claims relating to the recent NSW floods were manageable, one felt they could lead to a catastrophe event and add to reinsurance pricing pressure while Credit Suisse resumed coverage with an Outperform rating.

Senex Energy was the leader in terms of positive revision to broker earnings forecasts for the week. However, this should be ignored as brokers adjusted their financial models for a company share consolidation.

The real ‘leader’ was New Hope Corporation after first half earnings and a four cent dividend exceeded broker forecasts. This was driven by higher than expected realised prices and a cost reduction at Bengalla. Thermal coal prices have increased around 100% since the lows of mid- 2020. 

Brickworks would have been an interested observer of New Hope’s result, given a 39.4% interest in Washington H. Soul Pattison, which in turn owns 61.1 % of the coal company. Brokers upgraded earnings forecasts after first half results for Brickworks showed stronger contributions from the Investments and Property segments though building products North America was weaker than expected.

Readers will recall from above that Sigma Healthcare was downgraded by Credit Suisse to Neutral from Buy on valuation grounds. The company also experienced a reduction in the average target price by brokers in the FNArena database. This, of course, does not preclude a simultaneous lift in average earnings forecasts by those same brokers.  

Total Buy recommendations take up 54.05% of the total, versus 38.33% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 7.62%.

Upgrade

AGL ENERGY LIMITED ((AGL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/3

AGL Energy flagged a potential structural change with the potential separation of Loy Yang A (LYA). Macquarie considers this possible in specie distribution a positive as it broadens the investment appeal of the stock.

A separate and low-geared LYA would have a fully franked yield close to 4.0-4.5%, calculates the broker, and should have surplus cash flow to engage in share buybacks.

The analyst increases the rating to Neutral from Underperform on the potential strategic shift. Additionally, current power prices are considered to be capturing the impact of government policy and oversupply. Target price reduces to $9.84 from $10.85.

BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Macquarie believes the regional banks are more leveraged to improving deposit pricing and following a period of underperformance upgrades Bendigo & Adelaide Bank to Outperform from Neutral.

The main downside risk stems from smaller margin benefits from improved pricing compared with estimates. Estimates for earnings per share are increased by up to 7% for FY21-23. Target is raised to $11.00 from $10.25.

COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA ((CBA)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/5/2

Macquarie earnings estimates for the major banks by 1-2%. While stretched valuations and longer-term headwinds make it difficult to be bullish, the broker recognises the relative appeal of banks in the current environment.

Macquarie switches its preference to regional banks over the majors while upgrading Commonwealth Bank to Neutral from Underperform following recent underperformance. Target is raised to $81.50 from $80.00.

CSL LIMITED ((CSL)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Today's upgrade by Credit Suisse is eye-catching for two reasons: firstly, the broker's forecasts for FY22 sit -11% below market consensus, with the analysts not excluding market consensus remains cum further downgrades.

Secondly, Credit Suisse addresses the upcoming competition threat from argenx FcRn CIDP product-in-development which could, theoretically, upend the global plasma market.

Bottom line: Credit Suisse believes even if FcRn would prove extremely successful, global plasma would regardless continue growing. The broker has formulated scenarios of 10% per annum or 7% growth per annum (bear case).

Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $315 (versus $320 previously). Small changes have been made to forecasts.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Credit Suisse has increased medium-term forecasts to align with the company's new guidance for through-the-cycle earnings. The broker also upgrades FY22 amid expectations of another above-average east coast crop.

The broker has frequently argued that the market has underrated cost reductions over recent years while noting the addition of capacity to the east coast grain industry peaked several years ago. This has created a stable competitive environment.

Credit Suisse upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and raises the target to $5.59 from $5.06.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/4/0

While uncertainty remains on what cash margins Netwealth and Hub24 will be able to earn in the future, the broker believes further downside risk is limited and the reduction in cash margins is to more sustainable levels.

The broker expects both platforms will deliver strong earnings growth. Netwealth offers less execution risk, the broker notes, as Hub24 has to bed down acquisitions, but Hub offers greater earnings leverage.

Netwealth upgraded to Buy from Neutral. The depression in cash margins takes the target down to $16.10 from $16.95.

PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((PMV)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Premier Investments reported a first-half FY21 net profit of $188.2m, above Ord Minnett’s forecast of $176m.

Premier Retail operating earnings at $237.8m came in above the broker's $230.4m estimate and guidance of $221–233m. An interim dividend of 34c was declared which was below Ord Minnett's 44c expectation.

In the broker's view, Premier Retail operating income margin expansion and Smiggle providing leverage to reopening following covid will position Premier Investments well to manage a difficult comparable period in some brands especially Peter Alexander from 2020.

Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold with the target price rising to $27 from $24.

POLYNOVO LIMITED ((PNV)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Macquarie continues to believe Polynovo is well-positioned to increase its share within existing indications. Moreover, entry into new indications with sizeable markets, such as chronic wounds and hernia, should support growth over the medium to longer term.

There is a degree of short-term uncertainty related to the pandemic, the broker acknowledges. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is raised to $3.20 from $2.75.

REA GROUP LIMITED ((REA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Macquarie, after surveying real estate agents nationally to understand their preferences regarding REA Group's and Domain Holdings' platforms, asserts the shift in mix is benefiting the former.

The survey points to usage of higher depth tiers being greater for REA Group. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target is lifted to $171.70 from $158.00.

Macquarie also believes REA Group can lift prices because of a larger audience and capture a larger share of marketing budgets.

WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Macquarie assesses the pandemic-affected downgrade is now behind the business and expects revenue growth will moderate to 22% out to FY23, driven by higher base and fewer acquisitions.

Slower growth will allow the company to focus on quality. Macquarie upgrades FY21 growth estimates and, transferring coverage to another analyst, upgrades the rating to Outperform from Neutral. Target is $33.

XERO LIMITED ((XRO)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Credit Suisse welcomes the recent Planday acquisition, believing the segment has attractive metrics which complement the existing business. The strong share price rally late in 2020 disconnected the stock from fundamentals, assures the broker.

The share price has deflated since and is currently slightly below where it was mid November, Credit Suisse observes. The broker believes Planday is an attractive acquisition and, amid further positive data points, the broker suggests Xero has experienced four months of more than 20% revenue growth, based on positive industry data.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target is raised to $136 from $119.

Downgrade

DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((DHG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Macquarie, after surveying real estate agents nationally to understand their preferences regarding REA Group's and Domain Holdings' platforms, asserts the shift in mix is benefiting the former.

The survey points to usage of higher depth tiers being greater for REA Group. The broker downgrades Domain Holdings to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $4.33 from $5.81.

Strong revenue growth from the residential cycle is considered a positive but this is offset by relatively softer yield growth, in the broker's view.

RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/1/1

Resolute Mining has received notice from Ghana's minerals commission advising that its lease on the Bibiani gold mine has been terminated. The company has been advised to cease all activities.

Resolute Mining was in the process of selling Bibiani to Chifeng Jilong and close the deal this month. The termination of the lease is unexpected and the company is seeking clarification.

Macquarie suspects it is unlikely the sale will go ahead, at least in its current form. The sale is removed from the broker's estimates and the rating is downgraded to Underperform from Outperform. Target is reduced to $0.55 from $1.00.

Citi cuts the rating to Neutral (high risk) from Buy (high risk) and reduces the target to $0.75 from $0.90 after news of the termination of the mining lease for Bibiani. The impact on the slated US$105m Bibiani divestment to Chifeng at this stage is unknown.

Activities at Bibiani (Ghana) are to cease after the termination. The analyst is disappointed, to say the least, especially when this news is coupled with recent industrial action at Syama and the contested circa US$66m in VAT and other tax balances in Mali.

The company is seeking legal advice regarding validity, appeal rights and any recourse. Citi still expects the company can meet its debt repayment obligations either way without the need for capital though the outlook could change on gold weakness or further geopolitical events.

SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Citi observes the FY21 result was heavily affected by the pandemic, restructuring and the start of the Chemist Warehouse contract. Sigma Healthcare has reiterated an underlying operating earnings target of $100m for FY23.

Citi considers the shares fully valued and downgrades to Neutral from Buy. Management has indicated a focus on M&A now there is greater capacity on the balance sheet.

The focus is also on growth and dividends as opposed to a share buyback although this remains an option. Target is reduced to $0.70 from $0.75.

UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD ((URW)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/3

Ord Minnett's European research counterparts have recently reduced their target for Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield by -13%. As a result the broker lowers its target to $3.70 from $4.50. This also reflects the impact of a stronger Australian dollar.

As the stock is trading at a significant premium to the new target the rating is downgraded to Sell from Hold.

The broker's counterparts believe the outlook is cloudy as the company is looking to execute on a challenging de-leveraging plan.

Yet, increased confidence surrounding shopping centres should emerge as the pandemic wanes, supporting the shares.

WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Increasingly, Macquarie believes upside risk from cost reductions are being captured in estimates. The broker is cautious about the significant management turnover and the effect on the short-term outlook.

Given relative outperformance recently, the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform. The main downside stems from an inability to prevent market share losses without sacrificing margins. Target is raised to $25.75 from $25.50.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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