Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 11, 2023

This story features AMCOR PLC, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMC

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AMC   CAR   CKF   CLU   CRD   DHG   FLT   HUB   IMD   JBH   JHG   JIN   MIN   MXI   NEC   NWC   OML (2)   RHC (2)   SUL (2)   SWM  

AMC    AMCOR PLC

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $15.23

Jarden rates ((AMC)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Amcor has downgraded FY23 guidance for earnings per share by -5% and FY24-25 by -6-8%. The outlook also includes expectations for no organic growth in FY23, which Jarden observes was a key concern for investors.

The broker expects organic earnings growth can return in FY24 but this is contingent on improving volume and the price/cost equation normalising and will be a big ask for Amcor.

Following a drop in the share price the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underweight and lowers the target to $15.45 from $16.50.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $15.45 Current Price is $15.23 Difference: $0.22
If AMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.53, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.25 cents and EPS of 107.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 70.32 cents and EPS of 108.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.9, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAR    CARSALES.COM LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $23.04

Jarden rates ((CAR)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden is concerned about the macro economic impact on the car market and in the short term, while suspecting Carsales is likely to surprise to the upside, with the valuation at near-term highs, remains cautious.

A spike in demand for used car sales amid supply chain constraints during the pandemic means it is not clear if a softer economic environment will lead to a downturn in this area.

The broker notes recent car buying intentions have become more subdued and car financing has plateaued. If volumes were to fall -10% the broker believes Carsales would need to put up prices by 10%.

In sum, the Underweight rating is retained and the target price is kept at $21.00.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $23.04 Difference: minus $2.04 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $25.17, suggesting upside of 9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 54.80 cents and EPS of 71.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.4, implying annual growth of 33.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 59.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 79.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.8, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 65.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $9.00

Wilsons rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons gleans an encouraging read for 2H sales growth for Collins Foods via 1Q results by Yum!Brands in the US which showed reasonably stable activity for KFC Australia. 

The analyst also notes the sales result and associated commentary for KFC Europe was encouraging, which also has positive implications for the overseas operations of Collins Foods.

The broker currently forecasts Collins Foods' same store sales growth for the 2H will be broadly in line with the 1H.

The Overweight rating and $11.49 target are retained.

This report was published on May 5, 2023.

Target price is $11.49 Current Price is $9.00 Difference: $2.49
If CKF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.80, suggesting downside of -2.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.50 cents and EPS of 47.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.9, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLU    CLUEY LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CLU)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Cluey reported revenue growth of 2% in the March quarter with gross profit margins of 57% that benefited from blended price rises, lower average tutor to rates and reduced discounting. The company has $19m in hand.

Canaccord Genuity notes the enterprise value of just $5m that signals investors believe the company requires further capital and reduces FY23 and FY24 forecasts for revenue by -17% and -27%, respectively.

Target is reduced to $0.30 from $1.00 after incorporating the lower revenue growth profile and the recent dilutive capital raising. Speculative Buy rating maintained.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.18
If CLU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.48.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.29.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD    CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.66

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CRD)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Conrad Asia Energy remains the preferred exposure to gas in small caps for Canaccord Genuity. The company has opened a data room for the partial divestment of its interest in Mako, currently 76.5%. Bids received so far have been "encouraging", the broker notes.

Negotiation of the key terms for the gas sales agreement between a Singapore buyer and the Indonesian regulator are expected to be finalised in the current quarter and, in the broker's view, the company should be able to take advantage of an improved and favourable pricing environment amid strong worldwide demand for gas and low supply.

Speculative Buy rating and $2.60 target maintained.

This report was published on May 2, 2023.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.94
If CRD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.42.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 11.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.90.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs lowers its FY23-25 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts for Domain Holdings Australia by -3-7%, which reduces its target by -4% to $3.50.

While activity has picked up in the last few months for both Domain and REA Group ((REA)), the analyst points out it remains below prior peaks.

A -4% decline in 3Q revenue was marginally softer than the analyst forecast due to weaker listings.

Despite sustained listing weakness, Goldman Sachs was surprised by costs that were higher-than-expected in the period. The Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.32
If DHG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of 13.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.0, implying annual growth of 49.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT    FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $21.40

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden notes the tightening of guidance which has indicated the travel sector continues to perform well. Flight Centre Travel now expects EBITDA of $270-290m.

Importantly, the pre-tax profit margin target of 2% has been reiterated for FY25. The stock remains one of the broker's key picks in the travel sector and a Buy rating is maintained. Target is steady at $21.40.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $21.40 Current Price is $21.40 Difference: $0
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting downside of -1.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 112.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.6, implying annual growth of 192.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $27.90

Jarden rates ((HUB)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden finds the proposed acquisition of myprosperity by Hub24 strategically sensible, providing a single client view across the custodial/non-custodial offerings and enhancing efficiencies.

While the $40m outlay is only 2% of the market capitalisation, the broker acknowledges meaningful benefits appear long dated and dependent on significant subscriber growth.

As a result, with dilution to earnings per share over FY24-25 and lingering uncertainty about retail flow momentum, there is only modest value upside and a Neutral rating is maintained. Target is reduced to $28.35 from $28.50.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $28.35 Current Price is $27.90 Difference: $0.45
If HUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.64, suggesting upside of 17.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 30.90 cents and EPS of 66.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 231.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.40 cents and EPS of 77.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMD    IMDEX LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.08

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IMD)) as Buy (1) –

The market update from Imdex highlighted a number of challenges which have reinforced Canaccord Genuity's view that the second half will be a low point in the company's growth.

Commentary has pointed to weather events, cost inflation and subdued activity by junior miners.

The broker retains a Buy rating, predicated on a strengthening outlook and improving sentiment around key commodities. Target is reduced to $2.86 from $2.93.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $2.86 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.78
If IMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.85, suggesting upside of 36.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.0, implying annual growth of 26.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.40 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.8, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $45.87

Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden believes JB Hi-Fi is executing well and a stronger sales result for the March quarter suggests significant share gains. The broker had expected a more material slowdown, owing to a step up in promotional activity and generally weaker household goods numbers.

Going forward, Jarden is still cautious but notes improving customer engagement with JB Hi-Fi could mean there is some share price upside for the near term.

Nevertheless, structural headwinds exist for the medium term and the broker's Underweight rating is unchanged. Target rises to $41.40 from $39.00.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $41.40 Current Price is $45.87 Difference: minus $4.47 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $45.78, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 281.00 cents and EPS of 472.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 459.8, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 301.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 209.00 cents and EPS of 349.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.1, implying annual growth of -25.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 224.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHG    JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $39.44

Jarden rates ((JHG)) as Underweight (4) –

First quarter operating income was broadly in line with Jarden's estimates. Janus Henderson reported its first quarter of net inflows since the merger in mid 2017, aided by institutional inflows in equities and fixed income.

Still, Jarden is cautious as the company has guided only to one extra potential quarter of inflows over the next 1-2 years. Jarden retains an Underweight rating and raises the target to $33.25 from $30.40.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $33.25 Current Price is $39.44 Difference: minus $6.19 (current price is over target).
If JHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $39.35, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 229.99 cents and EPS of 305.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 320.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 235.88 cents and EPS of 325.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 343.6, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $14.12

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jumbo Interactive has flagged lower jackpots in the second half to date.

With jackpots representing a significant driver of lottery retailing ticket sales, management has proactively mitigated the earnings impact by targeting what it can control, Jarden observes, including marketing costs and deferring new hires and compensation accruals.

The broker updates its FY23 forecasts, lowering estimates for earnings per share by -7%. To become more positive over the short term Jarden would look for improved jackpot frequency and further progress on recently acquired business.

Neutral maintained. Target rises to $15.16 from $14.49.

Jarden transfers coverage of Jumbo Interactive to Rohan Gallagher.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $15.16 Current Price is $14.12 Difference: $1.04
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting upside of 29.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 54.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.3, implying annual growth of 8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 71.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.6, implying annual growth of 37.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $72.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

Following 3Q results, Goldman Sachs downgrades its rating for Mineral Resources to Sell from Neutral due to lower-than-expected volumes for iron ore, mining services and lithium, as well as lower realised prices for lithium.

Delays to the two lithium expansion projects at Mt Marion and Wodgina were also disappointing, in the analyst's view.

Moreover, management increased FY23 cost guidance at Mt Marion and now anticipates iron ore costs will be at the top-end of
the guidance range for both the Pilbara and Yilgarn mines.

The broker's target falls to $53 from $75 after also incorporating its recently lowered lithium price forecasts for FY24.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $53.00 Current Price is $72.53 Difference: minus $19.53 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $91.43, suggesting upside of 26.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 378.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 519.9, implying annual growth of 181.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 294.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 165.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1066.6, implying annual growth of 105.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 444.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MXI    MAXIPARTS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.36

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MXI)) as Buy (1) –

MaxiPARTS will acquire an 80% interest in Forch Australia for $9.7m. Canaccord Genuity observes the latter is a distributor of workshop consumables, which provides the company with an adjacent product opportunity and immediate improvements to profit margins, earnings accretion as well as potential scale.

Canaccord Genuity estimates FY24 and FY25 accretion to earnings per share of 14% and 16%, respectively. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $4.22 from $3.75.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $4.22 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $1.86
If MXI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC    NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $1.98

Goldman Sachs rates ((NEC)) as Buy (1) –

Nine Entertainment's 3Q results were weaker than Goldman Sachs forecast, reflecting a deterioration in the free-to-air advertising market in the 2H of FY23. It's felt this deterioration will remain a headwind leading into FY24.

The broker lowers its FY23-25 earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -4-5% and its target falls to $2.40 from $2.45. 

The Buy rating is retained due to both valuation support and the quality of the company's assets.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.98 Difference: $0.425
If NEC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.45, suggesting upside of 23.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of -8.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWC    NEW WORLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.04

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NWC)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

New World Resources has the findings from its enhanced scoping study for the Antler copper project in Arizona. Canaccord Genuity suspects Antler will be constrained in size by the underground mine, and stockpile management will be employed to ease material through a 1.5mtpa plant without the need for additional declines.

A key risk, in the broker's opinion, is permit timeframes and up to 24 months is envisaged for approvals because of delays due to the requirement for undertaking biological data collections in the northern spring.

Speculative Buy rating retained. Target is steady at $0.18.

This report was published on May 2, 2023.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.04 Difference: $0.141
If NWC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 362% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML    OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.26

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OML)) as Buy (1) –

oOh!media's March quarter trading update was at odds with the data for the outdoor sector overall, Canaccord Genuity observes, and was therefore a surprise to the market.

The company reported 3% growth in revenue against the prior corresponding quarter, which the broker observes was below the rate reported in February at the 2022 result. April appeared soft as well although the outlook for May and June seems better.

The broker lowers earnings forecasts as a result of the update but finds value in the shares which have been heavily sold off. Buy rating maintained. Target is reduced to $1.75 from $1.95.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $1.75 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.49
If OML meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 27.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 45.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 22.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((OML)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) –

oOh!media's 1Q trading update was softer than Goldman Sachs expected, as was outlook commentary for gross profit margins into FY23 and FY24.

Trading softened significantly in March, advised management, and 1Q revenues only grew by 3%, which is lower than industry growth in A&NZ, observe the analysts.

The broker considers the 2Q outlook is weak (slightly up on the previous corresponding period), with management noting April media revenue was particularly soft which should be offset by a strong May and June. 

Goldman Sachs lowers its target by -32% to $1.30 and downgrades its rating to Neutral from Buy.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.04
If OML meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 27.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 9.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.7, implying annual growth of 45.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 22.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $61.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((RHC)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

In the wake of Ramsay Health Care's 3Q results, Goldman Sachs believes consensus expectations are still too high and pre-covid profitability is no longer attainable. 

The earnings (EBIT) margin deteriorated materially in the 3Q, in a period that was widely expected to sequentially improve, notes the broker. The rating is lowered to Sell from Neutral and the target reduced to $54 from $64.

The analyst believes the company's valuation skews the risk/reward to the downside, particularly at a time when mix/cost headwinds are weighing.

The broker's FY23-25 earnings (EBIT) forecasts are lowered by over -10% to partly reflect greater than anticipated margin pressures from a structurally higher cost base. 

Also, uncertainty around potential government financial support is impacting offshore profit visibility, according to Goldmans.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $61.02 Difference: minus $7.02 (current price is over target).
If RHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $66.73, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 103.00 cents and EPS of 142.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.3, implying annual growth of 26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 139.00 cents and EPS of 192.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.3, implying annual growth of 50.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Overweight (2) –

Ramsay Health Care disappointed Jarden with its March quarter update as, despite an improvement in the top line, there was no apparent margin leverage. The biggest weakness was the EBITDA margin in Asia-Pacific.

The broker notes there are some encouraging signs in the UK in terms of NHS and private pay volumes.

Despite the concerns Jarden continues to expect the top line will improve and margins alongside and this underpins an Overweight rating. Target is reduced to $68.68 from $69.72.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $68.68 Current Price is $61.02 Difference: $7.66
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $66.73, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 136.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 147.3, implying annual growth of 26.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 148.70 cents and EPS of 192.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.3, implying annual growth of 50.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $12.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUL)) as Buy (1) –

Super Retail's 3Q trading update revealed like-for-like sales growth well in advance of the forecast by Goldman Sachs, with strong results across all four divisions.

The analysts suggest the apparent resilience in the current macroeconomic backdrop derives from a high level of steadfast customers, incentivised by loyalty programs.

Based on the strength of the gross profit margin (management guided to a -10bps fall in the 2H from the 1H), the broker deduces earnings (EBIT) will likely exceed its forecasts for FY23 and be in line with consensus.

The target rises to $14.90 from $14.60. Buy.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $14.90 Current Price is $12.58 Difference: $2.32
If SUL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.1, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.6, implying annual growth of -18.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((SUL)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

Jarden found Super Retail's update for the second half mixed, with sales ahead of expectations while the gross margin was weaker and costs higher.

The broker believes a combination of a softening top line, increasing promotions and rising costs will mean increased earnings risk, particularly when factoring in the competition over the medium term from the likes of Amazon, DTC and Anaconda.

The valuation is considered full and the rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral. Target is reduced to $12.10 from $12.50.

This report was published on May 3, 2023.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $12.58 Difference: minus $0.48 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $13.05, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 117.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 114.1, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.6, implying annual growth of -18.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM    SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.35

Goldman Sachs rates ((SWM)) as Sell (5) –

Seven West Media's 3Q results were weaker than Goldman Sachs forecast, reflecting a deterioration in the free-to-air advertising market in the 2H of FY23. It's felt this deterioration will remain a headwind leading into FY24.

While management announced -$15-20m of temporary cost savings, offsetting the majority of the weaker advertising market impact in FY23, the broker lowers its FY24 earnings estimate on lower forecast revenue. The target falls to 41c from 43c 

The Sell rating is retained.

This report was published on May 4, 2023.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.35 Difference: $0.055
If SWM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.59, suggesting upside of 64.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of -16.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of -14.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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