Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition - Jul 25, 2023

Daily Market Reports | Jul 25 2023

This story features ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABP ACL ANP ARF AWC BHP BWP CBA CHC CIP CLW CNI COF CQE CQR DXS EVN FLT GMG GPT HDN HMC INA LIC MGR MHJ MIN (2) NSR QBE (2) RGN SCG SGP STO TLX (2) VCX ZIP

ABP ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.61

Jarden rates ((ABP)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Marking to market means Jarden reviews A-REITs, updating its models from recent analysis of rental and expense growth. The broker's preference is for those companies with the strongest medium-term EPS/FFO growth.

Jarden also believes the peak of the rate cycle is arguably closer and with many of the concerns about debt costs, asset valuations and property fundamentals well understood FY24 could prove to be a trough in earnings momentum for many A-REITs.

Abacus Property's rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and the target is lowered to $2.85 from $3.20.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.61 Difference: $0.24
If ABP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.17, suggesting upside of 21.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 18.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.6, implying annual growth of -67.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 15.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of -5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACL AUSTRALIAN CLINICAL LABS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $3.12

Goldman Sachs rates ((ACL)) as No Rating (-1) –

The ACCC Commissioner has stated that the proposed acquisition by Australian Clinical Labs for Healius would likely substantially lessen competition in the Australian pathology services market.

The former has issued a brief response, highlighting this is a "preliminary" view and stated it will continue to work with the commission in relation to the issues identified.

Goldman Sachs does not have a rating or target for either stock.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Current Price is $3.12. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANP ANTISENSE THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.06

Wilsons rates ((ANP)) as Overweight (1) –

Antisense Therapeutics has completed a $8.35m institutional placement and announced a further $1.5m share purchase plan to provide interim funding to progress the initial phases of the phase IIb European trial in DMD.

This capital raising was not included in modelling but Wilsons envisages interruptions to the trial progress, amid regulator delays, have probably driven the need for additional funding. The broker retains a positive view on ATL1102 in DMD.

Overweight rating retained. Target is reduced to 30c from 36c.

This report was published on July 21, 2023.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.245
If ANP meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 445% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.39.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.72.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.76

Jarden rates ((ARF)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Marking to market means Jarden upgrades several A-REITs, updating its models from recent analysis of rental and expense growth. The broker's preference is for those companies with the strongest medium-term EPS/FFO growth.

Arena REIT's rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight and the target is raised to $4.35 from $4.30.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $4.35 Current Price is $3.76 Difference: $0.59
If ARF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 18.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.73.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 19.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.77.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AWC ALUMINA LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $1.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((AWC)) as Sell (5) –

The AWAC alumina joint venture reported an alumina margin of US$33/t for the June quarter, down from US$48/t in the prior quarter because of higher costs. Alcoa confirmed that the bauxite quality issues in Western Australia will extend into mid 2024.

Based on the uncertain cash flow outlook for Alumina Ltd, Goldman Sachs continues to expect dividends will not resume until February 2024. Sell rating maintained. Target is unchanged at $1.25.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $1.34 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.36, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 226.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 114.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.14 cents and EPS of 9.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of 625.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $44.34

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Production in the June quarter revealed better-than-expected copper and metallurgical coal, while realised prices for coal were weaker than expected. Goldman Sachs observes BHP Group's operations are performing strongly compared with the broader mining sector.

Yet costs are expected to climb in the Pilbara, and for Chilean copper and Queensland metallurgical coal in FY24. Over the next decade the broker envisages the company will invest US$7-9bn in South Australia to lift copper production.

Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $45.60 from $45.70.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $45.60 Current Price is $44.34 Difference: $1.26
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.13, suggesting downside of -3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 251.34 cents and EPS of 407.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 417.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 267.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 168.06 cents and EPS of 339.08 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 369.9, implying annual growth of -11.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 226.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWP BWP TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.74

Jarden rates ((BWP)) as Underweight (4) –

The BWP Trust Underweight rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $3.30 from $3.35.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.74 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If BWP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.63, suggesting downside of -1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of -76.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $104.43

Goldman Sachs rates ((CBA)) as Sell (5) –

Ahead of the FY23 results on August 9, Goldman Sachs revises EPS forecasts for FY23 and FY24 down by -0.5% and -2.6%, respectively, primarily driven by a weaker net interest margin trajectory.

As a result the target is reduced to $83.42 from $84.97. Sell rating retained.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $83.42 Current Price is $104.43 Difference: minus $21.01 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $89.68, suggesting downside of -14.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 450.00 cents and EPS of 602.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 592.0, implying annual growth of -5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 431.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 450.00 cents and EPS of 576.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 570.1, implying annual growth of -3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 435.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $11.28

Jarden rates ((CHC)) as Overweight (2) –

Charter Hall's Overweight rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $14.15 from $15.50.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $11.28 Difference: $2.87
If CHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.92, suggesting upside of 24.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 81.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.7, implying annual growth of -52.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 91.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.3, implying annual growth of -11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.18

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Centuria Industrial REIT's rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight while the target is steady at $3.40.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.18 Difference: $0.22
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.40, suggesting upside of 7.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.68 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -71.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 17.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.9, implying annual growth of -0.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLW CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.05

Jarden rates ((CLW)) as Underweight (4) –

Charter Hall Long WALE REIT's Underweight rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $4.25 from $4.60.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $0.2
If CLW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 7.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 28.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of -79.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 28.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.68

Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

The broker remains concerned about look-through gearing for Centuria Capital, although concedes fixing this would be a major catalyst. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and the target is lowered to $1.80 from $2.20.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.68 Difference: $0.125
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 15.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 14.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 16.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.44

Jarden rates ((COF)) as Underweight (4) –

Centuria Office REIT's Underweight rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $1.50 from $1.70.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.06
If COF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.74, suggesting upside of 21.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 14.10 cents and EPS of 15.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of -20.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.50 cents and EPS of 15.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $3.04

Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Overweight (2) –

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT's Overweight rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $3.35 and $3.60.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.31
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 16.98 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.90.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 17.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.13.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQR CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.75

Jarden rates ((CQR)) as Overweight (2) –

Charter Hall Retail REIT's Overweight rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $4.40 from $4.55.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $3.75 Difference: $0.65
If CQR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 7.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.80 cents and EPS of 28.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of -74.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.70 cents and EPS of 29.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of -3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $8.10

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Underweight (4) –

The Dexus Underweight rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $8.20 from $9.20.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $8.20 Current Price is $8.10 Difference: $0.1
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.99, suggesting upside of 11.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 51.30 cents and EPS of 62.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.3, implying annual growth of -57.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 63.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.8, implying annual growth of -0.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.60

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Neutral (3) –

June quarter production missed expectations but Jarden believes this is "backward looking" as prompt action by the Ernest Henry mine to recover to a steady state by the end of FY23 sets Evolution Mining up to meet guidance.

The drilling at the gap between the Ernie Junior discovery and the main ore body continues to support the view that this will form part of the whole project in time.

Jarden points out the significance of the assays should not be overlooked, given the bearing on implied strike and width of the Ernest Henry footprint.

Neutral maintained, as there is a lack of reasonable valuation support in the broker's view. Target is raised to $3.21 from $3.18.

This report was published on July 21, 2023.

Target price is $3.21 Current Price is $3.60 Difference: minus $0.39 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting downside of -6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 16.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.3, implying annual growth of -25.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.34 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.6, implying annual growth of 115.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FLT FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $22.39

Jarden rates ((FLT)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes Flight Centre Travel delivered a strong finish to FY23 with total transaction value now expected to be $22bn. Importantly, leisure and corporate contributed equally to the upgrade to guidance.

Beyond FY23 the pre-tax profit margin target of 2% for FY25 is also unchanged. The broker remains positive about the travel sector amid firm global travel demand, and share gains.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target is lifted to $23.70 from $21.40.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $23.70 Current Price is $22.39 Difference: $1.31
If FLT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.49, suggesting upside of 9.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 31.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 63.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 117.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 98.9, implying annual growth of 181.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $20.70

Jarden rates ((GMG)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Goodman Group's rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight and the target lifted to $24.90 from $23.70.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $20.70 Difference: $4.2
If GMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.78, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 102.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.1, implying annual growth of -48.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 111.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.0, implying annual growth of 9.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.27

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Underweight (4) –

GPT Group's Underweight rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $4.40 from $4.80.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $0.13
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.01, suggesting upside of 18.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 31.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 27.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.50 cents and EPS of 31.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.0, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.20

Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Overweight (2) –

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's Overweight rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $1.35 from $1.45.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.15
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 13.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.7, implying annual growth of -69.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 9.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HMC HMC CAPITAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $5.18

Jarden rates ((HMC)) as Overweight (2) –

HMC Capital's Overweight rating is maintained and the target is raised to $5.80 from $5.60.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $5.80 Current Price is $5.18 Difference: $0.62
If HMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 25.95 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.8, implying annual growth of -17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 27.46 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 20.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.12

Jarden rates ((INA)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight (2) –

Ingenia Communities is upgraded to Overweight from Underweight and the target is reduced to $4.40 from $4.70.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.28
If INA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.44, suggesting upside of 9.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 22.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.2, implying annual growth of -27.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 27.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of 19.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LIC LIFESTYLE COMMUNITIES LIMITED

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $16.84

Jarden rates ((LIC)) as Buy (1) –

The Lifestyle Communities Buy rating is maintained and the target is lowered to $19.40 from $21.30.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $19.40 Current Price is $16.84 Difference: $2.56
If LIC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 74.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.54.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 101.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.57.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGR MIRVAC GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.33

Jarden rates ((MGR)) as Underweight (4) –

Mirvac Group's Underweight rating is maintained and the target is raised to $2.30 from $2.20.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If MGR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 11.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 14.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of -36.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 15.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MHJ MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Luxury – Overnight Price: $0.91

Jarden rates ((MHJ)) as Overweight (2) –

Michael Hill reported FY23 sales of $628m, up 6% and supported by a one-month contribution from the Bevilles acquisition. Jarden is encouraged by the update as it suggests an underlying improvement in sales activity throughout June.

The Canadian market was a highlight in the second half as consumers showed signs of recovery. The company has indicated the FY23 gross margin was down on the prior year but remained above the FY21 level.

Jarden retains an Overweight rating on a sector-relative basis, underpinned by the exposure to event-based gift purchases which should provide for more resilient demand, reducing the target to NZ$1.35 from NZ$1.40.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Current Price is $0.91. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.84.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.92.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $68.31

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs adjusts FY23 EPS estimates down by -9% and FY24 and FY25 up by 18% and 13%, respectively, incorporating lithium chemical pricing for Wodgina and removing the loss-making Wodgina lithium hydroxide production across FY24-25.

The broker incorporates the divestment of Kemerton as well. Target is reduced to $57 from $60 and a Sell rating is retained as the stock is considered fully valued versus peers.

This report was published on July 21, 2023.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $68.31 Difference: minus $11.31 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $81.00, suggesting upside of 16.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 155.00 cents and EPS of 380.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 438.1, implying annual growth of 137.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 239.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 475.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 656.9, implying annual growth of 49.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 264.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((MIN)) as Underweight (4) –

After another change to the MARBL joint venture, leaving Mineral Resources with its only remaining asset from the JV, Wodgina, Jarden now removes the potential of the downstream businesses from valuation.

The broker finds it difficult to pre-empt the next move in the company's lithium strategy yet observes pure commerciality appears to still be dictating a desire to capture more of the value chain, with the plan to still build a downstream facility in Australia.

With quarterly production numbers due on July 26 and initial FY24 guidance likely at the full year report on August 29, Jarden expects questions about appropriate capital allocation will remain. Underweight maintained. Target is reduced to $53.53 from $59.41.

This report was published on July 21, 2023.

Target price is $53.53 Current Price is $68.31 Difference: minus $14.78 (current price is over target).
If MIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $81.00, suggesting upside of 16.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 195.00 cents and EPS of 349.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 438.1, implying annual growth of 137.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 239.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 199.00 cents and EPS of 399.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 656.9, implying annual growth of 49.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 264.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NSR NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.26

Jarden rates ((NSR)) as Buy (1) –

National Storage REIT's Buy rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $2.80 from $3.00.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.54
If NSR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.27, suggesting upside of 0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.89 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.5, implying annual growth of -77.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 12.87 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.1, implying annual growth of -3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $15.84

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs notes QBE Insurance has retained its guidance for 10% gross written premium constant currency growth in 2023. Rate increases continue to be very strong despite some seasonality on renewals, the broker adds.

The guidance implies a meaningful moderation in growth over the second half which Goldmann Sachs suspects is "somewhat conservative".

The broker retains a Buy rating and $17.98 target, continuing to like the stock for its strong top-line growth while North American strategic initiatives are expected to drive an improvement in returns.

This report was published on July 21, 2023.

Target price is $17.98 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: $2.14
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.55, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 66.92 cents and EPS of 144.26 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 89.23 cents and EPS of 181.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.2, implying annual growth of 21.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Despite frustrations with another "pre-result update" Jarden was pleased that there was greater capacity for QBE Insurance to absorb higher first half catastrophe and reserve revisions within existing 2023 guidance.

Still, the broker suggests it is a timely reminder of the greater earnings volatility as reinsurance retention resets higher.

Jarden subsequently believes the earnings outlook remains well underpinned and the stock is trading at a "highly compelling" 8.3x PE, supporting a Buy rating. Target is reduced to $20.00 from $20.25.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $15.84 Difference: $4.16
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.55, suggesting upside of 5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 108.57 cents and EPS of 149.17 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 132.36 cents and EPS of 189.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 168.2, implying annual growth of 21.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

RGN REGION GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.41

Jarden rates ((RGN)) as Overweight (2) –

Region Group's Overweight rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $2.75 from $3.00.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.41 Difference: $0.34
If RGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.56, suggesting upside of 7.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 16.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of -61.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 16.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.4, implying annual growth of -2.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SCG SCENTRE GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.77

Jarden rates ((SCG)) as Buy (1) –

Scentre Group's Buy rating is maintained and the target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.60.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.77 Difference: $0.63
If SCG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 21.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.7, implying annual growth of 256.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 22.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGP STOCKLAND

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.16

Jarden rates ((SGP)) as Underweight (4) –

Stockland's Underweight rating is maintained and the target is raised to $3.80 from $3.70.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If SGP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.34, suggesting upside of 4.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 32.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of -42.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.50 cents and EPS of 34.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of -6.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.90

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes the main positives from the June quarter were a submission of the Barossa environmental plan, the fact Bayu-Undan is still operating and could continue into the second half of 2023, and oil production in Western Australia being higher than estimated.

Offsetting these positives was confirmation that 2023 production will be towards the lower end of the prior guidance range and that June quarter revenue was materially affected by lower LNG prices.

The broker reduces its valuation slightly, amid higher WACC assumptions, yet maintains an Overweight rating, lowering the target to $7.75 from $7.80.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.90 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.39, suggesting upside of 17.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 37.03 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 29.15 cents and EPS of 50.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.9, implying annual growth of -5.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $11.16

Jarden rates ((TLX)) as Buy (1) –

Telix Pharmaceuticals revealed Illuccix sales have vastly improved, with operating leverage delivering a meaningful beat to Jarden's EBITDA estimates for the first half.

The broker now expects 15% growth in Illuccix sales over the September quarter and 12% over the December quarter.

Substantial earnings upgrades are largely responsible for the increase in the target to $12.26 from $10.02 and a Buy rating is maintained on valuation grounds.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $12.26 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $1.1
If TLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 121.30.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.86.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Telix Pharmaceuticals has reported $120.7m in June quarter global sales of Illuccix along with $34m in EBITDA for the first half, beating estimates.

Despite this, and notwithstanding obvious market share gains for Illuccix, Wilsons is perplexed by the sell-off in the stock of -16%.

The broker points out commentary that volume-based discounts would become a factor in the PSMA PET/CT category is old news and unsurprising.

Given the company's cost control has been "excellent" and went unrewarded, Wilsons retains an Overweight rating and elevates the target to $13.13 from $13.00.

This report was published on July 21, 2023.

Target price is $13.13 Current Price is $11.16 Difference: $1.97
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 94.58.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.57.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VCX VICINITY CENTRES

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.97

Jarden rates ((VCX)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

Vicinity Centres' rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight while the target is reduced to $2.25 from $2.30.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.25 Current Price is $1.97 Difference: $0.285
If VCX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.99, suggesting upside of 1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 14.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of -46.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 15.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ZIP ZIP CO LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.43

Jarden rates ((ZIP)) as Neutral (3) –

Zip Co has posted revenue for FY23 that was better than Jarden expected. The broker observes the company is on its way to profitability with businesses divested and cash flow neutralised.

The overhang on the balance sheet has been reduced with the liability exercise and, while concerns around long-term growth remain, at this point in the cycle the broker believes there is a preference for cash flow over top-line growth.

More detail is awaited at the upcoming FY23 result on August 29. Neutral maintained. Target is $0.50.

This report was published on July 20, 2023.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.43 Difference: $0.065
If ZIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.79, suggesting upside of 83.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 41.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -28.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -13.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

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