Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 22, 2023

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   A2M   AIA   ALU   AMC   ANZ   APZ   ASK   ASX   BLX   CGF   CNI   COF (2)   DHG   DRR   EVN   GMG   HDN   IPH   LTR   MGH (2)   NAB   NWH   PGH   PWH   RIC   SEK   SGM   SHL   SUL (2)   TWE  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.64

Jarden rates ((29M)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden is impressed by drill results from the high-grade Cervantes ore body at Golden Grove. Following similar impressive results at Mammoth, the broker has upgraded its valuation for exploration to $100m.

29Metals is expected to report a first half EBITDA loss of -$19m when it reports on August 30. The broker remains firmly of the view that the enterprise value of $430m is insufficient recognition for exposure to two operating base metal is in Australia.

Yet the broker remains uncomfortable with the balance sheet and keeps a Neutral rating. Target rises to $0.71 from $0.68.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.075
If 29M meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 24.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 34.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -30.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -16.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $4.27

Wilsons rates ((A2M)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight (1) –

a2 Milk Co's FY23 release has triggered an upgrade from Wilsons to Overweight from Market Weight with a twelve month target of $5.47.

While FY23 financials met expectations, guidance for FY24 implies downgrades ahead, but Wilsons takes the view this is cyclical rather than structural.

The analyst does acknowledge a2 Milk Co's risk profile has risen, yet not materially so. The upgrade reflects the fact the potential reward has now become "substantial".

Wilsons notes the shares are trading near the bottom of their historical range.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $5.47 Current Price is $4.27 Difference: $1.2
If A2M meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 23.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 17.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AIA    AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $7.49

Jarden rates ((AIA)) as Underweight (4) –

Auckland International Airport has released its PSE4 price setting disclosures which includes 10-year forecast for expenditure and passenger volumes. The Commerce Commission has confirmed the pricing decision will be assessed against the current 2016 IM, not the draft version released in June.

The airport's targeted return for priced activities remains 8.73%. Jarden continues to envisage risks to pricing, given the significant divergence on priced activities. While the airport stands by its targeted return the broker expects this will remain under review pending a final decision.

The broker retains an Underweight rating and NZ$7.65 target.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Current Price is $7.49. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -6.5%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 82.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 95.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALU    ALTIUM

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $36.88

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALU)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs' finds Altium's FY23 report was marginally better-than-forecast, with FY24 guidance for much better revenue growth, that came with higher investments, which translates in a lower margin outlook.

All in all, explains the broker, if guidance proves accurate, FY24 EBITDA should meet forecasts for a strong outcome in the year ahead.

Subscriber growth accelerated, which is highlighted as a key positive, but Octopart revenues were softer on lower traffic.

Target jumps to $47 from $41 on increased forecasts. Neutral.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $47.00 Current Price is $36.88 Difference: $10.12
If ALU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $40.86, suggesting downside of -7.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 76.25 cents and EPS of 119.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 95.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 146.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.0, implying annual growth of 35.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 114.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC    AMCOR PLC

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $14.88

Jarden rates ((AMC)) as Neutral (3) –

Amcor posted FY23 results that were largely in line with revised guidance. Jarden expects FY24 will remain similarly challenged. The free cash flow outlook has been compromised at a time when the balance sheet is "reasonably geared and interest costs are rising", the broker observes.

Amid less certainty about how the company can deliver earnings growth in the absence of cost reductions the risk/reward becomes less appealing and the broker lowers core EPS forecast by -5.5% for FY24 and -7.4% for FY25. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $14.30 from $14.60.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $14.30 Current Price is $14.88 Difference: minus $0.58 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.46, suggesting upside of 5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 76.10 cents and EPS of 103.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.50 cents and EPS of 108.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.2, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $24.24

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Overweight (2) –

The highlight of the ANZ Bank third quarter update was lower-than-expected bad debts, while elsewhere an update of deposit trends showed only a modest adverse mix shift.

As a result, Jarden upgrades FY23 estimates for earnings per share by 2% and FY24 by 0.8%. The broker maintains an Overweight rating and raises the target to $25.10 from $24.80.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $25.10 Current Price is $24.24 Difference: $0.86
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.47, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 235.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 236.9, implying annual growth of -5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.9, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 163.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APZ    ASPEN GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $1.75

Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Buy (1) –

FY23 results for Aspen Group revealed operating earnings of 12cpu compared to February guidance for 11.5-12c. FY24 guidance is for earnings of 12.5-13cpu and a dividend of 8.5cpu, both ahead of estimates by Moelis.

Residential rental income, which accounts for around 24% of group earnings, experienced a 26% half-on-half jump in net operating income (NOI) on strong organic growth and an increased contribution from finishing projects.

Average passing rents at the end of June were 11% higher than the FY23 average, with market rents a further 13% above passing, according to management. This outcome suggests to the broker 25% near-term rental income growth on FY23.

The outlook for Park asset earnings is less certain, notes the analyst, because of exposure to the discretionary consumer. This segment grew by 9% half-on-half in the 2H, excluding the seasonal slowdown at the Darwin FreeSpirit resort.

The target rises to $2.45 from $2.22. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $2.45 Current Price is $1.75 Difference: $0.7
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.78.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.15.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASK    ABACUS STORAGE KING

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.26

Moelis rates ((ASK)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Moelis initiates coverage on Abacus Storage King REIT, which has listed on the ASX following its spin-off from the Abacus Property Group, now renamed Abacus Group ((ABG)).

New pro forma FY23 numbers for Abacus Storage King REIT show revenue per available metre (RevPAM) increased by 9% from FY22, reflecting strong growth in rate offset by a moderate decline in occupancy, explains the analyst.

There are emerging signs of consumer softness filtering through to storage, cautions the broker, with yields having stabilised or starting to decline across most geographies.

Regardless, Moelis likes exposure to storage in general, and its preference remains with Buy-rated National Storage REIT ((NSR)) given its internalised structure, liquidity and superior balance sheet.

Abacus Storage King REIT also receives a Buy rating from the analyst and a $1.35 target price is set.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.085
If ASK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.08.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.70 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $57.22

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes the pace of improvement in ASX revenue remains uncertain, given activity levels were still mixed in July. As costs growth is expected to step up to 12-15% in FY24, it would appear EBIT is set to decline for a second consecutive year.

The company's inability to quantify forecasts for costs growth to moderate in FY25, and without clarity on regulatory response costs, this is undermining confidence in the broker's opinion. Neutral rating maintained. Target is reduced to $61.55 from $63.50.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $61.55 Current Price is $57.22 Difference: $4.33
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $62.88, suggesting upside of 10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 219.50 cents and EPS of 258.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 251.8, implying annual growth of 53.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 232.40 cents and EPS of 273.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.06%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 259.9, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 220.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX    BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $1.95

Jarden rates ((BLX)) as Overweight (2) –

The FY23 earnings from Beacon Lighting missed expectations and Jarden trims forecasts EBIT by -2-5%. The next catalyst is expected to be signs of a reacceleration in the US and trade growth.

The main risk going forward is a further deterioration in housing, impacting the retail business. Yet with record growth in trade and market share gains the broker is optimistic about FY24 sales outperforming peers.

Jarden transfers coverage to another analyst and retains an Overweight rating, lowering the target to $2.20 from $2.30.

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $1.95 Difference: $0.25
If BLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.90 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.60.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.90 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.93.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.62

Goldman Sachs rates ((CGF)) as Neutral (3) –

Challenger's FY23 normalised net profit before tax for FY23 came in at $521m, a beat versus the forecasts of Goldman Sachs and consensus of $512m and $516m, respectively.

The 2H dividend was 12cps compared to the consensus forecast for 12.8cps. The FY23 dividend payout ratio was 45%, at the bottom end of the target range, which the analyst explains has been reduced to 30-50% for FY24.

Management is guiding to profit (NPBT) of between $555-$605m, which reflects a combination of continued book growth as well as cash operating earnings (COE) margin expansion, in the broker's view.

The target falls to $6.50 from $6.74. Neutral.

This report was published on August 16, 2023.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.62 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If CGF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.77, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 58.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.0, implying annual growth of 21.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.5, implying annual growth of 12.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.44

Moelis rates ((CNI)) as Buy (1) –

Centuria Capital's FY23 key operating metrics proved in line with forecasts (and with guidance). But FY24 guidance turned out a lot lower than what Moelis had penciled in.

Management guiding FY24 operating earnings and DPS to 11.5c-12.0c and 10.0c respectively translates into a 'miss' of -17.5%. Moelis does suggest guidance is probably conservative.

Target price falls to $1.94 from $2.25. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.94 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.5
If CNI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 19.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of -8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COF    CENTURIA OFFICE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.29

Jarden rates ((COF)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden acknowledges it is easy to be negative on Centuria Office REIT as leasing momentum is difficult and asset valuations are under pressure. Elevated gearing is also forcing dilutive asset sales.

The broker would argue the stock is close to peak negative sentiment and a trough in earnings could also be in sight, yet until gearing is further reduced and there is some blue sky in office leasing the valuation arguments are not compelling enough and an Underweight rating is retained. Target is reduced to $1.40 from $1.50.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.11
If COF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 33.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.10 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Moelis rates ((COF)) as Buy (1) –

Key financial metrics in Centuria Office REIT's FY23 release proved slightly below guidance and Moelis's forecasts. Guidance for FY24 missed the analyst's estimate by some -11%.

Moelis has made some sizeable downgrades to forecasts. Target price declines to $1.98 from $2.07. The analyst highlight some 28% of the portfolio expires within the next two years.

Also, Centuria Office REIT has put in place less hedging prior to RBA rate hikes, and is now facing the prospect of higher interest costs than its peers. Buy rating retained.

Adjusted forecasts assume virtually no growth is on the horizon, not in EPS and not in DPS either.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.98 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $0.69
If COF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.71, suggesting upside of 33.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 13.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.64

Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Neutral (3) –

The FY23 earnings from Domain Holdings Australia missed Jarden's expectations. The broker adjusts FY24 listings forecasts to be flat and underlying EBITDA to be down 12%, although acknowledges that if volume trends persist there could be upside to this forecast. Yield growth is forecast to be 18%.

As the outlook is unpredictable, the controllable aspects the company has in its bag are cost and yield, and it appears to need more on these measures to deliver on guidance, the broker adds. Neutral rating reiterated and the $3.40 target is unchanged.

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.64 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting downside of -5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.20 cents and EPS of 9.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.5, implying annual growth of 129.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.8, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Neutral (3) –

Underlying FY23 earnings (EBITDA) and profit were in line with forecasts by Goldman Sachs, as was the 16.85cps final dividend.

Iron ore production from BHP Group's ((BHP)) Mining Area C iron ore complex increased by around 14% year-on-year to 126Mt (wet) and should ramp-up to nameplate of 145Mtpa by the end of FY25, suggests the broker.

Goldman Sachs makes only minor adjustments to its forecasts and retains its $4.50 target and Neutral rating.

This report was published on August 16, 2023.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.58 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.39, suggesting upside of 0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.90 cents and EPS of 26.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.20 cents and EPS of 23.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.2, implying annual growth of -12.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.34

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden found no surprises in the FY23 results given comprehensive market updates and site visits provided by the company in the lead up.

The main positive is that Ernest Henry has returned to steady-state production and should deliver on it is FY24 forecast of 80,000 ounces of gold and 50,000t copper.

While continued to acknowledge financial leverage, and modelling a sustainable dividend yield of 2.5-3.0%, Jarden identifies capital calls will likely remain at current levels for the medium term and should temper any expectations for additional capital returns.

Neutral rating and $3.17 target maintained.

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $3.34 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.43, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 24.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.5, implying annual growth of 208.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.4, implying annual growth of -29.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMG    GOODMAN GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $22.43

Jarden rates ((GMG)) as Buy (1) –

In the wake of the FY23 results Jarden rolls forward its modelling and increases FY24 and FY25 forecasts for Goodman Group by 2.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

With a proven track record of risk management, long-term capital partnering and a strong tenant focus the broker believes forecast growth out to FY28 of 8% is supported, if not conservative.

In an environment where most A-REITs and the broader market are dealing with rising interest rates and lower earnings growth Jarden believes steady growth from Goodman Group should be sufficient to overlook the valuation premium.

Buy rating maintained along with a $24.90 target.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $22.43 Difference: $2.47
If GMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.62, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 104.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.20 cents and EPS of 113.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.1, implying annual growth of 6.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.16

Jarden rates ((HDN)) as Overweight (2) –

In the wake of the FY23 result from HomeCo Daily Needs REIT Jarden decreases FY24 and FY25 estimates for FFO by -1.1% and -2.2%, respectively, to reflect the rising cost of debt, offset by a growing development pipeline.

The broker does not believe the valuation reflects a strong operating performance, with the stock trading at a -25% discount to what it considers is a conservative NTA valuation and offering a 7.1% dividend yield. Overweight maintained. Target is $1.35.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.195
If HDN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 16.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 78.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $7.73

Jarden rates ((IPH)) as Neutral (3) –

FY23 results from IPH were slightly ahead of expectations amidst marginally stronger revenue and lower expenditure. The agreement to acquire Ridout & Maybee is considered a positive step for the company's plans to consolidate the secondary market, lifting Canadian market share to 22%.

Jarden estimates the acquisition is just 2% accretive to underlying EPS in the first year. Coupled with weaker Asian volumes and the potential for attrition in Australian market share the broker remains cautious and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to $8.75 from $9.32.

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.73 Difference: $1.02
If IPH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.49, suggesting upside of 38.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.20 cents and EPS of 44.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.0, implying annual growth of 53.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 34.20 cents and EPS of 45.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.9, implying annual growth of 6.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.63

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Neutral (3) –

Liontown Resources has awarded it Kathleen Valley hard-rock lithium underground mining contract to Byrnecut, worth $1bn over four years. This is one of the final critical outstanding items as the company attempts to bring the operation into production from mid 2024.

Jarden observes the share price will be driven less by the earnings/cash flow outlook and more by the M&A potential, noting Albemarle's willingness to engage with the board to determine a mutually acceptable outcome to its bid. Neutral rating and $2.50 target maintained.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.63 Difference: minus $0.13 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.91, suggesting upside of 9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 328.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 61.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.09

Moelis rates ((MGH)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis saw Maas Group releasing a "solid" FY23 performance, with EBITDA beating its own forecast and market consensus by circa 4%. The second half proved much stronger than H1.

Residential settlements remain a challenge though were still better than what Moelis had expected (feared?).

Management did not quantify the outlook for FY24, but the analyst believes implicit signalling towards FY24 EBITDA of $195m has been in place.

Estimates have undergone minor revisions. Buy rating retained. Target improves to $3.81 from $3.68.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $3.81 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.72
If MGH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 26.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.75.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.40 cents and EPS of 33.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.20.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons assesses a mixed FY23 result for Maas Group due to subdued Residential Real Estate activity offset by robust 2H activity levels across Construction Materials and Civil Construction & Hire.

The broker likes the run-rate around activity levels and profitability leading into FY24, while a recovery for Residential Real Estate may have to wait until FY25.

Investors are now focused on cash realisation, according to the analysts, following a period of heavy investment in acquisitions, growth capex and property development. The latter is considered most likely to a provide a positive catalyst in FY24.

The target rises to $3.83 from $3.57 and the Overweight rating is retained.

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $3.83 Current Price is $3.09 Difference: $0.74
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.17.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.84.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $27.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((NAB)) as Buy (1) –

National Australia Bank's 3Q trading update was better than Goldman Sachs expected driven by stronger revenues thanks to the Markets operations and lower bad and doubtful debts.

The pre-provision operating profit was 2% ahead of what was implied by the analyst's 2H forecast.

Management announced an on-market buyback of $1.5bn.

Target is reduced to $30.51 from $30.69. The Buy rating is maintained given the analysts see volume momentum over the next 12 months, which favours commercial (NAB's strength) volumes over housing volumes.

This report was published on August 16, 2023.

Target price is $30.51 Current Price is $27.57 Difference: $2.94
If NAB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.40, suggesting downside of -0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 240.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 166.00 cents and EPS of 207.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 216.4, implying annual growth of -8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH    NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.70

Jarden rates ((NWH)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden expects the strong contracting environment will position NRW Holdings well in FY24, having reported a strong uplift in the second half of FY23, driven by the mining division that experienced an EBITDA increase of 30%.

Despite cutting EPS estimates by -6% in FY24 and -4% in FY25, the broker highlights the momentum and expects margins can lift from FY23 levels.

Mining was always going to be the key to improvement in margins and, taking a conservative approach, the broker forecasts EBITDA margin expansion for the division of 17 basis points.

Overweight rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.85 from $2.90.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $2.85 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.15
If NWH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 38.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.20 cents and EPS of 27.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PGH    PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $0.77

Jarden rates ((PGH)) as Overweight (2) –

The FY23 results were in line with estimates, with Jarden noting these had been rebased after an EBIT guidance downgrade in May.

The broker observes Pact Group's inability to pass through elevated domestic freight rates and labour costs led to the decline in earnings, despite the top line being driven by the successful passing through of inflation costs and the integration of Synergy Packaging.

Conditions are expected to improve year-on-year, given a better NZ dairy season and better demand for home and personal care packaging. Jarden retains an Overweight rating and raises the target to $1.30 from $1.05.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.77 Difference: $0.53
If PGH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 69% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.10 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.13.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.60 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.78.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWH    PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $9.97

Moelis rates ((PWH)) as Hold (3) –

PWR Holdings' FY23 release showed a positive surprise at the top line, but margins proved weaker-than-expected, also missing management's own guidance.

Moelis does add that weaker margins proved not as bad as feared. No quantified FY24 guidance was provided, other than that management continues to see extensive organic growth opportunities.

Moelis highlights defence and EVs as both offering substantial runways for growth for the company, but also questions whether this is already reflected in the share price.

Hold rating retained. Target price $10.92 (was $10.80).

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $10.92 Current Price is $9.97 Difference: $0.95
If PWH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.04, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.1, implying annual growth of 20.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.7, implying annual growth of 21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC    RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.11

Wilsons rates ((RIC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons assesses a robust FY23 result for Ridley Corp as volume growth and efficiency improvements offset commodity price and inflationary headwinds.

Profit increased by 16% on the previous corresponding period and was 2% above the broker’s forecast due to solid earnings growth and lower than expected depreciation.

The broker upgrades its growth assumptions for outer years in the forecast period given announcements of further capacity expansion projects. Management expects ongoing earnings growth for FY24.

The growth profile alone is compelling, suggests Wilsons, even before contemplating further upside from several expansion and inorganic growth opportunities..

The target rise to $2.60 from $2.51. Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.11 Difference: $0.49
If RIC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 15.59 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $23.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs points to broad-based weakness within FY23 results for Seek which revealed earnings (EBITDA) and profit misses of -2% and -3%, respectively, against the broker's forecasts.

FY24 earnings guidance was also a miss by -6% and -7%, respectively, compared to the forecasts by consensus and the analysts.

While depth revenues for A&NZ and Asia remained resilient in FY23, investment will be higher than Goldman Sachs estimated for FY24.

The broker remains Sell-rated and lowers its target to $23 from $23.50.

This report was published on August 16, 2023.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $23.36 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.22, suggesting upside of 11.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.6, implying annual growth of -77.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.4, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $15.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGM)) as Buy (1) –

FY23 underlying group earnings (EBITDA) were a -2% miss versus the estimate by Goldman Sachs, but a 5% beat against the consensus forecast.

Total ferrous scrap sales were flat half-on-half with strong US and A&NZ domestic volumes offset by the weaker export markets of Europe and Turkey, explain the analysts. Non-ferrous volumes increased by 15%, mostly due to recent acquisitions in the US.

Management provided no specific earnings guidance for H1 FY24. Ongoing subdued steel demand is expected in Europe and Turkey, but robust demand should arise from US domestic steel mills.

The target falls to $17.50 from $17.60. The broker's Buy rating is retained on positive long-term industry trends and the volume outlook, along with a supportive valuation.

This report was published on August 16, 2023.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $15.36 Difference: $2.14
If SGM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.05, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.8, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.4, implying annual growth of 32.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $32.25

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden was disappointed with the FY23 results from Sonic Healthcare and reduces FY24 and FY25 EPS estimates by -11% and -10.6%, respectively, to reflect EBITDA margin deterioration, albeit which has now likely bottomed.

Recovery is now from a lower base and will be slower, as inflationary pressures become clearer now that the high-margin PCR testing is disappearing sooner than originally anticipated. Neutral retained. Target is reduced to $30.74 from $33.02.

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $30.74 Current Price is $32.25 Difference: minus $1.51 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $35.31, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 103.50 cents and EPS of 141.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.4, implying annual growth of -2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 105.50 cents and EPS of 161.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 157.3, implying annual growth of 10.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUL    SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $12.96

Jarden rates ((SUL)) as Underweight (4) –

FY23 results were strong despite the macro headwinds, although Jarden notes cash conversion was weaker at 88% and the beat to EBIT estimates was driven by lower corporate costs.

The business is yet to experience a material slowdown with Super Cheap Auto sales up 4% in the first six weeks of FY24 and Rebel up 1%. BCF sales are down -1% and Macpac -9%.

The main risk going forward, in the broker's view, is underestimating cost inflation, and forecasts a 6% lift in costs along with flat revenue. Underweight maintained. Target is raised to $12.60 from $12.10.

This report was published on August 17, 2023.

Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: minus $0.36 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting downside of -4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 93.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.5, implying annual growth of -18.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 91.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Wilsons rates ((SUL)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons assesses a very strong FY23 result for Super Retail with profit exceeding the consensus forecast by 4.3%. Capital management was expected and 25cps special dividend is considered appropriate given the economic climate and medium-term capex profile.

The broker now forecasts a 12.5cps special dividend is paid in second halves extending out until FY27.

No specific FY24 guidance was provided. Trading for the first six weeks of FY24 was flat year-on-year (cycling 17%), well ahead of the broker’s forecast, with all verticals performing well.

While Wilsons holds a favourable view on the company, its Market Weight rating is maintained due to an increased capex requirement and because shares are currently trading around the broker’s valuation.

The target falls to $12 from $12.40

This report was published on August 18, 2023.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $12.96 Difference: minus $0.96 (current price is over target).
If SUL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.44, suggesting downside of -4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 67.80 cents and EPS of 87.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.5, implying annual growth of -18.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 73.80 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.2, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $11.60

Goldman Sachs rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Following FY23 results, Goldman Sachs believe management will deliver an EPS compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.3%. This outcome would be in line with guidance for sustainable revenue growth and high-single digit average earnings growth over the long-term.

The results highlighted to the analysts several key growth drivers that would ultimately result in a structurally higher-quality, global-growth business.

These drivers include ongoing growth for Penfolds-ex-China, a stabilisation in the Americas and re-establishing the Chinese foothold, explains the broker.

As management delivers on FY24 guidance, Goldman Sachs expects the stock will re-rate towards the five-year average price/earnings ratio of 23.4x from the current 21.8x FY24 ratio. Buy. The $13.40 target is maintained.

This report was published on August 16, 2023.

Target price is $13.40 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $1.8
If TWE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 9.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 54.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.9, implying annual growth of 52.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.0, implying annual growth of 13.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 40.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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