Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Aug 23, 2023

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2M   ADH (2)   BPT   BRG (3)   BSL   CHC   CNI   CNU   CXO   ELD (2)   GDI   HDN   IAG   ING (2)   IRE   JAN   MFG (2)   NHF   OCL   OML   ORA   PMV (2)   RWC   SPK   SUN   TLS   WBC  

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $4.52

Jarden rates ((A2M)) as Neutral (3) –

The FY23 results were broadly in line with Jarden's estimates. Infant formula sales were up 8%, underpinned by share gains in Chinese label.

For English label the daigou channel remains problematic, the broker observes, which is partially offset by a change in distribution strategy to reset via the CBEC and O2O channels.

US losses have narrowed and are expected to show further improvement in FY24, with a2 Milk co heading towards the goal of breaking even by FY25/26.

Jarden believes the company's cautious outlook is appropriate and retains a Neutral rating. Target is reduced to NZ$5.60 from NZ$6.10.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Current Price is $4.52. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.32, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 21.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 24.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.3, implying annual growth of 22.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $1.49

Jarden rates ((ADH)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes FY23 was challenging for Adairs and the results were in line with downgraded guidance. The main negative was a lack of a second-half dividend.

The result was affected by higher promotional activity and also supply chain issues, some of which should abate as the company takes back distribution control.

Jarden lifts forecasts modestly but wonders whether the stock has become a value trap. The business as a leading market position and a strong loyalty program but headwinds have developed on multiple fronts and the valuation is demanding. Overweight retained. Target is $2.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.51
If ADH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 22.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 36.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Wilsons rates ((ADH)) as Underweight (5) –

Adairs FY23 result missed consensus by -5.7% but outpaced Wilsons's forecasts (the broker sits below consensus).

The business side of things was strong, with group sales in line with Wilson's forecasts and gross margins proving a small beat despite cost blowouts, and the company managed to log an operating cash flow beat due to lower inventory.

Debt was paid down and cash conversion rose.

Wilsons says trading in the first weeks of FY24 appears to have outpaced forecasts but looks more challenging further out, and the expects no dividend in FY24 or FY25.

Underweight rating retained. Target price eases to $1.00 from $1.10 to reflect lower top-line forecasts and capital expenditure profile.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: minus $0.49 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.58, suggesting upside of 8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of -22.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.2, implying annual growth of 36.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.55

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes what looks like a relatively small gas discovery by Beach Energy in the Perth Basin at Trigg Northwest 1. This is considered welcome news after a string of negative updates and delays around Otway and Waitsia.

In a broader context the discovery also points to more gas been found in the Perth Basin yet the path to commerciality is now more constrained after the Western Australian government updated its gas reservation policy to ban future Perth Basin gas from being exported.

Overweight retained. Target is $1.65.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.1
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.80, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.8, implying annual growth of 1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.50 cents and EPS of 26.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.2, implying annual growth of 41.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $24.48

Goldman Sachs rates ((BRG)) as Neutral (3) –

Breville Group reported FY23 earnings (EBIT) of $172m, up 10% year-on-year, and came in at the top end of the guidance range of $165-172m. 

Goldman Sachs attributes better-than-expected cost-of-doing-business in the 2H for an around 13% beat versus the broker's forecast.

Revenue and margins for Global Products (Europe and the APAC region) outperformed though were partially offset by the same metrics in Distribution, explains the broker.

The analyst remain structurally positive on Breville Group in the long-term, while assigning a Neutral rating at present, due to positioning in the fast-growing espresso coffee segment. The investment case is strengthened by a rising number of new product developments.

The target rises to $23.50 from $22.50.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.40, suggesting upside of 7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.5, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Neutral (3) –

The FY23 result from Breville Group slightly beat estimates. Jarden found the result solid against a challenging market backdrop with costs under control and sales accelerating. The main debate, in the broker's opinion, is what a sustainable top-line growth rate will look like into FY25 and beyond.

EBIT growth is expected to accelerate into FY25 amid a more balanced contribution from organic growth and new product development. Upside is considered limited over the short term until visibility into FY25 improves and the broker retains a Neutral rating, raising the target to $23.80 from $19.50.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.40, suggesting upside of 7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 84.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.5, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 98.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Wilsons rates ((BRG)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Breville Group's FY23 result nosed out consensus thanks to strong cost management, a solid top line and gross margin resilience says Wilsons. No quantitative guidance was provided.

Wilsons expects continued improvement in gross margins and that the launch of new products should prove a positive contribution.

But the broker is cautious, recognising the volatile demand profile for global retailers.

Rating is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight. Target price steady at $25.70.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $25.70 Current Price is $24.48 Difference: $1.22
If BRG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.40, suggesting upside of 7.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 88.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.5, implying annual growth of 10.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 102.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.9, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $21.03

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Overweight (2) –

FY23 results from BlueScope Steel revealed a return on invested capital of 14.6%, slightly below its 15% target but, as Jarden observes, reflecting the phasing in of significant growth investments. The balance sheet remains strong and the buyback has been extended.

The company has guided to underlying EBIT of between $700-770m in the first half of FY24. While the financial metrics were down on last year's record performance, Jarden believes it reflects a successful transition strategy amid significant change in externalities.

Overweight retained. Target rises to $25.30 from $23.50.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $21.03 Difference: $4.27
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 198.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 186.3, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 195.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 189.7, implying annual growth of 1.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 50.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC    CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $10.85

Jarden rates ((CHC)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes, while FY23 activity was slightly better than expected, Charter Hall's guidance for FY24 reflects prudent assumptions of no recovery in momentum.

The broker now assumes a -$1.7bn drop in assets under management with limited net acquisitions and a 50 basis point expansion in capitalisation rates.

The company is considered well-positioned to continue its structural growth profile when there is more clarity on where bond yields and asset values will settle. Overweight retained.  Target is reduced to $13.30 from $14.15.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $13.30 Current Price is $10.85 Difference: $2.45
If CHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.91, suggesting upside of 28.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.10 cents and EPS of 75.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.3, implying annual growth of 96.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.80 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.9, implying annual growth of 13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.44

Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Neutral (3) –

Following Centuria Capital's FY23 results and FY24 guidance downgrade, Jarden lowers its FY24-FY26 funds from operations (FFO) forecasts by -18%, -21% and -20%, respectively.

The reduced forecasts reflect lower performance fees and development profits, restrained transaction volumes and increased finance costs, explain the analysts.

The target falls to $1.60 from $1.80 on the lower forecasts and a roll forward of the broker's financial model. While the Neutral rating is kept, the group is thought well placed to benefit from a recovery in real estate investment markets. 

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.44 Difference: $0.165
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 16.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 11.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of -8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNU    CHORUS LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $7.35

Jarden rates ((CNU)) as Underweight (4) –

FY23 results in terms of mass-market revenue were in line while field services came in lower than expected. Jarden was disappointed with the FY24 guidance, given Chorus is getting mid single-digit price increases on most of its core mass market products and these have dominated revenue.

The broker highlights the key risk in competition, which could impact the company's ability to recover value, with sustained competitive pressure bringing forward lower free cash. Underweight retained. Target is reduced to NZ$7.62 from NZ$7.66.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Current Price is $7.35. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 43.65 cents and EPS of 4.14 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 177.75.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.24 cents and EPS of 8.18 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 89.88.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.41

Goldman Sachs rates ((CXO)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades its rating for Core Lithium to Neutral from Sell on valuation as production risks are now more priced in at current multiples. Additionally, around 30% of the company's market cap is now backed by cash on hand.

Since the broker initiated coverage on Core Lithium on December 7 last year, the share price has fallen by -69%, while the ASX200 has only fallen by around -1%.

Over the same period, spodumene, carbonate and hydroxide prices have fallen by -46%, -62% and -63%, respectively.

The target is reduced to 44c from 75c on a changed valuation method and a lower near-term production outlook by the broker. It's felt new developments are unlikely to come online in time to benefit from the current pricing environment.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $0.44 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.03
If CXO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.67, suggesting upside of 64.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of 844.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ELD    ELDERS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $6.45

Moelis rates ((ELD)) as Buy (1) –

Elders has downgraded FY23 guidance to reflect growing margin pressure from Rural Products and lower than forecasts livestock prices.

Management retained its 90% cash conversion target.

Moelis expects challenging condition to persist through FY24 with negative operating leverage emerging in the retail and wholesale prices.

On the upside, the broker expects lower volatility in retail prices next year should help stabilise margins; and the balance sheet is rosy.

Buy rating retained, reflecting the -40% retreat in the share price in the past year. Target price falls to $7.45 from $8.49.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $7.45 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $1
If ELD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.58, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 36.70 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.0, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 48.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of -4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Wilsons rates ((ELD)) as Market Weight (3) –

Elders has cut FY23 guidance, citing price deflation in crops and lower sheep prices. Management also cut FY24 earnings (EBIT) guidance, citing growing customer uncertainty ahead of a potential El Nino weather event.

Based on recent trading observations, Wilsons expects continued weakness in livestock (sheep and cattle) and continued pressure on Rural Product gross margin.

The broker considers the company to be close to mid cycle, and the share price inexpensive, but observes gearing is at the top end of management's target and earnings pressure continues.

Market Weight rating retained, the broker believing this is a good entry point for those prepared to wait a year. Target price falls to $6.49 from $7.04.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $6.49 Current Price is $6.45 Difference: $0.04
If ELD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.58, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 64.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.0, implying annual growth of -36.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of -4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDI    GDI PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $0.64

Moelis rates ((GDI)) as Buy (1) –

GDI Property Group's FY23 funds from operations per share met Moelis' forecasts, and the 5c distribution met guidance.

Valuations were flat across the bulk of the portfolio since December, save for a -3% decrease in WS1, which the broker observes was largely offset by a development profit on WS2.

Gearing rose to 31%, reflecting the Tulla JV investment and Moelis observes management has taken more interest rate caps to hedge against rising rates.

The broker says the company has made good leasing progress over the year but it would like to see gearing retreat back below 30%.

Buy rating retained. Target price eases to $1.09 from $1.17.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $1.09 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.45
If GDI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.80.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HDN    HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.16

Moelis rates ((HDN)) as Buy (1) –

HomeCo Daily Needs REIT's FY23 result met Moelis' forecasts and the dividend outpaced.

Gearing rose slightly to 33.8% but the broker expects this will fall one percentage point once the Midland divestment settles, and observes management increased hedging through a swap restructure – FY24 is now 92% hedged at 2.72%.

The broker appreciates the company's development and suspects the company may sell more assets to keep gearing in the low 30s.

Describing the result as operationally strong, Moelis retains a Buy rating and $1.43 target price.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $1.43 Current Price is $1.16 Difference: $0.27
If HDN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.34, suggesting upside of 14.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.8, implying annual growth of 78.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.30 cents and EPS of 8.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of 2.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IAG    INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $5.73

Jarden rates ((IAG)) as Overweight (2) –

FY23 results were in line with estimates. Jarden assesses, with the earn from accelerating premium rate rises throughout FY24 as inflation slows, underlying margins appear positioned to lift to the 14.5% mid point of Insurance Australia Group's guidance.

Combined with stronger FY24 growth in gross written premium the broker envisages underlying profits rising 28%, and 13% in FY25, supporting its Overweight rating. Target is raised to $6.00 from $5.95.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $0.27
If IAG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.85, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 36.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.9, implying annual growth of 2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 31.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of 12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ING    INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.43

Goldman Sachs rates ((ING)) as Sell (5) –

Following strong FY23 results, Goldman Sachs notes earnings for Inghams Group have returned to pre-covid levels six-to-twelve months earlier than forecast.

The broker highlights positive management commentary for FY24 including a return to historical levels for volume growth, an easing of supply chain issues and increased confidence around passing on prices rises.

The analyst sees minimal FY24 volume risk and suggests poultry may be a beneficiary of an economic downturn given it is a lower-cost form of protein.

The target rises to $2.90 from $2.55 on earnings upgrades and a model roll forward. The Sell rating is kept with shares trading above the target price.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: minus $0.53 (current price is over target).
If ING meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 52.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((ING)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Sell (2) –

Jarden upgrades its rating for Inghams Group by three notches to Overweight from Sell following a strong, clean FY23 result and a change of analyst.

Underlying earnings rose by 36% year-on-year, cashflow was strong and exit rates for both price and volume were ahead of the broker's expectations.

Perhaps most importantly, according to the analysts, balance sheet concerns have been assuaged on strong 2H free cash flow and falling debt metrics.

Growth projects were accordingly resumed and the dividend payout ratio raised to the upper end of the 60-80% target range. Jarden's target rises to $3.56 from $2.19.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $3.56 Current Price is $3.43 Difference: $0.13
If ING meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.7, implying annual growth of 52.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 26.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.6, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE    IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.19

Wilsons rates ((IRE)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Market Weight (5) –

Iress's June half result missed both dividend and Wilsons's forecasts as rising input costs combined with lower-margin contributors to hit margins. FY23 guidance was a sharp -24% to -25% miss by the broker's estimate.

The company announced a net profit after tax loss of -$139.8m, due to a -$130m good will impairment, and management cancelled the interim dividend ahead of a capital management update.

Wilsons observes costs continue to rise (despite cost-outs) and procurement is slowing, and sees no solace ahead.

EPS forecasts fall -34% in FY23 and -35% in FY24.

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Market Weight. Target price falls to $5.68 from $9.26.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $5.68 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: minus $0.51 (current price is over target).
If IRE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.96, suggesting upside of 27.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.1, implying annual growth of -96.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 566.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.40 cents and EPS of 24.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.8, implying annual growth of 2427.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JAN    JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.46

Wilsons rates ((JAN)) as Overweight (1) –

Janison Education's FY23 result missed the broker's forecast and no formal guidance was provided.

Management did warn of another year of only slight growth in costs and the broker expects this, combined with hastening enterprise Platform wins, bodes well for operating leverage and free cash flow generation.

Management advised the company is now in a position to self-fund future growth and M&A.

Overweight rating retained. Target price falls to 61c from 66c to reflect the miss.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.15
If JAN meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.17.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 65.71.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MFG    MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $10.55

Goldman Sachs rates ((MFG)) as Neutral (3) –

FY23 adjusted profit for Magellan Financial was in line with Goldman Sachs' forecast with adjusted expenses coming in at $126.8m compared to the consensus forecast for $129.7m.

Funds management expenses were below the FY23 guidance range and FY24 guidance reflects strong cost control and some reduction in staff retention costs, explains the broker.

Management noted Barrenjoey establishment costs should decline materially into FY24 which the analysts suggest will help earnings.

Goldman Sachs is more positive on Magellan due to a greater focus on right sizing the cost base for current funds under management (FUM) levels, resulting in forecast earnings upgrades into FY24.

A special dividend of 30cps was declared alongside a final dividend of 35.6cps.

The target rises to $10 from $8.83 largely due to management's new cost guidance. Neutral.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $10.55 Difference: minus $0.55 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.3, implying annual growth of -20.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.4, implying annual growth of -6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((MFG)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Jarden upgrades its rating for Magellan Financial to Neutral from Underweight following FY23 results and raises its target to $9.80 from $8.45.

These changes reflect strategic progress and a willingness to manage both costs and capital. Management provided FY24 Funds Management cost guidance of $95-100m, well below the prior consensus forecast of $135m.

The FY23 adjusted EPS metric was in line with the consensus forecast as weaker revenues were mostly offset by better cost control, while share of associate losses were broadly in line, explain the analysts.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $9.80 Current Price is $10.55 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting downside of -0.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.90 cents and EPS of 85.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.3, implying annual growth of -20.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.10 cents and EPS of 93.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.4, implying annual growth of -6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHF    NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $7.76

Jarden rates ((NHF)) as Neutral (3) –

The FY23 results from nib Holdings beat expectations, largely because of higher Australian resident health insurance earnings as claims provisions relating to the pandemic were fully released in the second half.

Jarden observes, while the business has retained significant net margin flexibility into FY24, with margin support from covid-related items no longer featuring and amid elevated expenses, the glide path back to a 6-7% net margin has likely slowed.

Amid weaker earnings trends across key strategic initiatives such as Thrive and Midnight Health, the broker maintains its current earnings outlook and envisages limited value headroom. Neutral retained. Target is $8.10.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $0.34
If NHF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.47, suggesting upside of 9.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 42.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.5, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 44.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.4, implying annual growth of 6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OCL    OBJECTIVE CORPORATION LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $12.56

Goldman Sachs rates ((OCL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs believes Objective Corp has taken the opportunity in FY23 to suffer short-term hits to annual recurring revenue /earnings. It's felt the outlook for growth and margin expansion across FY23-26 is attractive.

The FY23 result was slightly softer than the analysts were expecting though management noted this was partly driven by the one-off impact of winding down none-core (or non-profitable) contracts.

The broker is confident management can lift ARR growth to mid-teens over FY24-26, from 10% in FY23, for several reasons including potential for material UK contract wins for the RegWorks division.

Also, the RegTech and Planning & Building divisions grew FY23 ARR by 21% and 17%, respectively, and Goldman Sachs expects both businesses will grow at more than 20% in FY24.

The target falls by -9% to $14.55. Buy.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $14.55 Current Price is $12.56 Difference: $1.99
If OCL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 35.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.89.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 38.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.05.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML    OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((OML)) as Neutral (3) –

Following 1H results for oOh!media, Goldman Sachs notes an improved 2Q performance with retention of market share. Commute turned to positive growth in May/June while Media is showing 7% revenue growth early in the 3Q.

Management is expecting circa $30m in annualised contribution from new Sydney greenfield wins from mid-2024 and flagged $10m in incremental ‘pipeline expansion’. Second half opex growth is expected to remain flat half-on-half.

While the broker raises its FY23-25 revenue forecast, earnings forecasts fall due to the weak 2H margin and soft gross profit margin commentary by management.

The target falls to $1.47 from $1.49. Neutral.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $1.47 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.005
If OML meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.76, suggesting upside of 17.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.5, implying annual growth of 60.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.1, implying annual growth of 18.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORA    ORORA LIMITED

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $3.53

Jarden rates ((ORA)) as Overweight (2) –

Following FY23 results, Jarden observes strength in Orora's North Americas division surprised to the upside again in the 2H, despite weak demand and deteriorating industry volumes.

The 2H showed margin accretion of 87bps and 12% earnings growth.

While management is guiding  to "earnings growth" (EBIT line) in FY24, the broker believes the EPS growth outlook will be held back by an increase in interest costs and D&A expense. These impacts are only expected to be temporary.

Jarden notes shares in Orora present a good risk/reward symmetry should Chinese wine volumes return ahead of schedule and the North American packaging/retail market recovers through FY24.

The target rises to $3.90 from $3.70 on long-term forecast earnings revisions. Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.37
If ORA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.83, suggesting upside of 8.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.80 cents and EPS of 23.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.3, implying annual growth of 6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.10 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.4, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $25.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((PMV)) as Sell (5) –

A FY23 trading update by Premier Investments anticipates earnings of between $355-357m for the financial year, a 14% beat versus the prior forecast by Goldman Sachs.

The broker applies an assumed gross profit margin of 65% to higher forecast FY23 sales, which accounts for around 52% of the earnings beat. The balance is likely due to improved management around the cost-of-doing-business (CODB).

The company also announced the resignation of CEO Richard Murray, as well as a strategic review to better understand opportunities to accelerate growth and returns for each of the three key businesses.

Based on the trading update alone, Goldman Sachs raises its FY24 and FY25 earnings forecasts and its target rises to $20.90 from $19.30. Sell rating retained.

This report was published on August 22, 2023.

Target price is $20.90 Current Price is $25.53 Difference: minus $4.63 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.61, suggesting downside of -2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 116.00 cents and EPS of 189.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.0, implying annual growth of -3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 102.00 cents and EPS of 143.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.4, implying annual growth of -17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((PMV)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes the review of the Premier Investments' operating structure, via potential demerger of high-growth brands, is timely.

Significant value could be realised via any disclosure of growth plans in respect of Peter Alexander and Smiggle, and separating these businesses could provide scope as stand-alone entities to trade at a multiple similar to Lovisa Holdings ((LOV)).

FY23 EBIT growth guidance is 6-6.6% and Jarden upgrades forecasts by 3% to reflect the update. The share price outlook is increasingly de-risked, in the broker's opinion and a Neutral rating is maintained.  Target is reduced to $23.00 from $23.70.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $25.53 Difference: minus $2.53 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $24.61, suggesting downside of -2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 93.00 cents and EPS of 174.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 173.0, implying annual growth of -3.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 94.00 cents and EPS of 159.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.4, implying annual growth of -17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 104.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.83

Jarden rates ((RWC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden observes the FY23 net profit result was boosted by several well-disclosed one-off items while net sales grew 9% in constant currency terms and second half margins improved.

As part of its FY24 outlook, Reliance Worldwide has assumed a low single-digit revenue decline and expects margins to be broadly similar.

As a result, Jarden pares back forecasts by around -6.3% over FY24-26. Neutral retained. Target is raised to $4.38 from $4.34.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $4.38 Current Price is $3.83 Difference: $0.55
If RWC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 5.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.71 cents and EPS of 25.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.81 cents and EPS of 29.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPK    SPARK NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.63

Jarden rates ((SPK)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Following in-line FY23 results, Jarden downgrades its rating for Spark New Zealand to Neutral from Overweight given the broker's target is reduced to NZ$4.95, down from NZ$5.11.

Mobile was a clear highlight for the analysts with the gross margin nearing $1bn, up from $775m in FY19. Mobile operating earnings growth is helping cover for inadequacies in voice, broadband and cloud, though some 2H green shoots were evident for these divisions.

FY24 guidance was in line with Jarden's forecasts which are left largely unchanged.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Current Price is $4.63. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.27 cents and EPS of 23.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.84.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.73 cents and EPS of 24.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.87.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $12.99

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

AMA Group ((AMA)) and Suncorp have concluded FY24 repricing for Capital SMART which suggests a more favourable outcome to Suncorp Group compared to original expectations held by Goldman Sachs.

Suncorp places about 40% of its Motor volume through Capital SMART, representing around 15% of Suncorp's motor costs.

Goldman Sachs retains its Buy rating and $15.13 target.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $15.13 Current Price is $12.99 Difference: $2.14
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.23, suggesting upside of 16.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 81.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 4.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 85.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLS    TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $4.10

Goldman Sachs rates ((TLS)) as Buy (1) –

Telstra Group's FY23 earnings (EBITDA) were in line with Goldman Sachs forecast, with Mobile achieving near-record 2H margins of 46.5%. The 2H cost-out performance was considered very strong.

Management announced the retention of its full ownership stake in InfraCo Fixed for the medium-term. FY24 earnings guidance of $8.2-8.4bn implies 4.4% growth but was a -1% miss versus the broker's estimate.

Goldman Sachs lowers its target by -2% to $4.70 and retains its Buy rating.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.10 Difference: $0.6
If TLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.50, suggesting upside of 10.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.1, implying annual growth of 8.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.7, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $20.88

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden found the third quarter update from Westpac mixed as, while net profit is tracking ahead of second half estimates and margins appear bettter than feared, costs were up 5% on the first half.

While the stock clearly offers value versus the sector, given the risk to costs and the still challenging operating environment, the broker retains an Underweight rating. Target is reduced to $ 21.60 from $22.10.

This report was published on August 21, 2023.

Target price is $21.60 Current Price is $20.88 Difference: $0.72
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.85, suggesting upside of 8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 141.00 cents and EPS of 200.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.8, implying annual growth of 28.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 141.00 cents and EPS of 185.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.5, implying annual growth of -9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 141.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms