Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Nov 28, 2023

This story features ASX LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ASX

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AKE   ASX   AVH   AX1 (2)   CNB   CXO   FSF   GLN   HLS   HUB   IGO   KAR   LTR   NEC   PLS   RIC   SLC   STX   SWM   TLX   TNE   UNI (2)  

AKE    ALLKEM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $8.35

Goldman Sachs rates ((AKE)) as Buy (1) –

It is too early to call the bottom of the lithium bear market, declares Goldman Sachs. Estimates for ASX-listed Lithium sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect lithium/nickel pricing updates and company specific changes.

The broker anticipates significant downside risk to lithium prices due to oversupply, and accordingly lowers forecasts over 2023 and 2024 with the 2025 estimate unchanged.

The target for Allkem falls to $10.90 from $14.40 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $8.35 Difference: $2.55
If AKE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.76, suggesting upside of 88.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.5, implying annual growth of -34.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 41.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 95.6, implying annual growth of 41.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $57.08

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

The selection of TATA Consulting Services to provide a product-based solution to replace CHESS is a positive step, according to Jarden.

TATA will be implementing a clearing and settlement technology platform currently used in Finland, South Africa and New Zealand, and is currently being installed in Canada.

The outlook is clouded by a lengthy period of implementation, and lingering uncertainty until late-FY24 over medium-term operating cost and capex implications, point out the analysts.

The Neutral rating and target price of $58.80 are retained.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $58.80 Current Price is $57.08 Difference: $1.72
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.62, suggesting upside of 6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 213.80 cents and EPS of 251.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 248.9, implying annual growth of 51.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 214.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 225.50 cents and EPS of 265.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.8, implying annual growth of 2.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 217.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.29

Wilsons rates ((AVH)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons considers Avita Medical's -3% to -5% downgrade to revenue guidance to be an aberration due to longer periods of Value Analysis Committee processes.

The broker observes the company is still likely to record Recell growth of 45% to 48% in FY23 and is experiencing low attrition and broader uptake from existing accounts.

Management still expects to reach break-even and profitability in FY25 and Wilsons expects an update on these targets with the February results; but the broker says it is still comfortable with the company were it to meet its targets past FY26.

The broker is concerned with widening consensus target ranges, which it suspects relate to the advent of Vitilago revenue, and forecasts consensus downgrades at the February result.

Overweight rating and $5.39 target price retained.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $5.39 Current Price is $3.29 Difference: $2.1
If AVH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.88, suggesting upside of 78.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -93.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is -48.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AX1    ACCENT GROUP LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $1.72

Jarden rates ((AX1)) as Neutral (3) –

While Jarden struggles to become positive in the short-term on Accent Group, the Neutral rating is retained.

This recommendation is based on the quality of the businesses, despite a question mark over Glue, which in the broker's opinion is holding back valuation for the company as a whole.

To further justify the Neutral rating, the analyst anticipates a recovery in medium-term earnings.

The broker stated these views following a trading update for the first 19 weeks of FY24, which revealed a like-for-like sales beat versus forecasts by the broker and consensus.

Management implicitly upgraded the store rollout for FY24, notes Jarden, targeting 70 stores for H1 versus previous guidance of at least 50 for FY24 and the broker's 45 forecast. The target increases to $1.87 from $1.81.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.87 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.15
If AX1 meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 27.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.50 cents and EPS of 12.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of -21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.10 cents and EPS of 14.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 25.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((AX1)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Trading has remained volatile for Accent Group, with group like-for-like sales declining -2.0% year-on-year. With gross margins also under pressure, Wilsons feels the trading update reflects canceled orders and a broader promotional environment than the broker had expected.

Looking forward, the broker sees increased uncertainty for demand, and has little confidence in performance in upcoming peak sales periods given recent volatility. 

The rating is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight and the target price decreases to $1.90 from $2.20.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: $0.18
If AX1 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 27.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of -21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.80 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 25.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNB    CARNABY RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.61

Petra Capital rates ((CNB)) as Buy (1) –

There are a number of attractive development alternatives for Carnaby Resources, according to Petra Capital, following "significant" first exploration results at the Greater Duchess copper/gold project since the maiden mineral resource estimate.

Carnaby has also begun the large scale Wimberu iron ore/copper/gold (IOCG) prospect. 

The Buy rating and target price of $1.50 are retained.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.89
If CNB meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 146% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((CXO)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

It is too early to call the bottom of the lithium bear market, declares Goldman Sachs. Estimates for ASX-listed Lithium sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect lithium/nickel pricing updates and company specific changes.

The broker anticipates significant downside risk to lithium prices due to oversupply, and accordingly lowers forecasts over 2023 and 2024 with the 2025 estimate unchanged.

The rating for Core Lithium is downgraded to Sell from Neutral on increased risk that funding from existing cash/operating cash flows may be insufficient to fund the BP33 development, explain the analysts.

It's believed underground mining costs have worsened by around -40% since the final investment decision. The broker's target falls to 31c from 37c.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $0.31 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.46, suggesting upside of 40.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.5, implying annual growth of 855.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 33.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.5, implying annual growth of -30.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FSF    FONTERRA SHAREHOLDERS FUND

Dairy – Overnight Price: $2.83

Jarden rates ((FSF)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden sees accretive value potential in Fonterra Shareholders Fund buying back Fonterra Co-operative Group (FCG) shares.

Value has arisen, explains the broker, since the March implementation of capital structure changes de-linked FCG shares from Fonterra Shareholders Fund units. These changes significantly reduced the shares farmers were required to hold against milk supply.

The analysts believe buying FCG shares would likely compare well against non-core/growth investment alternatives. 

Target falls to NZ$3.84 from NZ$4.15 and the Overweight rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Current Price is $2.83. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.69 cents and EPS of 57.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.89.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.38 cents and EPS of 45.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.21.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GLN    GALAN LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.62

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GLN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity sees many advantages from Galan Lithium securing a binding offtake for 100% of Hombre Muerto West Phase 1 lithium chloride (LiCl) production over a five-year period with Glencore.

The broker forecasts phase 1 will produce 5.4ktpa lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) of LiCl at a cost (AISC) of around US$5,500/t.

Not only does the offtake confirm the expanding market opportunity for Licl feedstock, but also transfers the risks of export licences for any exports away from Galan, and materially de-risks financing for Phase 1, suggests the broker.

In exchange for the offtake, Glencore will provide a prepayment facility of US$70-$100m, subject to satisfactory due diligence and completion of transaction documentation. Glencore has also secured first right to marketing and/or financing of the Phase 2 expansion.

The Speculative Buy rating and $2.60 target are maintained.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $0.62 Difference: $1.98
If GLN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 319% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 62.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.33

Jarden rates ((HLS)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden lowers FY24-26 earnings forecasts for Healius by -55.2%, -41.5% and -39.2%, respectively, following a shock earnings downgrade (according to the broker) and a heavily-discounted capital raising. It's now assumed no dividend will be paid until H2 of FY25.

These new earnings forecasts and higher assumed risk-free rates combine to lower the broker's target to $1.52 from $2.48.

It's difficult to rely on management's forecasts, suggest the analysts, given repeated downgrades, minimal margin impact from cost-out programs and exit run rates that fail to hold. Such uncertainties keep the broker Underweight-rated.

Jarden is also cautious around imaging volumes, as the company's ongoing financial pressures potentially jeopardise both government and hospital contracts.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.33 Difference: $0.19
If HLS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 37.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 144.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $32.45

Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Market Weight (3) –

Hub24 announced an Institutional Client win at its strategy day from which Wilsons departed feeling increasingly confident.

The broker appreciates the company's medium-term outlook for Net Flows of $11bn a year, as well as its medium-term growth plans, and observes the company is still trading at a discount to Netwealth ((NWL)).

Rating is upgraded to to Overweight from Market Weight. Target price rises to $37.23 from $33.66.

This report was published on November 28, 2023.

Target price is $37.23 Current Price is $32.45 Difference: $4.78
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $35.66, suggesting upside of 9.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.50 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.9, implying annual growth of 73.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 120.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.0, implying annual growth of 26.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $8.45

Goldman Sachs rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

It is too early to call the bottom of the lithium bear market, declares Goldman Sachs. Estimates for ASX-listed Lithium sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect lithium/nickel pricing updates and company specific changes.

The broker anticipates significant downside risk to lithium prices due to oversupply, and accordingly lowers forecasts over 2023 and 2024 with the 2025 estimate unchanged.

The target for IGO falls to $10.60 from $12.70 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $8.45 Difference: $2.15
If IGO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.78, suggesting upside of 39.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.3, implying annual growth of 72.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.4, implying annual growth of 0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.09

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

Karoon Energy will purchase a 30% interest in the permits containing the developed Who Dat oil and gas field in deepwater Gulf of Mexico for -US$720m. The transaction will be partly funded via a US$300m equity raising.

Jarden highlights benefits from the purchase including reduced single asset concentration risk in Brazil, and the around 45-50% increase in production for the first year of the acquisition.

The broker's target falls to $2.80 from $3.00 and the Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.80 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.71
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting upside of 43.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 43.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.0, implying annual growth of -25.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $1.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((LTR)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

It is too early to call the bottom of the lithium bear market, declares Goldman Sachs. Estimates for ASX-listed Lithium sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect lithium/nickel pricing updates and company specific changes.

The broker anticipates significant downside risk to lithium prices due to oversupply, and accordingly lowers forecasts over 2023 and 2024 with the 2025 estimate unchanged.

The rating for Liontown Resources is upgraded to Neutral from Sell as production risks are now more accurately reflected in the share price, explains the broker, after a -47% fall since October 16. The target falls to $1.55 from $1.85.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.185
If LTR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.35, suggesting upside of 71.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 34.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 136.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEC    NINE ENTERTAINMENT CO. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $1.93

Goldman Sachs rates ((NEC)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the Total TV market remains soft in the 1H of FY24 with Q2 activity around Q1 levels and forward bookings suggesting only a slight easing in the rate of decline.

The broker sees some downside risk into the 2H for metropolitan free-to-air market revenue given softer consumer sentiment and continued audience declines, which is reducing the TV audience reach.

The broker reduces its target for Nine Entertainment to $2.30 from $2.40 on lower metropolitan TV forecasts. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.93 Difference: $0.375
If NEC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.34, suggesting upside of 21.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.2, implying annual growth of 30.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 14.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.7, implying annual growth of 10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $3.55

Goldman Sachs rates ((PLS)) as Neutral (3) –

It is too early to call the bottom of the lithium bear market, declares Goldman Sachs. Estimates for ASX-listed Lithium sector stocks under coverage are updated to reflect lithium/nickel pricing updates and company specific changes.

The broker anticipates significant downside risk to lithium prices due to oversupply, and accordingly lowers forecasts over 2023 and 2024 with the 2025 estimate unchanged.

The target for Pilbara Minerals falls to $3.20 from $3.80 and the Neutral rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.55 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.67, suggesting upside of 31.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 24.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of -49.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.1, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIC    RIDLEY CORPORATION LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.27

Wilsons rates ((RIC)) as Overweight (1) –

Ridley Corp's detailed AGM trading update broadly met Wilsons's forecasts and the broker appreciated the simplicity of the company's strategy.

The broker observes variations across its categories (Bulk Feed more than offsetting a decline in Packaged & Ingredients due to rising demand for dry-season feeding) but says overall the trend is for sustained earnings growth.

Overweight rating and $2.61 target price retained.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $2.61 Current Price is $2.27 Difference: $0.34
If RIC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.30 cents and EPS of 14.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.76.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.30 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.28.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLC    SUPERLOOP LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $0.64

Wilsons rates ((SLC)) as Overweight (1) –

A trading update from Superloop showed better than expected performance from all three segments, says Wilsons. For the broker, business was a key standout, with the segment already 1,800 customers ahead of Wilsons first half estimate.

Following the update, Wilsons has updated its combined customer and subscriber estimates by 1.6%, although it lifts its revenue forecast a lower 1.3% given timing.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to 92 cents from 95 cents.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.64 Difference: $0.28
If SLC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 58.18.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.40

Wilsons rates ((STX)) as Overweight (1) –

Strike Energy has confirmed foundation gas sales agreements for South Erregulla with Worsley and Perth Energy, two top tier buyers with debt facilities now accessible to Strike Energy, in a move Wilsons describes as providing "bankability".

The agreements cover around 60% of estimated daily production from Phase 1 (42 petajoules). The broker feels it is a prudent approach from Strike Energy to secure these agreements for bankability, while still retaining exposure to spot pricing. 

The Overweight rating and target price of 54 cents are retained.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.40 Difference: $0.14
If STX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.54, suggesting upside of 35.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 80.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 80.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.5, implying annual growth of 200.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM    SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((SWM)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the Total TV market remains soft in the 1H of FY24 with Q2 activity around Q1 levels and forward bookings suggesting only a slight easing in the rate of decline.

The broker sees some downside risk into the 2H for metropolitan free-to-air market revenue given softer consumer sentiment and continued audience declines, which is reducing the TV audience reach.

The broker reduces its target for Seven West Media to 30c from 35c in the expectation earnings (EBITDA) margins will decline over time
given structural headwinds and cost inflation.

Goldman's new target also takes into account an increased stake in ARN Media ((A1N)) and an announced -$60m reduction in costs. The Sell rating is retained.

This report was published on November 20, 2023.

Target price is $0.30 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.05
If SWM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.37, suggesting upside of 46.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.7, implying annual growth of -28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 16.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $9.40

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons advises an expert panel discussion and Phase III trial design considerations at Telix Pharmaceuticals suggest the following.

-A Phase III trial is a necessity;
-Inclusion of chemotherapy options in GLOBAL's standard of care is advised;
-Novartis' studies suggest dangers on becoming too linear on therapy sequencing.

Overweight rating and $13.25 target price retained.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $9.40 Difference: $3.85
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 71.21.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.72.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TNE    TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $15.40

Wilsons rates ((TNE)) as Overweight (1) –

TechnologyOne's FY23 result broadly met forecasts, total revenue outpacing consensus' forecasts by 1% and missing Wilsons's forecast by -1%.

Wilsons describes it as a year of consolidation of strong recurring revenues across an "arguably a-cyclical customer base".

The broker observe subscription volumes are rising providing greater revenue visibility.

Management advises it will focus on annual recurring revenue and revenue growth over profit before tax margin expansion and while providing no specific guidance, said the FY24 pipeline was strong and software as a service was creating strong opportunities. Management did upgrade medium-term annual-recurring revenue guidance, bringing its $500m target ahead to FY25 from FY26.

Overweight rating retained. Target price rises to $18.68 from $18.12.

This report was published on November 22, 2023.

Target price is $18.68 Current Price is $15.40 Difference: $3.28
If TNE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.89, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.30 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.2, implying annual growth of 11.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 42.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.7, implying annual growth of 15.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UNI    UNIVERSAL STORE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $3.50

Jarden rates ((UNI)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden places Universal Store among a select group of discretionary retailers able to reduce the cost-of-doing-business (CODB) metric as a percentage of sales while like-for-like sales are going backwards (down -6.4% for the first 13 weeks of FY24).

In an increasingly tough market, according to the broker's industry feedback, gross profit margin resilience by Universal Store is impressive, suggests Jarden, given inflationary headwinds.

The analysts raise the target to $4.86 from $4.70 on higher EPS forecasts, and the Overweight rating is maintained.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $4.86 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $1.36
If UNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 19.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 31.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 38.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((UNI)) as Overweight (1) –

Despite the difficult macroeconomic conditions, the first 20 week period of FY24 revenue for Universal Store was largely in line with Wilsons forecasts, though gross margin and cost-of-doing-business (CODB) were more resilient than expected.

Management commentary around earnings (EBIT) suggests to the broker upgrades of 14.2% will be required to the consensus forecast.

The analysts raise the target by 3.9% to $5.30 and maintain the Overweight rating on valuation, along with potential earnings upside for the Cheap Thrills Clothing and Perfect Stranger stores.

This report was published on November 21, 2023.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $3.50 Difference: $1.8
If UNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.17, suggesting upside of 19.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.80 cents and EPS of 36.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.40 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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