Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 01, 2024

This story features ARN MEDIA LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1N

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1N   ANZ   ASG   AUB (2)   BHP   CDA (2)   CHL   CNI   CRN   EHL   FCL   ILU   INA (3)   IPH   JDO   KMD   MAH   MND   MP1   NHC   NSR   NWL   PFP   PRN   PWR   RED   SGM   SHL   SHM   SIQ   SLR (2)  

A1N    ARN MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.85

Wilsons rates ((A1N)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

The 2023 results from ARN Media continue to highlight a tough advertising market, Wilsons asserts, with the attempted takeover of Southern Cross Media ((SXL)) remaining the focus over the next few months.

Audio revenue was in line with the broker's estimates and group EBIT slightly weaker. Estimates for 2024 are downgraded slightly because of revenue timing while small upgrades are made to FY25-26 forecasts.

Wilsons downgrades to Market Weight from Overweight and lowers the target to $0.92 from $1.24.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $0.92 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.07
If A1N meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.90, suggesting upside of 6.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.10 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 13.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 12.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.49.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.2, implying annual growth of 5.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $28.45

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Neutral (3) –

ANZ Bank has recieved unconditional approval from the Australian Competition Tribunal for its proposed acquisition of Suncorp Group's ((SUN)) banking operations, overturning an initial rejection from the ACCC in August.

The Tribunal determined that the acquisition is not likely to substantially lessen competition in the supply of home loans on a national level.

Jarden points out this is just one of three approvals required for completion of the acquisition, with approval from the state government and Federal Treasurer still required, although the broker expects approval from the Queensland government is likely. 

The broker anticipates upgrades to earnings per share across the market, with the acquisition looking likely to complete by the end of FY24. 

The Neutral rating and target price of $26.70 are retained.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $26.70 Current Price is $28.45 Difference: minus $1.75 (current price is over target).
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.50, suggesting downside of -6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 221.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 218.0, implying annual growth of -7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 222.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.8, implying annual growth of 2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.33

Wilsons rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (1) –

Autosports Group posted a "strong" first half result with pre-tax profit in line with Wilsons. Further acquisition activity is expected to sustain the top line, although interest expense increases will hamper earnings growth, suggests the broker.

The broker is encouraged by the company's confirmation of growth in the order book. Revenue growth in service and parts continues above trend amid improved vehicle deliveries.

Wilsons retains an Overweight rating, raising the target to $3.85 from $3.78.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $3.85 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: $1.52
If ASG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 65% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.10, suggesting upside of 33.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 37.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 7.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 37.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.0, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AUB    AUB GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $30.22

Goldman Sachs rates ((AUB)) as Buy (1) –

AUB Group reported in line results according to Goldman Sachs, with an improvement in EBIT margins, although the declared dividend of 20cps was lower than the broker's estimated 25.5cps.

Management upgraded FY24 NPAT guidance to $171m from $161m , a 4% increase on previous guidance, notes the analyst.

Goldman Sachs continues to like the company due to robust tailwinds from a strong premium growth backdrop which benefits revenue, as well as little underwriting risks and a balance sheet able to support acquisitions.

A Buy rating is retained and the target price is raised to $32.50 from $32.00.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $30.22 Difference: $2.28
If AUB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.82, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 155.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.5, implying annual growth of 136.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 171.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.5, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((AUB)) as Overweight (2) –

AUB Group's first half results came in slightly ahead of Jarden's expectations, and with full year underlying net profit guidance upgraded 4% the broker remains contructive on the company.

The Tyser brand did report a softer half, raising some concerns, but AUB Group finds the business performing in line with its plan and pointed to material seasonality skews. It anticipates revenue upside moving into FY25.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $32.95 from $32.60.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $32.95 Current Price is $30.22 Difference: $2.73
If AUB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.82, suggesting upside of 15.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 153.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 154.5, implying annual growth of 136.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 99.00 cents and EPS of 179.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.5, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $43.93

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

BHP Group reported "broadly" in line results according to Goldman Sachs with only a slight (-3%) miss on net profit and a declared dividend of US72cps, which met expectations.

Assessing the competition for capital expenditure, the broker considers the higher spend on the Jansen potash project as more prudent on an adjusted risk return basis than the major copper projects.

Two major writedowns were incurred via the nickel operations (-US$3.5bn) and an increased provision on Sanmarco to -US$6,5bn from -US$3.4bn.

Goldman Sachs makes some minor changes to EPS forecasts of -3%, -1% for FY24 and FY25, respectively.

The target price is maintained at $49.40, with an unchanged Buy rating.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $49.40 Current Price is $43.93 Difference: $5.47
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $45.56, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 226.24 cents and EPS of 399.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 424.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 245.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 179.17 cents and EPS of 355.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 407.5, implying annual growth of -4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 237.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDA    CODAN LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $10.23

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CDA)) as Buy (1) –

First half earnings from Codan were ahead of Canaccord Genuity's forecasts. The broker increases FY24 and FY25 estimates for EPS by 6% and 10%, respectively. The results are seen continuing the recent track record of revenue growth along with margin expansion.

Canaccord Genuity suggests the stock is becoming high-quality and the communications segment is key. EPS growth is estimated to be 18% across FY24 and 19% across FY25. Buy rating maintained. Target rises to $10.83 from $8.17.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $10.83 Current Price is $10.23 Difference: $0.6
If CDA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.79.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.06.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((CDA)) as Hold (3) –

Codan's 1H24 results were in line with Moelis' expectations with net profit rising 24% on the back of robust metal detection growth of 49%  and radio communication expanding 13% over the period.

Management retained upbeat guidance for FY24 and the broker made small adjustments to net profit forecasts of 4% in both FY25 and FY26.

A Hold rating is maintained due to the valuation and the target price is lifted to $10.22 from $8.52.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $10.22 Current Price is $10.23 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If CDA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.80 cents and EPS of 43.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.52.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.90 cents and EPS of 50.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHL    CAMPLIFY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $2.21

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CHL)) as Buy (1) –

Camplify Holdings delivered an increase in gross profit in the first half of 101%, the period including a full contribution from PaulCamper.

Despite the results being in line with expectations, Canaccord Genuity notes the share price fell -20%, likely the result of lower quarterly sequential revenue contribution from PaulCamper throughout 2024, and volatility in gross profit margins half on half. Also, headline future bookings reduced -6% to $29m.

The broker revises FY24 and FY25 revenue estimates up by 1% and 2%, respectively. Buy rating retained along with a $3.25 target.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $2.21 Difference: $1.04
If CHL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 73.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CNI    CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $1.62

Jarden rates ((CNI)) as Underweight (4) –

Despite better-than-expected 1H results for assets under management (AUM) and funds from operations (FFO), Jarden lowers FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts for Centuria Capital.

The broker is anticipating lower performance fees for the REIT, along with restrained transaction volumes and some further cap rate expansion. It's also noted Centuria Capital's look-through gearing remains one of the highest in the sector.

The target rises to $1.80 from $1.75. Underweight. After a 22% share price lift in the last six months, Jarden sees better risk/reward scenarios elsewhere in the sector.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.80 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.18
If CNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.69, suggesting upside of 4.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of -11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 12.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRN    CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC

Coal – Overnight Price: $1.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((CRN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses Coronado Global Resources' 2023 performance was in line with forecasts, mostly, with Curragh not quite meeting expectations.

Management guided to 2024 production of 16.4-17.2mt with an improvement in Curragh, an increase of 5%-10% on previous indications.

The broker adjusts EPS forecasts by -2%,-6% and -7% for FY24 through to FY26, respectively, after tweaking cost and production estimates.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.08 from $2.20.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $2.08 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.72
If CRN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.85, suggesting upside of 36.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.11 cents and EPS of 16.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.18 cents and EPS of 22.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of -29.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EHL    EMECO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.67

Jarden rates ((EHL)) as Buy (1) –

It came as a surprise to Jarden that management at Emeco Holdings decided to preserve capital, given 1H core EPS exceeded the consensus forecast by 19%. 

In order to preserve the balance sheet ahead of a FY26 debt re-financing, the company has decided to not pay a dividend and cease an on-market buyback. The analysts feel this is a prudent decision.

During the 1H, the cost performance was strong and the underlying earnings (EBITDA) margin in the rental division lifted by around 130bps due to operating leverage from price-driven revenue growth.

The target falls to 95c from $1.10 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.67 Difference: $0.285
If EHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.24.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.82.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FCL    FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $1.66

Moelis rates ((FCL)) as Buy (1) –

A second half software revenue result of EUR33.0m from Fineos Corp,  10.5% year-on-year., was slightly lower than Moelis had anticipated.

The broker points out, despite subdued software growth, the company reaffirmed its free cash flow target, with the company aiming for positive flows in the first half of 2024. Fineos Corp is guiding to net revenue between EUR130-135m, implying a small downgrade.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.21 from $2.60.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $1.66 Difference: $0.555
If FCL meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

This company reports in EUR. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $6.85

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ILU)) as Hold (3) –

Iluka Resources posted underlying EBITDA that was ahead of Canaccord Genuity's forecasts, largely driven by positive inventory movements. The broker notes the balance sheet is healthy with net cash of $225m.

Maiden 2024 guidance has been provided and rutile production is broadly in line. The broker observes the company's strategy to mitigate pricing volatility is achieving the desired outcome with realised prices for zircon and rutile remaining robust.

The broker increases the target to $7.50 from $7.00 and retains a Hold rating.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $6.85 Difference: $0.65
If ILU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.71, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.6, implying annual growth of -34.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.0, implying annual growth of 31.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INA    INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP

Aged Care & Seniors – Overnight Price: $4.84

Goldman Sachs rates ((INA)) as Neutral (3) –

Ingenia Communities reported better than expected 1H24 results according to Goldman Sachs, including a 24% beat on the EPS despite some weakness in settlements.

Management retained FY24 guidance, although also highlighted some concerns over property settlements due to the sluggish nature of the market.

The broker makes minor adjustments to forecasts of 1% and 1% for FY24 and FY25 EPS estimates.

Neutral rating unchanged and the target is raised to $4.40 from $4.30.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: minus $0.44 (current price is over target).
If INA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.70 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.05.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.10 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.36.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((INA)) as Overweight (2) –

While Jarden discerned from 1H results development settlements are taking longer to recover in a sluggish consumer and housing environment, returns from the rental and tourism business were strong.

The broker suggests FY24 guidance provided by Ingenia Communities will ultimately prove conservative due to a growing development pipeline, ongoing strength for rental income and scale benefits.

The target rises to $5.45 from $5.20 and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $5.45 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: $0.61
If INA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 21.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.10.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.20 cents and EPS of 24.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.44.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((INA)) as Hold (3) –

Ingenia Communities reported 1H24 results of 10.7cps in EPS according to Moelis and management maintained the FY24 guidance.

The broker assesses the stock as fairly valued and views the valuation is dependent on the ongoing growth in developments.

A Hold rating is retained and the target is raised to $4.93 from $4.18.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $4.93 Current Price is $4.84 Difference: $0.09
If INA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.80 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.40 cents and EPS of 25.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.21.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPH    IPH LIMITED

Legal – Overnight Price: $6.33

Petra Capital rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses that IPH reported a slight miss on the 1H24 EBITDA results due to a softer Asian performance.

Canada performed well and there is an ongoing turnaround in the A&NZ operations.

Adjusting for the update, the broker lowered EPS forecasts by -3.2% for FY24 and -1.4% for FY25 due to slightly reduced growth estimates from Asia.

A Buy rating is retained and the target is lowered to $10.50 from $10.80.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $6.33 Difference: $4.17
If IPH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 66% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.91, suggesting upside of 40.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.00 cents and EPS of 43.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of 58.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.50 cents and EPS of 48.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 48.9, implying annual growth of 7.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JDO    JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.25

Goldman Sachs rates ((JDO)) as Buy (1) –

Judo Capital had pre-released financials so H1 net profit of $67m presented no surprise for Goldman Sachs.

The broker noted the asset quality was lower than anticipated and non-interest income was also below forecasts.

Goldman Sachs adjusts for the update with some minor EPS changes of -2.8%, -10.9% and -1.9% for FY24, FY25 and FY26, respectively.

The Buy rating is unchanged with a $1.69 target.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $1.69 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.445
If JDO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.20, suggesting downside of -3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of 3.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.6, implying annual growth of 10.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.49

Canaccord Genuity rates ((KMD)) as Hold (3) –

KMD Brands offered up a "lacklustre" 1H24 update says Canaccord Genuity as a result of weak results from Kathmandu retail and Rip Curl wholesale.

The broker highlights a -14.5% decline in sales for the 1H24, although cost management assisted in stable margins.

Macro headwinds are expected to result in a -$35m decline in FY24 EBITDA.

Hold retained, target falls to 57c from 68c.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.08
If KMD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.85 cents and EPS of 0.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.86.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.71 cents and EPS of 4.64 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.57.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.19

Jarden rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden assesses a strong 1H result for Macmahon largely due to robust underlying revenue and EBIT(A) growth of 15% and 27%, respectively, year-on-year.

The broker sees potential for an upgrade to near-term earnings guidance over the 2H, given management increased FY24 revenue guidance to $1.8-1.9bn from $1.7-1.8bn.

The company also increased the return on average capital employed (ROACE) metric to 20% from 15% and the dividend policy was lifted to 20-35%.

The broker raises its FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts to reflect an improving earnings outlook. The target rises to 26c from 24c and the Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.19 Difference: $0.07
If MAH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.20 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.32.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MND    MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $14.13

Goldman Sachs rates ((MND)) as Sell (5) –

Post the 1H24 results for Monadelphous Group, Goldman Sachs makes some minor changes to earnings, lifting FY24 EBITDA by 1% and downgrading FY25 and FY26 by -2% and -4%, respectively.

The Sell rating is unchanged and the target $12.30.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $12.30 Current Price is $14.13 Difference: minus $1.83 (current price is over target).
If MND meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.13, suggesting upside of 7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.4, implying annual growth of 11.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 74.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.8, implying annual growth of 21.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MP1    MEGAPORT LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $14.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((MP1)) as Buy (1) –

Assessing the Megaport pre-release of the 1H24 results, Goldman Sachs points to a miss on net profit due to higher stock based compensation, as well as higher depreciation and amortisation.

Margins remained robust with the analyst pointing out investment spending will be higher in the 2H24.

Management retains FY24 guidance and the broker lowers the EBITDA forecasts by -11% to -6% for FY24 to FY26, respectively ,for higher costs.

The target price is lifted 10% to $14.85, due to a higher PER valuation being ascribed to the stock. Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $14.85 Current Price is $14.47 Difference: $0.38
If MP1 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.46, suggesting downside of -7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 361.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 159.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 111.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of 97.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 80.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $4.70

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

New Hope reported mixed 2Q24 results notes Goldman Sachs with EBITDA some -6% below forecasts, although total coal production was 5% better than expected.

Thermal coal prices were notably lower than the broker's estimate at US$129/t versus the forecast of US$142/t.

Due to a change in the expected costs at Bengalla, the broker lowers EPS forecasts by -11%, -4% and -7% for FY24, FY25 and FY26.

A Sell rating is maintained and the target price is lowered to $3.50 from $3.60.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $4.70 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.89, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.1, implying annual growth of -53.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 57.0, implying annual growth of -1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NSR    NATIONAL STORAGE REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $2.26

Moelis rates ((NSR)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

National Storage REIT's interim earnings met Moelis' expectations, rising 6% over the previous corresponding period.

There was a slight reduction in occupancy, down -0.7% over the 6-month period to 84.1%, notes the analyst, as well as an additional 13 sites have been added, totaling $124m.

Management reconfirmed FY24 guidance of 11.3cps and there are no major changes to the broker's forecasts.

The rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target price is lowered to $2.38 from $2.41.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $2.26 Difference: $0.12
If NSR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.37, suggesting upside of 4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.3, implying annual growth of -56.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 11.10 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWL    NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $19.15

Jarden rates ((NWL)) as Underweight (4) –

Following in-line 1H results for Netwealth Group, Jarden notes higher interest income was offset by increased operating costs due to stronger headcount growth.

Funds under management to February 16 confirms to the broker improving net flow trends evident in the company's 2Q update in late-January.

The broker's target rises to $15.55 from $15.00. The Underweight rating is maintained on valuation, and due to little evidence of structural earnings margin leverage.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $15.55 Current Price is $19.15 Difference: minus $3.6 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.02, suggesting downside of -5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.00 cents and EPS of 34.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.4, implying annual growth of 24.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.30 cents and EPS of 41.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.0, implying annual growth of 25.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PFP    PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.81

Moelis rates ((PFP)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Propel Funeral Partners reported strong 1H24 results including 17.4% growth in total funeral volumes, highlights Moelis.

Management confirmed FY24 revenue and EBITDA guidance and the broker is expecting 2% growth in organic death volumes, compared to a -9.8% contraction in the 1H24 and then returning to 2% annual growth from FY25 onwards.

The target price is raised to $5.64 from $5.40 and the rating downgraded to Hold from Buy due to valuation.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $5.81 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If PFP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.09, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.80 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.2, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.40 cents and EPS of 20.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.1, implying annual growth of 10.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.9.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PRN    PERENTI LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.91

Moelis rates ((PRN)) as Buy (1) –

Perenti reported 13% underlying revenue growth in the 1H24 and Moelis comments EBITDA proved better than expected.

The broker adjusts EPS forecasts by 3% and -9% for FY24 and FY25 as a result of changes to the company's exposure to nickel.

Management's guidance was confirmed with a $100m-plus free cash flow target for FY24.

Buy rating remains and the target price is lowered to $1.25 from $1.35.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $0.34
If PRN meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 17.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.08.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 18.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.89.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWR    PETER WARREN AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.22

Moelis rates ((PWR)) as Buy (1) –

Peter Warren Automotive reported marginally better than forecast 1H24 results according to Moelis.

Higher interest costs and inventories eroded margins, however the balance sheet remains robust and gearing will increase in the 2H24 on completion of the $27m Macarthur acquisition.

The broker reduces forecasts with a -11% and -15% decline in FY24 to FY26 EPS, respectively as higher inventory levels are expected to impact on margins. The dividend fell -23% from a year ago.

The broker's Buy rating is retained and the target price moves to $2.60.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $2.22 Difference: $0.38
If PWR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.09, suggesting upside of 39.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 27.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.3, implying annual growth of -10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.40 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of -4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RED    RED 5 LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.33

Petra Capital rates ((RED)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses the Red 5 1H24 results as "solid" coming in slightly better than expectations.

The broker lowers FY24 EPS forecasts by -27% and 19% for FY25, with an increase in depreciation and amortisation charges as well as higher leasing costs.

A Buy rating with -2% fall in the price target to 30c.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.09
If RED meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.75.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGM    SIMS LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $12.24

Goldman Sachs rates ((SGM)) as Neutral (3) –

Sims reported a weak 1H24 earnings report and the EBIT was the lowest since 2020, due to pressure on scrap margins, notes Goldman Sachs.

Adjusting for the earnings update and higher scrap costs, Goldman Sachs slashes FY24 EPS by -158% and -28% for FY25.

Neutral rating remains. The target price sinks to $14 from $16.20.

This report was published on February 20, 2024.

Target price is $14.00 Current Price is $12.24 Difference: $1.76
If SGM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.78, suggesting upside of 12.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of minus 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 55.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.5, implying annual growth of -74.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 52.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 121.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 288.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $29.85

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

While Sonic Healthcare's 1H earnings (EBITDA) were in line with estimates by Jarden and consensus, profit missed these forecasters' numbers by -12.8% and -15.6%, respectively.

The biggest surprise for the analysts was a step-up of D&A and interest expenses. The increases were due to the resetting of collection centre rentals to reflect around 3% indexation, largely due to the application of accounting standard AASB16.

Management now guides to the lower end of the FY24 earnings guidance range, and the broker feels there may be a downgrade in FY24 as there is too much ground to be made up in the 2H to meet guidance.

The target falls to $28.88 from $31.20. Neutral.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $28.88 Current Price is $29.85 Difference: minus $0.97 (current price is over target).
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $32.22, suggesting upside of 7.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 108.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 118.0, implying annual growth of -19.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 99.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 151.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 145.4, implying annual growth of 23.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 110.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHM    SHRIRO HOLDINGS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.80

Petra Capital rates ((SHM)) as Buy (1) –

Cost pressures undermined profitability for Shriro's 1H24 results, although Petra Capital highlights some of these are one-offs.

Otherwise the results were broadly in line with the broker's expectations.

Management has retained guidance of EBITDA between $15m to $17m.

A Buy rating is retained and the target lowered to 90c from 96c.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.1
If SHM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 24.50 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 30.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.76.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 9.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.08.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SIQ    SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $10.97

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SIQ)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity assesses the FY23 result for Smartgroup Corp as broadly meeting expectations which had been reset at the December 2023 guidance update.

Net profit advanced 3% and revenue rose 12% over the period, boosted by 15% growth in novated leases over the 2H23, as EVs contributed 41% of the new car orders during that period and ICE vehicle orders remained similar on a like for like comparison.

There are no material changes to earnings forecasts.

Buy rating remains and the target is lifted to $10.65 from $10.20 on the back of a higher valuation.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $10.97 Difference: minus $0.32 (current price is over target).
If SIQ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.00, suggesting downside of -8.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.2, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.5, implying annual growth of 10.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 44.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SLR    SILVER LAKE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.08

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SLR)) as Buy (1) –

Silver Lake Resources reported worse than expected net profit for the 1H24 notes Canaccord Genuity, due to higher depreciation as well as a non-cash expense.

Of note the underlying free cash flow was in line with forecasts at $58m.

Management retained FY24 guidance.

Unchanged Buy rating and $1.50 target price.

This report was published on February 29, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.42
If SLR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.82.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.71.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((SLR)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis considers Silver Lake Resources reported an earnings miss for the 1H24, due to higher depreciation and amortisation and also other ancillary costs.

The broker assesses the market is less worried by non-cash items and more focused on the Red 5 ((RED)) amalgamation which is expected to be completed in June, as well as the free cash flow of $$49.7m.

Buy rating and $1.50 target price unchanged.

This report was published on February 21, 2024.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.08 Difference: $0.42
If SLR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.88.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.85.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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