In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 08-03-24

This story features ADAIRS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

ADAIRS LIMITED ((ADH)) Upgrade to Market Weight from Underweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

First half results from Adairs were mixed with sales in line and net profit ahead amid a strong rebound in gross margins and cost control. Wilsons notes gross margins recovered despite value-seeking consumers, while the top line was held back by limited stock.

The issues with the margin for Mocka appear resolved although the broker notes the core customer remains value-oriented and volatile.

Execution on costs and the ability to show pricing power results in Wilsons upgrading to Market Weight from Underweight. Target is raised to $2.00 from $1.10.

ALTIUM ((ALU)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

The first half result from Altium missed Jarden's forecasts with the focus now on the Renesas takeover. Revenue grew 16% and EBITDA 3%.

The company has suspended guidance but the broker notes, in order to achieve the lower end of the prior guidance range, revenue growth in the second half would need to accelerate to 25% and the EBITDA margin expanded to at least 37%.

The broker raises the target to the offer price of $68.50, from $42.00, and upgrades the rating to Neutral from Underweight.

AUSTRALIAN UNITY OFFICE FUND ((AOF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

With Australian Unity Office Fund's portfolio contracting from eight assets to five in the last year, and one of its largest assets remained vacant, Moelis was left surprised by the company's reported 4 cents per share funds from operations first half result. 

While ahead of the broker's forecast, the result was down -46% year-on-year.

The company has now announced the divestment of the York St asset for $29.7m, having been purchased in December 2021 for $33.5m. Australian Unity Office Fund should be in a position to start leasing the Valentine Avenue asset in FY25.

The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target price increases to $1.47 from $1.43.

COOPER ENERGY LIMITED ((COE)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

First half underlying earnings were ahead of estimates and Cooper Energy is seen making progress on its cost reduction program while Orbost is performing well.

The main risk, in Jarden's view, is a successful execution of the BMG abandonment within the targeted budget and by early May.

There are signs of a sustained performance at Orbost, as average production rates since the start of 2024 are 55.2 TJ/d compared with the 47.4 TJ/d average in the first half.

The broker upgrades to Overweight from Neutral and raises the target to $0.19 from $0.15.

DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

As Domino's Pizza Enterprises downgraded guidance in January, the first half report held few surprises for Jarden. The broker was seeking signs of improved same-store sales growth in Japan and the EU, and this was delivered.

Japan accelerated to 6.7% in the first seven weeks of the second half and Europe, while edging down -0.6%, revealed Germany was up 6.1%, the key growth market.

Risks remain yet the broker envisages the weight is to the upside and takes comfort in the momentum that has continued in Australasia. Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target edges down to $49 from $50.

FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED ((FLT)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

First half results missed expectations yet Jarden assesses this was overshadowed by market share gains, with FY24 guidance being reiterated along with a FY25 pre-tax profit aspirational margin of 2%.

The broker updates forecasts to allow for disclosure changes, with the net impact being a 5-6% increase in net profit estimates out to FY27.

The business is larger and leaner, with higher returns on investments compared with pre-pandemic levels and Jarden believes this warrants a premium relative to the 16x FY25 EPS currently implied.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight and the target lifted to $23.50 from $22.00.

KOGAN.COM LIMITED ((KGN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Despite concerns regarding the threat of Amazon and Temu in the longer term, Jarden upgrades Kogan.com to Neutral from Underweight. The company is currently managing the business for cash/profit with the increased profitability largely stemming from Kogan First members.

The broker does not believe the stock represents value on a PE of 46x FY24 estimates but expects ongoing growth in Kogan First subscriber numbers will lead to an upgrade cycle.

To become more positive regarding the sustainability of the company's business, Jarden would like stabilisation in the overall number of active members and evidence of sustained stability in customer acquisition costs. Target is raised to $7.50 from $4.90.

MAYNE PHARMA GROUP LIMITED ((MYX)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity and Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity observes positive trends across all segments are occurring for Mayne Pharma, with the business enjoying a "healthy and deserved re-rate over the last few months". New systems are in place to create structural growth.

A strong pipeline of product additions, combined with the disintermediation story, mitigates the risks in specialty and generics, the broker adds.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target lifted to $6.69 from $3.80. Expansion of the buyback also signals an improved stance.

Wilsons is finally satisfied that changes in accounting policies, data tracking and market approach by the new management team at Mayne Pharma are becoming sticky and the first half results have revealed tangible evidence of their efforts.

The positive view on the stock is being driven by Nextstellis, which for the first time since launch beat forecasts. This is a catalyst to upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight.

The broker assesses the material turnaround of the business is only getting started and it is time to buy. Target is raised to $7.38 from $5.50.

NANOSONICS LIMITED ((NAN)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons upgrades to Overweight from Market Weight despite reducing the Nanosonics EBIT estimates by -45% for FY25-26 as, with major Coris applications imminent and the fundamentals solid, its faith is unshaken.

The broker assesses the stock was sold off because the company announced concessions to enhance both the installed base additions and upgrade sales.

Wilsons believes the move was a long overdue stimulus for consumables and services earnings. Target is reduced to $3.45 from $3.95.

POLYNOVO LIMITED ((PNV)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons upgrades its rating for PolyNovo to Overweight from Market Weight and raises its target to $2.44 from $1.79 following a 19% revenue beat in the 1H.

The broker feels the company's position within the US surgeon base has been solidified, particularly for large, difficult to treat burns.

In a rare feat relative to med-tech peers, note the analysts, PolyNovo's expansion outside of the US has progressed to the extent 25% of revenue is now derived from rest-of-the-world (ROW) markets. At the same time, gross margins have held at 95%.

PRAEMIUM LIMITED ((PPS)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

First half results from Praemium slightly beat estimates. Wilsons was pleased with the result, having been initially sceptical of whether the company should participate in the OneVue sale process.

The coming year is expected to produce a rebound in trading volumes and improving market sentiment. The broker remains cognisant of adviser churn at key client, Escala, but believes this is factored in.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight and the target is lifted to $0.54 from $0.40.

PACIFIC SMILES GROUP LIMITED ((PSQ)) Upgrade to Market Weight from Underweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons upgrades its rating for Pacific Smiles to Market Weight from Underweight having set a target of $1.40, up from 88c, to align with the indicative offer for the company by Genesis Capital.

The broker suggests investors resist and demand a higher price given 1H results demonstrated consistent growth, belying the recent discount applied by the analyst. It's felt the ‘self-funded expansion’ business model has been proven by the result.

Genesis Capital is promising a broadening of focus beyond shopping centres, improving the service mix and even citing potential M&A.

RESIMAC GROUP LIMITED ((RMC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

The first half result from Resimac Group was weaker than Jarden expected as volume recovery was more than offset by eroding margins. The mortgage spread was worse than expected and margins are expected to reduce further.

No material earnings growth is anticipated until FY25. As the share price is down -19% recently, the broker upgrades to Neutral from Underweight with the target edging down to $1.02 from $1.03.

The broker reduces FY24 estimates for EPS by -20% mainly because of non-cash fair value losses.

SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED ((SUL)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

First half results provided few surprises for Jarden, being largely pre-announced, although EBIT was ahead of estimates. The trading update signalled softer sales, down -2%, but not too bad in the broker's opinion.

Comparisons are likely to get easier moving through the half year, the broker asserts.

Early signs from the re-launch of loyalty programs are positive with promotional effectiveness improving. Jarden suspects this could provide some material top-line and margin benefits from FY25, albeit this is not included in forecasts.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight. Target is $15.40, raised from $14.50.

TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED ((TYR)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

As 1H results for Tyro Payments were better than Wilsons forecast, the broker's rating is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight and the target increased to $1.30 from $1.08.

Despite some near-term total transaction value (TTV) pressures, the broker highlights ongoing improvements in pricing, and a turnaround in profitability in Bendigo Powered by Tyro, a payments solution with Bendigo & Adelaide Bank ((BEN)).

The analysts also note strong cost controls during the half and the benefits of higher interest income.

Management raised FY24 earnings (EBITDA) guidance by 4% to $54-$58m to reflect cost-out benefits and a better gross profit outcome. 

FY24 guidance for TTV was reduced by -6% due to both competitive pressures and underlying consumer spending reductions on TTV
churn, explains Wilsons.

WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((WDS)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Woodside Energy's 2023 results were ahead of estimates, including the final dividend, with an 80% payout ratio retained. Jarden envisages upside risk from a possible early start at Sangomar, while anticipating lower spot LNG prices will drag down net profit in 2024.

Sangomar was 93% complete at the end of 2023 with the FPSO now moored on location and connected to subsea equipment. Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight and the target edges up to $29.00 from $28.75.

Downgrade

CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following last-October's upbeat commentary by management at Corporate Travel Management, Jarden was disappointed by a -7% miss in the 1H against the consensus earnings estimate.

The company attributed the result weakness to weaker earnings in the Middle East and a -$25m impact due to lower activity for the UK Bridging contract.

Management noted a strong January and the broker feels execution by the company is progressing well. Nonetheless, the rating is downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

The target falls to $19 from $23 on the broker's earnings revisions and updated assumptions for risk-free rates.

HELIA GROUP LIMITED ((HLI)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0

The 2023 results from Helia Group were below expectations. The capital position was strong but also weaker than Goldman Sachs expected.

The board has announced a distribution of $0.15 along with a special of $0.30. Subsequent to the dividend and the remaining $44m buyback, management expects PCA coverage of 1.67x, still exceeding the board's range of 1.4-1.6x.

Goldman Sachs downgrades to Neutral from Buy largely on valuation as the stock is now trading on a record price-to-book multiple of 1.2x. Target is $4.47, raised from $4.09.

LIGHT & WONDER INC ((LNW)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Light & Wonder provided a strong quarterly outcome with above-industry earnings growth in 2023 of 22%. Jarden believes revenue growth across all the three businesses should lead to the market upgrading estimates and closing the gap on what is achievable.

The broker considers the company a more focused business that continues to grow share via a diversified anf incentivised world-class game design team.

Overweight rating, downgraded from Buy following recent outperformance in the share price. Target is raised to $161 from $147.

MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED ((MPL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Medibank Private delivered first half results that were mixed, with net profit well ahead of Jarden's estimates but only because of a $115m one-off covid provision release.

Tailwinds from low claims inflation were eroded by higher operating costs and softer policy growth. Increased uncertainty about government-approved premium rate rises and affordability pressures are likely to constrain the upside, in the broker's view.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target is $3.75.

MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons downgrades Monash IVF to Market Weight from Overweight and retains a $1.45 target. The broker suggests it may be time to "sit back and let DCF catch up with all the positive sentiment".

Wilsons still considers the outlook and visibility for the domestic IVF business are strong. While domestic margins appear "fully squeezed" these are still considered sustainable.

STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED ((SDF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Steadfast Group has retained FY24 profit guidance following a slightly softer-than-expected first half result. Jarden was surprised by the rapid deceleration in organic gross written premium growth in agencies, which combined with elevated costs growth has damaged margins.

Some recovery is expected along with incremental support from acquisitions but the mixed trends add to the broker's growing concerns about the sustainability of the strong commercial premium rate cycle.

Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight and the target lowered to $6.10 from $6.25.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden observes the lower bank earnings cast a shadow over the first half result from Suncorp Group, but with the bank sale on track to be completed in early FY25, stronger general insurance earnings were a highlight.

Underlying ITR margins appear on track for the top end of the 10-12% target range in the second half, despite the company reducing its reliance on reserve releases and absorbing a higher catastrophe budget.

The broker believes the business is well-positioned to deliver, yet with more modest value appeal the rating is lowered to Overweight from Buy. Target is raised to $15.95 from $15.25.

TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPG)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Gross profit at TPG Telecom was marginally ahead of Jarden's estimates in 2023 although fixed costs were materially worse than expected. Guidance for 2024 EBITDA of $1.95-2.025bn is below the broker's estimates.

While continuing to envisage potential for material earnings growth over the next three years as a result of improving industry returns and fundamental valuation support, the broker's conviction has softened. The rating is cut to Overweight from Buy and the target reduced to $5.30 from $5.80.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

ACE    ACUSENSUS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.65

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ACE)) as Buy (1) –

Acusensus has guided to FY24 revenue of $49-51m, and EBITDA of $4-5m, both slightly ahead of Canaccord Genuity's estimates. The business is in the early stages of its global expansion, leveraging patented technology in order to capture a $1.8bn market opportunity.

While slow to be awarded, government contracts are expected to be delivered in the next six months across three markets – UK, Netherlands, US. New contracts are also expected in Australia which will aid FY25 revenues.

The broker assesses there are few ASX-listed stocks exposed to the AI evolution and this undervalues the existing opportunity and the strength of the company's position. Buy rating. Target rises to $1.30 from $1.10.

This report was published on February 27, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.65 Difference: $0.65
If ACE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 325.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 325.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.30

Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Buy (1) –

First half results from AIC Mines were softer than Moelis expected. The broker is focused on cash flow as a driver of valuation in small cap resources and therefore the first half result had only minimal impact on the target, steady at $0.52.

Moelis assesses the business is a simple, domestic exposure to a compelling copper thematic. In addition to the commodity exposure in a limited field in the domestic market, AIC Mines also enjoys a clean balance sheet and growth options. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 22, 2024.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.30 Difference: $0.215
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 70% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.86.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.24.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CDP    CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST

REITs – Overnight Price: $4.29

Moelis rates ((CDP)) as Buy (1) –

Carindale Property Trust delivered a first half result that was slightly stronger than Moelis expected.

Gearing decreased marginally to 30.5% and a payout ratio of 75% will mean gearing goes below 30% even as the company funds its -$10m capital expenditure contribution to upgrade the food court.

The broker considers the result demonstrates the quality and resilience of the asset, and the stock is a stand-out investment given its deep discount to net tangible assets. Gearing is expected to continue trending lower. Buy rating retained. Target is $6.22.

This report was published on February 28, 2024.

Target price is $6.22 Current Price is $4.29 Difference: $1.93
If CDP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.10 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.62.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 27.90 cents and EPS of 33.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV    CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $13.97

Wilsons rates ((CUV)) as Overweight (1) –

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals delivered a soft first half result, Wilsons asserts, missing expectations. The broker notes good progress in expanding new US prescribing centres.

Yet the investment phase for the company can be tricky to navigate, given existing revenue is not growing at a rate to support the lift in expenses.

The broker knows investment now will bear fruit in 12-18 months time but understands it is hard for short-term investors to see through the margin decline.

This drives an Overweight rating. Target is reduced to $25.46 from $28.13.

This report was published on February 23, 2024.

Target price is $25.46 Current Price is $13.97 Difference: $11.49
If CUV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 82% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.75, suggesting upside of 34.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.70 cents and EPS of 64.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.5, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 69.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 75.6, implying annual growth of 8.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CCR    CREDIT CLEAR LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $0.27

Petra Capital rates ((CCR)) as Buy (1) –

Credit Clear's 1H results were largely pre-announced during 2Q results.

Petra Capital's forecasts were already ahead of prior management guidance, and now the broker makes further upgrades as leverage is being realised. Gross profit margins expanded to 54% from 51% due to good cost control, explains the analyst.

The company signed 225 new clients during the quarter.

Management issued new revenue guidance of $40m- $42m, and forecast earnings (EBITDA-U) will exceed $3m, up from prior guidance for between $1-2m.

Buy rating retained. The target rises to 43c from 40c.

This report was published on February 27, 2024.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.16
If CCR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.29.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.57.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CYG    COVENTRY GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $1.40

Petra Capital rates ((CYG)) as Buy (1) –

Coventry Group posted an 18.1% increase in underlying earnings (EBITDA) for the 1H, largely due to the ongoing strength of the Fluid Systems business, where earnings increased by 24%.

While Nubco (hardware and industrial products) and Konnect and Artia New Zealand (KANZ) are currently experiencing weak trading conditions, the broker expects an improvement later in 2024.

Along with higher margins expected in Konnect and Artia Australia (KAA), the analyst sees a strong Trade Distribution performance in FY25, supplemented by the benefits from an ERP upgrade, scheduled for late-2024 delivery.

Management is aiming for long-term earnings margins of 10%, well ahead of Petra Capital's 7.5% estimate in FY26.

The Buy rating and $2.29 target are maintained.

This report was published on February 27, 2024.

Target price is $2.29 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.89
If CYG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.87.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FWD    FLEETWOOD LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $1.74

Moelis rates ((FWD)) as Buy (1) –

First half results from Fleetwood were in line, with Moelis noting profitable building solutions and a partial offset from softer recreational vehicles.

The community solutions division EBIT was $4.7m, up 83%, amid demand from major client shutdown work. Moelis continues to envisage upside potential from Searipple. Buy rating retained. Target is $2.31, revised down from $2.40.

This report was published on February 28, 2024.

Target price is $2.31 Current Price is $1.74 Difference: $0.57
If FWD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.03.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.70 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GTN    GTN LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.48

Petra Capital rates ((GTN)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses a robust 1H for GTN and suggests the business is well placed for FY24. Management didn't provide any commentary around 2H trading.

Brazil experienced a significant uptick for both revenue and profitability on increased utilisation, which the broker had already incorporated into forecasts.

The 68c target and Buy rating are maintained. Petra Capital expects continuing growth for GTN in international markets such as Brazil and Canada.

This report was published on February 27, 2024.

Target price is $0.68 Current Price is $0.48 Difference: $0.2
If GTN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.60.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.80 cents and EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $8.20

Jarden rates ((KGN)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight (3) –

Despite concerns regarding the threat of Amazon and Temu in the longer term, Jarden upgrades Kogan.com to Neutral from Underweight. The company is currently managing the business for cash/profit with the increased profitability largely stemming from Kogan First members.

The broker does not believe the stock represents value on a PE of 46x FY24 estimates but expects ongoing growth in Kogan First subscriber numbers will lead to an upgrade cycle.

To become more positive regarding the sustainability of the company's business, Jarden would like stabilisation in the overall number of active members and evidence of sustained stability in customer acquisition costs. Target is raised to $7.50 from $4.90.

This report was published on February 27, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $8.20 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.73, suggesting downside of -5.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 49.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.8, implying annual growth of 121.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NEU    NEUREN PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $19.46

Wilsons rates ((NEU)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons welcomes the "upside surprise" for fourth quarter Daybue sales and the FY24 guidance from Acadia. The broker assesses underpinning the valuation of Neuren Pharmaceuticals and material future earnings growth is NNZ-2591, and Daybue is a way to fund the product's development.

The broker asks investors to look at the "big picture opportunity", given Daybue is an impressive drug, already run rating at more than US$300m a year and filling a critical unmet need. Overweight retained. Target is reduced to $26.58 from $27.23.

This report was published on February 29, 2024.

Target price is $26.58 Current Price is $19.46 Difference: $7.12
If NEU meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 50.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 57.74.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.81

Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Overweight (2) –

PointsBet has confirmed FY24 guidance of an EBITDA loss of -$9-14m. Jarden calculates the company is now tracking at break even or slightly profitable.

New information was limited in the report but the broker believes investors should be encouraged by the trajectory.

Separately, the appointment of Daniel Lucas as group chief technology officer has impressed the broker because of his experience and because it highlights the company's commitment to technology. Overweight retained. Target rises to $1.05 from $1.00.

This report was published on February 26, 2024.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.235
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 9.59.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QOR    QORIA LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.24

Wilsons rates ((QOR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons is anticipating FY24 could prove a pivotal year for Qoria, expecting investment and consolidation throughout the year will see the company deliver robust sales pipeline conversion in the fourth quarter.

The broker points out the pipeline stood at $20m in late January, and the company continues to add $0.5m to it weekly. Alongside the annualised benefits of a -$3m data hosting saving and -$4m on staff costs, Wilsons expects finances to be considerably more appealing.

The Overweight rating and target price of 37 cents are retained.

This report was published on February 28, 2024.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.24 Difference: $0.13
If QOR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.28.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SMR    STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $3.41

Petra Capital rates ((SMR)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital assesses a "solid" FY23 result for Stanmore Resources even though earnings (EBITDA) fell -6% below the broker's forecast on lower coal prices and higher non-operating expenses.

Higher-than-expected financing costs and D&A expense also drove a material profit miss, explains the analyst. Cash flow was considered strong, allowing a balance between future commitments (capex and M&A-related payments), growth and dividends.

A final fully franked dividend of US8.4cps was declared, missing Petra Capital's forecast for US11.6cps.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price rises to $5.52 from $5.44.

This report was published on February 27, 2024.

Target price is $5.52 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $2.11
If SMR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 62% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.24 cents and EPS of 74.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.58.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.20 cents and EPS of 49.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.90.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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