Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 10, 2024

This story features ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALK

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ALK   ALL   AMC   ASX   BLX   BRI   CIA   CKF   DUG   HLO   IFL   IRE   LNW   LOV   MDR   NAB   PXA   QUB   RWC   SDR   TPW   WES   WOW   XRO  

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.57

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

The March quarterly report for Alkane Resources revealed gold production of 10.9koz, compared to the 14.9koz forecast by Moelis, while costs (AISC) of $2,454/oz missed the expected $2,263/oz. The latter was a direct result of the production miss, notes the broker.

Recoveries were negatively impacted in the quarter when ore mined from the Caloma Two deposit contained carbonaceous material, which reduced the effectiveness of the carbon-in-leach circuit, explains the analyst.

Management's FY24 guidance for both production and costs was unchanged.

The Buy rating is maintained and the target eases to 95c from $1.00.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.57 Difference: $0.38
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.27.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.05.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $39.16

Jarden rates ((ALL)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden has some concerns around management's ability to successfully implement its “Build and Buy” iGaming strategy following the announced departure of Mitchell Brown, Anaxi CEO and Chief Transformation Officer.

However, these concerns are somewhat mitigated by new leadership in the form of NeoGames CEO Moti Malul for Aristocrat Interactive (the new name for the combined Anaxi and NeoGames operations). Malul has iGaming and iLotteries experience.

In late-April, Aristocrat Leisure announced the completion of the US$1.2bn NeoGames acquisition.

The Buy rating and target price of $47.20 are retained.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $47.20 Current Price is $39.16 Difference: $8.04
If ALL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $47.60, suggesting upside of 21.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 77.00 cents and EPS of 220.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 214.7, implying annual growth of -3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 87.00 cents and EPS of 249.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 232.2, implying annual growth of 8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMC    AMCOR PLC

Paper & Packaging – Overnight Price: $15.48

Jarden rates ((AMC)) as Neutral (3) –

Post a change in analyst coverage, Jarden considers the 3Q24 results and the uplift in the lower end of FY24 guidance as positive from Amcor.

The main drivers include better margins in the 3Q24 from plant restructuring, labour cost and procurement rationalistion, as well as falling raw material prices.

Interest costs also contributed to the improved guidance.

Although the analyst notes an improvement in both flexible and rigid volumes, the uncertainty around future demand places a break on the earnings upgrades and rating.

Jarden lifts the FY24 EPS and FY25 forecasts marginally by 4% and 0.3%, respectively.

Neutral rating unchanged and the target is raised to $14.80 from $14.40.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $15.48 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If AMC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.79, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 75.74 cents and EPS of 107.44 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 75.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 77.11 cents and EPS of 108.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.7, implying annual growth of 6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $64.39

Jarden rates ((ASX)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden continues to see emerging upside risk to FY25 consensus EPS forecasts for the ASX from stronger futures volumes and tighter cost control.

The broker's view follows a -6% fall in March daily average futures volume growth on the previous corresponding period. However, preliminary April data suggest a 41% rebound, the highest growth rate in the past decade, note the analysts.

The $63.30 target and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $63.30 Current Price is $64.39 Difference: minus $1.09 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $62.68, suggesting downside of -2.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 209.40 cents and EPS of 246.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.0, implying annual growth of 49.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 225.90 cents and EPS of 265.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.7, implying annual growth of 4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BLX    BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $2.80

Jarden rates ((BLX)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden's "Digging Deeper" series on Beacon Lighting concludes the company should experience demand growth from a cyclical upswing related to rising house prices and improved alterations and additions (A&A) activity.

Historically, the broker highlights, the company's share price has a 65% correlation to the A&A market, 63% to house prices, and 45% to turnover.

While the broker is not looking for a renovations boom in FY24/FY25, the analysts do expect the market to improve substantially from FY26, as soft homebuilding drives demand for home improvements.

The analyst believes there are upside risks to the retail forecasts for FY25. Overweight rating and $2.90 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.90 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.1
If BLX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.20 cents and EPS of 13.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.29.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.72.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRI    BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.47

Moelis rates ((BRI)) as Buy (1) –

While not issuing FY24 guidance, management at Big River Industries has noted current trading conditions are challenging and likely to persist into Q4.

The broker points out residential housing exposure continues to weigh on the company's stock price. Margin compression from softer revenues is being partially offset by the inclusion in the analysts' forecasts of the recently acquired Specialised Laminators, Queensland.

For the medium-term, the company noted underlying demand is supported by a solid commercial project pipeline, as well as an eventual uplift in housing starts to address the housing supply deficit.

The broker's Buy rating is retained given the business is trading at a significant discount to peer valuations. The target is reduced to $2.00 from $2.29.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.47 Difference: $0.535
If BRI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.95.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.10 cents and EPS of 11.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.42.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $7.14

Jarden rates ((CIA)) as Overweight (1) –

Jarden recently highlighted the best ideas from among its coverage of 23 emerging companies.

Temple & Webster continues to be the preferred exposurre, with the stock price having recently retraced after a share price lift post reporting. Other key picks are Lovisa Holdings, SiteMinder, Nick Scali and Universal Store.

Champion Iron enters the broker's best ideas due to strategic advantages in terms of prosecuting markets willing to pay a premium for low carbon steel. The company is also thought to have inherent organic operational growth and economic beneficiation optionality.

Target $7.95. Buy.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $7.95 Current Price is $7.14 Difference: $0.81
If CIA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $9.26

Wilsons rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (1) –

Adjusting for recent peer related results and industry data, Wilsons lowers FY24 sales forecasts for Collins Foods by -2% due to a decline in same store sales to 1.5% from 2.5% in the 2H24, as well as FY25.

Changes to the sales estimates and lower margins in the short term lead to a decline in EBITDA estimates by 2%-3%.

The broker highlights that its  FY24 EPS forecast sits -12% below consensus. Target price is revised lower to $12.72 from $13.41.

Overweight rating retained. The valuation is considered attractive, with the prospective FY25 PE ratio at 16.4x versus the historical average of between 15x to 25x.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $12.72 Current Price is $9.26 Difference: $3.46
If CKF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.28, suggesting upside of 32.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 47.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.58.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.6, implying annual growth of 374.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 63.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.1, implying annual growth of 24.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUG    DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED

Cloud services – Overnight Price: $2.82

Wilsons rates ((DUG)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) –

Wilsons initiates coverage of Dug Technology with an Overweight rating and a $3.58 target price.

The broker is positive on the company due to its "globally competitive" Multi Parameter FWI technology in the Oil and Gas sectors which reported a 45% uplift in the 1H24 order book.

Management also opened a Dubai office which to Wilsons suggests there is potential Middle East demand.

Although the business is based on cyclical sectors, there is scope for Dug Technology to grow market share and its expertise in Liquid Immersion Cooling has growth potential in the data centre markets.

No guidance has been offered, but the analyst suggests there is upside potential to forecasts.

Overweight rating. Target price of $3.58.

This report was published on May 3, 2024.

Target price is $3.58 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $0.76
If DUG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 97.24.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 56.40.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO    HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $2.48

Jarden rates ((HLO)) as Overweight (2) –

Helloworld Travel reported a miss on the 3Q24 trading update once the Express Travel Group acquisition is backed out and like-for-like annual EBITDA is compared, according to the analyst at Jarden.

Management did reaffirm FY24 EBITDA guidance of $64m-$72m. 3Q total transaction value rose 43% year-on-year, with 59% growth forecast for FY24. Margins were under pressure from the product mix (airline versus cruise).

Jarden lowers  FY24 and FY25 earnings forecasts by -2% on easing total transaction values.

An Overweight rating is maintained with a $3.70 target price, down from $3.75.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.48 Difference: $1.22
If HLO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.72, suggesting upside of 50.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of 97.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 28.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 21.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFL    INSIGNIA FINANCIAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $2.36

Jarden rates ((IFL)) as Overweight (2) –

Insignia Financial reported a miss on the 3Q FUMA by -0.3% according to the forecast from Jarden on the back of more net outflows from the MLS Wrap transition.

Management signaled an improvement in net inflows in the 4Q, as well as cost improvements.

The broker adjusts the earnings forecasts for the lower-than-expected update with FY24 EPS revised down by -0.4% and -1.4% for FY25.

The target price is reduced slightly to $2.95 from $3, but Jarden views the valuation, which is at a -25% discount to the 3-year average at 7.5x forward earnings, as compelling.

Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.36 Difference: $0.59
If IFL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.60, suggesting upside of 10.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 30.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.2, implying annual growth of 2236.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.70 cents and EPS of 32.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE    IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $8.59

Wilsons rates ((IRE)) as Market Weight (3) –

Iress reported a 4% FY24 EBITDA guidance upgrade to $122m-$132m before the AGM due to transformation initiatives, in advance of MSO being separated on June 20.

Assuming the separation is on schedule, Wilsons estimates the adjusted EBITDA is $1m-$2m ahead of original expectations.

Management increased prices by 5%-6% on April 1 and some client churn may result, although no material impact on earnings is forecast.

Iress offered no comments on takeover speculation. Market weighting retained and the target is revised to $9.17.

This report was published on May 3, 2024.

Target price is $9.17 Current Price is $8.59 Difference: $0.58
If IRE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.84, suggesting upside of 2.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 35.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 17.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $150.00

Jarden rates ((LNW)) as Upgrade to Buy from Overweight (1) –

The recent fall in the Light & Wonder share price is put down to macro concerns around a weaker US consumer, lower interest rate cuts, alongside a slowdown in gross gaming revenues and comments from Aristocrat Lesiure ((ALL)) on casino purchase intentions, according to Jarden.

There are no definitive signs of risks to the expected double digit earnings growth targets for FY25, while the company has grabbed market share gains in Australia from Aristocrat, alonsgide greater depth in the US games market.

There are no changes to forecasts at Jarden. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Overweight on the share price pullback and the target retained at $164.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $164.00 Current Price is $150.00 Difference: $14
If LNW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $163.00, suggesting upside of 8.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 436.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 631.0, implying annual growth of 133.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 553.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 779.0, implying annual growth of 23.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LOV    LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $30.92

Jarden rates ((LOV)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden recently highlighted the best ideas from among its coverage of 23 emerging companies.

Temple & Webster continues to be the preferred exposurre, with the stock price having recently retraced after a share price lift post reporting. Other key picks are Lovisa Holdings, SiteMinder, Nick Scali and Universal Store.

The Buy rating and $28.69 target are maintained for Lovisa Holdings.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $28.69 Current Price is $30.92 Difference: minus $2.23 (current price is over target).
If LOV meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.36, suggesting downside of -1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 73.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 78.1, implying annual growth of 23.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 93.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.6, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 86.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MDR    MEDADVISOR LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.33

Moelis rates ((MDR)) as Buy (1) –

Gross profit margins in the 3Q for MedAdvisor increased to 63.2%, compared to 60.6% in the previous corresponding period. The rising margin occurred after 42% revenue growth, which was well ahead of the Moelis forecast.

The broker explains the margin uplift was due to a combination of the rebound in digital programs in the US and incremental transaction revenue in A&NZ.

Ongoing expansion of vaccine programs in the US, as well as growth in existing customers, contributed to revenue growth, while a stronger US dollar provided a currency tailwind, explains Moelis. 

Price increases and the implementation of transaction revenue in Australia also assisted, notes the analyst.

Management noted THRiV (omni-channel patient engagement) was gaining traction and is now expected to contribute 18% of FY24 US revenue, up from 3% in FY23.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 41c from 38 cents.

This report was published on May 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.41 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.08
If MDR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 330.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 330.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $33.52

Goldman Sachs rates ((NAB)) as Buy (1) –

A -13% decline in 1H24 cash earnings for National Australia Bank was a slight beat on Goldman Sachs estimates.

The 84c dividend announcement was higher than expected (81c forecast) and management topped up the buyback with another $1.5bn.

Goldman Sachs views the outlook for the bank positively, even with the exposure to the small and medium size business sector.

The broker rates the asset quality as strong. Lending growth in the commercial sector is anticipated to be more robust than the housing sector.

The broker lifts EPS forecasts for FY24 by 2.4% and 2.8% for FY25. A Buy rating is retained and the target price lifts to $34.04 from $33.89.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $34.04 Current Price is $33.52 Difference: $0.52
If NAB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.24, suggesting downside of -9.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 225.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 222.5, implying annual growth of -5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 225.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 225.0, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 169.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $14.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((PXA)) as Neutral (3) –

Pexa Group announced that NatWest is one of two lenders who have agreed to use the company's "remo product "which will allow for 48-hour remortgage transactions for the bank's customers.

Goldman Sachs views this development positively, placing Pexa Group to be on track to increase the remo product share of 25% to 40% by FY25.

Neutral rating and $13.10 target price unchanged.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $14.65 Difference: minus $1.55 (current price is over target).
If PXA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $15.24, suggesting upside of 4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 66.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 92.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of 107.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QUB    QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.59

Goldman Sachs rates ((QUB)) as Buy (1) –

Qube Holdings has noted markets are performing in line with or ahead of expectations provided in February, resulting in upgraded FY24 underlying NPATA and EPSA guidance to growth of 10%-15% from 5%-10% prior.

Goldman Sachs had previously forecast around 10.5% growth for both metrics.

The Buy rating and $3.70 price target are maintained.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.59 Difference: $0.11
If QUB meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.64, suggesting upside of 1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 14.23 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.6, implying annual growth of 46.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.65 cents and EPS of 14.53 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.2, implying annual growth of 4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $5.01

Goldman Sachs rates ((RWC)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs raises its target for Reliance Worldwide to $5.35 from $5.00 after increasing earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 3% across FY25 and FY26 to reflect a full year contribution from the recently acquired Holman Industries.

On May 1, management confirmed its trading outlook for the remainder of FY24. Consoildated group revenue is expected to be down by low to mid-single digit percentage points compared with the previous corresponding period.

Goldman forecasts higher copper prices, but this cost hit should be largely recovered through incremental price rises, resulting in limited change to the broker's FY25/26 margin profile.

The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $5.35 Current Price is $5.01 Difference: $0.34
If RWC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.52, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.62 cents and EPS of 27.43 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.62 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.9, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDR    SITEMINDER LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $5.51

Jarden rates ((SDR)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden recently highlighted the best ideas from among its coverage of 23 emerging companies.

Temple & Webster continues to be the preferred exposurre, with the stock price having recently retraced after a share price lift post reporting. Other key picks are Lovisa Holdings, SiteMinder, Nick Scali and Universal Store.

The Buy rating and $6.02 target are maintained for SiteMinder.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $6.02 Current Price is $5.51 Difference: $0.51
If SDR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.52, suggesting upside of 18.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -1.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $10.36

Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden recently highlighted the best ideas from among its coverage of 23 emerging companies.

Temple & Webster continues to be the preferred exposurre, with the stock price having recently retraced after a share price lift post reporting. Other key picks are Lovisa Holdings, Siteminder, Nick Scali and Universal Store.

The Buy rating and $12.67 target are maintained for Temple & Webster.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $12.67 Current Price is $10.36 Difference: $2.31
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.73, suggesting upside of 13.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 172.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of -44.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 272.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 141.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 84.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 148.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WES    WESFARMERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $68.01

Goldman Sachs rates ((WES)) as Buy (1) –

Wesfarmers reaffirmed the expected future growth in Bunnings and KMart by increasing the available categories, a space increase of 10%  over 5-years and possible global expansion at the recent strategy day.

Management highlighted investment in new growth businesses like One Digital and Health was also in focus.

Goldman Sachs retains FY24 and FY25 earnings forecasts post the annual strategy day update.

A Buy rating and $68.80 target price are unchanged.

This report was published on May 3, 2024.

Target price is $68.80 Current Price is $68.01 Difference: $0.79
If WES meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.70, suggesting downside of -13.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 197.00 cents and EPS of 223.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 227.6, implying annual growth of 4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 193.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 228.00 cents and EPS of 260.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 248.9, implying annual growth of 9.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 212.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $30.78

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –

Woolworths Group envisages a challenging period over the next 12-months with low cost inflation and competition likely to impact on results.

3Q24 results were in line with Goldman Sachs but the stock was weaker off the back of the more sanguine outlook.

Management is increasing the supply chain cost ramp up by -$90m-$100m.

Competition is increasing in online/retail media with Coles Group ((COL)) realising 35% growth in eComm versus Woolworths Group at 18.4%.

Longer term, the analyst believes the company can maintain its market share position and leadership. The broker lowers FY24 EPS estimates by -1% out to -3% in FY26.

A Buy rating is retained. The target is lowered to $39.40 from $40.40.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $39.40 Current Price is $30.78 Difference: $8.62
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.83, suggesting upside of 6.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 108.00 cents and EPS of 143.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.7, implying annual growth of 3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 113.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 114.00 cents and EPS of 150.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 142.2, implying annual growth of 3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $125.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs upgrades FY25 and FY26 revenue forecasts for Xero by 2% and 3%, respectively, after management announced changes to Australian subscription plans from July 1.

In a clear positive for the business, according to the broker, the product ladder will be streamlined, with less plans and greater segmentation between plans. Also, 8-9% price rises on the Starter/Standard plans, and 0-14% for the Ultimate plans will be introduced.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $156 from $152.

FY24 results are due on May 23.

This report was published on May 2, 2024.

Target price is $156.00 Current Price is $125.80 Difference: $30.2
If XRO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $127.25, suggesting upside of 1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 99.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 184.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 149.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 83.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.8, implying annual growth of 62.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 113.5.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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