In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 06-09-24

This story features ACCENT GROUP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AX1

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Accent Group’s FY24 Gross Profit Margins missing consensus by only -34bps is more than offset by a 1.2% cost of doing busines
beat, further cost-out in FY25-27, and a strong trading update for the first seven weeks of FY25, Jarden suggests.

The broker considers the sell-off an overreaction, particularly given Accent has multiple significant growth drivers in the medium
term as it buys back Athlete’s Foot franchisees, closes unprofitable stores, annualises FY24 cost-outs, and continues to expand its network.

Jarden upgrades to Buy from Overweight to Buy, with Accent presenting further upside through improving potentially conservative store guidance, potential FX gross margin tailwinds and clarity regarding the extent of FY25-27 cost-out at the next update.

Target rises to $2.29 from $2.28.

DICKER DATA LIMITED ((DDR)) Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

After adjusting for bad debts, Dicker Data’s 1H profit (PBT) met the consensus forecast but opex was higher-than-expected due to an increased headcount needed to support new vendor additions, explains Jarden.

The broker’s target falls to $10.60 from $11.38 largely due to forecast downgrades for the adjusted PBT margin on the back of increased FY24-FY26 opex forecasts.

The Buy rating is unchanged, with the analysts reiterating Dicker Data is a 2H/FY25 story partly due to benefits from the refresh cycle and the tailwind from AI PC’s.

ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED ((EOS)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

As was the case in 2H23, Electro Optic Systems’ 1H24 results demonstrate the company’s ability to operate at scale and deliver a net profit margin of 5% excluding current debt servicing costs, Petra Capital notes.

But for the company to sustain this level of underlying profitability, further contract wins are required. Petra thinks Electro can do this,
and accordingly upgrades to a Speculative Buy rating from Hold.

Target falls to $1.85 from $1.89.

HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED ((HSN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Goldman Sachs raises its target for Hansen Technologies to $5.10 from $4.95 on higher earnings forecasts across FY25-27 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker has increased confidence in the organic growth outlook and management’s ability to extract synergies from Powercloud.

Further analysis of FY25 guidance by Goldman suggests sales in the core business (ex Powercloud) are accelerating to circa 8% year-on-year, largely driven by the structural tailwinds for digital transformation in the Energy vertical.

The broker expects healthy earnings in FY26 from Powercloud, noting a key re-rate catalyst would be further evidence on cost synergies.

INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED ((IDX)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons and Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Integral Diagnostics is upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight with a revised target price of $2.88.

Wilsons like the merger with Capitol Health ((CAJ)) and view it is a win for all shareholders.

FY24 revenue was a slight miss on Wilsons’ forecast, due to an uptake in market share and cost-out initiatives. The broker sees an improved pathway to 21%-22% margins after $1m in savings.

Overweight. Target $2.88.

Integral Diagnostics reported FY24 underlying profit 1.5% ahead of Jarden. The company delivered on guidance, achieving
a material improvement in earnings margin in the second half.

With FY24 now a solid base for both Integral Diagnostics and Capitol Health ((CAJ)) to build on, the upside potential of a combined group would be attractive, the broker suggests.

Target rises to $2.83 from $2.59 and the broker upgrades its rating to Overweight from Neutral given the earnings profile and upside potential from the proposed Capitol Health merger.

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED ((JIN)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jumbo Interactive delivered on guidance in FY24, with underlying EBITDA of $79.3m in line with Jarden. The broker lowers estimates for FY25 by -3.6%, largely driven by the smallest managed services segment of the business.

The broker notes the company has made efforts to reset and strengthen its offshore base before pursuing future growth. Guidance takes into consideration a normalisation of jackpots which appears conservative.

The share price response to the results, down -16%, appears overdone and Jarden increases the rating to Overweight from Underweight. Target is reduced to $14.70 from $15.20.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity continues to believe neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) pricing is at a cycle bottom and is more constructive on price increases into the end-2024 and 2025. However, shorter-term forecasts are marked-to-market and lowered.

The broker’s long-term pricing remains anchored to “incentive” levels of US$120/kg NdPr, and US$430/kg and US$1,600/kg, respectively, for dysprosium (Dy) and terbium (Tb).

For Lynas Rare Earths, the broker’s target rises to $7.15 from $6.25. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold to reflect updated reserves, inclusion of separated Dy/Tb, minor increases in NdPr production in FY25 and revisions to modelled production costs.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Goldman Sachs.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Goldman Sachs observes FY24 results for Mineral Resources were broadly in line excluding the substantial increase in gearing with around a $3bn rise in net debt.

A recent decline in both the iron ore and lithium price is also noted with management cutting lithium volumes at Mt Marion and deferring the Wodgina lithium Train 3 and Ashburton iron ore stage 2.

Capex is still expected to advance around $2bn in FY25, well above the broker’s estimate.

Goldman Sachs adjusts EPS forecasts by 125% and -35% for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price falls to $43, down -9%. Upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED ((SXL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity highlights Southern Cross Media’s core audio business is returning to revenue growth, a FY25 dividend yield of 10.5% is forecast, and there is potential for a near-term divestment of the company’s Regional TV asset.

Following broadly in-line FY24 results, showing gathering momentum in the 2H which continued into early-FY25, the broker raises its target to 96c from 90c and upgrades to Buy from Hold.

According to management, digital audio should be cash flow positive in FY25. The focus is upon paying down debt, explain the analysts, so no final dividend was declared.

VITURA HEALTH LIMITED ((VIT)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Following in-line FY24 results and improved FY25 margin guidance, Petra Capital raises its target for Vitura Health to 12c from 9c and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Hold.

Management noted the lower margin in FY24 (27.6%, down from 34.5% in FY23) was due to intensified competitive pressures within the medicinal cannabis sector. Despite this, unit sales increased by 7% in FY24 via the Canview platform, observes the analyst.

Downgrade

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Lovisa Holdings’ FY24 profit beat Jarden’s estimate by 2%. The 2H24 gross profit margin beat the broker and cost of doing business was below.

The FY25-to-date trading update nevertheless disappointed relative to estimates, with sales growth of only 2% year on year despite cycling a comparable of -6% and estimated price increases of 3-5% that were not in the comparable.

The store rollout update (up 8 net) is weak on top of the number of stores at the end of FY24 being -14 below consensus, although this was expected.

The impending exit of Lovisa’s CEO is likely to raise execution and sentiment risk in the short term and as a result Jarden downgrades to Neutral from Buy, highlighting a preference in the sector for Universal Store ((UNI)) and Accent Group ((AX1)).

Target falls to $30.59 from $33.08.

MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED ((MMS)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

While McMillan Shakespeare revealed a “strong” (in-line with consensus) FY24 result, in Canaccord Genuity’s view, the broker’s rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Key positives, according to the analyst, were strong cashflows leading to an increased net corporate cash position of $86.8m, along with
the Group Remuneration Services (GRS) EBITDA margin holding at around 45%.

The broker lacks some conviction around the short-term earnings outlook and slightly reduces novated lease yields forecasts, and, by extension, margins within GRS for FY25.

The target falls to $18.50 from $21.80.

NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((NIC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Nickel Industries’ first half earnings missed Canaccord Genuity’s forecast due to higher expenses and lower than previously reported earnings from its HPAL operations.

The broker has adjusted its price target for the result, cash position, and lower enterprise multiple resulting in a target cut to 85c from 95c.

Nickel Industries is approaching a period of investment, and Canaccord believes low cash flow with elevated debt, hence a downgrade to Hold from Buy.

TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED ((THL)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

With revised guidance the -33% fall in FY24 net profit for Tourism Holdings Rentals was broadly in line with Wilsons’ expectations.

NZ reported a record EBIT result which was offset by weakness in other parts of the business, including a writedown of goodwill for the UK.

The RV sector remains challenged the broker highlights. When combined with lower capex, slower fleet growth is likely.

Wilsons lowers earnings forecasts by -5% to -10% for FY25 to FY27.

Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight. Target price falls -10% to $1.90.

Order	Company	New Rating	Old Rating	Broker
Upgrade
1	ACCENT GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Jarden
2	DICKER DATA LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Jarden
3	ELECTRO OPTIC SYSTEMS HOLDINGS LIMITED	Buy	Buy	Petra Capital
4	HANSEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Goldman Sachs
5	INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Wilsons
6	INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Jarden
7	JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED	Buy	Sell	Jarden
8	LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Canaccord Genuity
9	MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED	Neutral	Sell	Goldman Sachs
10	SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Canaccord Genuity
11	VITURA HEALTH LIMITED	Buy	Neutral	Petra Capital
Downgrade
12	LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Jarden
13	MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
14	NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Canaccord Genuity
15	TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED	Neutral	Buy	Wilsons

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change
29M	29Metals	$0.35	Canaccord Genuity	0.32	0.34	-5.88%
ABB	Aussie Broadband	$3.64	Wilsons	3.62	3.32	9.04%
ADH	Adairs	$1.96	Jarden	2.04	2.09	-2.39%
			Wilsons	1.95	2.00	-2.50%
AGN	Argenica Therapeutics	$0.79	Petra Capital	1.14	1.00	14.00%
ALC	Alcidion Group	$0.06	Canaccord Genuity	0.09	0.10	-10.00%
ALK	Alkane Resources	$0.40	Petra Capital	1.00	1.13	-11.50%
AMA	AMA Group	$0.06	Canaccord Genuity	0.10	0.14	-28.57%
ANG	Austin Engineering	$0.53	Petra Capital	0.60	0.67	-10.45%
APA	APA Group	$7.21	Jarden	8.45	8.70	-2.87%
APX	Appen	$1.14	Canaccord Genuity	1.20	0.80	50.00%
AQZ	Alliance Aviation Services	$2.89	Wilsons	4.22	4.49	-6.01%
ARU	Arafura Rare Earths	$0.16	Canaccord Genuity	0.25	0.40	-37.50%
ASG	Autosports Group	$2.08	Jarden	2.90	3.20	-9.38%
ASN	Anson Resources	$0.10	Petra Capital	0.41	0.40	2.50%
ATA	Atturra	$0.89	Moelis	1.28	1.25	2.40%
AX1	Accent Group	$2.31	Jarden	2.29	2.28	0.44%
BEN	Bendigo & Adelaide Bank	$11.82	Jarden	11.20	10.20	9.80%
BGL	Bellevue Gold	$1.16	Goldman Sachs	1.70	2.20	-22.73%
BHP	BHP Group	$38.91	Goldman Sachs	49.10	48.40	1.45%
BOQ	Bank of Queensland	$6.32	Jarden	6.00	5.80	3.45%
BRE	Brazilian Rare Earths	$2.61	Petra Capital	4.55	4.36	4.36%
BSA	BSA	$0.91	Canaccord Genuity	1.62	1.40	15.71%
BTH	Bigtincan Holdings	$0.12	Canaccord Genuity	0.40	0.80	-50.00%
CKF	Collins Foods	$7.64	Canaccord Genuity	7.70	9.20	-16.30%
CLG	Close the Loop	$0.21	Canaccord Genuity	0.53	0.65	-18.46%
COE	Cooper Energy	$0.19	Canaccord Genuity	0.30	0.27	11.11%
			Goldman Sachs	0.25	0.15	66.67%
			Jarden	0.25	0.26	-3.85%
			Petra Capital	0.40	0.38	5.26%
COL	Coles Group	$18.40	Jarden	17.10	16.90	1.18%
CTT	Cettire	$1.36	Petra Capital	1.15	1.20	-4.17%
CUV	Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals	$14.82	Wilsons	30.16	31.38	-3.89%
CXL	Calix	$0.89	Canaccord Genuity	2.40	7.70	-68.83%
DDR	Dicker Data	$8.95	Goldman Sachs	9.80	9.85	-0.51%
			Jarden	10.60	11.38	-6.85%
DEG	De Grey Mining	$1.10	Goldman Sachs	1.40	1.35	3.70%
DRE	Dreadnought Resources	$0.02	Canaccord Genuity	0.05	0.07	-28.57%
DSK	Dusk Group	$1.09	Canaccord Genuity	1.60	1.15	39.13%
DXB	Dimerix	$0.41	Petra Capital	1.33	1.36	-2.21%
EDV	Endeavour Group	$4.99	Jarden	6.00	6.30	-4.76%
EML	EML Payments	$0.76	Wilsons	1.20	1.17	2.56%
EMN	Euro Manganese	$0.06	Canaccord Genuity	0.20	1.15	-82.61%
EOS	Electro Optic Systems	$1.38	Canaccord Genuity	1.85	1.95	-5.13%
			Petra Capital	1.85	1.89	-2.12%
EQT	EQT Holdings	$29.65	Wilsons	33.50	33.90	-1.18%
EVT	EVT Ltd	$10.14	Jarden	12.46	12.44	0.16%
FLT	Flight Centre Travel	$21.05	Jarden	24.60	24.00	2.50%
			Wilsons	28.56	28.96	-1.38%
FMG	Fortescue	$16.13	Jarden	15.84	17.52	-9.59%
FWD	Fleetwood	$1.78	Moelis	2.09	2.10	-0.48%
GDG	Generation Development	$2.73	Moelis	3.33	2.94	13.27%
GDI	GDI Property	$0.67	Moelis	0.98	1.00	-2.00%
GLN	Galan Lithium	$0.12	Petra Capital	0.38	0.51	-25.49%
GMD	Genesis Minerals	$2.14	Moelis	2.50	2.15	16.28%
GNG	GR Engineering Services	$1.70	Taylor Collison	N/A	2.52	-100.00%
GNP	GenusPlus Group	$2.24	Moelis	2.78	1.65	68.48%
GTN	GTN	$0.47	Canaccord Genuity	0.65	0.70	-7.14%
GYG	Guzman y Gomez	$37.47	Wilsons	41.14	31.98	28.64%
HAS	Hastings Technology Metals	$0.27	Canaccord Genuity	0.35	2.20	-84.09%
HLO	Helloworld Travel	$1.91	Jarden	3.10	3.70	-16.22%
HSN	Hansen Technologies	$4.42	Goldman Sachs	5.10	4.95	3.03%
HVN	Harvey Norman	$4.61	Goldman Sachs	4.50	4.60	-2.17%
IDX	Integral Diagnostics	$2.58	Canaccord Genuity	2.50	2.10	19.05%
			Jarden	2.83	2.59	9.27%
			Wilsons	2.88	2.12	35.85%
IEL	IDP Education	$15.57	Goldman Sachs	19.85	21.75	-8.74%
			Jarden	19.60	17.75	10.42%
IGO	IGO	$5.27	Canaccord Genuity	4.70	4.80	-2.08%
			Goldman Sachs	6.35	6.75	-5.93%
ILU	Iluka Resources	$5.79	Canaccord Genuity	6.30	6.70	-5.97%
ING	Inghams Group	$3.00	Goldman Sachs	2.90	3.15	-7.94%
			Jarden	3.65	3.95	-7.59%
IPD	ImpediMed	$0.05	Wilsons	0.17	0.18	-5.56%
IPG	IPD Group	$5.05	Moelis	5.76	5.05	14.06%
JIN	Jumbo Interactive	$13.50	Jarden	14.70	15.40	-4.55%
JLG	Johns Lyng	$3.67	Canaccord Genuity	6.23	8.75	-28.80%
			Moelis	5.03	7.42	-32.21%
KAR	Karoon Energy	$1.51	Jarden	2.20	2.25	-2.22%
			Wilsons	2.64	2.59	1.93%
KGN	Kogan.com	$4.67	Canaccord Genuity	8.20	8.00	2.50%
			Jarden	4.70	4.30	9.30%
KLS	Kelsian Group	$3.97	Canaccord Genuity	6.10	7.60	-19.74%
LBL	Laserbond	$0.56	Canaccord Genuity	1.10	1.25	-12.00%
LFG	Liberty Financial	$3.47	Jarden	3.75	4.00	-6.25%
LIN	Lindian Resources	$0.13	Canaccord Genuity	0.45	0.50	-10.00%
LOV	Lovisa Holdings	$31.87	Canaccord Genuity	31.20	29.00	7.59%
			Jarden	30.59	33.08	-7.53%
			Wilsons	35.50	30.40	16.78%
LYC	Lynas Rare Earths	$6.74	Canaccord Genuity	7.15	6.25	14.40%
M7T	Mach7 Technologies	$0.56	Wilsons	1.00	1.05	-4.76%
MAC	Metals Acquisition	$15.19	Wilsons	24.00	25.00	-4.00%
MAQ	Macquarie Technology	$76.50	Canaccord Genuity	116.00	118.00	-1.69%
			Goldman Sachs	84.90	90.20	-5.88%
			Petra Capital	87.81	90.27	-2.73%
			Wilsons	97.27	81.65	19.13%
MDR	MedAdvisor	$0.38	Canaccord Genuity	0.57	0.45	26.67%
			Moelis	0.53	0.58	-8.62%
MEI	Meteoric Resources	$0.09	Canaccord Genuity	0.40	0.45	-11.11%
MIN	Mineral Resources	$32.20	Goldman Sachs	43.00	47.00	-8.51%
			Jarden	32.00	44.70	-28.41%
MMS	McMillan Shakespeare	$16.11	Canaccord Genuity	18.50	21.80	-15.14%
MPL	Medibank Private	$3.85	Jarden	3.95	3.85	2.60%
MXI	MaxiPARTS	$1.83	Canaccord Genuity	2.50	2.62	-4.58%
MYX	Mayne Pharma	$4.61	Wilsons	5.93	7.09	-16.36%
NAN	Nanosonics	$3.56	Canaccord Genuity	3.12	5.00	-37.60%
NHF	nib Holdings	$6.02	Jarden	6.25	8.00	-21.88%
NIC	Nickel Industries	$0.77	Canaccord Genuity	0.85	0.95	-10.53%
NWC	New World Resources	$0.02	Petra Capital	0.10	0.13	-23.08%
NXD	NextEd Group	$0.17	Petra Capital	0.27	0.31	-12.90%
NXT	NextDC	$17.42	Wilsons	18.90	19.41	-2.63%
PAN	Panoramic Resources		Canaccord Genuity	N/A	0.22	-100.00%
PFP	Propel Funeral Partners	$5.76	Moelis	6.01	5.64	6.56%
PLY	Playside Studios	$0.55	Canaccord Genuity	1.05	0.85	23.53%
PPM	Pepper Money	$1.36	Goldman Sachs	1.55	1.67	-7.19%
			Jarden	1.60	1.55	3.23%
PPS	Praemium	$0.52	Canaccord Genuity	0.85	0.86	-1.16%
			Moelis	0.75	0.67	11.94%
			Wilsons	0.73	0.55	32.73%
PPT	Perpetual	$19.21	Jarden	21.85	21.75	0.46%
PSQ	Pacific Smiles	$1.79	Wilsons	1.80	1.40	28.57%
QAN	Qantas Airways	$6.84	Jarden	7.10	7.20	-1.39%
QOR	Qoria	$0.33	Wilsons	0.45	0.46	-2.17%
RDY	ReadyTech Holdings	$2.85	Jarden	3.54	3.50	1.14%
			Wilsons	3.74	3.91	-4.35%
REA	REA Group	$205.51	Goldman Sachs	223.00	221.00	0.90%
RED	Red 5	$0.31	Canaccord Genuity	0.43	0.46	-6.52%
			Moelis	0.50	0.58	-13.79%
			Petra Capital	0.44	0.51	-13.73%
REG	Regis Healthcare	$5.20	Jarden	4.46	3.64	22.53%
RMC	Resimac Group	$0.90	Jarden	0.98	0.93	5.38%
RUL	RPMGlobal	$2.60	Moelis	2.82	2.90	-2.76%
S32	South32	$3.04	Goldman Sachs	3.60	3.70	-2.70%
SDF	Steadfast Group	$6.37	Goldman Sachs	6.50	6.10	6.56%
			Jarden	6.55	6.10	7.38%
SDR	SiteMinder	$4.90	Goldman Sachs	5.70	5.50	3.64%
			Jarden	5.89	5.85	0.68%
SFR	Sandfire Resources	$8.15	Jarden	8.80	9.10	-3.30%
SGF	SG Fleet	$2.95	Canaccord Genuity	3.55	3.65	-2.74%
SHJ	Shine Justice	$0.82	Moelis	0.93	0.90	3.33%
SHL	Sonic Healthcare	$27.14	Jarden	25.88	26.19	-1.18%
SLH	Silk Logistics	$1.39	Moelis	1.67	1.88	-11.17%
SMR	Stanmore Resources	$2.70	Petra Capital	5.46	5.73	-4.71%
SNL	Supply Network	$28.67	Moelis	30.50	26.00	17.31%
SOM	SomnoMed	$0.43	Wilsons	0.42	0.36	16.67%
SPZ	Smart Parking	$0.59	Canaccord Genuity	0.75	0.70	7.14%
			Petra Capital	0.73	0.83	-12.05%
SXL	Southern Cross Media	$0.54	Canaccord Genuity	0.96	0.94	2.13%
TAH	Tabcorp Holdings	$0.39	Jarden	0.65	0.80	-18.75%
THL	Tourism Holdings Rentals	$1.91	Wilsons	1.90	2.12	-10.38%
TLX	Telix Pharmaceuticals	$17.44	Jarden	22.59	22.55	0.18%
TPG	TPG Telecom	$4.97	Goldman Sachs	4.40	4.35	1.15%
TRJ	Trajan Group	$1.14	Canaccord Genuity	1.40	1.20	16.67%
TYR	Tyro Payments	$1.04	Wilsons	1.18	1.30	-9.23%
VHM	VHM	$0.57	Canaccord Genuity	1.15	1.20	-4.17%
VIT	Vitura Health	$0.09	Petra Capital	0.12	0.09	33.33%
WDS	Woodside Energy	$25.00	Goldman Sachs	31.70	33.50	-5.37%
WEB	Webjet	$7.62	Jarden	9.45	10.30	-8.25%
			Wilsons	9.52	10.04	-5.18%
WES	Wesfarmers	$69.21	Goldman Sachs	66.60	69.20	-3.76%
WGX	Westgold Resources	$2.90	Canaccord Genuity	3.55	3.50	1.43%
			Petra Capital	3.75	3.67	2.18%
WOR	Worley	$14.76	Goldman Sachs	17.75	17.50	1.43%
WOW	Woolworths Group	$34.35	Jarden	38.60	39.90	-3.26%
WPR	Waypoint REIT	$2.66	Moelis	2.84	2.79	1.79%
Company		Last Price	Broker	New Target	Old Target	Change

More Highlights

ACE    ACUSENSUS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics Overnight Price: $0.68

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ACE)) as Buy (1)

Acusensus posted FY24 results that were in line with expectations with revenue growth of 18% and gross profit growth of 22%.

Canaccord Genuity found the outlook positive, with FY25 expected to show high revenue growth in the US and UK amid more modest growth in the Australian business.

The balance sheet strength and “land grab opportunity” provides the business with a first mover advantage and Canaccord Genuity retains a Buy rating and $1.30 target.

This report was published on August 27, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $0.68 Difference: $0.62
If ACE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 91% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 48.57.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 75.56.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics Overnight Price: $2.96

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1)

FY24 EBITDA from Alliance Aviation Services was ahead of Wilsons, implying stronger margins per aircraft. The company has noted continued growth in activity as additional aircraft enter its fleet.

FY25 is expected to be active for part sales as airlines globally deal with engine reliability issues. Wilsons was impressed with the growth trajectory, noting industry demand/supply dynamics remain favourable. Overweight. Target is reduced to $4.22 from $4.49.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $4.22 Current Price is $2.96 Difference: $1.26
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 39.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.53.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 17.10 cents and EPS of 46.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.39.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ATA    ATTURRA LIMITED

Software & Services Overnight Price: $0.90

Moelis rates ((ATA)) as Buy (1)

Attura delivered a strong FY24 result, Moelis observes, with acquisitions contributing to 27.4% of revenue growth. The broker’s estimates going forward are broadly unchanged while FY26 and FY27 are expected to benefit from higher FY25 client wins and tendering volumes.

Having outperformed guidance for FY24 the broker remains confident in the outlook for revenue for the next 12 months. Buy rating. Target is $1.28.

This report was published on August 26, 2024.

Target price is $1.28 Current Price is $0.90 Difference: $0.38
If ATA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.31.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.85.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOE    BOSS ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium Overnight Price: $2.55

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BOE)) as Speculative Buy (1)

Boss Energy’s FY24 profit of US$45m was just shy of Canaccord Genuity’s US$48m forecast and well ahead of the US$22m expected by consensus.

Management maintained FY25 production target for Honeymoon of at least 850klbs of U3O8.

One potentially positive share price catalyst, according to the broker, will be the start-up of IX columns 2 and 3 at Honeymoon  targeted for completion in the September and December quarters, respectively.

Speculative Buy and $5.85 target retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $5.85 Current Price is $2.55 Difference: $3.3
If BOE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.86, suggesting upside of 91.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.2, implying annual growth of 4.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 37.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 53.7, implying annual growth of 340.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BTH    BIGTINCAN HOLDINGS LIMITED

Cloud services Overnight Price: $0.12

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BTH)) as Hold (3)

Following elevated customer churn, consolidation of prior acquisitions, and a material cost base restructure in the 1H for Bigtincan Holdings, FY24 results illustrated business stabilisation, according to Canaccord Genuity.

Management provided an upbeat outlook with a return to “ARR growth in FY25” and an “EBITDA target of more than $14m” (FY24 $12m), which implies to the broker adjusted EBITDA of more than $16m.

The 40c target and Hold rating are unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.275
If BTH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 220% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.00.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 62.50.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSA    BSA LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers Overnight Price: $0.93

Canaccord Genuity rates ((BSA)) as Buy (1)

FY24 results from BSA, which were pre-released, reflected a significant period of refocusing the business back on core operations, Canaccord Genuity notes.

Momentum appears strong with FY25 expected to show similar volumes and the business targeting double-digit EBITDA margins for the medium term. The broker retains a Buy rating and lifts the target to $1.62 from $1.40.

This report was published on August 27, 2024.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.695
If BSA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.05.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 19.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.74.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CLG    CLOSE THE LOOP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers Overnight Price: $0.22

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CLG)) as Buy (1)

Close the Loop posted revenue and earnings that were in line with expectations and guidance. Canaccord Genuity suspects that net debt, which increased by $16m in the June half year, was the main driver of the drop in the share price.

The broker believes the business should be able to convert closer to 90% of EBITDA into cash noting the shares continue to trade at very low multiples.

Buy rating is retained as the current valuation appears to compensate investors for the risk in the business. Target is reduced to $0.53 from $0.65.

This report was published on August 26, 2024.

Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.31
If CLG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 141% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.31.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 6.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.61.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXL    CALIX LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers Overnight Price: $0.91

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CXL)) as Buy (1)

FY24 results from Calix signalled much reduced cash usage and sets the business up well for FY25, Canaccord Genuity asserts. The broker lowers FY25 revenue estimates by -4%, driven by a slight reduction in Magnesia but an increase in Leilac.

R&D expenditure is now modelled to the level of revenue from engineering studies and grant income. The broker changes its methodology in the current market environment, stripping the valuation back to tangible aspects of the business.

As a result the target is reduced to $2.40 from $7.70, although still offering significant upside to the current share price. Buy rating.

This report was published on August 28, 2024.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $0.91 Difference: $1.495
If CXL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 165% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.62.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of minus 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.34.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DSK    DUSK GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products Overnight Price: $1.09

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DSK)) as Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity describes “ebullient” early-FY25 trading demonstrating an unfolding turnaround for Dusk Group. Stronger 2H momentum was also noted within pre-released FY24 numbers.

In the first eight weeks of FY25, like-for-like sales, online sales and bricks and mortar sales grew by 12.1%, 39.1%, and 14.4%, respectively.

The new store rollout in FY24 was strong, suggests the analyst, with the opening of four net new stores.

The broker is encouraged by management’s planned growth initiatives including more frequent collaborations and activation of new customer cohorts.

The Buy rating is maintained. Target rises to $1.60 from $1.15.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $1.60 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.51
If DSK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 47% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 10.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.81.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLO    HELLOWORLD TRAVEL LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism Overnight Price: $2.02

Jarden rates ((HLO)) as Overweight (2)

Helloworld Travel’s result met FY24 earnings guidance, with underlying profit 2% ahead of Jarden. It was a strong result, the broker suggests, as the company benefited from the recovery in travel, Express Travel acquisition and higher profit from associates.

Pleasingly for the broker, June Q total transaction value trends lifted modestly to 46% year on year with demand from travel advisors solid. Disappointingly, few comments were made on outlook.

The key question for Jarden is management’s ability to execute on cost control and capitalise on increased air capacity in 2025 and positive elasticity from easing air ticket prices. Target falls to $3.10 from $3.70.

Overweight retained, but the broker has a preference for Flight Centre ((FLT)) and Webjet ((WEB)) in the travel space.

This report was published on September 2, 2024.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $1.08
If HLO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.82, suggesting upside of 41.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 23.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 27.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.8, implying annual growth of 7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPD    IMPEDIMED LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $0.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IPD)) as Buy (1)

FY24 results for ImpediMed were in line with quarterly reporting in July. However, Canaccord Genuity suggests share price pressure reflects a level of impatience as investors await sales execution, with a material uplift in new installed Sozo units remaining elusive.

Management highlighted actions to manage cash burn including a FY25 operating cash spend -10% lower than the FY24 level.

The broker suggests management’s aim to be breakeven by July 2025 is very optimistic, and the analyst’s forecasts assume a capital injection.

The Buy rating and 14c target are unchanged.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.092
If IPD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 192% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LBL    LASERBOND LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting Overnight Price: $0.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LBL)) as Buy (1)

Laserbond’s FY24 gross margin of 52% came in below Canaccord Genuity’s forecast for 53% driven by a lower gross margin in the Services segment. Revenue growth slowed to 11% year-on-year for this segment in the 2H from 15% in the 1H.

Products Division revenues did not catch up to the extent the broker had anticipated in the 2H, due to lingering problems with raw material supply from the 1H.

The underperformance by the Products segment is the main reason for the broker’s new target of $1.10, down from $1.25. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on August 26, 2024.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.59 Difference: $0.51
If LBL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 86% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.80 cents and EPS of 7.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.56.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

M7T    MACH7 TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED

Healthcare services Overnight Price: $0.56

Wilsons rates ((M7T)) as Overweight (1)

Wilsons believe FY24 has been a transformative year for Mach7 Technologies including improved product quality and better demand in the US market.

The broker highlights the market’s negative reaction to the FY24 results is due to the 12-month delay in reaching profitability.

Management guided to revenue growth of 15%-25% in FY25 and opex to remain below revenue growth.

Wilsons maintains an Overweight rating and $1.00 target.

This report was published on August 29, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.44
If M7T meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 79% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.56.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 186.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MDR    MEDADVISOR LIMITED

Healthcare services Overnight Price: $0.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MDR)) as Buy (1)

MedAdvisor’s FY24 result was in line with the June Q update. Execution has been very strong across the US and Australian segments, Canaccord Genuity notes, particularly with the THRiV omnichannel offering.

Scale has also started to come through at the operating level, and with additional investment into tech, systems and infrastructure, the broker sees a clear pathway to improved operating leverage in FY26 onward.

The longer-term structural growth story is shaping up nicely, Canaccord suggests, as pharma customers reap the benefits of MedAdvisor’s direct-to-patient marketing tools. Target rises to 57c from 45c, Buy retained.

This report was published on August 29, 2024.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.39 Difference: $0.18
If MDR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXD    NEXTED GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition Overnight Price: $0.17

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NXD)) as Buy (1)

NextEd Group’s FY24 result shaped better than Canaccord Genuity expected on 2H24 costs and stronger closing cash, which led to
a relief rally from depressed levels.

Increasing international vocational student numbers were pleasing to see, demonstrating execution around new course delivery and student take-up.

While the broker acknowledges near-term revenue has uncertainties, especially given ongoing government intervention, management looks to be taking a disciplined approach to managing profitability and cash balances under a range of revenue outcomes.

Buy and 60c target retained.

This report was published on August 30, 2024.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.435
If NXD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 264% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 16.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLY    PLAYSIDE STUDIOS LIMITED

Gaming Overnight Price: $0.61

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PLY)) as Buy (1)

There were no material surprises within FY24 results for Playside Studios due to the recent July trading up-date, explains Canaccord Genuity.

The broker points out Playside now enters a well flagged “development period” which will see a step-up for capex, and management reiterated all existing projects can be funded on balance sheet.

The Buy rating and $1.05 target are unchanged.

This report was published on August 26, 2024.

Target price is $1.05 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.44
If PLY meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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