Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Oct 03, 2024

This story features AIC MINES LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A1M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A1M   ACF   ALK   ASN   AYA   BRG   CKF (2)   DMP   DXS   FFM   GMD   GOR   GOZ   GYG   LTR   MAC   OBM   ORI   RIO   VAU  

A1M    AIC MINES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.36

Moelis rates ((A1M)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

AIC Mines is Buy rated. Target price lifts to 65c from 64c.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.285
If A1M meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ACF    ACROW LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.10

Petra Capital rates ((ACF)) as Buy (1) –

Acrow has reported a 51% jump in new hire contracts for Q1 FY25 compared to 17% growth in FY24. Petra Capital, however, leaves earnings forecasts unchanged awaiting greater clarity on the extent to which project delays are curtailing revenue conversion.

The contracts wins provide a good lead indicator for FY25 revenues, highlights the broker, and underline the strength of Acrow’s
competitive position, including the benefits being derived from the broadening suite of products and services.

The Buy rating and $1.32 target are maintained.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.32 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.22
If ACF meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.28, suggesting upside of 16.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.50 cents and EPS of 11.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of 36.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 14.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of 3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALK    ALKANE RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.44

Moelis rates ((ALK)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

Alkane Resources is Buy rated. Target price rises to 70c from 64c.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.70 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.26
If ALK meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASN    ANSON RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.07

Petra Capital rates ((ASN)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital has updated following a site visit to Anson Resources’ Utah operations, including the Green River Lithium project in the Paradox Basin, where product samples are being produced from the nearby brine well for further customer qualification.

The Utah state regulator has re-confirmed Anson’s brine extraction permit, note the analysts, and management has secured additional lithium leases at Green River from SITLA (the state School and Institutional Trust Land Administration).

Buy. The target falls to 35c from 41c after the broker adjusts for increased dilution post a $5m capital raise.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.275
If ASN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 367% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 37.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AYA    ARTRYA LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.34

Petra Capital rates ((AYA)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Petra Capital initiates coverage on AI health-tech play, Artrya, with a Buy rating and $2.21 target.

The company’s next generation deep machine learning solutions (branded Salix) are a point-of-care offering providing rapid result delivery to clinicians and are targeting a large and rapidly growing cardiac CT diagnosis market, explains the broker.

Radiologist shortages and increased scan volumes have seen AI become a cornerstone technology for diagnostic imaging companies aiming to lift margins and increase workflow efficiency, highlights Petra Capital.

After a hiccup in 2022, with the FDA knocking-back its first 510(k) process (Premarket Notification), the broker anticipates highly likely 1Q 2025 regulatory clearance of Artrya’s first commercial product in the US. Salix has already been launched in Australia.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.21 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $1.875
If AYA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 560% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 149.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.22.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 30.45.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $34.54

Petra Capital rates ((BRG)) as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) –

Due to incorrect data entry, Petra Capital’s rating for Breville Group should have been downgraded to Sell from Hold last month.

A summary of the broker’s research dated August 22 follows.

Expansion in gross margins and stronger sales in 2H24 helped Breville Group report slightly better than forecast FY24 earnings, Petra Capital notes.

Lower freight costs with promotional activity controlled boosted the gross margin by 140 basis points in 2H24. It is likely to remain flat, the broker highlights, into FY25. This means growth will depend on volume expansion.

The analyst believes new product launches, new markets and expansion of Lelit/Baratza should assist in volume growth.

Petra Capital makes minor EPS changes. Target price rises to $28.30 from $24.40. 

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $28.30 Current Price is $34.54 Difference: minus $6.24 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $33.17, suggesting downside of -4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 92.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.38.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.7, implying annual growth of 13.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.70 cents and EPS of 104.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 106.7, implying annual growth of 13.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $8.60

Goldman Sachs rates ((CKF)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs is cautiously optimistic on the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) outlook because consumer sentiment is trending
positively and as interest rate expectations and recent tax cuts are now being factored in.

Recent elevated population growth and a forecast return to growth in real disposable income and consumption are other factors behind the broker’s positive thesis.

The analysts commence coverage of Collins Foods with a Buy rating as cost growth has moderated (wages, poultry, electricity and rent growth falling), while oils and grains have returned to pre-covid levels.

Goldman also sees potential for increased Digital sales penetration; and notes the KFC presence is reaching scale in the Netherlands and expects improving KFC Europe margins in the long-term.

A $10 target is set.

This report was published on October 3, 2024.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $1.4
If CKF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 42.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (2) –

The worst has passed for quick service restaurants (QSR), concludes Jarden after a global review, as the cost of goods sold or COGS ease, the sector consolidates, and the sector cycles increased promotional intensity. 

Overall, the broker found Japan is showing the most positive signs, Europe is bottoming and the A&NZ region is steady. 

QSR’s are outpacing full-service restaurants (FSR) across Australia, the UK and Japan, as consumers trade down and look to save money via pickup versus delivery and fewer items per basket.

For Collins Foods, trends look no worse but are not significantly better and the broker prefers Domino’s Pizza Enterprises in the space.

The Overweight rating and $9.57 target are maintained.

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $9.57 Current Price is $8.60 Difference: $0.97
If CKF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.46, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 45.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.9, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 62.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 27.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $34.04

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

The worst has passed for quick service restaurants (QSR), concludes Jarden after a global review, as the cost of goods sold or COGS ease, the sector consolidates, and the sector cycles increased promotional intensity. 

Overall, the broker found Japan is showing the most positive signs, Europe is bottoming and the A&NZ region is steady. 

QSR’s are outpacing full-service restaurants (FSR) across Australia, the UK and Japan, as consumers trade down and look to save money via pickup versus delivery and fewer items per basket.

For Domino’s Pizza Enterprises, the analysts feel the end of negative revisions has been reached supported by regional performance, store closures and market share trends.

The Overweight rating and $42 target are maintained.

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $42.00 Current Price is $34.04 Difference: $7.96
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.14, suggesting upside of 0.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 149.00 cents and EPS of 145.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.8, implying annual growth of 32.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 109.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 192.00 cents and EPS of 186.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.64%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 167.6, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 132.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $7.58

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden remains Neutral rated on Dexus given the absence of an obvious catalyst for ongoing outperformance in a sector where the outlook is gradually improving. 

The current share price implies a further -6-21% drop in Office valuations, which appears overdone to the analysts.

Jarden’s target rises to $7.85 from $7.00 largely due to lower risk-free-rate assumptions and lower valuation for corporate overheads.

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.58 Difference: $0.27
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.56, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 61.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 62.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.9, implying annual growth of -1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FFM    FIREFLY METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.05

Moelis rates ((FFM)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

FireFly Metals is Buy rated. Target price rises to $1.30 from $1.15.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.05 Difference: $0.25
If FFM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GMD    GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.09

Moelis rates ((GMD)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

Genesis Minerals is Buy rated. Target price lifts to $2.65 from $2.50.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.09 Difference: $0.56
If GMD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.47, suggesting upside of 18.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of 104.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 5.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOR    GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.71

Moelis rates ((GOR)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

Gold Road Resources is Buy rated. Target price rises to $2.30 from $2.10.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $1.71 Difference: $0.595
If GOR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.01, suggesting upside of 18.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.2, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 50.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GOZ    GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $2.70

Moelis rates ((GOZ)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis observes Growthpoint Properties Australia has initiated Growthpoint Australia Logistics Partnership (GALP) which includes six industrial assets from Growthpoint Properties Australia at a value of $198m of which the REIT will have a 20% stake.

The 80% balance has been acquired by TPG Angelo Gordon a credit/real estate platform, the broker notes.

Net proceeds from the sale of $181m will be employed to paydown debt, lowering gearing -2bps to 38.7%.

Buy rated. Target price $3.32.

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $2.70 Difference: $0.62
If GOZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.55, suggesting downside of -5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.30 cents and EPS of 22.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 23.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of 3.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GYG    GUZMAN Y GOMEZ LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $39.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((GYG)) as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs is cautiously optimistic on the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) outlook because consumer sentiment is trending
positively and as interest rate expectations and recent tax cuts are now being factored in.

Recent elevated population growth and a forecast return to growth in real disposable income and consumption are other factors behind the broker’s positive thesis.

The analysts commence coverage of high-quality QSR operator Guzman y Gomez with a Sell rating as the long-term store expansion goal appears overstated and due to an overblown valuation.

The valuation is currently based on US peers rather than taking into account market differences in Australia, suggests Goldman.

A $33.20 target is set.

This report was published on October 3, 2024.

Target price is $33.20 Current Price is $39.36 Difference: minus $6.16 (current price is over target).
If GYG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $37.07, suggesting downside of -5.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 281.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 333.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 157.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.0, implying annual growth of 128.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 145.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LTR    LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.81

Jarden rates ((LTR)) as Underweight (4) –

Given the importance of the Kathleen Valley processing plant ramp-up which commenced within in the September quarter, FY24 results (released in late-September) showing a net loss of -$63.1m are of little consequence, suggests Jarden.

The Underweight rating is unchanged, and the target falls to 90c from $1.00 following reductions in the broker’s short-term SC6 price forecasts.

Reserves and resources were updated for the financial year end, note the analysts, with minor increase (0.8%) to reserves and a minor decrease to resource tonnes of -0.8%.

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.095
If LTR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 29.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -2997.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 670.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAC    METALS ACQUISITION LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $20.80

Moelis rates ((MAC)) as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy due to the recent 17% rally in the share price.

No change in the target price of $23.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $20.80 Difference: $2.2
If MAC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 69.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.80.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 115.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OBM    ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.61

Moelis rates ((OBM)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

Ora Banda Mining is Hold rated. Target price rises to 67c from 66c.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.055
If OBM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $17.86

Jarden rates ((ORI)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden believes earnings growth in Orica’s key Australia Pacific & Asia (APA) division will slow into FY26 on slowing recontracting growth for ammonium nitrate (AN).

The North American AN market is growing increasingly oversupplied due to the attractive gas input costs for AN production in the US and large agricultural producers switching AN into the explosives market, explains the broker.

Now that the Orica share price has rallied by 20.2% over the past year, and the risk/reward profile has turned negative, the analysts downgrade the rating for Orica to Neutral from Overweight. The $18.50 target is maintained.

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $18.50 Current Price is $17.86 Difference: $0.64
If ORI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $19.65, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 82.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.4, implying annual growth of 34.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 49.80 cents and EPS of 100.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.1, implying annual growth of 22.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $125.96

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs outlined key takeaways from touring Rio Tinto’s aluminium smelting assets in Quebec, Canada.

The broker highlighted Rio Tinto owns the world’s highest margin aluminium business with an average EBITDA margin of around 30% versus the industry average at circa 20%-25%.

Management revealed four strategies to raise production and margins, including the rollout of AP60 at Arvida and possibly Alma, lifting production by 100kt p.a.; increasing value add product offerings; raising secondary recycling in the US and new technologies to lower emissions.

The stock remains Buy rated with a $136.60 target price.

This report was published on October 1, 2024.

Target price is $136.60 Current Price is $125.96 Difference: $10.64
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $127.42, suggesting upside of 1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 651.42 cents and EPS of 966.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.03.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1022.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 608.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 666.57 cents and EPS of 1037.72 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1050.3, implying annual growth of 2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 627.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VAU    VAULT MINERALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver –

Moelis rates ((VAU)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis updates the gold, silver, copper and forex estimates and marks-to-market the changes to earnings estimates.

Vault Minerals is Buy rated with 54c target price, up from 50c.

This report was published on October 2, 2024.

Target price is $0.54

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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