Daily Market Reports | Jan 22 2025
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listedequities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArenahas now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listedstocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArenauniverse.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availabilityofsuitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publicationmay not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena'steam of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
AEL AQZ BHP BPT BRE BXB CKF CPU CSC CVN DMP FBU HGO(2) HUB(2) INR IRE KAR MEK MYR NST(2) OPT ORG PMV PNI QOR REH S32 STO VUL WDS
AEL AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil - Overnight Price: $0.20
Jarden rates ((AEL)) as Overweight (2) -
In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.
Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.
The broker forecasts Amplitude Energyto report 1.02mbarrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) production in the December quarter, slightly lower than consensus of 1.07mmboe.
Looking ahead, the broker seesupside potential from the drilling and connection of an Annie development welland likely exploration drilling.
The key question for investors is whether JV partner Mitsuiwill participate in the drilling program, stay in the JV but not participate, or sell its interests toanother party.
No change to Overweight rating but target price is slightly lower at 25c from 26c.
This report was published on January 20, 2025.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.045
If AEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 32.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 205.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 271.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AQZ ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics - Overnight Price: $2.85
Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) -
Ahead ofAlliance Aviation Services' 1H25 result and having considered recent flight data, Wilsons remains confident in its 1H25 and FY25earnings forecasts, supported by strong visibility over fleet deployment and utilisation.
The broker is forecasting FY25 profit before tax of $91.9m versus consensus of $93.5m. For 1H25, the forecast is $39.9m.
Potential share price catalysts for 2025 include the announcement of a capital allocation framework, renewed focus on operational efficiency and uplift in return on capital, and sales of surplus parts through Aviation Services.
No change to the $4.32 target price and Overweight rating.
This report was published on January 22, 2025.
Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $1.47
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.13.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 44.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.45.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BHP BHP GROUP LIMITED
Bulks - Overnight Price: $40.61
Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) -
Goldman Sachs observes BHP Group announced a strong 2Q25 report with copper and iron ore production exceeding expectations and reaching the upper end of guidance. Unit costs in 1H25 are trending at the top end of FY25 guidance, the broker states.
Realised copper and iron ore prices were softer than anticipated.
The analyst estimates net debt will reach US$14bn in FY25, with potential peak capex of -US$15bn and net debt of US$20bn. BHP's net debt ceiling appears "conservative" to the broker, who suggests a balance sheet target based on a leverage ratio would be more appropriate than net debt.
The broker lowers EPS estimates by -4% in FY25 and -1% in FY26. Target price moves down to $46.80 from $47.50. No change to Buy rating.
This report was published on January 21, 2025.
Target price is $46.80 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $6.19
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.90, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 156.75 cents and EPS of 315.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.89.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 323.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 176.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.97 cents and EPS of 342.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 341.3, implying annual growth of 5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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