Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jan 22, 2025

This story features AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AEL

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AEL   AQZ   BHP   BPT   BRE   BXB   CKF   CPU   CSC   CVN   DMP   FBU   HGO (2)   HUB (2)   INR   IRE   KAR   MEK   MYR   NST (2)   OPT   ORG   PMV   PNI   QOR   REH   S32   STO   VUL   WDS  

AEL    AMPLITUDE ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.20

Jarden rates ((AEL)) as Overweight (2) –

In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.

Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.

The broker forecasts Amplitude Energy to report 1.02m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) production in the December quarter, slightly lower than consensus of 1.07mmboe. 

Looking ahead, the broker sees upside potential from the drilling and connection of an Annie development well and likely exploration drilling. 

The key question for investors is whether JV partner Mitsui will participate in the drilling program, stay in the JV but not participate, or sell its interests to another party.

No change to Overweight rating but target price is slightly lower at 25c from 26c.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.045
If AEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 32.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 205.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 271.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AQZ    ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $2.85

Wilsons rates ((AQZ)) as Overweight (1) –

Ahead of Alliance Aviation Services’ 1H25 result and having considered recent flight data, Wilsons remains confident in its 1H25 and FY25 earnings forecasts, supported by strong visibility over fleet deployment and utilisation.

The broker is forecasting FY25 profit before tax of $91.9m versus consensus of $93.5m. For 1H25, the forecast is $39.9m.

Potential share price catalysts for 2025 include the announcement of a capital allocation framework, renewed focus on operational efficiency and uplift in return on capital, and sales of surplus parts through Aviation Services.

No change to the $4.32 target price and Overweight rating.

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $4.32 Current Price is $2.85 Difference: $1.47
If AQZ meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.13.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 44.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.45.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $40.61

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs observes BHP Group announced a strong 2Q25 report with copper and iron ore production exceeding expectations and reaching the upper end of guidance. Unit costs in 1H25 are trending at the top end of FY25 guidance, the broker states.

Realised copper and iron ore prices were softer than anticipated.

The analyst estimates net debt will reach US$14bn in FY25, with potential peak capex of -US$15bn and net debt of US$20bn. BHP’s net debt ceiling appears “conservative” to the broker, who suggests a balance sheet target based on a leverage ratio would be more appropriate than net debt.

The broker lowers EPS estimates by -4% in FY25 and -1% in FY26. Target price moves down to $46.80 from $47.50. No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $46.80 Current Price is $40.61 Difference: $6.19
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $44.90, suggesting upside of 12.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 156.75 cents and EPS of 315.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 323.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 176.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 171.97 cents and EPS of 342.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 341.3, implying annual growth of 5.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 189.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.48

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Neutral (3) –

In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.

Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.

The broker forecasts Beach Energy to report 4.9m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) production in the December quarter, -6% lower than the September 2024 quarter but higher than the consensus of 4.8 mmboe.

Sales volume is forecast to be 20% higher at 6.6 mmboe and also higher vs consensus of 5.6 mmboe.

Aside from mark-to-market and updated commodity price assumptions, the broker has included additional LNG sales cargoes in FY25 and higher production estimates in Vic Otway and Bass Basin. This has pushed target price higher to $1.40 from $1.33.

The rating is Neutral, but the broker sees upside risk on a 3-6 month view.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.48 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.54, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 26.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.4, implying annual growth of 25.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRE    BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $2.28

Petra Capital rates ((BRE)) as Buy (1) –

Brazilian Rare Earths released 69 new drill results from Monte Alto project which Petra Capital views as an exceptional result.

The broker notes the first release of diamond drill holes had an average grade and true widths of 17.6% total rare earth oxide and 6.1m respectively, and the latest result has improved them to 14.2% and 5.0m, the best in class for any rare earth project globally 

Strong results mean the broker has higher confidence the company will deliver double-digit grades in its maiden resource due in the June quarter.

No change to Buy rating and $5.21 target price.

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $5.21 Current Price is $2.28 Difference: $2.93
If BRE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 129% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 19.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BXB    BRAMBLES LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $19.10

Jarden rates ((BXB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden has observed an acceleration in Lumber input costs and delays in the pass-through to higher pallet pricing, leading to the weakest cost/pricing spread for the US Pallets industry since May 2022. The broker notes transport costs appear to have troughed, alongside Food & Beverage retailer inventories

Jarden notes the industry data remains supportive of Brambles’ FY25 guidance for operating leverage and has made no changes to its earnings estimate. The broker believes the key focus for investors is pricing/cost dynamics for Lumber.

Overweight rating and $17.90 target remains unchanged.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $19.10 Difference: minus $1.2 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.08, suggesting downside of -1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 84.61 cents and EPS of 93.75 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.37.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 99.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 91.92 cents and EPS of 101.96 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.73.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.0, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CKF    COLLINS FOODS LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $7.22

Jarden rates ((CKF)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes the global fast foods industry backdrop remains challenged and while some green shoots are emerging, the pace is slow.

The broker believes trends for Collins Foods don’t look any worse and some conservatism exists in guidance. The risk/reward is attractive but near-term catalysts are limited.

Jarden has lifted EPS forecasts for Collins Foods by 0.3% to reflect year-end store count and FX assumptions. 

The target price rises to $9.4 from $9.2. The Overweight rating stays. 

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $9.40 Current Price is $7.22 Difference: $2.18
If CKF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.75, suggesting upside of 35.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in May.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 37.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.9, implying annual growth of -21.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 55.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.9, implying annual growth of 36.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 29.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $33.83

Jarden rates ((CPU)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –

Jarden estimates that on a weighted average basis, the cash rate outlooks across Computershare’s portfolio have remained flat for FY25 but have lifted by 5-10bps from FY26 onwards, reflecting the ‘stronger for longer’ outlook. As such, the broker’s margin income
forecast for FY25 remains around US$745m, in line with guidance but FY26 estimate lifts by around 1%.

All in, the broker has raised the target price to $34.00 from $30.50 to reflect the USD rally, coupled with positive earnings revisions from
margin income upgrades.

The rating is lowered to Neutral from Overweight due to the recent share price rally.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $33.83 Difference: $0.17
If CPU meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.92, suggesting downside of -3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 95.40 cents and EPS of 196.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 201.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 102.50 cents and EPS of 211.54 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.7, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSC    CAPSTONE COPPER CORP.

Copper – Overnight Price: $9.95

Wilsons rates ((CSC)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons is encouraged by Capstone Copper’s improved operating performance for 4Q24 even though volume and cost were both slightly behind market estimates.

The broker made modest changes to estimates following lower actuals, with minimal change to future years, resulting in an -8% cut to 2024 EBITDA.

The $14.5 target price and Overweight rating remains.

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $14.50 Current Price is $9.95 Difference: $4.55
If CSC meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.83, suggesting upside of 30.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 195.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 23.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 44.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CVN    CARNARVON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.12

Jarden rates ((CVN)) as Overweight (2) –

In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.

Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.

No change to Carnarvon Energy’s target price of 21c and Overweight rating.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $0.21 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.09
If CVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 75% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 120.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $30.12

Jarden rates ((DMP)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden notes the global fast foods industry backdrop remains challenged and while some green shoots are emerging, the pace is slow.

The broker continues to see the risk of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises withdrawing guidance at its 1H25 result. Other near-term risks include a new CEO, uncertainty over operations in Japan/France and the likelihood of further restructuring.

The broker has lowered EPS forecasts by -2% to reflect year-end store count and forex assumptions. The target price drops to $40.0 from $42.0. The Overweight rating stays.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $40.00 Current Price is $30.12 Difference: $9.88
If DMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.41, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 146.00 cents and EPS of 140.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 136.8, implying annual growth of 28.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 189.00 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 160.3, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 120.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((FBU)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes recent data suggest residential consents have stabilised but remains reluctant to forecast an immediate recovery in volumes given a typical 12-18 month lag between interest rate cuts and flow-through impacts.

The broker forecasts a -12% decline in materials and distribution volume which is largely responsible for a -22% decline in earnings (EBIT) in FY25.

The target price is lowered to $2.65 from $2.75 reflecting modest earnings cuts and a lowering of the ASX200 market multiple to 12.7x from 13.1x. Neutral rating stays.

This report was published on January 19, 2025.

Target price is $2.65 Current Price is $2.58 Difference: $0.07
If FBU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.48, suggesting downside of -5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.73 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.73 cents and EPS of 21.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 46.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HGO    HILLGROVE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HGO)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity highlights Hillgrove Resources’ December quarter report showed copper, gold and silver production missed estimates and were all down quarter-on-quarter (q/q). Costs were higher q/q and also higher vs estimate.

The lower production and higher costs drove -57% decrease in cash to $3.3m, missing the broker’s $11.6m estimate.

Adjusting for the result and increased mining costs resulted in -28% decrease in FY25 EBITDA and -6% decline in FY26.

The Speculative Buy rating is unchanged but the target price falls to 8c.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $0.08 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.034
If HGO meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.60.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 1.53.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((HGO)) as Buy (1) –

Hillgrove Resources reported weaker-than-expected 4Q24 results, according to Moelis, due to lower overall feed grades.

Copper production of 2.6kt was below the broker’s 2.8kt estimate, and all-in-sustaining costs were higher than expected.

Cash fell short at $3.3m versus the $12.5m forecast. Management guided to FY25 copper production of 12-14kt at an all-in-sustaining cost of US$3.40-US$3.90/lb.

Moelis notes the stock fell -18% on the report and expresses “discomfort” with the cash position.

Target price slips to 7c. No change to Buy rating.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $0.07 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.024
If HGO meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 0.70.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 0.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $72.43

Moelis rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

Hub24 reported 2Q25 platform net flows of $5.5bn, in excess of the Moelis analyst’s forecast of $4.3bn, with funds under administration (FUA) reaching $98.9bn at quarter end including a lift from market movements of $1.8bn.

Both metrics were better than the broker’s expectations with the latter almost double the estimate. Total FUA reached $120.9bn.

Management indicated net flows and market movement trends are above the FY26 FUA assumptions. The EQT Holdings ((EQT)) migration saw another $1.5bn FUA in migration over the quarter.

Moelis lifted EPS forecasts by 4.6% and 6.8% in FY25/FY26 and market share is expected to grow to circa 13.8% in FY30 from 7.7% in Sept 2024.

Moelis lifts the target price to $77.08 from $67.92. A Hold rating is retained as the valuation remains “challenged”, the analyst states.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $77.08 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: $4.65
If HUB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $72.12, suggesting downside of -5.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 58.60 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.5, implying annual growth of 91.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 122.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons notes Hub24 once again delivered a strong update with 2Q25 underlying net fund flow (NFF) of $4.0bn maintaining
recent $1.3bn/month run-rates, an impressive feat given 1Q25 featured a $300-400m lumpy inflow.

The broker has upgraded NFF forecasts over the medium term, noting further potential upside risks should this momentum continue.

The broker also sees encouraging signals for the upcoming 1H25 result on February 18 from stabilising pooled cash and strong equities trading activity through 2Q25.

The broker increased multiple valuations to 55x P/E, leading to a higher target price of $80. Overweight rating is retained.

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $72.43 Difference: $7.57
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $72.12, suggesting downside of -5.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 113.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.5, implying annual growth of 91.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 68.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 148.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 140.1, implying annual growth of 25.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 54.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

INR    IONEER LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.21

Canaccord Genuity rates ((INR)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Ioneer announced it has closed an upsized US$996m loan from the US Department of Energy for the Rhyolite Ridge Project in the US, representing a 42% increase on its original US$700m commitment.

Canaccord Genuity sees the upsized loan as a testament to the quality of the project and Ioneer’s management team. The broker expects capex to increase by the same measure to -US$1.1bn which would fit into its previous -US$1.2bn capex estimate.

The broker expects the company to make a final investment decision in mid-2025.

No change to 40c target price and Speculative Buy rating.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $0.40 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.19
If INR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.52 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.80.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IRE    IRESS LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $9.65

Wilsons rates ((IRE)) as Market Weight (3) –

Management at Iress has pulled a key lever for near-term earnings growth momentum by announcing the sale of the Superannuation business for $60m, suggests Wilsons.

The sale results in earnings EBITDA forecast downgrades by the broker of between -1-2% from the 2H of 2025 onwards.

The Overweight rating and $11 target are maintained.

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $9.65 Difference: $1.35
If IRE meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.33, suggesting upside of 6.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 42.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 43.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.7, implying annual growth of 3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KAR    KAROON ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.42

Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –

In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.

Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.

The broker forecasts relatively flat group production in the December 2024 quarter for Karoon Energy but a 48% increase in sales revenue (broadly in line with consensus) driven by cargo inclusion timing.

The broker sees a risk of market disappointment in 2025 production guidance as Karoon may factor in a more conservative assumption after having downgraded guidance several times in 2024.

Target price reduces to $1.9 from $2.0 driven by lower-than-previously forecast 2025 production estimates and other updated assumptions. Rating remains at Buy.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.42 Difference: $0.48
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.16, suggesting upside of 55.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.57 cents and EPS of 33.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of -17.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MEK    MEEKA METALS LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.10

Petra Capital rates ((MEK)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes the latest grade control drill results from St Anne’s North open pit at Meeka Metals’ Murchison Gold Project showed wide, high-grade intersections.

The broker believes the results to date from the open pit grade control drill program solidify Meeka’s December 2024 expanded definitive feasibility study mine plan and indicate production upside from grade uplift and potentially from pit expansions.

Buy rating and target price of 14c stays,

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.10 Difference: $0.035
If MEK meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 52.50.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.76.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MYR    MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $0.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MYR)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccod Genuity believes the -3% miss at the gross profit level revealed in Myer Holdings’ trading update can be countered in future periods.

The broker notes Premier Investments’ ((PMV)) trading update showed lower earnings are driven more by operating cost pressures and weaker sales performance.

The broker believes the update is a step back in the narrative but it won’t derail the upcoming merger process (the shareholder vote is due January 23).

The target price is lowered to $1.15 from $1.25. Buy rating remains.

This report was published on January 14, 2025.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.26
If MYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.35.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.12.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $17.26

Canaccord Genuity rates ((NST)) as Buy (1) –

Northern Star Resources’ group sales of 410koz for the December quarter were broadly in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecasts but the cost of $2,128/oz was 7% higher.

FY25 sales and cost guidance have been maintained. Canaccord has incorporated the December quarter, increasing FY25 cost by 2% to $2,019/oz, assuming modest additional capex until FY27, and increasing cash tax payments in 2H25.

Target falls to $22.85, Buy retained.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $22.85 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: $5.59
If NST meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 111.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.6, implying annual growth of 93.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 175.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.6, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Goldman Sachs rates ((NST)) as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) –

Goldman Sachs has updated estimates for Australian gold mining coverage to reflect mark-to-market for December quarter actuals, exchange rate and gold forward curves, an increase in its long-term gold price estimate to US$2,300/oz, ongoing review of asset lives/costs, and company-specific updates.

The broker notes stocks on average are pricing in less than US$2,300/oz, with Northern Star standing out at less than US$2,100/oz. The broker is positive on the outlook for the company on expanded Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines operations and other asset growth. 

With the company going into a 2H production uplift and improving free cash flow generation, combined with other factors, the broker has upgraded Northern Star to Buy from Neutral. Target price lifts to $20.0 from $16.6.

This report was published on January 13, 2025.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: $2.74
If NST meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.10, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 57.60 cents and EPS of 136.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.34%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.6, implying annual growth of 93.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 158.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 138.6, implying annual growth of 28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OPT    OPTHEA LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OPT)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity has analysed Regeneron’s 4Q24 result to understand market dynamics and competitive tension for wet AMD patients (age-related macular degeneration) and its impact on Opthea.

No change to the recently initiated Buy rating and $1.25 target price.

The broker reminds Opthea is hosting US and Australian investor days on 28 January and 3/5 February respectively, to discuss commercial insights and readiness plans.

This report was published on January 14, 2025.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.365
If OPT meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.81.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.75.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.94

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.

Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.

The broker forecasts a strong LNG December quarter for Origin Energy based on high flows along the APLNG pipeline, estimating a 3% increase vs the quarter before.

For domestic gas volumes, the broker forecasts a -19% decline reflecting lower seasonal demand for domestic c gas vs LNG. The broker’s overall APLNG revenue estimate of $763m is 11% ahead of consensus.

The broker has incorporated recent movements in electricity prices into Origin’s models, leading to around 19c increase in valuation. This, and other adjustments, pushed the target price higher to $10.65 from $9.90.

The rating is lowered to Underweight from Neutral due to concerns around the Sinopec price review impact and limited potential for higher-than-forecast dividends given capex plans.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $10.65 Current Price is $10.94 Difference: minus $0.29 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.93, suggesting downside of -1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 91.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.7, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 76.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 73.2, implying annual growth of -11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV    PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear – Overnight Price: $27.35

Petra Capital rates ((PMV)) as Hold (3) –

Petra Capital notes Premier Investments’ trading update on January 23 implied a weaker-than-expected 1H25 EBIT margin of 18.9% at mid-point, below its 22.7% estimate and down -500bps vs 1H24.

The broker has lowered FY25 and FY26 retail EBIT forecasts by -14.4% and -11.1% respectively. Together with a lower multiple for
Smiggle, given the brand’s continued underperformance, resulted in a decline in target price to $29.00 from $33.75.

Rating remains at Hold.

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.35 Difference: $1.65
If PMV meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.10, suggesting upside of 18.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 119.30 cents and EPS of 149.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.26.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.1, implying annual growth of -12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 124.10 cents and EPS of 161.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 156.5, implying annual growth of 10.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI    PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $24.93

Wilsons rates ((PNI)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons made a formal changeover of analyst coverage of Pinnacle Investment to Cameron Halkett.

The broker considers investment in Pacific Asset Management (PAM) as a transformational affiliate for Pinnacle Investment from increased international presence and opportunity to leverage its technology to challenge the Australian asset consultancies.

The broker reckons the new funds under management (FUM) and revenue growth streams for Pinnacle are not captured in the current share price. Additionally, the broker notes PAM’s FUM is continuing to surge and has upgraded EPS estimates by 12-18% driven by its deeper understanding of the PAM affiliate and opportunity, coupled with higher 1H performance fee assumptions.

In the case of the VSS Capital Partners investment, the broker notes the transaction may appear dilutive, but over the medium and longer term its value will increase as VSS scales with new FUM raisings and delivers strong returns.

The target price is lifted to $26.5 from $20.5. Overweight rating stays.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $24.93 Difference: $1.57
If PNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $25.34, suggesting upside of 0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 61.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.33%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.80.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.4, implying annual growth of 27.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 72.60 cents and EPS of 74.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.7, implying annual growth of 27.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QOR    QORIA LIMITED

Software & Services – Overnight Price: $0.46

Wilsons rates ((QOR)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons highlights Qoria produced strong annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth in 2Q25, mainly from a $7m forex benefit. Excluding that, the company still added net ARR of $5m in the quarter vs Wilsons’ expectation of $4.6m.

The broker sees Qoria well placed heading into the 2H driven by its record sales pipeline of around $32m vs $17m in the previous corresponding period.

The price target increases to 57c from 55c driven mainly by a 4% FY25 revenue forecast increase. Overweight rating stays.

This report was published on January 22, 2025.

Target price is $0.57 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.11
If QOR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.56.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 92.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REH    REECE LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $23.53

Goldman Sachs rates ((REH)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs notes Reece faces a challenging macro backdrop, especially in the US where for the first time in five years those states where the company operates are underperforming the broader economy.

The broker made modest changes to forecast earnings (EBIT) as a stronger USD offsets lower constant forex forecasts. Goldman Sachs forecasts 1H25 earnings of $310m versus Reece’s guidance of $300-330m and consensus of $312m.

The target price is cut to $22.80 from $23.10 and the Sell rating is unchanged.

This report was published on January 19, 2025.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $23.53 Difference: minus $0.73 (current price is over target).
If REH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.93, suggesting downside of -8.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.7, implying annual growth of -8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 69.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.4, implying annual growth of 14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.58

Goldman Sachs rates ((S32)) as Buy (1) –

South32’s December quarter operational performance exceeded expectations held by Goldman Sachs, with aluminium, alumina, copper, and manganese production all beating forecasts.

Production guidance for 2025 was maintained for all assets except Mozal Aluminium in Mozambique.

Despite strong production, realised pricing for the first half of 2025 was lower-than-expected due to pricing lags and timing issues, explains the analyst, while unit costs were elevated from higher consumable costs and inventory adjustments.

The broker expects a strong 2H especially with the restart of production from Australian manganese in the June quarter.

Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating and a $4.00 target, citing strong free cash flow and an attractive valuation.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.58 Difference: $0.42
If S32 meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.13, suggesting upside of 15.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.46 cents and EPS of 32.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 25.42 cents and EPS of 47.94 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.4, implying annual growth of 27.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STO    SANTOS LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.13

Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –

In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.

Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.

The broker forecasts flat December quarter production for Santos of 21.6m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), marginally higher than 21.5mmboe consensus. The forecast for sales volume is 23.0mmboe, slightly lower than consensus at 23.1mmboe.

The broker remains positive on the company with a view the share price will appreciate as the market focuses on the 2026 free cash flow story in 2H25.

No change to Overweight rating and $7.85 target price.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $7.85 Current Price is $7.13 Difference: $0.72
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.02, suggesting upside of 13.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 34.39 cents and EPS of 58.74 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 65.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.76 cents and EPS of 60.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.2, implying annual growth of 0.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VUL    VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $5.60

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VUL)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Vulcan Energy Resources announced lithium hydroxide production from its downstream Central Lithium Electrolysis Plant which met product purity specifications and was deemed as battery quality. Canaccord Genuity views this as a significant de-risking event for current operations.

The broker notes Vulcan has signed EUR879m conditional debt commitment letter from Export Finance Australia and a group of seven commercial banks.

The broker expects the company to attract investment from a strategic partner before the end of 2025 and has modelled EUR400m capital raise at a premium of $6.5/share.

After modelling for the capital raising, updated capex and funding requirements, and risking to 70% from 55%, the target price lifts to $11.75 from $11.50. Speculative Buy retained.

This report was published on January 21, 2025.

Target price is $11.75 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $6.15
If VUL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.00.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 80.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $25.73

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

In a note looking ahead to 2025 and previewing December quarterly reports, Jarden has retained Brent oil price forecast of US$80/bbl for 1H25 but lowered 2H25 and 2026 forecast to US$75/bbl from US$80. For LNG, the broker forecasts Asian spot LNG to average US$13/mmbtu in 2025 and US$12 in 2026.

Jarden forecasts AUD/USD to average 0.640 in 2025, down from 0.675 previously, and raised interest rate assumption.

For Woodside Energy, the broker forecasts December quarter production of 51.5m barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), -3% lower than September quarter but marginally higher than 51.1 mmboe consensus.

The forecast for sales volume is 54.1mmboe, -3% below the prior quarter but 2% above consensus.

Jarden’s sensitivity analysis for LNG spot price concludes Woodside is more sensitive than Santos ((STO) to a change in spot price assumption from an earnings and dividend perspective.

A combination of lower AUD and higher near-term spot LNG prices, and expected positive news flow around Woodside Louisiana sell-downs, has led to an increase in target price to $27.

The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral.

This report was published on January 20, 2025.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $25.73 Difference: $1.27
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.57, suggesting upside of 9.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 197.84 cents and EPS of 247.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 265.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 203.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 140.01 cents and EPS of 178.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.6, implying annual growth of -31.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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