Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 06, 2025

This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

29M   AGN   ANG   ARB   BGL   BPT   CSL   DRR   FPH   IMB   PBH   PDI   PEN   PER   PLS   PME   PNI (2)   PPT   PXA   SFR   STK   SUN   SYL   SYR   TWE   VSL   WGX (2)   WOW  

29M    29METALS LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $0.20

Canaccord Genuity rates ((29M)) as Sell (5) –

Canaccord notes 29Metals production at Golden Grove was in line with its forecast but missed on costs. Costs of US$3.32/lb were down -3% quarter on quarter but missed the broker’s estimate of US$0.70/lb, with the company citing higher mining costs and capex as reasons.

The broker views Golden Grove’s free cash flow as a positive but has concerns over the company’s balance sheet when it looks at capital requirements for Golden Grove and business maintenance costs.

The broker points to negative cash flow from Capricorn Copper, stamp duty payments, corporate costs and debt service as reasons the business is still not breaking even as a steady state business.

Target price drops to 16c from 21c. Sell rating maintained.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $0.16 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: minus $0.045 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 38.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 102.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -8.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 512.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -0.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AGN    ARGENICA THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.72

Petra Capital rates ((AGN)) as Buy (1) –

New data for Argenica Therapeutics’ drug ARG-007 in a larger rat model for traumatic brain Injury (TBI) re-affirms its neuroprotective profile and supports its further development for this indication, Petra Capital highlights.

The broker notes data from a larger ferret study is expected in 2Q25 and, if positive, could support progressing the drug into a Phase 2 TBI trial.

The analyst assigns no value to expanded indications for ARG-007 beyond stroke and therefore sees significant upside optionalist on clinical advancement of TBI (no approved treatments, US$18.6bn market).

Target price $1.2 and Buy rating.

This report was published on February 5, 2025.

Target price is $1.20 Current Price is $0.72 Difference: $0.48
If AGN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 12.86.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.73.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANG    AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.51

Petra Capital rates ((ANG)) as Buy (1) –

Ahead of the 1H25 result on February 25, Petra Capital expects Austin Engineering to report revenue of $158m, up 10% year on year, and underlying net profit of $14.6m, down -1%.

The broker believes operating momentum is positively strong and likely shielded from a potential trade war in North America. It remains confident the company will achieve the higher 62% weighting to underlying EBIT in 2H to reach FY25 guidance of $50m.

Buy rating and 60c target price maintained.

This report was published on February 5, 2025.

Target price is $0.60 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.095
If ANG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 2.50 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.42.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.50 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.32.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $36.87

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARB)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity notes a declining rate of sales for ARB Corp’s top eleven vehicles over 2H24. The broker highlights a lag before the company’s revenue is affected and anticipates this will transpire in 2H25.

The analyst also points to the launch of BYD Shark 6 in October 2024 and the potential for an adverse effect on revenue prospects for ARB in FY25.

In FY24, the company reported an equal all-time gross margin, the broker states, which is unlikely to be replicated in FY25 with higher freight costs and currency impacts.

Canaccord Genuity lowers EPS forecasts by -5.2% and -6.4% in FY25-FY27.

No change to Hold rating. Target price slips to $34.70 from $38.30.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $34.70 Current Price is $36.87 Difference: minus $2.17 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $43.07, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 70.00 cents and EPS of 126.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 132.4, implying annual growth of 6.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 133.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.64.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 150.1, implying annual growth of 13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BGL    BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.25

Jarden rates ((BGL)) as Initiation of coverage with Underweight (4) –

Jarden initiates coverage of Bellevue Gold with an Underweight rating and a $1.0 target price.

The broker’s assessment of the company incorporates the organic and inorganic appeal of gold mining assets but only at a price where resource conversion and associated risks, and blue sky potential (exploration), are not fully captured in the prevailing enterprise value.

The analyst highlights the 1.1moz midpoint production guided under the 5-yr plan will require -$475m in underground development capex. At the very least, the broker questions any expectations around the nominal $300-600m of exploration value ascribed by consensus.

The broker believes the current share price is factoring in material blue sky potential and consensus gold price assumptions are, on average, US$130-170/oz higher than for other ASX-listed names like Evolution Mining ((EVN)) and Newmont Corp ((NEM)).

The broker’s target price and DCF-based valuation assume NPV of 8.7%, US$2,000 gold price and US$0.70 forex long term. The key risks lay with material gold price appreciation and major new exploration discovery.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: minus $0.255 (current price is over target).
If BGL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.61, suggesting upside of 27.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.1, implying annual growth of 39.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.30.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.2, implying annual growth of 78.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BPT    BEACH ENERGY LIMITED

Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.51

Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden updated Beach Energy’s forecasts prior to the release of the 1H25 result on February 6. The key adjustments are in cash flow and earnings derived from the early LNG cargoes sold from Waitsia in FY25 prior to the formal start-up of the project.

The broker forecasts the start of a material increase in cash-flow generation, estimating an average free cash flow (FCF) yield of 20.3% over FY25-27. The imminent large increase in FCF paves the way for dividend payments, investment expenditure and debt reduction, the broker estimates.

The net impact is a downgrade to FY25 and FY26 EPS of -9.5% and -9.0% respectively, primarily due to factoring in the timing of gas swap repayments.

Target price of $1.42 and Neutral rating are unchanged.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $1.42 Current Price is $1.51 Difference: minus $0.095 (current price is over target).
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 7.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 23.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $270.34

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden observes the 2024-25 Northern Hemisphere winter continued to see elevated flu cases which if prolonged could see distributors re-order additional vaccines. The broker points to data released by the US Centre of Disease Control for the week ending January 25 that showed flu transmissions continue to track slightly ahead of the strong 2019-20 season

The broker sees CSL as well positioned to receive the lion’s share of any secondary orders given the speed at which it can manufacture vaccines. The broker also expects CSL to benefit from any further Avian flu-related contracts.

The analyst believes it would present less downside risk for vaccine manufacturers if US Senators did not confirm Robert F Kennedy Jr’s appointment to health secretary. The vote took place last night (after this report), paving the way for the full Senate to vote to confirm him as soon as this week.

Overweight rating and $329.62 target price unchanged.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $329.62 Current Price is $270.34 Difference: $59.28
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $333.79, suggesting upside of 22.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 457.46 cents and EPS of 927.11 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1077.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 482.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 463.25 cents and EPS of 1152.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1253.0, implying annual growth of 16.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 546.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.12

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Buy (1) –

Deterra Royalties’ total portfolio revenue of $59.3m for the December quarter was up 11.7% quarter on quarter and 3% above Goldman Sachs’ forecast due to strong performance from the Trident gold royalties.

The broker forecasts a step up in Mining Area C’s production to 135Mt in FY25 from its current demonstrated capacity of 25Mt set in FY24, thus giving the company a capacity payment.

The analyst raised FY25 EBITDA estimate by 5% but lowered FY26 by -1%. Target price $4.7. Rating retained at Buy.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.12 Difference: $0.58
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.38, suggesting upside of 6.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 28.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.12%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.4, implying annual growth of 10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 23.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.10 cents and EPS of 25.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.4, implying annual growth of -9.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $31.08

Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden notes US President Trump’s implementation via executive order of an additional 25% tariff on products imported from Mexico and Canada and 10% on goods from China, effective February 4.

The broker highlights North America comprises 43% of group revenue for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Mexico manufactures 45% of group volumes. 

The broker’s back-of-envelope sensitivity calculation is for an illustrative tariff cost in FY26 of -NZ$113m, against its FY26 standing estimate of NZ$447m net profit.

If the tariffs are implemented in the current form, the broker expects the company to take some action over time to offset any impact on profitability.

Price increases, some forex benefit and volume rebalancing would somewhat shallow any impact but it would likely still take longer to achieve target gross margin of 65% and EBIT of 30%, the broker suggests.

Target price of NZ$30.10 and Underweight rating retained.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Current Price is $31.08. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 38.86 cents and EPS of 58.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 55.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 42.06 cents and EPS of 69.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.35%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.1, implying annual growth of 20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMB    INTELLIGENT MONITORING GROUP LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.56

Moelis rates ((IMB)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis notes Intelligent Monitoring Group’s December quarter result was strong, showing material improvements quarter on quarter in underlying earnings and cash flow. Upside surprise came from the early success of video guarding, with several large-scale contracts signed in December through its Signature Guarding brand.

The company announced a new secured term debt facility with NAB of $122.5m which will result in a material interest cost saving to a rate of around 7% from the current 15%. The new debt facility is expected to be implemented by the end of March, and the broker notes most of the interest cost savings will be in FY26 and beyond.

The broker views the debt refinancing as a large strategic milestone for the company, with the upsized facility helping facilitate further M&A and could provide upside to its estimates.

Buy rating and 88c target price.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $0.88 Current Price is $0.56 Difference: $0.32
If IMB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.94.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.62.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PBH    POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.80

Jarden rates ((PBH)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

PointsBet’s 2Q25 results disappointed Jarden, with a total net win of $135m coming in below the broker’s and consensus estimates.

The broker notes weaker quarterly top-line performance resulted from seemingly underwhelming VIP cohorts across both regions, and unfavourable results in Canada.

The company downgraded its FY25 EBITDA guidance range to $11-14m (from $11-16m), and FY25 revenue guidance to $260-270m from $280-290m.

Target price cut to $0.95 from $1.00, and rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

This report was published on February 1, 2025.

Target price is $0.95 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.15
If PBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 38.10.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.05.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PDI    PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.33

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PDI)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Predictive Discovery received binding commitments from the Lundin Family and Zijin Mining to raise $69.2m by way of a strategic private placement at $0.265. The price represents no discount to the company’s last traded price of $0.265.

The broker had previously noted the Bankan Gold Project as having a large M&A appeal, expecting potential takeovers to become competitive in 2025.

Target price of 52c and Speculative Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.33 Difference: $0.19
If PDI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 58% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEN    PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $1.19

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PEN)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Peninsula Energy announced a delay in first U308 production at the Lance Project to the June quarter from early March flagged before. The revised timeline is in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecast.

The company flagged a downgrade in FY25 production guidance at the March quarter update. The broker has lowered FY25 production estimate to 300Klbs from 500Klbs, and FY26 to 900Klbs from 1,100Klbs, and raised cash cost estimates slightly.

Target price cut to $2.5 from $3.2. Speculative Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $1.19 Difference: $1.31
If PEN meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 110% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of minus 1.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 86.73.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 7.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.01.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PER    PERCHERON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.01

Wilsons – Cessation of coverage

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PLS    PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((PLS)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs has reinstated Pilbara Minerals with a Neutral rating and target price of $2.10 following the completion of its acquisition of Latin Resources and flagship Salinas project (renamed Colina).

The broker has now included the Colina project in its estimates, forecasting the Colina development and Pilgangoora expansion will drive Pilbara’s production to 2.1Mtpa spodumene (1.85Mtpa SC6) at a group combined unit cost of US$600/t SC6.

The analyst notes capex and execution risk remain across both projects, where uncertain project timing or a preference for remaining net cash and preserving balance sheet strength may defer value realisation.

This report was published on February 5, 2025.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $2.33 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If PLS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.67, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -90.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 288.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.4, implying annual growth of 575.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $288.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((PME)) as Buy (1) –

Ahead of Pro Medicus’ 1H25 result on February 14, Goldman Sachs lifts FY26 EBITDA forecast by 2% reflecting recent contract wins. The broker doesn’t expect the company to produce guidance but expects positive commentary about the pipeline remaining strong.

The broker forecasts 1H25 EBITDA of $76m at a 76.9% margin vs consensus of $75m. Target price rises to $310. Buy rating maintained.

The analyst believes investors will award growth certainty in 2025 with the company screening at the top of its TMET coverage benchmark given over 95% recurring revenues, contracted growth averaging 7-plus years and a strong outlook.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $288.90 Difference: $21.1
If PME meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $210.92, suggesting downside of -27.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 107.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 270.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.6, implying annual growth of 35.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 268.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 75.00 cents and EPS of 147.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 196.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 155.1, implying annual growth of 44.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 72.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 186.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNI    PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $26.04

Jarden rates ((PNI)) as Neutral (3) –

Pinnacle Investment’s 1H25 result was well ahead of Jarden and consensus EPS forecasts, but the broker believes the main components contributing to the beat were somewhat lacking in quality.

This included the majority of materially stronger performance coming from one affiliate and fair value gains on assets.

On the positive side, the broker notes costs within the affiliates were managed well and stronger December quarter flows revealed some Australian institutional inflows and initial inflows into the Life Cycle.

The broker has upgraded FY25 EPS estimates by 15.8% and FY26 by 2.2%, leading to a rise in target price to $24.2.

Neutral rating remains.

This report was published on February 5, 2025.

Target price is $24.20 Current Price is $26.04 Difference: minus $1.84 (current price is over target).
If PNI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting upside of 4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.90 cents and EPS of 63.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 46.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 59.40 cents and EPS of 67.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.7, implying annual growth of 16.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((PNI)) as Overweight (1) –

In its initial analysis of Pinnacle Investment’s 1H25 result, Wilsons highlights the 12% gross performance fee beat was partly offset by a higher-than-expected tax charge, leading to a 4% beat to underlying EPS.

Base fees appeared lower year on year, but it is a function of timing from VSS Capital and Pacific Asset Management contributions, the broker notes. Spending on Horizon 2 of -$4.5m was consistent with the broker’s estimate.

Earnings forecasts are under review but the broker notes in the absence of material increases to its cost or tax assumptions, there will be small upgrades to EPS brought on by the small 1H beat.

Overweight rating and $26.5 target price.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $26.04 Difference: $0.46
If PNI meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.02, suggesting upside of 4.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 61.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 42.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.9, implying annual growth of 46.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 38.6.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 72.60 cents and EPS of 74.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.7, implying annual growth of 16.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPT    PERPETUAL LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $21.70

Jarden rates ((PPT)) as Overweight (2) –

Perpetual Ltd’s funds under management for asset management business were 3% ahead of Jarden’s forecast and performance fees were also higher but this was somewhat offset by higher cost growth. 

The broker highlights it continues to see a reduced probability of the KKR deal succeeding, noting Perpetual provided a minimal update on the proposed acquisition of Corporate Trust/Wealth.

The broker sees growing balance sheet and dividend concerns should the deal not succeed, particularly if transaction costs keep mounting.

Jarden has lifted FY25 and FY26 EPS forecasts by 8% and 4% respectively reflecting higher December FUM balances. Overweight rating remains and target price is $24.05.

This report was published on February 1, 2025.

Target price is $24.05 Current Price is $21.70 Difference: $2.35
If PPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $23.41, suggesting upside of 6.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 136.90 cents and EPS of 179.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 181.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 124.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 140.10 cents and EPS of 183.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 185.6, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PXA    PEXA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $12.84

Jarden rates ((PXA)) as Neutral (3) –

Pexa Group’s 1H25 total weighted average volume for NSW and Queensland was up 3.0%, prompting Jarden to upgrade its 1H25 total billable items forecast to a 2.3% rise from -0.2% previously.

The broker lifts FY25 and FY25 EPS estimates by 2.0% and 1.4% respectively, reflecting slightly stronger 1H25 settlements volumes, partly offset by lowering Optima volume growth. Target price rises to $15.35. 

Neutral rating is retained, given a more moderate Pexa exchange growth estimate of 8% in FY25 while the broker awaits key UK catalysts to assess the UK’s viability.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $15.35 Current Price is $12.84 Difference: $2.51
If PXA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.08, suggesting upside of 29.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.2.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 30.84 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.0, implying annual growth of 11.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SFR    SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED

Copper – Overnight Price: $10.06

Goldman Sachs rates ((SFR)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs notes Sandfire Resources reported a broadly in-line 2Q25 result, with copper production slightly below its estimate and zinc production slightly above. Unit costs at both Motheo and Matsa were -10% below the broker’s estimate.

The broker highlights operating performance at both Motheo and Matsa continues to be strong and improving.

The analyst has lifted FY25 and FY26 EBITDA forecasts by 10% after incorporating the quarterly results and making modest changes to forecast production, operating costs, and smelter treatment charges.

Target price $10.4. Neutral rating maintained. 

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $10.06 Difference: $0.34
If SFR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.28, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.38 cents and EPS of 42.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 37.51 cents and EPS of 93.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.7, implying annual growth of 64.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STK    STRICKLAND METALS LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.07

Canaccord Genuity rates ((STK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

More strong gold-dominant results from Strickland Metals at its 100%-owned Rogozna Project in Serbia, notes Canaccord Genuity. This time it is from the Gradina prospect where a maiden resource is due in 2H25 (previous one was from the Shanac deposit). 

The broker reminds the company is also targeting maiden resource at Medenovac in late February.

Target price of 17c and Speculative Buy rating unchanged.

This report was published on February 5, 2025.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.07 Difference: $0.098
If STK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 136% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN    SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $19.97

Goldman Sachs rates ((SUN)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs updated its model for Suncorp Group to reflect the completion of the sale of its NZ Life business effective January 31.

The broker reminds the company is expected to use the NZ Life sale proceeds to seed its perpetual buyback facility and is also entering into a transitional services agreement for two years post-completion.

The analyst has made earnings changes which are partially offset by interest income and small upgrades to investment income in outer years. No allowance has been made for buyback, despite the broker seeing it as very likely.

Buy rating and $20.5 target price unchanged.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $20.50 Current Price is $19.97 Difference: $0.53
If SUN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.18, suggesting downside of -0.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 103.7, implying annual growth of 9.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 90.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 114.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.1, implying annual growth of 12.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 80.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYL    SYMAL GROUP LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $1.91

Jarden rates ((SYL)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Jarden initiates coverage of Symal Group with a Buy recommendation and target price of $2.15.

The broker notes construction works still form the majority of the company’s EBITDA base, which it expects to strengthen over time with new contract wins. 

The broker sees the company as having three distinct advantages that allow it to generate EBITDA and EBIT margins 150-200bps over comparable ASX-listed peers.

Advantages include vertical integration and materials ownership, modest capital investment requirement and scope to drive margin from variations and scope shifts on performance works.

The company will report its maiden ASX-listed 1H25 result on February 24 where the broker expects earnings skew to be largely consistent with historical levels at 40% in 1H, and forecasts underlying 1H EBITDA of $41m.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $2.15 Current Price is $1.91 Difference: $0.24
If SYL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 15.30 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.05.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.60 cents and EPS of 21.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.97.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR    SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.23

Jarden rates ((SYR)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden notes no production occurred at Syrah Resources’ Balama mine in the December quarter due to protests, resulting in the depletion of natural graphite inventory.

The broker understands a definitive restart timeline cannot be provided by the company, and is forecasting site operations will resume in the March quarter. 

Once the company regains site access, the broker anticipates production restart to take four weeks, leading to a delay in production to early June quarter from the March quarter.

The broker’s target price is a range of 29-52c, with the base case of 29c assuming the convertible notes, maturing in 2028, are redeemed and $260m of fresh equity is raised at $0.30/share to fund the redemption.

Neutral rating is unchanged. 

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $0.29 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.055
If SYR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.44, suggesting upside of 83.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -16.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.25 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -4.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TWE    TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $10.65

Goldman Sachs rates ((TWE)) as Buy (1) –

Ahead of Treasury Wines’ 1H25 result on February 13, Goldman Sachs has provided latest data tracking update for China/US wine industry relevant to the company.

In case of China spirits, overall retail demand may decline by -10~15% lapping a high base from 2024 Lunar New Year but the trend stabilised, the broker notes. 

China wine import value from Australia in Nov/Dec was strong, with total July-Dec imports run-rate at 91% of 2019 value and 42% of 2019 volume, implying over 2x import price/unit. 

The broker interprets this as strong retail demand for Bin407 but potentially weaker for Bin389. For the latest 4 weeks US Nielsen data suggest the company’s ex-Daou sales were down -8% vs market -2%.

Buy rating and $13 target price unchanged.

This report was published on February 5, 2025.

Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.65 Difference: $2.35
If TWE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $13.63, suggesting upside of 28.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.1, implying annual growth of 381.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 41.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 49.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.2, implying annual growth of 16.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VSL    VULCAN STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $6.99

Jarden rates ((VSL)) as Neutral (3) –

Ahead of Vulcan Steel’s 1H25 result on February 11, Jarden has reduced the FY25 EBITDA forecast to NZ$107m from NZ$125m. The reduced forecast incorporates a pushback in the timing of market recovery to the back end of 2H25 from 2Q25 expected before.

The broker notes Vulcan’s balance sheet is under a little pressure but based on its FY26 estimates, the company should not breach covenants. Vulcan had agreed with its lenders to provide a relaxation of existing banking covenant thresholds through to the
end of FY25.

Target price cut to NZ$8.00 from NZ$8.05 while Neutral rating remains.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Current Price is $6.99. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.77 cents and EPS of 9.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 73.52.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.05 cents and EPS of 32.09 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.78.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.42

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Westgold Resources revised its FY25 guidance lower to 330-350koz from previously flagged 400-420koz, and raised cost guidance to 2,400-2,600/oz from $2,000-2,300/oz. The company lowered FY25 growth capex guidance to -$200m from -$235m.

Canaccord Genuity lowered its FY25 production forecast to 341koz, down -14% and raised the cost estimate by 12% to $2,553/oz. The broker is forecasting 2H25 free cash flow of $71m from $188m estimated before.

For FY26, the broker cut the production forecast by -10% to 448koz and increased the cost estimate by 7% to $2,496/oz.  The analyst is forecasting FY26 growth capex of -$250m, up from FY25 guidance of -$200m.

Target price decreases to $4.25 from $4.70. Buy rating is retained.

This report was published on February 3, 2025.

Target price is $4.25 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $1.83
If WGX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.64.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.63.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Westgold Resources has revised its FY25 mid-point production guidance lower to 340koz (previous 410koz) with mid-point cost guidance raised to $2,500/oz from $2,150/oz before.

While the guidance revision is a negative, Petral Capital highlights Westgold’s guided run rate of 400koz per annum in the June quarter will position the company as one of the largest gold producers on the ASX.

The company’s 100% unhedged ounces give it significant leverage to a buoyant gold price environment, the broker suggests.

Target price lowered to $3.32 on downward revision to FY25 production forecast and rise in cost estimate. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 4, 2025.

Target price is $3.32 Current Price is $2.42 Difference: $0.9
If WGX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 39.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.19.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WOW    WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $29.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((WOW)) as Buy (1) –

Woolworths Group announced changes to its food leadership and organisational structure to promote a greater focus on areas where its customers are most impacted. 

Goldman Sachs views the changes as a positive step providing certainty around the leadership team.

In particular, the broker believes Annette Karantoni’s increased management responsibilities to include Greenstock and Own Brand will likely enable increased organisational/operational efficiency to be delivered in the Australian foods business.

The company could use Sally Copland’s (appointed as NZ managing director) extensive omni-channel experience and time in Australia to drive transformation initiatives in NZ, the broker notes.

Target price $36.1. Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 6, 2025.

Target price is $36.10 Current Price is $29.57 Difference: $6.53
If WOW meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $32.14, suggesting upside of 8.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 96.00 cents and EPS of 121.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.6, implying annual growth of 1330.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 93.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 110.00 cents and EPS of 146.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 141.0, implying annual growth of 11.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 103.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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