Weekly Reports | Jun 13 2025
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
In the small and mid-cap REIT arena, one of the broker's highest conviction stocks is HomeCo Daily Needs REIT.
The broker's FY25 FFO forecast is in line with the company's guidance, and for FY26, the analyst expects initial guidance for around 2% growth.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.38.
NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
In the small and mid-cap REIT space, National Storage REIT is among the broker's highest conviction stocks. The analyst's FY26 pre-tax operating EPS growth is 5.5% compared with 5.1% consensus.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target lifted to $2.80 from $2.75.
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ADRIATIC METALS PLC ((ADT)) Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity lowers its recommendation on Adriatic Metals to Hold from Speculative Buy, while raising the target price to $5.50 from $4.55, following a 40% rally in the share price. The uplift was driven by confirmed M&A interest from Dundee Precious Metals.
The broker views Dundee as a logical suitor given its nearby European operations, but notes there is no guarantee a formal offer will eventuate.
Adriatics ramp-up at the Vares silver project is progressing, note the analysts, with commercial production expected by the June quarter. FY25 earnings (EBITDA) are forecast at US$78.8m, rising to US$165.5m in FY26.
Canaccord removes prior risk discounts in light of strategic interest and expects positive free cash flow from 2025 onward,. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are expected to fall to US$15.85/oz and US$14.14/oz in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
The broker's FY25 operating EPS forecast for Charter Hall Retail REIT is for a -7% y/y decline, which is in line with guidance. For FY26, the broker expects the REIT to guide to a 2-3% EPS growth.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Target lifted to $4.30 from 3.70.
DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden revisited the state of the global quick service restaurant market, noting it remains challenging and consumers are trading down mainly in the US and less so in Australia/NZ.
In April, the trend was solid in Australia/NZ with takeaway sales beating grocery growth, but competition increased. In Europe, macro and geopolitical uncertainties continue to impact the sector, and in Japan, the trend softened in April after an improvement in 1Q.
The broker's preference in the sector is Collins Foods ((CKF)), Guzman Y Gomez ((GYG)) and Domino's Pizza Enterprises; in that order.
The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -1.6% and FY26 by -4.6%, driven by Asia and Europe. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target trimmed to $37 from $39.
DEXUS ((DXS)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
The broker's forecast for Dexus' FY25 adjusted FFO is in line with guidance, but for FY26, the analyst is forecasting flat AFFO vs consensus for 0.3% y/y growth.
Broader office sector recovery would be a catalyst for cash earnings growth, the broker highlights, but challenges are emerging in funds management.
Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral. Target trimmed to $7.10 from $7.50.
GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED ((GDG)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Petra Capital reviews its investment case for Generation Development after taking into account prospective Division 296 changes to superannuation and the recent Blackrock investment in the group's share register.
Blackrock brings to the table proven US annuities experience and risk management systems. The tie-up is expected to strengthen Generation Development's annuities position in the market.
Working to Generation Development's advantage, the broker now sees potential for investment advisers to pitch Investment Bonds as an alternative asset class to superannuation.
The analyst highlights the company has gradually broadened from a long-tail defensive life insurance style business to a managed accounts/equities operation.
The target rises to $5.65 from $5.58 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.
MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
The broker's FY25 EPS forecast for Mirvac Group is at the top end of the guidance, and for FY26 the analyst is forecasting FFO growth of 8% on residential volume and margin recovery. Wage and general cost inflation pressures are expected to weigh.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Target lifted to $2.50 from $2.35.
ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity lowers its target price for Ora Banda Mining to $1.20 from $1.25 and downgrades to Hold from Speculative Buy following a reduction in FY25 production guidance to 95koz at a cost (AISC) of $2,606/oz.
The revisions reflect plant upgrade downtime and slower ramp-up, explains the broker, with June quarter production expected to be 24.5koz and costs (AISC) of circa $3,100/oz, though commissioning is now complete.
The broker notes mine performance remains solid and anticipates FY26 output rising to 150koz with costs (AISC) falling to around $1,932/oz, supported by contributions from Riverina and Sand King.
REGION GROUP ((RGN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
The broker's FY25 FFO forecast is in line with guidance for Region Group. For FY26, the broker expects initial FFO guidance for around 3% growth as the earnings profile is expected to improve from capital recycling and additional hedging.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Target lifted to $2.60 from $2.40.
STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, with most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
The broker is optimistic about the residential sector but believes Stockland may disappoint with conservative guidance at the FY25 results. The analyst is forecasting 10% FFO growth in FY26, noting anything above 7-8% growth guidance would be a positive.
Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy. Target rises to $6.35 from $5.95.
WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED ((WPR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Ahead of the FY25 reporting season (1H25 for Waypoint REIT) in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.
Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.
The broker's FY25 dividend forecast for Waypoint REIT is in line with the guidance. Looking ahead, the analyst sees upside risks with Viva Energy's ((VEA)) OTR conversion in FY26.
Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target lifted to $2.85 from $2.70.
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