The Monday Report – 30 March 2026

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This story features PLS GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLS
The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US markets traded lower (again) on Friday with the S&P500 on track for its worst monthly performance since 2022.

The ASX200 finished up last week, but futures are indicating a weak start to a shortened week. 

Additional negative Middle East news flow over the weekend could underpin more risk-off selling than futures are currently indicating.

Good Morning,

SPI futures are suggesting a weak start to the shortened week on Monday as Iran proxy the Houthis have joined the war and the US is sending more troops to the region, indicating further escalation.

Not the news financial markets are waiting for.

Today’s also the day when a swathe of AREITs goes ex-dividend.

Tony Sycamore, IG, extract

The ASX200 finished 87 points higher last week at 8516, snapping a three-week losing streak.

However, with just two sessions left in March, the index is still down -7.42% for the month and -2.27% for the first quarter, reflecting the ongoing disruption from the Middle East conflict, sharply higher energy prices, and the impact of back-to-back RBA rate hikes.

The best performing sectors last week were Materials (up 4.57%), Utilities (up 3.36%), Consumer Discretionary (up 1.84%), and Health Care up (up 1.74%). In contrast, the IT (down -4.77%), Real Estate (off -0.81%), Financial (-0.77%) and Telco (-0.39%) sectors finished the week lower. 

At the individual stock level, standout performances came from Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)), up 21.75%, Liontown ((LTR)), up  21.31%, Temple & Webster ((TPW)), up 11.44%, and Hansen Technologies ((HSN)), up 10.18%.  

On the other side, Amplitude Energy ((AEL)) fell  -41.76%, NextDC ((NXT)) down -11.04%, 5G Networks ((5GN)) down-10.94%, and WiseTech Global ((WTC)) off -10.46%.

The key event on this week’s economic calendar is the release of the RBA Board meeting minutes from two weeks ago. At that meeting, the RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% in a narrow 5-4 decision, the second consecutive hike after February’s move to 3.85%. 

Governor Michele Bullock noted all members agreed a hike was warranted due to renewed inflationary pressures, with the split focused on timing rather than the need for action.

Markets will scrutinise the minutes for clues on whether the Board believes further tightening is still required, or if the latest increase is viewed as sufficient to bring inflation sustainably back toward the 2–3% target.

The Australian rates market starts the week pricing in around 17 basis points of additional tightening for the May Board meeting.

There is a cumulative 70bps of hikes through the remainder of 2026, which would lift the cash rate to 4.80%.

NAB Markets Today Research extract

It was another ugly session for financial markets on Friday where price action reflects investors setting up for a protracted conflict. 

While President Trump may have paused strikes on Iran’s energy sector for another 10 days, the conflict continues with attacks on infrastructure.

US and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear and steel facilities; Iran retaliated and struck aluminum producers in United Arab Emirates and over the weekend the Houthis became involved, launching missiles at Israel.

In addition, there are reports the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troopers to the Middle East.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s comments that the US war in Iran will take ‘weeks not months’ did little to allay investor concerns. 

Now in its fifth week, the conflict appears to be escalating, with the prospect of a more prolonged disruption leaving it a challenging landscape for investors to navigate.

On the data front, Bloomberg released its latest survey on growth and inflation for the US.  Economists revised up PCE inflation forecasts with the median at 3.1% for 2026, up from 2.6%.

Growth was revised down to 2.3% from 2.5%. The final March read for US consumer sentiment was released with sentiment falling to a three month low at 53.3 (from preliminary read of 55.5), while year ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.8% (from 3.6), but medium term inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.2%. 

In focus this week in terms of data will be consumer and business surveys to gauge the impact that the conflict has had on confidence levels while there is US payrolls, Eurozone and Japan inflation data. Central bank commentary will also be closely watched.

The sell-off in US equity markets accelerated on Friday, the Nasdaq leading, closing down -1.9% while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 were down -1.7%.

The S&P500 is on pace to record its worst monthly performance since 2022. The biggest losers within the S&P500 were consumer discretionary stocks, closing down -3%.

Trump’s decision to extend the pause in Iran’s energy sector until April 7th has clearly not been enough to support investor sentiment where the focus is turning to the global economic impact of such a shock. This is now not just about the price of oil it includes fertiliser, petrochemicals, metals.

The VIX, a measure of equity market volatility, broke above 30 on Friday, closing at 31.06. It briefly broke above 30 (but did not close above 30) on 6th March, but prior to that has not traded above 30 since April 2025 (in the days after Liberation Day).

European stocks closed lower on Friday.

Reflecting the concern around the economic impact of the oil supply shock, credit spreads continued to edge wider on Friday. Given the uncertain backdrop and concern around the global economy, the flow of deals coming to the market eased. 

Rate hike expectations have been pared but still remain elevated with the OIS curve pricing a cumulative 72bps tightening by year end for the RBA; cumulative 74bps are priced for the RBNZ; cumulative 6bps for the Fed; 79bps for the ECB and 73bps for the BoE. 

ANZ Bank Commodities extract, Australian Morning Focus

Crude oil surged higher last week as the market braced for an extended conflict in the Middle East. US efforts to start negotiations with Iran on a peace deal appeared to have failed.

US President Trump pushed back a deadline for a ceasefire by 10 days amid concerns his subsequent threat to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure would trigger a further escalation.

The White House’s 15-point plan for talks to end the war failed to elicit a response from Iran. Despite these efforts, attacks from both sides increased.

US and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear and steel facilities. Iran retaliated by launching numerous drone and missile attacks at its Persian Gulf neighbours. This included strikes on two ports in Kuwait and a US military base in Saudi Arabia.

More worryingly was the prospect of the conflict widening across the region. On Friday, the Iran-backed Houthi militant group warned it was ready for direct military action if any other countries join the US and Israel.

Saudi Arabia has managed to get around the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz by utilising its east-west pipeline to get up to 6mb/d of oil to the international market via the Red Sea.

That could be a potential target for the Houthis, who are based in Yemen. They throttled much of the traffic through that crucial waterway for two years starting in 2023 in response to Israel’s war in Gaza.

Global gas markets remain on edge as the Middle East conflict continues to disrupt supplies from the region. The world’s biggest liquefied natural gas plant in Qatar has been halted and sustained damage during a missile attack.

Ten cargoes between April and mid-June are expected to be disrupted due to ongoing hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz.

Buyers in Europe are scrambling for alternative sources. However, those efforts are further complicated by supply-side issues in Australia. Three plants that provide about 8% of the world’s LNG have had their output curtailed by a cyclone.

While the disruption is expected to be relatively temporary, it comes at a critical time for the industry.

North Asian LNG prices are now up more than 90% since the US attacked Iran in late February. Copper recorded its first weekly gain this month on signs of stronger demand in China.

Copper inventories in China saw their biggest weekly drop this year, according to Mysteel Global. Fabricators have also stepped-up purchases due to a surge in new orders.

Aluminum is likely to see further gains this week after Iran attacked another smelter in the Persian Gulf. Aluminum Bahrain, which hosts one of the world’s largest smelters, said its facility was the subject of an Iranian attack.

The company had already cut production capacity by -19% of its 1.6mt/t due to transit disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. About 4-5mt of exports from the region remain at risk, and there is no alternative supply to cover the shortfall.

Gold rebounded late last week as opportunistic buyers emerged after the biggest sell-off in years. Gold prices have fallen more than -15% this month, pressured by the liquidation of gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

Investors subsequently reduced their exposure to the lowest since October, according to CFTC data. That washout seems to have encouraged some investors to believe that the worst of the selling is behind them.

Gold Strategy, RBC Capital Markets extract

There are a few key takeaways from this week in our eyes that 1) signal the changing nature of uncertainty from gold perspective, and 2) reinforce our conviction in our long-held view on gold prices, that they should spend most of their time in the US$4500-US$5000/oz range this year, a range which could potentially increase through year-end towards our Q4 high scenario price of US$5203/oz.

At this point, we think there are more avenues to get to these potential outcomes than previously, even if the reasoning is incrementally differentiated from our original thinking.

Being back around the low end of our forecasted price range at the time of writing, amid the war in Iran, gives us breathing room, especially given the fact that earlier this year we had to make room for material upside risk, which now seems like a distant memory.

Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, we think the view on Iran conflict uncertainty may now be in the early stages of changing into a more gold-positive take, as concerns about the economic impact grow.

Gold has fallen precipitously during this crisis overall. At first, moves in the dollar and yields blunted gold’s ability to respond to uncertainty. However, the market’s view of this particular uncertainty is unique in our eyes.

In contrast to earlier forms of uncertainty (trade and tariffs, politics, government shutdowns, Fed independence concerns, geopolitics and Greenland, etc.) this crisis was uniquely viewed as one not requiring gold’s role as a catch-all hedge, especially compared to the more pervasive and difficult to hedge uncertainties in 2025 and earlier in 2026.

To date, this uncertainty has been hedged in a single market (energy). However, as the conflict drags on, the inflationary impact on energy becomes more worrying and concerns about economic growth rise.

In this scenario, what has been viewed gold-negative or gold-neutral uncertainty, may become a lot more relevant to gold prices. In fact, Friday’s moves indicate this shift may be in its early innings, with gold rising alongside the dollar and yields, while equities fell.

Even prior to Friday, the week’s trading pattern and seeming stabilization of gold prices around US$4500/oz (notably the low end of what we view as the likely range) materialized via upwards moves largely occurring on the back of headline-driven optimism.

This tells us the longer-term trends supporting gold have not evaporated and that the duration of this crisis and the appreciation of its specific uncertainty matter immensely.

Despite some forced selling, potential profit taking, and uncooperative macro-drivers in the near-term, we do not think that the longer-term trends towards diversification, de-dollarization, and rising allocations that had driven gold higher have permanently changed among investors and central banks.

Similarly, we do not get the sense from any of our conversations that the greater sense of gold-positive uncertainty is off the table. On that note, we suspect that longer-term, gold positive, trends will prove intact, but that this conflict may hold gold back in the meantime (at least until the market’s perception of the nature of this uncertainty changes materially).

This potentially means, that similarly to energy prices, the duration of the conflict matters immensely for gold, as does the market’s appreciation of risk and uncertainty stemming from it.

Earlier this year we called out US$7100/oz as a potential high gold could achieve on the back of proliferating uncertainty. We used the premiums achieved in 2025 as a proxy, and given the three prior long-term gold rallies we identified indicated an average-to-max length of around 1100-1200 days, that could get us as far as mid-December.

We figured the uncertainty that drove gold to all time highs early on this year could make for a repeat performance in 2026. While that high is much more on the sidelines now, bringing us back to our long-held view, we note that nothing is off the table amid elevated volatility.

Despite laying out the potential for that high, we never changed our published price scenarios, simply because we struggled to build or model a macro justification for those price levels, at least outside of proliferating uncertainty.

While the Iran crisis is in many ways what pulled us back from the possibility at this point, we remain of the view the longer-term macro gold drivers are sticky and we think the market’s take on this uncertainty could shift further as this crisis drags on.

Overall, we maintain our conviction in our long-held view on gold prices.

Corporate news in Australia

-Firmus co-founder Oliver Curtis cleared to lead proposed $6bn AI firm towards an ASX listing

-NextDC ((NXT)) postponed $500m bond issuance following weak investor demand

-4DMedical ((4DX)) raised $83m to fund European expansion after securing EU approval

-Atomo Diagnostics ((AT1)) secured $4m capital raise following Lumos FDA approval milestone

-Valiant Gold ((VAL)) listed on the ASX after completing a $75m IPO

-Blackstone-backed Xpansiv launches a $2bn funding round

-Canva reports continued revenue growth but also ongoing net losses in its home market

-KMD Brands ((KMD)) faces challenges raising $54–70m in emergency equity funding

-Mining companies seek ACCC approval for joint fuel security initiatives

-Westpac ((WBC)) and CommBank ((CBA)) intensify competition through aggressive AI talent recruitment

-Macquarie Asset Management ((MQG)) is working on a turnaround plan for Bingo Industries

-Rio Tinto ((RIO)) has started US legal action over tariffs while progressing mine approval efforts

On the calendar today:

-US March Dallas Fed mfg

-ARENA REIT ((ARF)) ex-div 4.81c

-CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT ((CIP)) ex-div 4.20c

-CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) ex-div 6.38c

-CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP ((CMW)) ex-div 0.75c

-CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) ex-div 2.53c

-CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT ((CQE)) ex-div 4.3c

-DPM METALS INC ((DPM)) ex-div 4.22c

-DEXUS CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT ((DXC)) ex-div 5.23c

-DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT ((DXI)) ex-div 4.15c

-EVZ LIMITED ((EVZ)) ex-div 0.50c (100%)

-GARDA PROPERTY GROUP ((GDF)) ex-div 2.25c

-HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) ex-div 2.15c

-RURAL FUNDS GROUP ((RFF)) ex-div 2.93c

-SEQUOIA FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((SEQ)) ex-div 1.00c (100%)

-VERBREC LIMITED ((VBC)) ex-div 0.10c (100%)

-VULCAN ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED ((VUL)) FY25 Earnings

-WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED ((WPR)) ex-div 4.25c

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

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