EMERALD RESOURCES NL (EMR)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

03/04/2025

4

Upgrade to Lighten from Sell

$3.60

-4.26%

Ord Minnett has broadly reduced its commodity price forecasts, with the exception of gold and neodymium-praseodymium.

The broker cites growing concerns over weakening Chinese steel demand and the potential global trade and economic impacts stemming from proposed US tariffs.

The broker's 2025 iron ore price forecast falls by -3%, while metallurgical coal and thermal coal price estimates fall by -18% and -17%, respectively.

On a sector level, Ord Minnett prefers base metal producers over the bulk miners, noting limited appeal among the lithium and coal producers.

Rio Tinto is preferred over over BHP Group among the large diversified miners, while South32, Capstone Copper, and MAC Copper are the analyst's top picks for base metals exposure.

The broker upgrades its rating for Emerald Resources to Lighten from Sell and maintains a $3.60 target.

Among the large gold exposures, the analysts like Buy-rated Newmont Corp.

26/03/2025

1

Buy

$5.25

39.63%

Emerald Resources downgraded the March quarter production guidance for the Okvau gold mine in Cambodia and raised the cost forecast. This is due to underperformance of the reserve and more earthworks and waste movements.

The company now expects production of 20koz at a cost of US$1,320-1,440/oz versus 25-30koz at US$1,100-1,200/oz guided last month.

The broker has incorporated new guidance and cost into the forecasts, leading to a lower target price of $5.25 from $5.30. Buy rating intact.

FORECAST
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.