Weekly Reports | Aug 03 2026
This story features CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CNI
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 27 to Friday July 31, 2026
Total Upgrades: 5
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.07%; Hold 28.19%; Sell 6.73%
For the week ending Friday, 31 July 2026, FNArena registered five upgrades for individual ASX-listed companies against twelve downgrades as the seven stockbrokers monitored daily are preparing for the upcoming August results season.
After a slew of profit warnings coming through in April, May and June, early financial result releases have been positive, but the sample thus far remains small.
FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor started on Friday with three assessments, of which two (Newmont and Rio Tinto) broadly met expectations, while Ampol ‘beat’ but had to temper enthusiasm as its refinery is due maintenance later in the year.
https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/
(Scroll down for the August calendar)
It’s early days and the numbers start gradually ramping up later this week when REA Group, AMP, Block and ResMed release their financial numbers.
The two sectors responsible for most rating changes are REITs and mining companies as analysts debate the prospect of further RBA rate increases and whether it is too early still to start buying rate sensitive equities.
Consensus is positioned for 12% growth in earnings per share, on average, and Mining companies are carrying the bulk of it on their shoulders.
Better priced commodities have created a much more favourable environment for many, but there’s always the threat of disappointment lurking from weather events, more capex requirement and/or higher costs.
Expectations are for more positive surprises through dividends and capital management. Early indications from the three companies mentioned have confirmed the positive undercurrent is tangible and real.
Equally noteworthy: all six upgrades last week moved to Buy while only one downgrade shifted to Sell, with Coronado Global Resources the recipient.
Market updates by Australia’s two refiners have been well-received and both Viva Energy and Ampol sit on top of the week’s ranking for positive adjustments to target prices.
James Hardie sits third, as its pre-released quarterly numbers surprised to the upside, followed by AMP whose market update equally beat forecasts, thanks to its Chinese JV China Life Pension Company.
Outside of the top three, the numbers are small and inconsequential, but at least they’re moving counter-trend, as also shown by the much larger percentages in the week’s top ten for negative changes to price targets.
Small-cap biotechs and small-cap mining companies populate the negative side of the ledger, with WiseTech Global the exception. It should therefore hardly surprise negative adjustments are much larger.
This is equally the case for the week’s upgrades and downgrades to forecasts, though here the gap between positives and negatives is noticeably smaller.
Whereas quarterly market updates from the likes of Iluka Resources, Whitehaven Coal, Sandfire Resources, Alpha HPA and Minerals Resources have forced analysts to significantly lift their projections, the opposite occurred when Coronado, Bellevue Gold, Liontown and Boss Energy released their quarterly updates.
Regal Partners too enjoyed upgraded expectations, while forecasts for SiteMinder and Telix Pharmaceuticals took another leg south.
The Australian share market has entered August with general sentiment looking fragile, as also shown in Friday’s session, though the ASX200 has outperformed US equities in July, largely on a strong performance from the local banking sector.
New sector analysis by UBS suggested the market is underestimating the returns from lending to infrastructure projects and data centres for Australian banks, which also explains the rating upgrade for Westpac.
Underneath, share market polarisation remains high with many a small cap in particular finding the going tough.
This looks like the ideal set-up for an extra volatile August results season.
Upgrade
CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1
UBS points out the A-REIT 200’s year-to-date return of -7% lags the ASX 200 at 4% due to ongoing inflation, higher interest rates and the post-Budget blues.
The upcoming RBA rates decision on August 11 is likely to “set the tone” for earnings season, with the broker forecasting a 25 bps hike, but the analyst sees the investment case as “compelling”. The expected hike is considered a “clearing event” for the sector.
The sector is trading at an “undemanding” valuation of 14x PER and around a -8% discount to NTA, ex Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Charter Hall ((CHC)).
Centuria Capital is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a lower target price of $2.11 from $2.34. The REIT is yielding 7% with the share price discounting no value for ResetData or Bass.
See also CNI downgrade.
CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/0
UBS points out the A-REIT 200’s year-to-date return of -7% lags the ASX 200 at 4% due to ongoing inflation, higher interest rates and the post-Budget blues.
The upcoming RBA rates decision on August 11 is likely to “set the tone” for earnings season, with the broker forecasting a 25 bps hike, but the analyst sees the investment case as “compelling”. The expected hike is considered a “clearing event” for the sector.
The sector is trading at an “undemanding” valuation of 14x PER and around a -8% discount to NTA, ex Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Charter Hall ((CHC)).
Charter Hall Retail REIT is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a 13% rise in the target price to $4.30 from higher EPS forecasts and lower weighted average cost of capital assumptions.
It is trading on a -20% discount to NTA and a 6.8% yield with stronger growth expected in FY27.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Mineral Resources provided a firm fourth quarter as production and costs beat estimates across mining services, iron ore and lithium. Morgans points out the company’s diversification underpins a more stable earnings profile compared with single-commodity peers.
Completion of the 30% sell-down of the Wodgina and Mount Marion interest in the first half of FY27 is expected to materially strengthen the balance sheet. The broker also believes further upside exists at Onslow.
The company has transitioned to a reliable operating platform and Morgans upgrades to Buy from Accumulate with the target unchanged at $68.
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/1/3
UBS stresses institutional banking with a total addressable market of $308m is an overlooked part of the Australian banking market.
Over the last three years, cash profits from this segment have expanded at a CAGR of 11% versus retail at around 6% and business banking at 9%-plus.
The analyst’s channel checks indicate there are several structural earnings levers, AI, infrastructure, defence and energy transition to name a few, which proffer potential upside of around $85bn in lending. This is not fully priced in by the market.
The institutional market is expected to boost EPS growth, and the broker upgrades EPS forecast by around 1%-2.5% for the majors over the next two years, with circa 7% as the upside case.
Westpac which is upgraded to Buy from Neutral, and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) and ANZ Bank ((ANZ)) are in the optimal positions to capitalise on the opportunity.
Target price for Westpac is raised to $45 from $38.80. EPS forecasts are upgraded by 0.4% for FY26, 1% for FY27 and 2.5% for FY28.
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Whitehaven Coal delivered FY26 guidance, with run-of-mine (ROM) coal production and coal sales at the top end of guidance, Morgans highlights.
The broker notes a strong operational recovery at the company’s Queensland mines despite ongoing challenges at Narrabri.
Lower unit costs, disciplined capital expenditure and recent refinancing have strengthened the balance sheet, the analyst observes, positioning the company to benefit from any recovery in coal prices.
Morgans lowers its target to $8.50 from $9.20. The rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate given recent share price weakness, improving operational performance and leverage to stronger long-term metallurgical and thermal coal markets.
Downgrade
CHALLENGER LIMITED ((CGF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/0
UBS has downgraded Challenger to Neutral from Buy, warning that accelerating growth is likely to come at the expense of margins.
The company’s $6bn Term Annuity Backed Note program and expansion into offshore reinsurance could add more than $8bn, or over 30%, to Life assets under management within three-to-five years.
The broker has raised its forecast for Life assets under management growth to a 10% CAGR over FY26-FY29, from 7%.
However, increased investment in lower-margin fixed income assets and narrowing credit spreads are expected to reduce Life margins from 2.99% in FY27 to around 2.65% by FY29, creating downside risk to consensus earnings forecasts.
UBS lowers its FY27 and FY28 EPS forecasts by -2% but expects stronger asset growth to support earnings further out. The price target rises to $11.30 from $11.00, with the downgrade reflecting limited valuation upside and near-term margin risks.
CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Post recent media articles raising concerns over the exposure to one of the Bathia Group credit funds, Ord Minnett has reviewed its earnings forecasts.
Bathia is noted as a Sydney property developer and construction company which is believed to be experiencing financial problems, including over $3bn in debt and unpaid bills.
Centuria has provided directly a $4.5m loan facility to Bathia and its Bass Credit Fund has six loan facilities, the broker points out.
The analyst forecasts a -$300m net outflow for FY27-FY28 for Centuria Bass Credit and AUM to fall to $2.35bn.
Funds from operations forecasts are cut by -4.8% for FY27, -8.6% for FY28 and -8.3% for FY29. Target price falls to $1.95 from $2.10.
The stock is downgraded to Hold from Buy.
See also CNI upgrade.
CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Downgrade to Speculative Sell from Speculative Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/1
Coronado Global Resources’ 2Q2026 saleable coal production of 4.1Mt was broadly in line with Bell Potter’s 4.2Mt forecast. Sales of 3.5Mt missed expectations due to a 430kt inventory build, which is expected to unwind in the current quarter.
Curragh production rebounded strongly following first-quarter maintenance, with saleable production up 76% q/q. Group mining costs improved to US$98/t from US$114/t in the first half.
However, lower sales volumes meant quarterly EBITDA was just US$2m versus the broker’s US$116m forecast.
The analyst highlighted a structural reset at Curragh targeting lower mining and infrastructure costs, improved plant performance and a simplified operating model, with benefits expected to be reflected in 2027 guidance.
EPS forecasts are downgraded across 2026–2028. The stock is downgraded to a Speculative Sell from Speculative Hold. Target price falls to 17c from 30c.
DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/5/1
Weak same-store sales, further store closures and pressure on consumer spending prompt another reduction to earnings forecasts for Domino’s Pizza Enterprises.
Ord Minnett explains although franchisee profitability and balance-sheet leverage are improving, the post-update share-price rally has removed sufficient upside.
Rating is thus downgraded to Hold from Buy; $21 target retained.
HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/1
UBS points out the A-REIT 200’s year-to-date return of -7% lags the ASX 200 at 4% due to ongoing inflation, higher interest rates and the post-budget blues.
The upcoming RBA rates decision on 11 August is likely to “set the tone” for earnings season, with the broker forecasting a 25 bps hike, but the analyst sees the investment case as “compelling”. The expected hike is considered a “clearing event” for the sector.
The sector is trading at an “undemanding” valuation of 14x PER and around an -8% discount to NTA, ex Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Charter Hall ((CHC)).
HomeCo Daily Needs REIT is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a lower target price of $1.35 from $1.40. The REIT is exposed to a housing slowdown with 40% of income from large format retail tenants.
KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0
Morgans lowers its target for Karoon Energy by -2c to $1.75 and downgrades to Hold from Buy, citing a more balanced risk-reward profile after a 20% share price rally since late June.
Second quarter production of 1.09mmboe was around -4% below the consensus estimate. The analyst explains this outcome reflected planned maintenance at the Bauna FPSO, shut-ins at the SPS-92 and PRA-2 wells, and the Who Dat E-riser leak.
Stronger oil prices more than offset lower production, the analyst explains, with revenue of US$116.4m exceeding consensus by 4%.
The broker believes Karoon Energy’s June quarter marked an operational turning point, with Bauna returning to production and positioning the company for a strong improvement in free cash flow (FCF) during H2 of 2026.
It is now felt that operational risk has shifted to the non-operated Who Dat asset in the Gulf of Mexico.
LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((LOT)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/0
Lotus Resources has conducted a 1-for-1 rights issue at a -67% discount, a $35m convertible with a detachable warrant at 85c, Macquarie highlights.
The issue is described as a “rescue package” to allow for production to restart at the Kayelera mine and processing plant.
The analyst attributes the financial travails to the location of the mine, which has become a major logistics challenge, including the trucking of diesel and sulphuric acid in and out of Malawi.
A lack of debt/working capital and the Middle East war with higher diesel and acid prices also weighed on Lotus.
First U308 production is now targeted for September. EPS forecasts are downgraded and the target price cut by -81% to 25c.
Macquarie downgrades the stock to Neutral from Outperform.
NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Morgans updates its modelling after the fourth quarter results from Northern Star Resources showed costs across Pogo, Yandal and KCGM were below forecasts and FY26 volumes finished at the top end of revised guidance.
FY27 guidance has been deferred to the 20 August result pending early KCGM mill expansion commissioning data.
The medium to longer term investment case remains compelling, the broker adds, yet in the near term the unresolved activist pressure from Elliott Investment Management raises the prospect of a strategic review, sale process or asset divestment.
Absent a near-term catalyst, Morgans expects the valuation discount to persist and reduces the target to $24 from $26. Rating is moved to Accumulate from Buy.
REGION GROUP ((RGN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1
UBS points out the A-REIT 200’s year-to-date return of -7% lags the ASX 200 at 4% due to ongoing inflation, higher interest rates and the post-Budget blues.
The upcoming RBA rates decision on 11 August is likely to “set the tone” for earnings season, with the broker forecasting a 25 bps hike, but the analyst sees the investment case as “compelling”. The expected hike is considered a “clearing event” for the sector.
The sector is trading at an “undemanding” valuation of 14x PER and around a -8% discount to NTA, ex Goodman Group ((GMG)) and Charter Hall ((CHC)).
Region Group is downgraded to Neutral from Buy with a slightly higher target price of $2.45 from $2.40. The REIT has been a relative outperformer and is trading at the highest price to NTA discount.
SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Sandfire Resources posted a strong result for the fourth quarter, with net cash of $353m beating Morgans’ forecasts. The company is now free of debt.
FY27 production guidance is in line with forecasts and capital expenditure is expected to be higher than previously anticipated.
The strength of the result has the broker confident in the company’s ability to execute on its plans for Matsa and Motheo, and is the second consecutive year it has made up considerable ground in the fourth quarter and met guidance.
As the stock is now approaching fair value and the near-term upside is thus seen as limited, the rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy. Target is unchanged at $22.00.
STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SMR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Stanmore Resources has refinanced its corporate debt, reducing borrowing margins by -100 basis points. Morgans observes financial flexibility is enhanced by removing around US$70m in scheduled principal repayments per annum through to maturity on 30th June 2029.
Group ROM production has exceeded expectations in the June quarter and reflects a strong rebound from weather-related disruptions in the first quarter. Saleable production was 3.37mt, ahead of the broker’s forecasts by 1.8%, and coal sales of 3.37mt were 3.3% ahead.
Morgans assesses, while metallurgical coal prices can move materially above consensus, the company’s production profile is beginning to decline and earnings capacity, in the absence of higher commodity prices, will reduce.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy with the target steady at $2.80.
SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Santos delivered June quarter output that was -4% short of expectations, Ord Minnett notes, stemming from Cyclone Narelle’s impact and the delayed commissioning of the Darwin LNG project.
Production guidance for 2026 has been downgraded by -2%-5%, although guidance for costs and capex is maintained. The broker’s estimates are trimmed by -1.4% for 2026 and by a marginal -0.1% for 2027.
Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate given the increase in the stock price of around 12% in the past three weeks. Target is steady at $7.60.
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Positive Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ - ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CGF - CHALLENGER LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CHC - CHARTER HALL GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CNI - CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CQR - CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CRN - CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DMP - DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HDN - HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KAR - KAROON ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LOT - LOTUS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NAB - NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RGN - REGION GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SFR - SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SMR - STANMORE RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: STO - SANTOS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED