Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 02-05-25

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This story features AMCOR PLC, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMC
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 28 to Friday May 2, 2025
Total Upgrades: 9
Total Downgrades: 9
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.73%; Hold 31.96%; Sell 6.32%

In a very busy week of quarterly reporting ending on Friday, May 2, 2025, FNArena tracked nine upgrades and nine downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

In the tables below, the top ten percentage falls in average target prices and average forecasts are consistently larger than the top ten increases.

Coronado Global Resources, Syrah Resources, and Flight Centre Travel received the largest cuts to average targets by analysts and also appear in the table of negative change to average earnings forecasts.

Coronado’s first quarter production, sales, and mining costs all missed Bell Potter’s forecasts, but the bigger takeaway from the update involved emerging balance sheet concerns on weaker coal markets.

In reaction, the broker lowered its target for Coronado to 23c from 50c and downgraded to Speculative Hold from Buy.

The company’s net debt position rose to US$170m from US$60m in the previous quarter due to higher capital expenditure, estimated by Ord Minnett at around -US$106m.

This broker believes weak coal prices will continue to weigh on Coronado’s free cash flow throughout the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. On increased cost assumptions, the broker’s target has been reduced to 20c from 28c.

While a data entry glitch was responsible for Syrah Resources’ lower earnings forecasts/target, UBS provided an important update on its Balama operations which have remained offline for a third straight quarter due to ongoing unrest in Mozambique.

An agreement on resettlement and compensation has been reached, allowing for a potential restart within four to six weeks.

The company’s Vidalia facility in Louisiana has begun producing active anode material (AAM), a critical component for lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles.

First AAM sales are still guided for 2025, but timing depends on the completion of rigorous qualification processes by major customers like Tesla and Luci, explained the broker.

Over at Flight Centre, management lowered FY25 profit guidance, noting ongoing uncertain trading conditions (read US trade and entry policies) are set to weigh on the company’s busiest trading months of May and June.

As explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/02/flight-centre-a-downgrade-anticipated/, the market had generally anticipated management would downgrade guidance and initiatives are underway to address the current uncertainty.

Stanmore Resources heads up the week’s earnings downgrade list, followed by 29Metals.

While Stanmore’s FY25 earnings forecast dipped, FY26 forecasts and the average target price of brokers rose after first quarter production and sales slightly beat Citi’s forecasts, but net debt rose to US$146m from US$26m at the end of December.

Management maintained FY25 production guidance but weighted it to the second half of 2025, due to weather-related issues in the first half.

Ord Minnett raised its target to $2.40 from $2.20 partly due to an improved outlook for the Isaac Downs metallurgical coal operation in Queensland’s Bowen Basin.

For 29Metals, here first quarter copper production at Golden Grove fell short of forecasts, but costs were also lower on positive stockpile movements, with site costs flat.

On the flipside, average FY25 earnings forecasts rose last week for Paladin Energy, IGO Ltd, and Mineral Resources by 41%, 21% and 16%, respectively.

Shaw and Partners suggested the 50% rally in Paladin Energy’s share price in the past six trading sessions had further to go as the market had initially over-reacted to commissioning issues at the Langer Heinrich mine.

This broker felt third quarter production was a strong outcome, up 18% quarter-on-quarter despite a rain disruption, and now believes the company could meet the lower end of previously withdrawn FY25 guidance.

Alluding to recent market short positions across the uranium sector, including on Paladin, Ord Minnett agreed with Shaw on the future stock price direction as short covering has further to go, also given the recent rise in spot uranium prices.

In further quarterly reporting, IGO Ltd and Mineral Resources both impressed brokers.

IGO’s realised pricing at Greenbushes was stronger than analyst’s forecast, and lower costs at Nova supported margins, noted Morgan Stanley. Mineral Resources achieved its lowest quarterly mining services unit cost since 2018, and unit costs across both lithium and iron ore improved sharply, highlighted Morgans.

Earnings forecasts also rose for Newmont Corp and Sigma Healthcare, finishing respectively second and third on the positive change to average target price list below.

Newmont’s March quarter earnings came in 11% above consensus, helped by stronger production, explained Ord Minnett, as well as by-product sales, and higher realised prices.

Macquarie’s forecasts for gold production and costs were beaten by 6% and 12%, respectively.

Free cash flow of $1.2bn was materially ahead of Ord Minnett’s $457m forecast, allowing management to reduce net debt to $3.2bn from $6.4bn in 2023.

Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on Sigma Healthcare with an Overweight rating and a $3.45 target price, 15% above the next highest target in the FNArena database.

Highlighting Sigma’s transformation into Australia’s largest vertically integrated pharmacy retailer and distributor following its February 2025 merger with Chemist Warehouse Group, the broker suggested forecast cost synergies have potential for upward surprise.

Revenue optimisation through format conversions, private label expansion, and retail media is also thought to offer meaningful upside.

The analysts see structural tailwinds such as aging demographics and increased health/wellness spending supporting sector-leading same-store sales growth of around 10% over FY25-28.

Ramelius Resources received the largest percent lift (6%) to average target price from analysts following March quarter results, and Ord Minnett raised its target to $3.05 from $2.80 and upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

The company generated $223m in free cash flow, with standout margins at Mt Magnet exceeding $3,000/oz, while costs (AISC) were -9% below the broker’s estimates.

Management at Ramelius also narrowed FY25 guidance reflecting outperformance at the Cue gold development located in the Murchison region of Western Australia.

Ord Minnett highlighted the ramp-up in exploration across Mt Magnet, Cue, and Penny. The Southern Palladium Resources acquisition is expected to enhance near-mine opportunities and feed into a positive integrated group study due in the second quarter of FY26.

Due to recent share price strength, Regis Resources last week received two rating downgrades to Neutral from Buy (or equivalent).

The standout for Morgans from the company’s third quarter report was strong cash flow due to consistent production and higher gold prices.

Net cash and bullion rose to $367m, reflecting a $512m improvement over 15 months, highlighted the analysts at Bell Potter.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.73% of the total, versus 31.96% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.32%.

Upgrade

AMCOR PLC ((AMC)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Morgan Stanley believes Amcor’s merger with Berry Global is expected to deliver cost synergies of US$650m over three years, with 40% forecast to be realised in FY26.

Morgan Stanley estimates FY26 EPS at US$0.85, rising to US$0.96 in FY27 and US$1.03 in FY28, reflecting earnings accretion of 7% in FY26, 14% in FY27, and 16% in FY28 from the merger.

Dividends are forecast at US$0.51, US$0.55, and US$0.59 per share over the same period.

The analyst upgrades the stock to Overweight from Equal-weight and the target price lifts to $20.31 from $16. 

Morgan Stanley believes the market is overlooking the transaction with Berry is not yet included in consensus estimates with the transaction completed on April 30.

Industry view:In-Line.

ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/6/0

Citi has reviewed the Australian banks sector following the recent trading pattern and ahead of the 1H25 result. The broker views the buying in these stocks as more a result of investors avoiding exposures like resources, tariff risks etc, than the price being paid.

The broker remains negative on the sector on stretched valuations and potential headwinds from rate cuts (factoring four RBA cuts to 3.1%) and economic slowdown. Other headwinds include a near lack of capital management and no further need at super funds to further increase their exposure.

For ANZ Bank, the broker’s forecast is 4% ahead of consensus on 1H25 cash earnings due mainly to a forecast of -32% below consensus on bad debt expenses. The broker believes the current share price has factored in the new CEO risk.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell, given relative underperformance. Target price lifted to $27.50 from $25.25.

BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Ord Minnett upgrades Baby Bunting to Buy from Accumulate due to recent share price weakness. The target price is retained at $2.15.

The company announced an upbeat trading update, according to the analyst, supported by strong sales momentum, profit margins tracking in line, and positive feedback on the new flagship store opening.

Year-to-date comparable sales grew 3.7% in 2H25 through to April 27, with FY25 sales growth expected to be between 2%3%, the broker explains.

Management lifted net profit after tax guidance to $10m$12.5m from $9.5m$12.5m.

Ord Minnett believes the company continues to make progress in growing sales, margins, and profitability.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Following today’s in-line March quarter operational performance by Fortescue, Citi maintains its $17.50 target and upgrades to Buy from Neutral given the recently weak share price, which has materially underformed BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

At first glance, the broker highlights strong cost performance for the period, while price realisations for both hematite and concentrate were modestly below expectations.

The analysts explain the increase in net debt was partly driven by management completing the acquisition of Red Hawk Mining ((RHK)) for -$254m during the quarter.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Mineral Resources reported iron ore and lithium production in line with expectations, but cost outcomes were significantly better, Morgans stresses.

The company achieved its lowest quarterly mining services unit cost since 2018, and unit costs across both lithium and iron ore improved sharply.

Lithium sales of 139kt from Mount Marion and Wodgina were ahead of forecasts, though realised prices were slightly below expectations. Iron ore shipments totalled 5.9 million tonnes at a 62% iron ore equivalent basis.

Morgans notes the Onslow Haul Road upgrade is progressing well and remains on track for completion in the first quarter of financial year 2026, which should support nameplate capacity of 35 million tonnes per annum.

Confidence in execution has improved materially, the analyst believes, and cost improvements lead to a 14% and 6% upgrade to earnings forecasts for FY25/FY26, respectively.

Target price raised to $23.00 from $18.00. Add rating upgraded.

MEDICAL DEVELOPMENTS INTERNATIONAL LIMITED ((MVP)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Bell Potter raises its target for Medical Developments International to 80c from 71c, driven by a lower discount rate and adjusted valuation weighting, and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Hold

Management delivered a surprise positive operating cash flow of approximately $1.7m in the March quarter, observe the analysts. This represents a $5.6m improvement year-on-year, and turns year-to-date cash flow to a positive $0.9m, up $11m from the prior year.

Cash flows benefited from favourable debtor payment timing, but Bell Potter cautions the June quarter may show negative cash flow as working capital shifts and inventory is built for the US respiratory season.

A new distribution agreement has been signed with Ethypharm to accelerate Penthrox sales in France, leveraging Ethypharm’s established position in pain and addiction therapies across Europe, explains Bell Potter.

RESMED INC ((RMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/0

ResMed reported March quarter results ahead of Ord Minnett’s expectations, with gross margin expansion driven by a stronger product mix and manufacturing efficiencies, and announced an increase in its share buyback program from June 30.

Revenue grew by 9% year-on-year, and EPS rose by 17%, supported by broad-based strength across both US and rest-of-world markets, explains the broker, with mask sales up 13% and CPAP device sales up 6%.

These numbers alleviate concerns around the impact of weight-loss drugs on patient volumes, suggests the analyst. Strong operating leverage is expected to continue, supported by further gross margin expansion, tight cost control, and production improvements.

The broker views ResMed’s balance sheet as capable of sustaining increased buybacks while supporting ongoing growth initiatives.

The target price rises to $45.60 from $44.80 and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Ramelius Resources delivered a strong March quarter result, in Ord Minnett’s opinion, generating $223m in free cash flow, with standout margins at Mt Magnet exceeding $3,000/oz.

Costs (AISC) were -9% below the broker’s estimates, and FY25 guidance was narrowed to 290-300koz reflecting outperformance at Cue.

The broker highlights the ramp-up in exploration across Mt Magnet, Cue, and Penny, with the Southern Palladium Resources acquisition expected to enhance near-mine opportunities and feed into a positive integrated group study due 2Q FY26.

The broker raises its target price to $3.05 from $2.80 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Sandfire Resources delivered a resilient March quarter despite heavy rainfall disrupting operations at Matsa in Spain and Motheo in Botswana, Morgans observes.

Group production of 25.5kt copper, 21.5kt zinc, and 1.14Moz silver was slightly below forecasts. Group revenue of US$283m was 4% versus expectations, though earnings (EBITDA) of US$145m beat by 3%.

Net debt reduced by -16% quarter-on-quarter to US$243m, highlighting strong cash generation.

At Motheo, production was affected by flooding, but higher grades and recoveries offset volume losses, and unit costs of US$1.34/lb remained within guidance. Matsa unit costs increased to US$1.54/lb, up 5%, largely due to the stronger euro.

Morgans makes minor upgrades to production forecasts for the final quarter and now sits slightly below guidance for FY25 and EPS for FY25 are lowered by 4%, while estimates for FY26/FY27 rose by 18% and 7%, respectively.

The target price slips to $11.60 from $11.80. The stock is upgraded to Add from Hold.

See also SFR downgrade.

Downgrade

COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 0/5/1

Citi downgrades Computershare to Sell from Neutral, citing constrained EPS growth into FY26 despite strong FY25 momentum. The broker notes the current valuation for the company is around 14% above the 10-year average.

Margin income is expected to decline due to a softer global interest rate outlook.  While higher balances offer a partial hedge, macro volatility could limit upside, explains the broker.

Transactional indicators were robust in 3Q25, yet overall debt issuance slowed, and trustee activity declined, highlights the analyst.

The broker no longer expects further share buybacks due to contributed equity nearing negative territory, reducing a buffer against falling rates.

Citi raises the target price to $39.00 from $37.40 but sees downside risk at current valuations.

CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Coronado Global Resources’ 1Q25 production, sales and group mining costs all missed Bell Potter’s forecast, but the bigger takeaway from the update was emerging balance sheet concerns on weaker coal markets.

The company is negotiating the restructuring of US$150m facility under more flexible terms or with another lender. The company is also in discussions to extend rebate and royalty payment terms, and is targeting -US$100m operating/capital cash reductions in FY25. 

Based on the recent figures, the broker has calculated 3Q EBITDA loss of -US$73m vs its forecast of -US$11m.

Rating downgraded to Hold (Speculative) from Buy on balance sheet risks. Target cut to 23c from 50c.

CATALYST METALS LIMITED ((CYL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Catalyst Metals reported March quarter gold production of 24.3koz, below Bell Potter’s forecast for 30koz, impacted by wet weather, labour absenteeism, and remote loading issues, particularly at Plutonic.

Costs (AISC) were elevated at $2,765/oz due to lower production across a largely fixed cost base, explains the broker, while the average realised gold price was $4,652/oz.

Year-to-date production stands at 81koz, and the company is on track to meet the lower end of FY25 guidance of 105-120koz at AISC of between $2,300-2,500/oz.

Development activities progressed across satellite mines, with first ore mined from Plutonic East and drilling at Trident extending mineralisation, supporting a longer mine life and higher production assumptions by the broker.

The broker’s rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy after a share price rally. The target price rises to $6.30 from $5.50.

GOLD ROAD RESOURCES LIMITED ((GOR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Gold Road Resources reported March quarter gold sales of 71.2koz, in line with Bell Potter’s 71.5koz forecast, with costs (AISC) at $2,658/oz, matching expectations, and the average realised gold price at $4,555/oz.

Cash and bullion rose to $203.8m, and 2025 production guidance of 325-355koz at costs (AISC) of $2,4002,600/oz was reaffirmed, following prior disclosure of minor processing disruptions during the quarter, observe the analysts.

Given the indicative $3.05 per share offer from Gold Fields Ltd, which management rejected as undervaluing future assets like Gruyere underground and Gilmour, the broker applies a 30% premium to these assets.

Bell Potter downgrades the rating to Hold from Buy and raises the target price slightly to $3.25 from $3.20.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Northern Star Resources’ 3Q25 gold sales of 385koz fell short of Bell Potter’s forecast of 403koz due to slower ramp-up at the Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines, while cost was higher.

On the brighter side, the average gold price of $4,039/oz beat the broker’s $4,008/oz forecast. The company downgraded the FY25 gold sales volume forecast, lifted the cost forecast and raised capex guidance.

The broker incorporated these into forecasts, and additionally cut FY26 production forecast and lifted cost estimate.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy on valuation grounds. Target cut to $20.85 from $22.15 on forecast revisions.

PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Pantoro reported March quarter gold production of 18,334oz at a cost (AISC) of $2,427/oz, missing Bell Potter’s forecast of 20,505oz.

Production guidance of 23,000oz plus or minus 10% was also missed, mainly due to delays at Scotia Underground, explains the broker.

First ore was produced from the Princess Royal open pit ahead of the analysts’ expectations, and cost control remained strong, with free cash flow generation lifting cash and bullion holdings to $132.4m at quarter-end.

Revised guidance for June quarter production of 23-26koz implies to Bell Potter a second FY25 downgrade, with full-year production now expected to reach a maximum of 85koz, down from 90koz previously and 100koz initially.

Bell Potter lowers the rating to Sell from Hold and cuts the target price to $2.30 from $2.40.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Regis Resources reported March quarter production of 89.7koz at an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of $2,445/oz, ahead of Macquarie’s expectations for both volume and cost.

Duketon delivered higher-grade output despite lower mill throughput, while Tropicana tracked in line with the broker’s estimates. Sales lagged production due to timing, with gold sold at an average $4,591/oz.

FY25 guidance of 350-380koz at a cost of $2,440-2,740/oz was maintained, with year-to-date output at 285koz (78% of guidance midpoint). 

Macquarie cuts its FY25 EPS by -12% due to lower sales, while FY26 and FY27 forecasts were unchanged. The target of $4.30 is maintained.

The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform due to recent share price strength.

Regis Resources’ March quarter production of 89,666oz at a cost (AISC) of $2,538/oz beat Bell Potter’s expectations, with production slightly ahead and costs materially below forecast.

The Duketon assets remained consistent, while Tropicana’s output declined as expected. The result supports the company’s improving track record of delivering to guidance, observes the broker.

Operating cash flow rose to $221m, up quarter-on-quarter, despite lower output, with an average realised gold price of $4,591/oz. Net cash and bullion rose to $367m, reflecting a $512m improvement over 15 months, highlight the analysts.

A record $1,539/oz in cash was added to the balance sheet per ounce produced, and following full debt repayment, Regis is expected to evaluate growth and shareholder return options.

Bell Potter increases its target price to $4.57 from $4.34 and downgrades the rating to Hold due to recent share price strength.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Sandfire Resources reported 3Q25 copper, zinc, and silver production below consensus by 5% to 8%. Motheo’s cash costs were better by 4%, while MATSA missed by -4%.

Group earnings (EBITDA) proved 14% below consensus, and cash balances also missed, though net debt of US$243m was in line.

FY25 group copper-equivalent production guidance of 154kt is unchanged, but Matsa’s cost guidance rose 5% to US$1.58/lb due to euro strength.

Macquarie lowers FY25 EPS by 4% on higher Matsa costs but lifts FY2627 EPS by 18%/7% on higher Motheo output forecasts.

The target price is increased to $10.90 from $10.80. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on valuation grounds, with the stock up 26% since early April.

See also SFR upgrade.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=205,142,180,102,237,246,169,134&h0=121,136,163,107,181,139,26,173&s0=12,30,34,42,19,29,4,29″ style=”border:1px solid #000000;”>

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