In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 13-06-25

This story features HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT, and other companies.
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The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

In the small and mid-cap REIT arena, one of the broker’s highest conviction stocks is HomeCo Daily Needs REIT.

The broker’s FY25 FFO forecast is in line with the company’s guidance, and for FY26, the analyst expects initial guidance for around 2% growth.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target rises to $1.50 from $1.38.

NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

In the small and mid-cap REIT space, National Storage REIT is among the broker’s highest conviction stocks. The analyst’s FY26 pre-tax operating EPS growth is 5.5% compared with 5.1% consensus.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight. Target lifted to $2.80 from $2.75.

Downgrade

ADRIATIC METALS PLC ((ADT)) Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity lowers its recommendation on Adriatic Metals to Hold from Speculative Buy, while raising the target price to $5.50 from $4.55, following a 40% rally in the share price. The uplift was driven by confirmed M&A interest from Dundee Precious Metals.

The broker views Dundee as a logical suitor given its nearby European operations, but notes there is no guarantee a formal offer will eventuate.

Adriatic’s ramp-up at the Vares silver project is progressing, note the analysts, with commercial production expected by the June quarter. FY25 earnings (EBITDA) are forecast at US$78.8m, rising to US$165.5m in FY26.

Canaccord removes prior risk discounts in light of strategic interest and expects positive free cash flow from 2025 onward,. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are expected to fall to US$15.85/oz and US$14.14/oz in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

The broker’s FY25 operating EPS forecast for Charter Hall Retail REIT is for a -7% y/y decline, which is in line with guidance. For FY26, the broker expects the REIT to guide to a 2-3% EPS growth.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Target lifted to $4.30 from 3.70.

DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden revisited the state of the global quick service restaurant market, noting it remains challenging and consumers are trading down mainly in the US and less so in Australia/NZ. 

In April, the trend was solid in Australia/NZ with takeaway sales beating grocery growth, but competition increased. In Europe, macro and geopolitical uncertainties continue to impact the sector, and in Japan, the trend softened in April after an improvement in 1Q.

The broker’s preference in the sector is Collins Foods ((CKF)), Guzman Y Gomez ((GYG)) and Domino’s Pizza Enterprises; in that order.

The broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -1.6% and FY26 by -4.6%, driven by Asia and Europe. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target trimmed to $37 from $39.

DEXUS ((DXS)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

The broker’s forecast for Dexus’ FY25 adjusted FFO is in line with guidance, but for FY26, the analyst is forecasting flat AFFO vs consensus for 0.3% y/y growth.

Broader office sector recovery would be a catalyst for cash earnings growth, the broker highlights, but challenges are emerging in funds management.

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral. Target trimmed to $7.10 from $7.50.

GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED ((GDG)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Petra Capital reviews its investment case for Generation Development after taking into account prospective Division 296 changes to superannuation and the recent Blackrock investment in the group’s share register.

Blackrock brings to the table proven US annuities experience and risk management systems. The tie-up is expected to strengthen Generation Development’s annuities position in the market.

Working to Generation Development’s advantage, the broker now sees potential for investment advisers to pitch Investment Bonds as an alternative asset class to superannuation.

The analyst highlights the company has gradually broadened from a long-tail defensive life insurance style business to a managed accounts/equities operation.

The target rises to $5.65 from $5.58 and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

The broker’s FY25 EPS forecast for Mirvac Group is at the top end of the guidance, and for FY26 the analyst is forecasting FFO growth of 8% on residential volume and margin recovery. Wage and general cost inflation pressures are expected to weigh.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Target lifted to $2.50 from $2.35.

ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity lowers its target price for Ora Banda Mining to $1.20 from $1.25 and downgrades to Hold from Speculative Buy following a reduction in FY25 production guidance to 95koz at a cost (AISC) of $2,606/oz.

The revisions reflect plant upgrade downtime and slower ramp-up, explains the broker, with June quarter production expected to be 24.5koz and costs (AISC) of circa $3,100/oz, though commissioning is now complete.

The broker notes mine performance remains solid and anticipates FY26 output rising to 150koz with costs (AISC) falling to around $1,932/oz, supported by contributions from Riverina and Sand King.

REGION GROUP ((RGN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

The broker’s FY25 FFO forecast is in line with guidance for Region Group. For FY26, the broker expects initial FFO guidance for around 3% growth as the earnings profile is expected to improve from capital recycling and additional hedging.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation. Target lifted to $2.60 from $2.40.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, with most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

The broker is optimistic about the residential sector but believes Stockland may disappoint with conservative guidance at the FY25 results. The analyst is forecasting 10% FFO growth in FY26, noting anything above 7-8% growth guidance would be a positive.

Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy. Target rises to $6.35 from $5.95.

WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED ((WPR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season (1H25 for Waypoint REIT) in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

The broker’s FY25 dividend forecast for Waypoint REIT is in line with the guidance. Looking ahead, the analyst sees upside risks with Viva Energy’s ((VEA)) OTR conversion in FY26.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target lifted to $2.85 from $2.70.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

BC8    BLACK CAT SYNDICATE LIMITED

Gold & Silver Overnight Price: $0.81 

Petra Capital rates ((BC8)) as Buy (1)

Petra Capital highlights Black Cat Syndicate is making good progress on its plans to accelerate mining development at open pit and underground deposits at Kal East.

The recently acquired Lakewood Mill is performing above expectations with 140kt of Myhree ore processed since March 31.

The share price underperformed its gold peers in recent months, but the broker expects a ramp-up at Paulsens and Kal East development to support share price gains.

Buy. Target unchanged at $1.82. 

This report was published on June 5, 2025.

Target price is $1.82 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $1.015
If BC8 meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 126% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.20.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.85.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIP    CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT

REITs Overnight Price: $3.20 

Jarden rates ((CIP)) as Overweight (2)

Ahead of the FY25 reporting season in August, Jarden has marked-to-market the REIT sector to account for news flow, and the latest BBSW futures curve and risk-free rates.

Overall, the broker expects upbeat messages from the REITs, most likely to guide to an accelerating NTA and FFO growth.

Centuria Industrial REIT is among the broker’s highest conviction stocks. For FY26, the broker forecasts 1.6% FFO growth, slightly ahead of 1.5% consensus.

Overweight. Target rises to $3.50 from $3.30.

This report was published on June 6, 2025.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.20 Difference: $0.3
If CIP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.30, suggesting upside of 3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.30 cents and EPS of 17.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.6, implying annual growth of 132.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 16.60 cents and EPS of 17.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.9, implying annual growth of 1.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three source

CU6    CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices Overnight Price: $2.39 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CU6)) as Buy (1)

Canaccord Genuity highlights a positive topline readout from Clarity Pharmaceuticals’ Phase II Disco trial in GEP-NETs. 64Cu-Sartate is demonstrating 93-95% sensitivity in confirmed lesions, compared to just 5-7% 68Ga-Dotatate (NETSPOT), owned by Novartis.

The broker sees the results as a significant validation of Clarity’s copper-based platform, noting the superior image clarity linked to improved chelation technology and reduced copper leakage.

While GEP-NETs is not viewed as a large commercial opportunity, the outcome bolsters confidence in broader applications, suggest the analysts. This is particularly the case prior to a head-to-head prostate cancer diagnostic readout expected in 3Q25.

Canaccord  retains a Buy rating and a $6.74 target price.

This report was published on June 5, 2025.

Target price is $6.74 Current Price is $2.39 Difference: $4.35
If CU6 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 182% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 15.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.22.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 23.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 10.30.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals Overnight Price: $4.17 

Petra Capital rates ((IPX)) as Buy (1)

“This isn’t just a contract, it’s the start of a structural shift in US titanium markets” trumpets Petra Capital.

The broker describes Iperionx as having achieved a transformational milestone after securing a US$99m SBIR Phase III contract from the US Department of Defense (DoD).

This validates the company’s titanium technologies, according to the broker, and positions it as a sole-source supplier within the federal procurement system.

The contract materially de-risks near-term revenues, in the analyst’s view, boosting commercial visibility, and laying the foundation for expansion into aerospace, oil & gas, and industrial markets. Potential also exists for follow-on contracts beyond the initial DoD task orders.

The broker’s target rises to $8.21 from $6.95, reflecting improved confidence in execution and scaling. FY26-FY27 revenue forecasts were revised down due to lower pricing assumptions and a strategic decision to prioritise market share over margins.

The Buy rating is maintained.

This report was published on June 6, 2025.

Target price is $8.21 Current Price is $4.17 Difference: $4.04
If IPX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 97% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 181.30.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 130.31.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MVF    MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED

Healthcare services Overnight Price: $0.61 

Wilsons rates ((MVF)) as Overweight (1)

The analysts at Wilsons express concern over reputational risk for Monash IVF following a second embryo transfer error, this time at its Clayton laboratory, disclosed in June 2025. (Indeed, Chief Executive Michael Knaap has since resigned).

The broker highlights the close timing of this incident with a prior Brisbane clinic error could weigh on short-term Australian market share, despite management’s assurance the two events occurred years apart.

The company has launched an internal investigation, extended the scope of an existing independent review, notified ART regulators, and will temporarily enhance verification procedures beyond standard practice.

The broker notes FY25 guidance for underlying profit of circa $27.5m remains unchanged, and insurance coverage is expected to mitigate financial impact.

Wilsons makes no changes to financial forecasts but places its Overweight rating and $1.25 target under review.

This report was published on June 12, 2025.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.61 Difference: $0.64
If MVF meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 105% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.13, suggesting upside of 70.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.80 cents and EPS of 6.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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