Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 01-05-20

This story features EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APE

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 27 to Friday May 1, 2020
Total Upgrades: 20
Total Downgrades: 17
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 49.45%; Hold 41.67%; Sell 8.87%

The final week of April saw the continuation of market optimism, quickly followed up with a severe sell-off on the May 1st Friday for the first weekly stand-still in a while.

By then, stockbroking analysts had already responded by issuing more upgrades in recommendations for individual ASX-listed stocks. FNArena counted 20 upgrades versus 17 downgrades for the week.

Stocks popular among the upgrades were Charter Hall Retail REIT and supermarket operator Coles with both receiving two upgrades while the rest of the field is made up predominantly of share market laggards, including banks and property developers and owners.

In an illustration of just how tricky this market can be, and of opposing views and forces that reign in it, the table of downgrades for the week equally includes banks and property related exposures, this time accompanied by various gold producers. It's probably fitting then that Regis Resources is the sole recipient of two downgrades for the week.

The week's overview for positive revisions is populated by resource companies, and that guarantees some hefty numbers on show. Evolution Mining takes the week's honours, followed by Fortescue Metals and Northern Star Resources.

On the flip side, we find larger reductions on average, with Lendlease's price target taking the biggest hit, followed by AP Eagers, Carsales and Alumina Ltd.

Investors will be pleased to know the week equally saw some hefty increases to earnings estimates. The largest increase was reserved for QBE Insurance, followed by Premier Investments, Alacer Gold, and Regis Resources. The top ten shows noticeable increases for all companies included.

However, in line with the times, the week's top ten for decreases to profit forecasts shows how it is done properly with far, far, far bigger reductions for the likes of oOh!media, Coronado Global Resources, AP Eagers, and Pilbara Minerals.

One of the key reasons as to why many an expert believes the share market cannot continue its rally in May is because analysts will continue reducing forecasts and thus valuations and price targets, and this will provide a reality check for too optimistic sentiment that has driven quite the sizeable rally off the March sell-off bottom (25%).

Expect more of the same in the week(s) ahead, except probably without the day-to-day uptrend for share market indices.

Upgrade

AP EAGERS LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/0

AP Eagers has reduced its workforce, applied for JobKeeper, been granted rental relief and has deferred all non-essential capex, Morgans notes. Importantly, the company has secured additional working capital facilities, taking its liquidity to $392m, greater than the broker previously assumed.

The outlook for new car sales at this point is not worth considering, but AP Eagers' liquidity position, experienced management and exposure to whenever there may be a rebound has Morgans upgrading to Add from Hold, noting patience will be required. Target falls to $7.30 from $8.92.

BRICKWORKS LIMITED ((BKW)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Citi assesses sales should be well supported through to the December quarter because of solid building approvals up until February 2020. However, housing demand is slowing and this could affect construction in early 2021.

Despite the cyclical slowdown in residential demand the dividend is likely to be maintained as cash flow is stable from the property trust and investment income, the broker points out.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target reduced to $14.20 from $21.00.

CARSALES.COM LIMITED ((CAR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0

The company has indicated leads have started to show signs of improvement recently, while traffic and inventory are solid. The South Korean business has also held up well although conditions are deteriorating in Brazil.

While the business is not immune to the current situation, Carsales.com is a critical channel for dealers, private sellers and original equipment manufacturers, the broker points out.

Therefore, Ord Minnett expects the business will rebound well following the crisis and upgrades to Buy from Hold. Target is reduced to $15.72 from $18.98.

CREDIT CORP GROUP LIMITED ((CCP)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Credit Corp has raised $120m to increase capacity on the balance sheet. In the absence of an acquisition, Morgans expects the company will have no debt by December 2020.

There are still risks to earnings for the short term but the broker assesses the business is a strong contender for capital deployment in potential industry consolidation over the next two years.

Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target raised to $18.50 from $17.70.

CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Centuria Office REIT, the only pure-play office REIT on the ASX, has withdrawn FY20 funds from operations guidance, but retained dividend guidance of 17.8c.

Uncertainty stems from the government's Code of Conduct with regard rents and a tougher outlook for leasing markets ahead, Morgans notes.

That said, the broker believes the stock has been oversold and upgrades to Add from Hold. Target falls $2.33 from $2.98.

COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi and Upgrade to Hold from Reduce by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/2/0

The main take-out from Coles quarterly update for Citi is a -30% drop in sales in April compared to March, as pantry hoarding swings to de-stocking. However the broker does see sales growth improving from this level given April this year included none of the usual Easter/Anzac Day buying spree and as cooking at home settles in to be more popular than it was previously.

The offset will be falling food inflation and lower household spending from those on reduced incomes. Lower petrol volumes have hit earnings, but these will improve as restrictions are eased. Put it all together, and the broker cuts its target by -1% to $17.40 but upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

Strong growth in sales across all divisions occurred in the March quarter. However, this has come with extra costs which Morgans expects to remain elevated for the remainder of FY20.

Still, supermarkets and liquor sales will benefit from social gathering restrictions and Morgans assesses Coles is a very defensive business.

Now the stock is closer to fair value the rating is upgraded to Hold from Reduce. Target is raised to $15.20 from $14.72.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Credit Suisse believes the company's $275m capital raising should address any market concerns about gearing. The issue is dilutive to earnings by around -20% but pro forma gearing reduces to 22.6% from 32.1%.

Amid uncertainty over how long the pandemic will affect trade, the broker suggests the extra liquidity means there is less of a risk of being squeezed by banks, although there could be a debate over whether the capital was raised too early.

The company still intends to pay a second half distribution so a part of this raising will be paid back to investors, Credit Suisse points out. Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target is reduced to $3.32 from $4.70.

The company has announced a $275m institutional placement along with the unit holder purchase plan of up to $25m. Citi considers the heavy discount quite unfavourable.

The broker was surprised that asset sales were not considered as a more viable option.

Citi upgrades to Neutral from Sell on valuation but believes that raising highlights the income and asset value problems facing retail landlords. Target is reduced to $2.99 from $3.76.

DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((DHG)) Upgrade to Hold from Reduce by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Domain Holdings is preparing for a tougher environment, Morgans notes, moving to a second round of cost reductions and increasing credit lines.

The company's print publications were suspended two weeks ago and will likely remain so until at least September. Digital performed well in March, but from thereon the outlook is unclear.

The broker has cut its target to $2.46 from $2.54 but upgraded to Hold from Reduce, believing investors will have a chance to buy in at a lower level ahead.

DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/2

Morgans assesses the trading update was "reasonable". Franchisee support is likely to step up as Domino's Pizza helps individual stores and regions where the sales performance has been affected by the pandemic.

This is likely to affect margins in the short term but the broker considers underpinning franchises is the right move. The balance sheet is robust and medium-term targets were reiterated.

Morgans believes earnings can remain reasonably defensive throughout the crisis and bounce back quickly afterwards. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target reduced to $55.57 from $57.19.

GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Subsequent to the first quarter update, Credit Suisse cuts estimates by -13.3% for FY20 and -10.2% for FY21 and lowers the target to $4.56 from $6.15.

Revaluations of the entire GWOF/GWSCF portfolios resulted in -2% and -11% declines in book value. This was driven, as commentary suggests, by lower rental assumptions rather than a softening of capitalisation rates.

Credit Suisse assesses the market continues to discount GPT because of its retail exposure but this is excessive. The broker remains of the view that the capital position provides a bulwark against an economic downturn and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral.

HOTEL PROPERTY INVESTMENTS ((HPI)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett expects 2020 rents to be severely affected by the pandemic and then stabilise in 2021, albeit below 2019 levels.

A-REITs are far more focused on cash flow and balance sheet preservation than short-term distributions, hence the broker expects deferred rent earnings will be retained.

The broker upgrades Hotel Property Investments to Accumulate from Hold. Target is raised to $2.70 from $2.50.

LENDLEASE GROUP ((LLC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Lendlease has raised up to $1.15bn. UBS assesses the proceeds will be used to strengthen the balance sheet and also allow the company to take a larger share in development pipeline/profits and acquire opportunistically.

Given the improved funding position UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral. The broker now assesses there is sufficient capital to withstand negative scenarios. Target is reduced to $15.50 from $18.00.

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Following share price weakness and post the equity raising, Ord Minnett upgrades back to Accumulate from Hold.

The main issue is the extent to which the independent supermarkets retain customers from increased visits because of stock availability and proximity to customers.

While a local and regional skew has its advantages, the broker notes online growth from Coles ((COL)) and Woolworths ((WOW)) could moderate recent strength.

This, ultimately, is expected to be determined by the quality of the individual retailer, and variance is wide. Target is $3.

NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED ((NAB)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

National Australia Bank has released first half results earlier than scheduled and launched a capital raising. The placement price implies more damage than Morgans had expected.

Still, the broker considers it a positive for valuation in that the bank expects to continue paying dividends. Rating is upgraded to Add from Hold and the target is reduced to $16.50 from $17.00.

NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/5/0

The flattening of the curve of the pandemic is better than expected and suggests to Credit Suisse that its initial take on nib Holdings in this regard was too pessimistic.

The broker continues to view the lack of claims in the core insurance business while in shutdown as more of a timing change rather than a large profit uplift.

FY20 underlying operating profit estimates are increased by 7%. Following the recent underperformance of the share price the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is $4.90.

ORICA LIMITED ((ORI)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/5/0

Macquarie assesses Orica's production-related earnings have proven to be relatively defensive in the past and, while there is likely to be short-term effects of the pandemic, the business has cyclical leverage globally to a recovery.

Burrup is on track to start up and the balance sheet is solid. Macquarie upgrades to Outperform from Neutral and reduces the target to $21.51 from $23.25. Orica reports its first half result on May 8.

PEOPLE INFRASTRUCTURE LTD ((PPE)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

People Infrastructure has announced a $17.5m capital raising. The company has also indicated revenue and operating earnings (EBITDA) were up 44% and 53% respectively in the year to February.

Since the coronavirus crisis spread the company has experienced disruption across several aspects of the business but this has not been widespread.

Disability, mining and food processing have proven resilient while IT and childcare volumes are depressed. There is also some disruption to nursing but this is expected to be short lived.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Accumulate and reduces the target to $2.49 from $4.05.

QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Citi upgrades to Buy/High Risk from Sell and reduces the target to $2.75 from $2.80, assessing the de-risked balance sheet provides scope for a strategic accretive acquisition and cost controls that will generate value for shareholders.

Operating weakness is likely in FY20-21 that may weigh on growth. The broker does not envisage scope for port volumes to improve prior to the second quarter of FY21.

Downgrade

ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED ((ABC)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Since the withdrawal of guidance early in April, Adelaide Brighton's share price has risen 32%, to be within 5% of Morgans unchanged $2.85 target. Hence the broker pulls back to Hold from Add.

The broker nevertheless highlights a strong balance sheet, a favourable concentration of exposure domestically, with Australia containing the virus, and the potential for government stimulus for construction alongside low interest rates.

ALUMINA LIMITED ((AWC)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, which hits bulk commodity stocks hard, Macquarie downgrades Alumina Ltd to Underperform from Neutral.

Target is reduced to $1.40 from $1.50. The changes drive reductions to 2020 and 2021 forecasts of -13% and -9% respectively.

CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST ((CDP)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Ord Minnett expects 2020 rents to be severely affected by the pandemic and then stabilise in 2021, albeit below 2019 levels.

A-REITs are far more focused on cash flow and balance sheet preservation than short-term distributions, hence the broker expects deferred rent earnings will be retained.

Carindale Property is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target is lowered to $3.50 from $3.60.

EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Evolution Mining appears confident that June quarter will deliver higher production and Credit Suisse considers it on track to attain FY20 guidance. Free cash flow appears strong and superior to peers.

There is also no material disruption from the pandemic to date. Rating is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform on the back of the broker's gold price deck. Target is raised to $4.85 from $4.60.

ALE PROPERTY GROUP ((LEP)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Ord Minnett expects 2020 rents to be severely affected by the pandemic and then stabilise in 2021, albeit below 2019 levels.

A-REITs are far more focused on cash flow and balance sheet preservation than short-term distributions, hence the broker expects deferred rent earnings will be retained.

ALE Property is downgraded to Lighten from Hold and the target lowered to $3.80 from $4.00.

MIDWAY LIMITED ((MWY)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Midway now expects FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) of $10-14m, which reflects a -27-52% downgrade from consensus estimates last reaffirmed in late March.

The company has cited a deterioration in export demand driven by the impact of the pandemic in key export markets.

Ord Minnett now expects pricing and volumes will be more difficult into FY21 as the disruption plays out.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target reduced to $1.12 from $2.07.

NEWCREST MINING LIMITED ((NCM)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/2

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral. Target is steady at $23.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/1

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, which hits bulk commodity stocks hard, Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

New Hope's target is reduced to $1.30 from $1.50. Forecasts for FY20 are cut -15% and FY21 -39%.

The broker notes downside risk to earnings forecasts for coal miners remains significant, despite the reduction to the near-term outlook. Earnings for New Hope swing from profit to loss under a spot price scenario in FY21.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LTD ((NST)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/4/1

Northern Star's March quarter result fell short of Macquarie, with gold production -9% lower and costs 10% higher. Pogo was impacted by virus protocols, although grades improved. Mill shutdowns at Jundee and Super Pit compounded the issue.

The company is expecting improvement in the June quarter, but on a weaker production and earnings outlook for FY21-22, the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $14.00 from $15.00.

ORORA LIMITED ((ORA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Orora has completed the sale of its fibre business to Nippon Paper. Credit Suisse assumes distributions of $750m by way of a special dividend.

The broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform as the rally in the share price has closed out much of the available return, in its assessment. Target is $2.15.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/3/0

Perseus Mining's March quarter was weak, with production -20% and costs 20% higher than forecast. Recoveries of only 61% at Edikan was the prime source of softness, Macquarie notes. The company has withdrawn second half guidance.

Recoveries at Edikan and virus management are the key risks in the near term, the broker suggests. Yaoure nevertheless remains on track, but the broker has cut its target to $1.20 from $1.30 and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/4/0

March quarter production was -11% below Ord Minnett's estimates. Improvement is expected in the June quarter as first underground ore from Rosemont is delivered.

The broker observes a clear strategy is emerging which, while incremental, presents upside to valuation.

The stock is now trading at a slight premium to the target and the rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is reduced to $4.20 from $4.30.

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $4.60 from $3.90.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

ST BARBARA LIMITED ((SBM)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $2.60 from $2.30.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

SILVER LAKE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SLR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Amid changes to exchange rate forecasts, Macquarie downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is raised to $2.10 from $1.80.

The outlook for the AUD/USD has been tempered because of the rapid and extremely aggressive response by the US Fed to current economic circumstances.

Should Macquarie's expectations for a materially weaker US dollar eventuate, physical gold is expected to strengthen and gold equities continue to outperform the US dollar gold price.

TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((TAH)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Credit Suisse downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. The share price has rallied 45% since the trough and is now approaching the broker's target. Target is $3.20.

An equity issue is also included in forecasts in the near future as Credit Suisse suspects the board will come to realise that the balance sheet is not as well prepared for the disruption as it may have thought. However, this has a minimal effect on valuation.

WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION ((WBC)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/3/1

Ord Minnett believes Westpac is facing heightened pressure to address its potentially tight capital position. The broker suggests Westpac runs the risk of being left at a material deficit to peers on capital.

While having only recently upgraded to Accumulate on valuation grounds, the additional uncertainty around capital makes the broker wary. As a result the rating is downgraded back to Hold and the target lowered to $16 from $18.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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