Australia | Aug 05 2013
This story features DEXUS, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DXS
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stock brokers: BA-Merrill Lynch, CIMB, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Macquarie and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday July 29 to Friday August 2
Total Upgrades: 9
Total Downgrades: 24
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 38.48%; Hold 44.35%; Sell 17.17%
Changes in stockbroker ratings for individually listed stocks in Australia continue to be dominated by downgrades. The week past saw 24 downgrades (again) significantly outperforming a total of 9 upgrades for the week. Investors can find solace in the fact that the previous week recorded 42 downgrades and only 6 upgrades. So things are improving (ahem), albeit slowly.
The general theme amongst the upgrades seems to be relative underpricing for certain stocks. Westpac stands out as a temporary buy on a short term horizon and relative to the rest of the sector (opposite CommBank) while brokers have become more upbeat on small caps Bigair and WDS.
Among the downgrades, small cap resources stocks continue to trigger a true flood in downgrades. This time most downgrades are caused by non-exciting prospects (say the analysts) and recovering share prices, which may give investors an indication about the risks that are still very much present in this part of the share market. Otherwise the recipe is pretty well known by now: some of the perennial outperformers simply become a bit overstretched at some point and last week it was Amcor's turn to receive downgrades. And CommBank. And Computershare.
Probably the most intriguing downgrades were for the insurance sector with Deutsche Bank predicting this sector still has one more good year in it and then the worm will turn for the worse. No doubt something that will be closely watch here and there.
Little surprise, these same companies also dominate the tables for changes made to targets and earnings estimates. Smaller resources companies dominate both estimates going up and going down, as is their wont.
Upgrades
Bigair ((BGL)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by CIMB. B/H/S: 1/0/0
CIMB's confidence in Bigair's growth outlook has further improved as the stockbroker believes the company's community broadband business is set to return to growth. The weaker AUD is attracting more international students into Australia and this further supports the growth outlook for community services and for Bigair in general. Price target increased to $0.64.
Dexus Property Group ((DXS)) upgraded to Hold from Sell by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 5/2/0
Deutsche Bank can see the benefits in the potential acquisition of Commonwealth Property Office ((CPA)), but above all the share price has now retreated to near the stockbroker's valuation and price target of $1.06 which triggered the upgrade to Hold.
Flight Centre ((FLT)) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 5/3/0
Macquarie's upgrade to Outperform is essentially a signal to the many shorters that they will be proven wrong as Flight Centre's international operations are booming. The stockbroker's new target of $53.16 suggests there's plenty of upside ahead.
Leighton Holdings ((LEI)) upgraded to Hold from Sell by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 0/3/5
Deutsche Bank's upgrade is a valuation call. Expectations for the company in the three years ahead remain low, but the stodckbroker believes this has now been all but priced in.
ResMed ((RMD)) upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS. B/H/S: 4/4/0
UBS believes ResMed will be able to largely withstand the pressures from more competitive bidding processes in the US. On this basis, the rating has been lifted to Buy from Neutral. The price target was raised to US$50.50 from US$49.77.
Stockland ((SGP)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 4/1/2
Deutsche Bank believes Stockland offers the most attractive growth profile in the sector for the coming three years. On this basis the rating has been lifted to Buy from Hold.
Telstra ((TLS)) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform by CIMB. B/H/S: 1/6/1
CIMB's upgrade looks a bit contradictory as the stockbroker used the opportunity to emphasise the risks have actually increased due to more expected delays for the NBN-roll out. But better industry dynamics for the mobile operations are currently providing enough offset, argues CIMB. The stockbroker has penciled in dividend increases to 29c next year and further to 30c in FY15. Enough for an upgrade to Neutral.
Transurban ((TCL)) upgraded to Buy from Neutral by BA-Merrill Lynch. B/H/S: 3/3/1
The stockbroker believes the growth prospects for Transurban are improving. In a sector where many others will still look challenged in their growth aspirations, BA-ML predicts Transurban is poised to stand out in a positive manner. Hence the upgrade to Buy from Neutral.
Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE) upgraded to Neutral from Sell by Citi. B/H/S: 2/1/5
The broker suggests investors may have overlooked that the Americas business will benefit from a growing shortage of US wine grapes and Australia will continue to benefit from Treasury Wine's pricing power. Hence the target price is raised to $5.30 from $4.20 and the rating is upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
Westpac ((WBC)) upgraded to Buy from Hold by Deutsche Bank and to Overweight from Underweight by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 4/3/1
History suggests, reports Deutsche Bank, that Westpac shares shall outperform Commonwealth Bank shares in the two months after the CBA result. This is a short term view as the stockbroker remains of the view that longer term Westpac faces headwinds which are expected to translate into an inferior growth profile for Westpac vis-a-vis CommBank. JP Morgan upgraded for exact the same reason/expectation.
WDS ((WDS)) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 2/0/0
Prospects for WDS look good, argues JP Morgan, with the company seen as well-placed to deliver growth in the next two years ahead. This explains the upgrade to Overweight from Neutral.The price target has lifted to 51c from 42c.
Downgrades
Alacer Gold ((AQG)) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 3/1/2
Alacer Gold's market update proved rather disappointing and most stockbrokers have responded by cutting forecasts and valuations. Both Macquarie and UBS also lowered their ratings. The intended sale of the Australian gold mines can still turn into a positive catalyst, brokers say. Apart from this, it would appear growth prospects at Copler in Turkey have now taken a big hit. Price targets have come tumbling down.
Amcor ((AMC)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by both BA-ML and by CIMB. B/H/S: 2/1/5
Stockbrokers are mostly puzzled by the company's decision to spin off the Australasian operations into a separately listed business. It is hard to see how the move will deliver extra value for shareholders, is the general view. On top of this, Amcor shares are far from cheap. Pretty much everyone agrees on that observation. Note this has been one of the best performers in the share market thus far this year.
Aurora Oil and Gas ((AUT)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 3/2/1
Deutsche Bank's decision to downgrade to Hold was purely inspired by the share price which is now trading very close to the stockbroker's price target.
Beach Energy ((BPT)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 1/4/1
Credit Suisse's downgrade for Beach Energy is the result of two conflicting developments: on one hand there has been a strong rally for the shares, while on the other hand earnings prospects have dimmed somewhat. Reflecting lower FY14 production expectations and higher capex the valuation is reduced to $1.49. The target price is lowered to $1.50 from $1.60. The rating has fallen to Neutral from Outperform.
Beadell Resources ((BDR)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 3/1/0
UBS's downgrade was purely inspired by recent share price strength as the recent market update proved in line with expectations and earnings estimates have actually increased.
Clough Engineering ((CLO)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 2/2/0
The majority shareholder intends to buy out minorities to take Clough private and the share price has rallied near the value of the offer. Credit Suisse doesn't think there's any prospect for a higher bid, hence the downgrade to Neutral.
Commonwealth Bank ((CBA)) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight by JP Morgan. B/H/S: 1/2/5
The downgrade for CBA is a relative one. The shares have again outperformed the rest of the sector and JP Morgan is simply suggesting the relative gap among banking stocks is again poised to narrow.
Computershare ((CPU)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 3/4/1
Credit Suisse has noted an absence in increased M&A activity around the world and until there is a noticeable pick up, the stockbroker believes it is safer to retreat to a Neutral stance on the stock.
Evolution Mining ((EVN)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 1/5/0
Credit Suisse's downgrade was solely inspired by the recent share price strength.
Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) downgraded to Sell from Hold. B/H/S: 0/4/4
Deutsche Bank has spotted early indications that the cycle for insurers is about to take a turn for the worse. Insurers probably have another good year in front of them, argues the stockbroker. Deutsche Bank has no ambition to accurately time the exact turning point and has simply decided to act ahead of anyone else. Downgrade to Sell thus.
Kingsgate Consolidated ((KCN)) downgraded to Sell from Neutral by Citi. B/H/S: 0/0/3
Citi believes it's all too hard for a struggling gold miner such as Kingsgate. No growth on the horizon and with plenty of challenges in front of it, Citi thinks a Sell rating is most appropriate.
Newcrest Mining ((NCM)) downgraded to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 2/4/2
Earnings prospects for gold miners are not exactly improving, notwithstanding a short term bounce in the price of bullion. In the case of Newcrest, there remains limited visibility around implementation of the new strategy through FY14. Enough reason for Deutsche Bank to downgrade to Hold.
Qube Logistics ((QUB)) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie. B/H/S: 0/8/0
Macquarie is not a big fan of transport stocks right now, believing most will be hit by weak consumer and by weak business demand in Australia. The price target has fallen to $1.78 from $1.92 prior.
Resolute Mining ((RSG)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi. B/H/S: 0/1/0
Citi believes it's all too hard for struggling gold miners. Combine a less than exciting outlook with share price strength, and the result is a downgrade in rating to Neutral.
Sigma Pharmaceutical ((SIP)) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse. B/H/S: 0/4/3
Sigma has effectively issued a profit warning, even though FY14 is still expected to show some improvement on FY13. Credit Suisse has chosen to adopt a more cautious approach. In the absence of tangible signals of a pick up in sales and profitability, the rating has been pulled back to Underperform.
Suncorp ((SUN)) downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Citi and to Underperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse and to Hold from Buy by Deutsche Bank. B/H/S: 3/4/1
The prospect of a special dividend will keep the share price supported, both stockbrokers concede, but earnings prospects have declined further and there appears to be little room for yet another special dividend.
Toll Holdings ((TOL)) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie. B/H/S: 2/3/2
Macquarie is not a big fan of transport stocks right now, believing most will be hit by weak consumer and by weak business demand in Australia.
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC)) downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS. B/H/S: 5/2/1
UBS sees yet another year of losses ahead on the back of softer coal price projections. Combine this with recent share price strength and it's not difficult to see the why behind the downgrade.
Significant consensus target price and earnings forecast changes tabled below.
| Total Recommendations | Recommendation Changes |
|
Broker Recommendation Breakup | |
Broker Rating
| Order | Company | Old Rating | New Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | BIGAIR GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | CIMB Securities | |
| 2 | DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP | Sell | Neutral | Deutsche Bank | |
| 3 | FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Macquarie | |
| 4 | RESMED INC | Neutral | Buy | UBS | |
| 5 | TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | CIMB Securities | |
| 6 | TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Citi | |
| 7 | WDS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | JP Morgan | |
| 8 | WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION | Sell | Buy | JP Morgan | |
| 9 | WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION | Neutral | Buy | Deutsche Bank | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 10 | ALACER GOLD CORP | Neutral | Sell | Macquarie | |
| 11 | ALACER GOLD CORP | Buy | Neutral | UBS | |
| 12 | AMCOR LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | CIMB Securities | |
| 13 | AMCOR LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Credit Suisse | |
| 14 | AURORA OIL AND GAS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Deutsche Bank | |
| 15 | BEACH ENERGY LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Credit Suisse | |
| 16 | BEADELL RESOURCES LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | UBS | |
| 17 | CLOUGH LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Credit Suisse | |
| 18 | COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA | Buy | Sell | JP Morgan | |
| 19 | COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Credit Suisse | |
| 20 | EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Credit Suisse | |
| 21 | HORIZON OIL LIMITED | Buy | Sell | BA-Merrill Lynch | |
| 22 | INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Deutsche Bank | |
| 23 | KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Citi | |
| 24 | NEWCREST MINING LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Deutsche Bank | |
| 25 | QUBE LOGISTICS | Buy | Neutral | Macquarie | |
| 26 | RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Citi | |
| 27 | Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd | Neutral | Sell | Credit Suisse | |
| 28 | Sigma Pharmaceuticals Ltd | Buy | Neutral | Deutsche Bank | |
| 29 | SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Citi | |
| 30 | SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Credit Suisse | |
| 31 | SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Deutsche Bank | |
| 32 | TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED | Neutral | Sell | Macquarie | |
| 33 | WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | UBS | |
Recommendation
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
| Order | Symbol | Previous Rating | New Rating | Change | Recs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WBC | – 13.0% | 38.0% | 51.0% | 8 |
| 2 | NNC | 25.0% | 40.0% | 15.0% | 5 |
| 3 | DXS | 57.0% | 71.0% | 14.0% | 7 |
| 4 | FLT | 50.0% | 63.0% | 13.0% | 8 |
| 5 | RMD | 38.0% | 50.0% | 12.0% | 8 |
| 6 | TWE | – 50.0% | – 38.0% | 12.0% | 8 |
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
| Order | Symbol | Previous Rating | New Rating | Change | Recs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLO | 100.0% | 50.0% | – 50.0% | 4 |
| 2 | HZN | 75.0% | 25.0% | – 50.0% | 4 |
| 3 | AAX | 60.0% | 20.0% | – 40.0% | 5 |
| 4 | SUN | 63.0% | 25.0% | – 38.0% | 8 |
| 5 | AQG | 50.0% | 17.0% | – 33.0% | 6 |
| 6 | KCN | – 67.0% | – 100.0% | – 33.0% | 3 |
| 7 | SIP | – 14.0% | – 43.0% | – 29.0% | 7 |
| 8 | CBA | – 25.0% | – 50.0% | – 25.0% | 8 |
| 9 | BDR | 100.0% | 75.0% | – 25.0% | 4 |
| 10 | GRR | 50.0% | 25.0% | – 25.0% | 4 |
Target Price
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
| Order | Symbol | Previous Target | New Target | Change | Recs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FLT | 41.570 | 43.621 | 4.93% | 8 |
| 2 | AMC | 9.978 | 10.415 | 4.38% | 8 |
| 3 | MQG | 43.930 | 45.330 | 3.19% | 7 |
| 4 | TWE | 5.198 | 5.335 | 2.64% | 8 |
| 5 | NNC | 19.560 | 20.050 | 2.51% | 5 |
| 6 | ORG | 14.291 | 14.586 | 2.06% | 8 |
| 7 | WBC | 30.203 | 30.463 | 0.86% | 8 |
| 8 | CPU | 10.564 | 10.645 | 0.77% | 8 |
| 9 | SUN | 12.759 | 12.850 | 0.71% | 8 |
| 10 | AUT | 3.773 | 3.785 | 0.32% | 6 |
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
| Order | Symbol | Previous Target | New Target | Change | Recs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAX | 3.046 | 1.786 | – 41.37% | 5 |
| 2 | AQG | 3.525 | 3.092 | – 12.28% | 6 |
| 3 | HZN | 0.518 | 0.480 | – 7.34% | 4 |
| 4 | KCN | 1.633 | 1.533 | – 6.12% | 3 |
| 5 | OZL | 5.613 | 5.306 | – 5.47% | 8 |
| 6 | GRR | 0.245 | 0.233 | – 4.90% | 4 |
| 7 | WHC | 2.853 | 2.719 | – 4.70% | 8 |
| 8 | SIP | 0.719 | 0.690 | – 4.03% | 7 |
| 9 | EVN | 1.023 | 1.015 | – 0.78% | 6 |
| 10 | CLO | 1.403 | 1.397 | – 0.43% | 4 |
Earning Forecast
Positive Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
| Order | Symbol | Previous EF | New EF | Change | Recs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NUF | 28.175 | 38.400 | 36.29% | 8 |
| 2 | KCN | 7.867 | 9.300 | 18.22% | 3 |
| 3 | TPM | 17.678 | 19.717 | 11.53% | 6 |
| 4 | KMD | 15.624 | 17.419 | 11.49% | 3 |
| 5 | AUT | 26.726 | 28.749 | 7.57% | 6 |
| 6 | PMV | 46.966 | 50.467 | 7.45% | 6 |
| 7 | WSA | 3.063 | 3.234 | 5.58% | 7 |
| 8 | TPI | 5.300 | 5.583 | 5.34% | 6 |
| 9 | APA | 21.548 | 22.535 | 4.58% | 8 |
| 10 | IGO | 22.032 | 23.035 | 4.55% | 6 |
Negative Change Covered by > 2 Brokers
| Order | Symbol | Previous EF | New EF | Change | Recs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AAX | 30.800 | 16.340 | – 46.95% | 5 |
| 2 | WHC | 1.919 | 1.244 | – 35.17% | 8 |
| 3 | ORL | 64.712 | 44.880 | – 30.65% | 5 |
| 4 | GRR | 2.733 | 2.067 | – 24.37% | 4 |
| 5 | PNA | 18.427 | 14.031 | – 23.86% | 8 |
| 6 | EVN | 11.738 | 9.450 | – 19.49% | 6 |
| 7 | EHL | 5.733 | 5.100 | – 11.04% | 5 |
| 8 | DJS | 18.509 | 16.633 | – 10.14% | 8 |
| 9 | SIP | 4.891 | 4.424 | – 9.55% | 7 |
| 10 | NNC | 58.122 | 52.675 | – 9.37% | 5 |
Technical limitations
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMC - AMCOR PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BPT - BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CBA - COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CPU - COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DXS - DEXUS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EVN - EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FLT - FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IAG - INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: KCN - KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: QUB - QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RMD - RESMED INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RSG - RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SGP - STOCKLAND
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SUN - SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TCL - TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLS - TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WBC - WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WDS - WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED

