Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 10-04-20

This story features ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABP

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stock brokers: Citi, Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday April 6 to Friday April 10, 2020
Total Upgrades: 24
Total Downgrades: 13
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 49.96%; Hold 40.57%; Sell 9.47%

The rate of stockbroking analysts issuing upgrades in recommendations for individual ASX-listed entities is slowing, but the pendulum remains firmly in favour of more Buy (and equivalent) ratings.

For the shortened week ending on Thursday, 9th April 2020, FNArena registered 24 upgrades against 13 downgrades, with only four of the upgrades not shifting to a new Buy. Total Buy ratings for the seven stockbrokerages monitored daily now sits just under the 50%, at 49.96%, against 40.5% on Neutral/Hold and the remaining 9.4% on Sells.

Only three of the week's downgrades moved to Sell with Charter Hall Retail REIT, Otto Energy and Treasury Wine Estates the unlucky receivers.

Positive amendments to valuations and price targets remain few and far between, with only St Barbara, NextDC and Coles Group worth mentioning. It goes without saying, in the current climate of a global pandemic and the deepest recession since the Great Depression unfolding, many more and deeper reductions to price targets are taking place.

Biggest loser for the week is Webjet (capital raising), followed by Flight Centre (capital raising), Arena REIT and Stockland. All ten stocks in the week's top ten for negative adjustments suffered by double digit percentage.

In contrast, the week's top ten nominations for positive revisions to earnings forecasts show big movements with Audinate on the week's top position, followed by National Storage REIT, Whitehaven Coal, and -believe it or not- Qantas.

Of course, negative changes made to forecasts remain multiple times larger. Here the biggest loser for the week is Flight Centre, followed by Webjet, then Oil Search, IDP Education, Sydney Airport and QBE Insurance. With the latter announcing a capital raising on Tuesday (this morning) this stock is likely to feature next week as well.

It'll be interesting to note when the above trends, all well-established, come to an end in Australia. My hunch is it won't be soon (though things might start slowing down).

Upgrade

ABACUS PROPERTY GROUP ((ABP)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

Abacus Property is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target is lowered to $2.70 from $3.30.

ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Macquarie observes government policy has tilted to support the sector and the valuation is attractive. Childcare operators will receive a subsidy if services are kept open and not charged. The funding will apply from April 6.

While downside risks may exist for commercial leases in the broader sense, Macquarie believes any regulatory headwinds will be directed towards financially-distressed tenants.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $2.45 from $3.20.

AUSNET SERVICES ((AST)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Macquarie considers the valuation compelling, although growth may be limited in the current transmission investment phase.

The industry has limited direct sensitivity to the pandemic and the stock is seen as defensive with a sustainable dividend.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral and the target lowered to $1.87 from $1.90.

BHP GROUP ((BHP)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Credit Suisse believes this is a rare opportunity to buy BHP Group and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. The company has a portfolio of large projects in attractive markets.

As BHP looks to exit the thermal coal business, Credit Suisse expects proceeds will be handed over to shareholders as no further de-leveraging is required.

Even in more extreme downside scenarios, no pressure on the balance sheet and dividend is expected over the next 12 months. Target is reduced to $39 from $41.

CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST ((CDP)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

Carindale Property is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is reduced to $3.60 from $5.20.

COLES GROUP LIMITED ((COL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/2/1

Morgan Stanley is more confident in the improved top-line prospects of supermarkets. Medium-term support is predicated on a view that the current disruption (panic buying) will be followed by a broader recession.

This should be supportive of the supermarkets' share of consumption. Coles is considered best placed to weather the disruption and its lower PE and higher pay-out ratio are likely to be increasingly attractive, in the broker's view.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Underweight and the target raised to $17.75 from $14.50. Industry view: Cautious.

COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/1

The company has downgraded FY20 and FY21 guidance by further -5% and -3% respectively. Macquarie incorporates a further -11% downside to margin income in FY21.

Despite this, the broker believes the stock is beginning to show signs of value and upgrades to Neutral from Underperform. Target is reduced to $10.90 from $12.13.

DOWNER EDI LIMITED ((DOW)) Upgrade to Outperform from Underperform by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Credit Suisse expects Spotless will breach its debt covenants by the end of the year. Downer EDI is expected to remain within its debt covenants.

The broker suspects the company can survive the current crisis without a capital raising but would not rule one out.

Spotless is expected to be severely impacted for up to 6 months because of restrictions on public events.

Most of costs in the business are labour and the company is likely to cut costs by standing down staff.

Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Underperform. Target is reduced to $4.00 from $6.80.

FLIGHT CENTRE LIMITED ((FLT)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Flight Centre has raised $700m in new capital, increasing shares on issue by 96%. Morgans' earnings per share forecasts fall -248% and -153% in FY20-21. Large losses are expected in FY20 and FY21, before a recovery in FY22-23.

The broker now believes the company has enough capital to weather the storm. Looking forward to normalised earnings in FY22-23, the broker sees an attractive valuation. Upgrade to Add from Hold. Target falls to $13.00 from $20.98.

GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA ((GOZ)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

The broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and reduces the target to $3.00 from $3.65.

GPT GROUP ((GPT)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

GPT is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target is reduced to $4.30 from $5.80.

JB HI-FI LIMITED ((JBH)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/3/0

UBS expects the current crisis to have a significant drag on the housing sector, characterised by falling house prices, a slowdown in completions and a drop in turnover.

This is likely to be a headwind to household goods sales in FY21. Nevertheless, retailers such as JB Hi-Fi are envisaged having significant capacity to withstand the downturn.

UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral and believes the market is not factoring in the potential for market consolidation once the pandemic is over. Target is reduced to $39.70 from $43.00.

ALE PROPERTY GROUP ((LEP)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Hold from Lighten and reduces the target to $4.00 from $4.10.

MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

Mirvac is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. The target is reduced to $2.40 from $2.90.

MEGAPORT LIMITED ((MP1)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/0

The company has delivered the acceleration UBS was looking for in the second quarter result. The broker is a strong believer in the long-term structural shift to the cloud.

Moreover, the current period of self-isolation could accelerate the uptake of the cloud and multi-cloud services.

UBS expects a maiden quarterly positive operating earnings result in the fourth quarter of FY21, which is likely to be a major turning point for the business.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral and the target raised to $11.90 from $11.75.

OIL SEARCH LIMITED ((OSH)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett and Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Oil Search has raised US$700m to address concerns over the balance sheet. Ord Minnett considers this prudent, although the unfortunate consequence of the drop in oil prices is that the company has raised up to 36% of its market capitalisation at a price well below valuation.

Still, the assets remain of high quality and there is corporate appeal. Hence, the broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $3.50.

Morgans does not find the capital raising surprising, given the pressure on some of the company's debt, where a key interest covenant would be tested by the end of the year.

This should now be a significant liquidity buffer for the next couple of years, even if oil prices are depressed. However, what this does not do is supply the company with adequate capital resources to support the development of its growth projects in Alaska and PNG.

Nevertheless, given the improvement in the risk profile and the extent of recent weakness in the share price, the broker upgrades to Add from Hold. Target is raised to $3.53 from $3.16.

REECE LIMITED ((REH)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Reece has announced a $600m equity raising to reduce net debt and improve liquidity, and provide some optionality for growth, Citi notes. The broker sees the move as logical, but has slashed earnings forecasts to reflect subsequent dilution and lower revenue in the new construction market.

At the moment, sales both domestically and in the US are holding up well, management noted, but risk is dependent on the duration of the shutdown. Target falls to $8.85 from $10.50. Upgrade to Neutral from Sell.

See also REH downgrade.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

Stockland is upgraded to Accumulate from Lighten and the target reduced to $3.10 from $3.90.

SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LTD ((SIQ)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Credit Suisse .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Credit Suisse suggests SmartGroup is the type of stock where equity market dislocation provides an opportunity.

There is a material revenue stream that is very defensive – salary packaging – and the business is light on capital requirements.

The broker assesses the valuation is compelling on a 12-month view and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral. Target is reduced to $5.90 from $7.25.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 5/1/0

The stock has sold off along with the broader energy market but Morgan Stanley suspects Santos is on firm ground, given its actions since 2016.

The company has the balance sheet to withstand a number of years of very low oil prices and has growth options in its assets.

The broker is looking to position in companies that can handle depressed prices over the medium term in case it takes longer for oil to recover.

Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal -weighted and the target raised to $5.00 from $4.25. Cautious industry view.

SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED ((SUN)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Ord Minnett expects the general insurance business could benefit from reduced claims in motor vehicles, offset partially by possible landlord insurance claims.

The broker expects the banking division will suffer from margin pressures and a rise in bad debts, although this will be less than for the major banks.

The broker reviews earnings forecasts and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold as a result. Target is reduced to $12.83 from $13.41.

VICINITY CENTRES ((VCX)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

The broker's analysis suggests impairments of around -30% are likely for retail malls.

Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lowered to $1.50 from $1.85.

WEBJET LIMITED ((WEB)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/2/0

The company has recapitalised, raising around $346m, which results in a -150% dilution. Morgan Stanley notes unusual events and the lack of a buffer have led to significant value dilution.

Morgan Stanley reduces FY20 earnings estimates by -93% and FY21 by -84%. The broker does not have a conviction on earnings in order to maintain a strong view on the valuation.

Rating is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight, largely because of the improved liquidity and minimal visibility on earnings. The market is expected to look through the FY20 and FY21 results.

Target is reduced to $2.50 from $10.00. Industry View is In-Line.

Downgrade

CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

The broker's analysis suggests impairments of around -5% are likely for neighbourhood centres, long WALE and industrial assets.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target lowered to $3.90 from $5.10.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/2

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

The broker's analysis suggests impairments of around -5% are likely for neighbourhood centres, long WALE and industrial assets and up to -30% for retail malls.

The broker downgrades to Lighten from Hold and reduces the target to $2.60 from $4.00.

DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP ((DXS)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

The broker's analysis suggests impairments of around -15-25% for office assets.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate and the target lowered to $8.50 from $12.40.

METCASH LIMITED ((MTS)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Morgan Stanley is more confident in the improved top-line prospects of supermarkets. Medium-term support is predicated on a view that the current disruption (panic buying) will be followed by a broader recession.

This should be supportive of the supermarkets' share of consumption. Morgan Stanley downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight as the stock has materially outperformed peers.

Industry view: Cautious. Target is reduced to $2.90 from $2.95.

NAVIGATOR GLOBAL INVESTMENTS LIMITED ((NGI)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Given underperformance in the March quarter, Navigator Global Investments is unable to accurately predict how this might impact assets under management flows and revenues and as such has withdrawn FY20 guidance.

Until the level of outflows is clear, the outlook for the fund manager is uncertain, Macquarie warns. Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform. Target falls to $1.72 from $3.36.

The quarterly performance was below Ord Minnett's expectations. Multi-strategy funds were the main source of disappointment, down -18% in the March quarter.

Navigator Global has withdrawn FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) guidance.

Ord Minnett downgrades to Hold from Buy and lowers the target to $1.70 from $3.90. The broker prefers to sit on the sidelines to observe how Lighthouse Partners weathers the current crisis.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Macquarie has marked to market for March quarter bulk commodity prices and incorporated provisional pricing adjustments. Recent strong share price moves have eroded value upside.

The broker retains a preference for iron ore miners on significant FY22 earnings upside at current spot prices. Recent declines in alumina and coal prices have increased downside risk for relevant miners.

New Hope Corp downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, target unchanged at $1.50.

NEXTDC LIMITED ((NXT)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

NextDC has announced a $672 capital raising at $7.80 to accelerate current fit-outs for third generation data centres in Sydney and Melbourne. The raising will ensure the balance sheet is in good shape, Morgans notes.

Target is slightly reduced to $8.56 from $8.73 to account for a higher share-count but the raising significantly de-risks the stock and broker views the medium term outlook as positive. So does the market, hence following a strong share price run Morgans pulls back to Hold from Add.

OTTO ENERGY LIMITED ((OEL)) Downgrade to Reduce from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/0/1

The company's risk profile has greatly increased, Morgans assesses, given the unprecedented conditions. The company is seeking to raise $17.5m, more than its current market capitalisation, to try and put its balance sheet back on firmer ground.

If the current conditions persist, the broker finds little earnings potential over the remainder of 2020 and 2021.

While the broker is positive about the portfolio, the pressure on the balance sheet and the major headwinds for oil have affected confidence. Rating is downgraded to Reduce from Add and the target lowered to 0.4c from 5.5c.

REECE LIMITED ((REH)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Shutdowns are likely to put significant pressure on underlying demand for Reece products and thus revenue generation over FY20-21, Morgans warns. This will likely lead to reduced growth plans. The company will keep its stores open for essential water and sanitation product supply.

Current uncertainty and high gearing see Morgans pull back to Hold from Add, while still highlighting the longer term potential of the business. Target falls to $10.16 from $12.84.

See also REH upgrade.

SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/2

Ord Minnett notes, since the pandemic has affected markets, A-REITs have fallen -40% while the S&P ASX 200 index has declined -27%.

As a result, the broker makes changes to recommendations for around half of its coverage.

December 2019 book values are expected to be impaired for all property sectors over the next 12-18 months, from revised cash flow and growth assumptions and higher capitalisation rates.

The broker's analysis suggests impairments of around -30% are likely for retail malls.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target is lowered to $1.90 from $2.50.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/5/1

Treasury Wine Estates has warned of difficult trading conditions in the US and China and proposed the spin-off its jewel in the crown, Penfolds.

Macquarie notes diversified alcohol brands tend to trade at a premium to individual brands. Penfolds has strong appeal but value in the rump of Treasury Wines would be diminished, the broker suggests.

A spin-off would result in negative cost synergies and a likely rise in the cost of debt. Macquarie downgrades to Underperform from Neutral, with risks to the downside. Target falls to $9.50 from $9.90.

WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Macquarie has marked to market for March quarter bulk commodity prices and incorporated provisional pricing adjustments. Recent strong share price moves have eroded value upside.

The broker retains a preference for iron ore miners on significant FY22 earnings upside at current spot prices. Recent declines in alumina and coal prices have increased downside risk for relevant miners.

Whitehaven Coal downgraded to Neutral from Outperform, target rises to $2.10 from $1.90.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

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