Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Mar 20, 2023

This story features ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ANZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ANZ   ARU   AVH   BEN   BHP   BOQ   CBA   CIA   CRD   CXO   DRE   DRR   FMG   GNP   HAS   ILU   LBL   LYC   MIN   MTS   NAB   PEK   RIO   RMY   VML   WBC   XRO  

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $22.81

Jarden rates ((ANZ)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes the mortgage 'loyalty tax' that has traditionally favoured major Australian banks may be under threat.

In an increasingly competitive environment, the broker notes a swing towards customer retention by banks that includes offering large discounts to existing borrowers. The rise of technology solutions for borrowers (eg Stay-or-Go) are also impacting.

The analysts see the greatest risk of falling margins at CommBank and Westpac, while ANZ Bank is least exposed to mortgages.

The Neutral rating and $26.30 target are unchanged for ANZ Bank.

This report was published on March 7, 2023.

Target price is $26.30 Current Price is $22.81 Difference: $3.49
If ANZ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.19, suggesting upside of 23.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 242.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.6, implying annual growth of -2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 244.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 247.2, implying annual growth of 1.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARU    ARAFURA RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARU)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

While Tesla has been hinting at rare-earth-free permanent magnets for its next generation electric vehicle models, Canaccord Genuity forecasts such a move would have little impact on its long-term NdPr price outlook.

The broker expects rare earth magnets will continue to power a large percentage of future electric vehicles, and the recent sell off in the Rare Earths sector should be considered a buying opportunity.

The Speculative Buy rating and 75c target for Arafura Rare Earths are unchanged.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $0.75 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.235
If ARU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $4.05

Bell Potter rates ((AVH)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter notes a key feature of Avita Medical's recent FY22 results commentary was the announcement of an expanded sales force to drive Recell adoption in burns, and, shortly in soft tissue wounds.

The broker rejigs its revenue forecasts to allow for the FDA label expansion in June this year and raises its target to $5.60 from $4.20.

Management plans to submit a PMA supplement for a fully automated Recell kit in the 2Q of 2023 with a launch expected in the 1Q of 2024.

This device, which potentially saves clinicians -15-20 minutes of preparation time per patient, largely drives the broker's FY24 revenue estimate.

This report was published on March 9, 2023.

Target price is $5.60 Current Price is $4.05 Difference: $1.55
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 205.99 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.97.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 65.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.17.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $8.93

Jarden rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden believes the mortgage 'loyalty tax' that has traditionally favoured major Australian banks may be under threat.

In an increasingly competitive environment, the broker notes a swing towards customer retention by banks that includes offering large discounts to existing borrowers. The rise of technology solutions for borrowers (eg Stay-or-Go) are also impacting.

The analysts see the greatest risk of falling margins at CommBank and Westpac, while ANZ Bank is least exposed to mortgages.

The Neutral rating and $9.70 target are unchanged for Bendigo & Adelaide Bank.

This report was published on March 7, 2023.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $8.93 Difference: $0.77
If BEN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.37, suggesting upside of 16.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.5, implying annual growth of 6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.8, implying annual growth of -5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BHP    BHP GROUP LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $43.39

Goldman Sachs rates ((BHP)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant deficit for the seaborne iron ore market in the 1H of 2023, due to lower seasonal supply from Australia and Brazil and an expected recovery in Chinese steel volumes.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills are at lows last seen in 2016, just as Chinese property sales are recovering and Chinese blast furnace utilisation is increasing, explain the analysts.

From among its research coverage, Goldman Sachs prefers Rio Tinto and pure-play high-grade producer Champion Iron, based on production growth, free cash flow outlook and valuation.

The Neutral rating for BHP Group is unchanged, while the target rises to $48.30 from $48.00.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $48.30 Current Price is $43.39 Difference: $4.91
If BHP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.90, suggesting upside of 1.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 460.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.42.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 436.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 282.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 449.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 440.9, implying annual growth of 1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 305.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BOQ    BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $6.51

Jarden rates ((BOQ)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden believes the mortgage 'loyalty tax' that has traditionally favoured major Australian banks may be under threat.

In an increasingly competitive environment, the broker notes a swing towards customer retention by banks that includes offering large discounts to existing borrowers. The rise of technology solutions for borrowers (eg Stay-or-Go) are also impacting.

The analysts see the greatest risk of falling margins at CommBank and Westpac, while ANZ Bank is least exposed to mortgages.

The Overweight rating and $8.10 target are unchanged for Bank of Queensland.

This report was published on March 7, 2023.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.51 Difference: $1.59
If BOQ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.63, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.7, implying annual growth of 17.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.5, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 51.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.7.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $96.45

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden believes the mortgage 'loyalty tax' that has traditionally favoured major Australian banks may be under threat.

In an increasingly competitive environment, the broker notes a swing towards customer retention by banks that includes offering large discounts to existing borrowers. The rise of technology solutions for borrowers (eg Stay-or-Go) are also impacting.

The analysts see the greatest risk of falling margins at CommBank and Westpac, while ANZ Bank is least exposed to mortgages.

The Underweight rating and $100 target are retained for CommBank.

This report was published on March 7, 2023.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $96.45 Difference: $3.55
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $91.66, suggesting downside of -5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 440.00 cents and EPS of 582.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.55.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 611.9, implying annual growth of -2.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 429.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 445.00 cents and EPS of 577.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 607.6, implying annual growth of -0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 453.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CIA    CHAMPION IRON LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $7.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((CIA)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant deficit for the seaborne iron ore market in the 1H of 2023, due to lower seasonal supply from Australia and Brazil and an expected recovery in Chinese steel volumes.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills are at lows last seen in 2016, just as Chinese property sales are recovering and Chinese blast furnace utilisation is increasing, explain the analysts.

From among its research coverage, Goldman Sachs prefers Rio Tinto and pure-play high-grade producer Champion Iron based on production growth, free cash flow outlook and valuation.

The Buy rating for Champion Iron is unchanged, while the target rises to $8.80 from $8.20.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.36 Difference: $1.44
If CIA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 23.40 cents and EPS of 55.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.18%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.34.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 102.65 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.17.

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CRD    CONRAD ASIA ENERGY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.70

Bell Potter rates ((CRD)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Offshore Indonesia, in the West Natuna Basin and near existing infrastructure for export to Singapore, gas development company Conrad Asia Energy is developing its 76.5%-owned Mako Gas project.

Supply from projects like Mako reduces Singapore’s reliance on volatile LNG markets and is less carbon intensive, explains Bell Potter.

The broker initiates coverage of Conrad Asia Energy with a Speculative Buy rating and $2.40 target. Annual earnings of around US$160m in the initial years are forecast.

The company also has exploration potential, notes the analyst, from two recently-awarded Production Sharing Contract (PSC) areas in offshore northwest Sumatra, within the Aceh Province of Indonesia.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $2.40 Current Price is $1.70 Difference: $0.7
If CRD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 41% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 29.99.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 12.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.29.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CXO    CORE LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.84

Jarden rates ((CXO)) as Sell (5) –

Drilling continues at Core Lithium's Finniss Lithium operations and the mineral resource at BP33 has more than doubled, leading Jarden to extend its assumed mine life.

While the target rises to 50c from 48c to allow for the extended mine life, the broker suggests resource growth has arguably already been factored into market assumptions. Sell.

This report was published on March 7, 2023.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.84 Difference: minus $0.34 (current price is over target).
If CXO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.04, suggesting upside of 23.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 93.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 210.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.4, implying annual growth of 3000.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRE    DREADNOUGHT RESOURCES LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $0.06

Canaccord Genuity rates ((DRE)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

While Tesla has been hinting at rare-earth-free permanent magnets for its next generation electric vehicle models, Canaccord Genuity forecasts such a move would have little impact on its long-term NdPr price outlook.

The broker expects rare earth magnets will continue to power a large percentage of future electric vehicles, and the recent sell off in the Rare Earths sector should be considered a buying opportunity.

The Speculative Buy rating and 24c target for Dreadnought Resources are unchanged.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.06 Difference: $0.176
If DRE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 275% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $4.46

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant deficit for the seaborne iron ore market in the 1H of 2023, due to lower seasonal supply from Australia and Brazil and an expected recovery in Chinese steel volumes.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills are at lows last seen in 2016, just as Chinese property sales are recovering and Chinese blast furnace utilisation is increasing, explain the analysts.

From among its research coverage, Goldman Sachs prefers Rio Tinto and pure-play high-grade producer Champion Iron, based on production growth, free cash flow outlook and valuation.

The Neutral rating for Deterra Royalties is unchanged, while the target rises to $4.80 from $4.40.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.46 Difference: $0.34
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.98, suggesting upside of 11.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 31.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.39.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.2, implying annual growth of -10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 28.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 1.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $21.42

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant deficit for the seaborne iron ore market in the 1H of 2023, due to lower seasonal supply from Australia and Brazil and an expected recovery in Chinese steel volumes.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills are at lows last seen in 2016, just as Chinese property sales are recovering and Chinese blast furnace utilisation is increasing, explain the analysts.

From among its research coverage, Goldman Sachs prefers Rio Tinto and pure-play high-grade producer Champion Iron, based on production growth, free cash flow outlook and valuation.

The Sell rating for Fortescue Metals is unchanged, while the target rises to $15.50 from $13.50.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $15.50 Current Price is $21.42 Difference: minus $5.92 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.66, suggesting downside of -22.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 264.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 239.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 161.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 159.86 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 191.1, implying annual growth of -20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 129.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GNP    GENUSPLUS GROUP LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $0.93

Bell Potter rates ((GNP)) as Buy (1) –

A change in research analyst at Bell Potter results in lower assumptions for revenue growth and earnings margin for GenusPlus Group and the broker's target drops to $1.18 from $1.72.

A different outlook doesn't dissuade the analyst from maintaining a Buy recommendation.

The rating is underpinned by a strong EPS growth opportunity beyond FY23 and ongoing profitability improvements, which includes scaling of the company’s Communications division.

The broker also points to a relative and unjustified valuation discount (around -50%) to sector peers and a balance sheet able to fund organic and/or acquisitive growth.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $1.18 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.255
If GNP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HAS    HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $2.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HAS)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

While Tesla has been hinting at rare-earth-free permanent magnets for its next generation electric vehicle models, Canaccord Genuity forecasts such a move would have little impact on its long-term NdPr price outlook.

The broker expects rare earth magnets will continue to power a large percentage of future electric vehicles, and the recent sell off in the Rare Earths sector should be considered a buying opportunity.

The Speculative Buy rating and $4.50 target for Hastings Technology Metals are unchanged.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $2.82 Difference: $1.68
If HAS meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 35.25.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 282.00.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ILU    ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED

Mineral Sands – Overnight Price: $10.05

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ILU)) as Hold (3) –

While Tesla has been hinting at rare-earth-free permanent magnets for its next generation electric vehicle models, Canaccord Genuity forecasts such a move would have little impact on its long-term NdPr price outlook.

The broker expects rare earth magnets will continue to power a large percentage of future electric vehicles, and the recent sell off in the Rare Earths sector should be considered a buying opportunity.

The Hold rating and $11 target for Iluka Resources are unchanged.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $10.05 Difference: $0.95
If ILU meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.23, suggesting upside of 11.8%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.9, implying annual growth of -22.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.0, implying annual growth of -14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LBL    LASERBOND LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.89

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LBL)) as Buy (1) –

Following Laserbond's 1H results Canaccord Genuity retains its Buy rating and $1.10 target price.

The broker's forecasts remain consistent with management's target of $60m in revenue in FY25.

A key positive within the result for the analyst was the margin for Services. It's noted this division benefits from job-by-job pricing which allows adjustment for changing raw material costs.

The margin in the products division was impacted by a lag between inpiut cost increases and raising selling prices, explains Canaccord.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.89 Difference: $0.215
If LBL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.60 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.24.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.70 cents and EPS of 5.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.26.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LYC    LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $6.58

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LYC)) as Buy (1) –

While Tesla has been hinting at rare-earth-free permanent magnets for its next generation electric vehicle models, Canaccord Genuity forecasts such a move would have little impact on its long-term NdPr price outlook.

The broker expects rare earth magnets will continue to power a large percentage of future electric vehicles, and the recent sell off in the Rare Earths sector should be considered a buying opportunity.

The Buy rating and $11 target for Lynas Rare Earths are retained.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $6.58 Difference: $4.42
If LYC meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 67% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.00, suggesting upside of 21.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of -34.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.2, implying annual growth of 12.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MIN    MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $80.31

Goldman Sachs rates ((MIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant deficit for the seaborne iron ore market in the 1H of 2023, due to lower seasonal supply from Australia and Brazil and an expected recovery in Chinese steel volumes.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills are at lows last seen in 2016, just as Chinese property sales are recovering and Chinese blast furnace utilisation is increasing, explain the analysts.

From among its research coverage, Goldman Sachs prefers Rio Tinto and pure-play high-grade producer Champion Iron, based on production growth, free cash flow outlook and valuation.

The Neutral rating for Mineral Resources is unchanged, while the target rises to $86 from $83.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $80.31 Difference: $5.69
If MIN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $95.61, suggesting upside of 19.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 865.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.28.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 834.0, implying annual growth of 351.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 495.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.6.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 829.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1464.5, implying annual growth of 75.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 771.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MTS    METCASH LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $3.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((MTS)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

Moderating supermarket inflation and rising competition prompt Goldman Sachs to downgrade its rating for Metcash to Sell from Neutral.

The broker anticipates a market share grab will occur as a result of declining supermarket industry growth, and more efficient online shopping propositions from Coles Group ((COL)) and Woolworth Group ((WOW)) are set to weigh.

Apart from the impact of falling revenue, margins will likely be squeezed by an increase in capex spend, mainly on Project Horizon and the Hardware division, explains the analyst.

The target falls to $3.50 from $4.20 on the broker's lower earnings (EBIT) forecasts across FY23-25.

This report was published on March 10, 2023.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.80 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If MTS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 21.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in April.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.2, implying annual growth of 24.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.00 cents and EPS of 26.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.3, implying annual growth of -2.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NAB    NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $28.28

Jarden rates ((NAB)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden believes the mortgage 'loyalty tax' that has traditionally favoured major Australian banks may be under threat.

In an increasingly competitive environment, the broker notes a swing towards customer retention by banks that includes offering large discounts to existing borrowers. The rise of technology solutions for borrowers (eg Stay-or-Go) are also impacting.

The analysts see the greatest risk of falling margins at CommBank and Westpac, while ANZ Bank is least exposed to mortgages.

The Overweight rating and $33 target are unchanged for National Australia Bank.

This report was published on March 7, 2023.

Target price is $33.00 Current Price is $28.28 Difference: $4.72
If NAB meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $31.20, suggesting upside of 10.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 243.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.1, implying annual growth of 15.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 235.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 243.9, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 177.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PEK    PEAK RARE EARTHS LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.46

Canaccord Genuity rates ((PEK)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

While Tesla has been hinting at rare-earth-free permanent magnets for its next generation electric vehicle models, Canaccord Genuity forecasts such a move would have little impact on its long-term NdPr price outlook.

The broker expects rare earth magnets will continue to power a large percentage of future electric vehicles, and the recent sell off in the Rare Earths sector should be considered a buying opportunity.

The Speculative Buy rating and 90c target for Peak Rare Earths are unchanged.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.46 Difference: $0.445
If PEK meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 98% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RIO    RIO TINTO LIMITED

Bulks – Overnight Price: $114.80

Goldman Sachs rates ((RIO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts a significant deficit for the seaborne iron ore market in the 1H of 2023, due to lower seasonal supply from Australia and Brazil and an expected recovery in Chinese steel volumes.

Iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills are at lows last seen in 2016, just as Chinese property sales are recovering and Chinese blast furnace utilisation is increasing, explain the analysts.

From among its research coverage, Goldman Sachs prefers Rio Tinto and pure-play high-grade producer Champion Iron, based on production growth, free cash flow outlook and valuation.

The Buy rating for Rio Tinto is unchanged, while the target rises to $140.4 from $131.7.

This report was published on March 6, 2023.

Target price is $140.40 Current Price is $114.80 Difference: $25.6
If RIO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $116.79, suggesting upside of 1.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 EPS of 1286.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1121.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 663.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 1450.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1080.0, implying annual growth of -3.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 783.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RMY    RMA GLOBAL LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $0.13

Bell Potter rates ((RMY)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

A change in research analyst and an increase in Bell Potter's assumed weighted average cost of capital (WACC) combine to lower the broker's target for RMA Global to 20c from 36c.

The new analyst sees a significant opportunity in the US as there are around 26 times the number of real estate agents by comparison to Australia.

As a reminder, RMA Global owns a digital marketing and data platform for real estate agents that collects and promotes reviews generated from real estate transactions. The platform is monetised via subscriptions and advertising fees.

Bell Potter's Speculative Buy thesis is also founded on a growing revenue per claimed profile in the US, and an early-stage US claimed profile market penetration of 26.6%.

This report was published on March 10, 2023.

Target price is $0.20 Current Price is $0.13 Difference: $0.07
If RMY meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 54% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.50.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VML    VITAL METALS LIMITED

Rare Earth Minerals – Overnight Price: $0.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((VML)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

While Tesla has been hinting at rare-earth-free permanent magnets for its next generation electric vehicle models, Canaccord Genuity forecasts such a move would have little impact on its long-term NdPr price outlook.

The broker expects rare earth magnets will continue to power a large percentage of future electric vehicles, and the recent sell off in the Rare Earths sector should be considered a buying opportunity.

The Speculative Buy rating and 6c target for Vital Metals are unchanged.

This report was published on March 8, 2023.

Target price is $0.06 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.039
If VML meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 186% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $21.24

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden believes the mortgage 'loyalty tax' that has traditionally favoured major Australian banks may be under threat.

In an increasingly competitive environment, the broker notes a swing towards customer retention by banks that includes offering large discounts to existing borrowers. The rise of technology solutions for borrowers (eg Stay-or-Go) are also impacting.

The analysts see the greatest risk of falling margins at CommBank and Westpac, while ANZ Bank is least exposed to mortgages.

The Underweight rating and $23.80 target are retained for Westpac.

This report was published on March 7, 2023.

Target price is $23.80 Current Price is $21.24 Difference: $2.56
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.20, suggesting upside of 23.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 137.00 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 211.9, implying annual growth of 32.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 138.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 147.00 cents and EPS of 208.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 213.4, implying annual growth of 0.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 145.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRO    XERO LIMITED

Accountancy – Overnight Price: $89.47

Goldman Sachs rates ((XRO)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs raises its FY24-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 9-17% following Xero's announcement on reducing its global headcount. The company also provided FY24 opex guidance based on 75% of revenue.

The announcement makes clear the new ceo's priorities in terms of scaling versus profitable growth, comments the analyst, and also highlights the scale and earnings potential of the business.

The broker remains confident on the revenue outlook given the company's strong pricing. It's also noted structural industry tailwinds are driving cloud accounting adoption globally.

This report was published on March 10, 2023.

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $89.47 Difference: $25.53
If XRO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $89.59, suggesting upside of 0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 467.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 371.2.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 71.06 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.7, implying annual growth of 263.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

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