Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Dec 04, 2023

This story features ADAIRS LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADH

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ADH (2)   AFP   ANZ   ASG (2)   BEN   BRG   BRI   CAA   CPU   DUR   FMG   FPH   GDF   HLS   KGN   MXI   NHC   NST   PFP   PWH   QBE   SHV  

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $1.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADH)) as Hold (3) –

While commentary was sombre in tone at Adairs' AGM and trading update, Wilsons didn't unearth any surprises. A challenging homewares spending backdrop persists and continues to restrict sales by the company, notes the analyst.

Sales have broadly continued on trend since the last update at FY23 results, advises the broker, and the store rollout is proceeding on pace for Adairs and Focus on Furniture.

The Hold rating and $1.40 target are unchanged.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY24:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 41.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ADH)) as Underweight (5) –

An update from Adairs shows trading has remained soft for the retailer over the first half, and by brand sales from both Mocka and Focus were moderately ahead of Wilsons' expectations, while Adairs was in line, and Mocka appears the outperformer.

The broker points out the lack of quantitative earnings guidance from the company at this time of the year is unusual, and likely points to volatile trading conditions.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.10 from $1.00.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $1.52 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If ADH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.55, suggesting upside of 2.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.3, implying annual growth of -25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.0, implying annual growth of 41.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AFP    AFT PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $3.05

Jarden rates ((AFP)) as Neutral (3) –

AFT Pharmaceuticals' September-half earnings (EBIT) missed Jarden's above-guidance forecast by roughly -50%. No interim dividend was declared but the company still expects to pay a final dividend, management retaining FY24 EBIT guidance.

The EBIT discrepancy boiled down to higher costs in the Australia and New Zealand segment, which was weaker than expected and slammed margins, despite revenue being close to forecasts.

Jarden says a strong second half will be in order to meet forecasts but considers it to be achievable.

Neutral rating retained. Target price eases to NZ$3.55 from NZ$3.60.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Current Price is $3.05. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.39 cents and EPS of 16.93 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.02.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.85 cents and EPS of 19.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.85.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANZ    ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $24.43

Goldman Sachs rates ((ANZ)) as Buy (1) –

Following a review of the Banking sector, Goldman Sachs notes return on tangible equity (ROTE) for mortgage lending has fallen by -25% year-on-year in 2023, and the broker can't envisage a path towards a material recovery.

Over the past decade, housing lending ROTE has more than halved to 18% in FY22 from 35-40% pre-FY15, and then 14% in FY23.

Prior to 2023, higher capital requirements were responsible for the decrease, but this year the impact on net interest margins (NIM) from competition was the central cause, explains the broker.

Buy-rated ANZ Bank and National Australia Bank ((NAB)) are the two preferred exposures by Goldman Sachs. The ANZ Bank target is $26.66.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $26.66 Current Price is $24.43 Difference: $2.23
If ANZ meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.15, suggesting upside of 7.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 209.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 215.7, implying annual growth of -8.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 162.00 cents and EPS of 205.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.3, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASG    AUTOSPORTS GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.32

Moelis rates ((ASG)) as Buy (1) –

Autosports Group is guiding to 23-25% revenue growth in the first half, amid resilient demand as new car supply improves. As Moelis notes, while the company is reporting strong topline growth, this is offset by increased interest costs.

The broker highlights interest costs have risen to $20 for the first half, from $4.7m in the first half of the previous year, a result of increased inventory, higher interest rates, and increased debt from the company's Fortitude Valley purchase.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.20 from $3.30.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $0.88
If ASG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 38.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 18.40 cents and EPS of 35.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.70 cents and EPS of 26.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of -14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ASG)) as Overweight (1) –

With Autosports Group providing strong earnings guidance for the first half, Wilsons remains comfortable with its above guidance forecast for first half profit given a strong order book and near-term vehicle supply amid ongoing favourable trading conditions.

The broker is encouraged not only by the strong trading update, but also the company's history of beating guidance. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $3.78 are retained.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $3.78 Current Price is $2.32 Difference: $1.46
If ASG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 63% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.22, suggesting upside of 38.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 41.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.7, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 40.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.5, implying annual growth of -14.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.6.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $9.02

Goldman Sachs rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –

Despite Bendigo & Adelaide Bank benign September quarter update, says Goldman Sachs, the broker has downgraded earnings per share expectations across its three-year outlook, amid disappointing net margin results from the recent majors reporting season.

According to the broker, despite the bank being on the right path to improve operational efficiencies, the revenue environment remains challenging. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.35 from $9.69.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $9.35 Current Price is $9.02 Difference: $0.33
If BEN meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.17, suggesting upside of 1.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.87.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.2, implying annual growth of -5.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.3, implying annual growth of 0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $23.78

Wilsons rates ((BRG)) as Market Weight (3) –

To gain any insights around Breville Group, Wilsons runs an eye over recent 3Q reports by global peers. Demand softness was observed in both Europe and North America, with the exception of sales strength shown by DeLonghi.

Overall stock coverage appears stable to the analysts, who note a 5.7% average share price rally for the group of competitors in the five days following results, due to (average) EPS upgrades of 0.5%.

The Market Weight rating and $25.70 target are maintained for Breville Group.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $25.70 Current Price is $23.78 Difference: $1.92
If BRG meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.98, suggesting upside of 13.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 35.00 cents and EPS of 88.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of 9.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 102.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 14.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRI    BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.05

Moelis rates ((BRI)) as Buy (1) –

Big River Industries has reported strong growth in its commercial business over the first quarter, but this has been offset by softness in residential. Moelis notes despite the housing pipeline showing resilience, the company expects softness ahead of a demand rebound.

As per Moelis, the outlook for commercial is much more constructive, with the company citing record levels and anticipated growth over 2024.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $2.61 from $3.36.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $2.61 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.56
If BRI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.60 cents and EPS of 19.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.62.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.70 cents and EPS of 21.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.67.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAA    CAPRAL LIMITED

Aluminium, Bauxite & Alumina – Overnight Price: $8.75

Taylor Collison rates ((CAA)) as Outperform (2) –

Taylor Collison has initiated coverage on aluminium extruder Capral with an Outperform rating and a $10.97 target price.

While the broker expects a macro slowing from here to 2025, it expects the -18% national structural "underbuild" will supporting housing prices and construction, and points to the new home bonus of $3bn for the states, and a program to build 1.2m new homes with solid volume forecast to come to market by the end of FY24.

Taylor Collison considers the shares to be undervalued and says the market has underestimated the growth potential in its industrial division and the likely pace of the residential construction rebound by early FY25.

The broker says the company is also to take advantage of the 15,000T solar market through a low carbon aluminium offering and cladding rectification. This also places the company in a better position should a carbon border adjustment mechanism be introduced and the broker expects Capral is also likely to benefit from the covid-inspired fall in imports (although some reversion to the norm is likely).

The company holds zero net debt, $41m in cash and a $80m financing facility, putting it in a good position to pitch for market dominance, says the broker.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $10.97 Current Price is $8.75 Difference: $2.22
If CAA meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 168.10 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 19.21%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

Forecast for FY24:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 136.30 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CPU    COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED

Diversified Financials – Overnight Price: $23.44

Goldman Sachs rates ((CPU)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs has reinitiated coverage on Computershare, liking the company's strong balance sheet that is expected to improve further.

The broker sees upside to company guidance for FY24 earnings of 116 cents per share, given the sale of the company's US mortgage servicing business, expected to be 4.6% accretive to earnings per share.

The broker reinitiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $27.00.

This report was published on November 26, 2023.

Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $23.44 Difference: $3.56
If CPU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.46, suggesting upside of 21.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 120.70 cents and EPS of 181.05 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.15%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 165.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 119.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 129.75 cents and EPS of 193.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.8, implying annual growth of 16.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 112.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DUR    DURATEC LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $1.30

Moelis rates ((DUR)) as Buy (1) –

Duratec has issued maiden guidance for FY24, anticipating revnue of $570-610m (implying 16-24% growth year-on-year) and earnings of $45-52m (implying 16-34% growth year-on-year).

Moelis notes tenders of $1.02bn and a pipeline of $3.28bn show significant growth since the year end result, up 21% and 37% respectively, and the broker is encouraged given the historical tender win rate and enlarged tender book.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $1.62 from $1.50.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $1.62 Current Price is $1.30 Difference: $0.32
If DUR meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.20 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.00%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.38.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.80 cents and EPS of 11.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.21.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $25.20

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs reviews Fortescue's Final Investment Decisions on two green hydrogen projects requiring US$700m in capital expenditure: the Phoenix Hydrogen Hub in Arizona, and the Gladstone PEM50 electrolyser project in Queensland.

The broker observes engineering studies are yet to be undertaken and no sales offtake agreements are in place (although suspects news on the latter may soon be forthcoming).

Goldman Sachs also bemoans the company's failure to provide information on project economics or financial metrics.

The broker says the two decisions fall well short of the company's targeted five, but the company has advised it will fast track studies for Pecem in Brazil, Chui in Kenya and Homaneset in Norway in 2024.

The broker also bemoans the failure of the company to provide capital expenditure and timing details on these projects but takes a punt at US$10bn to US$20bn (closer to US$20bn if they include ammonia and liquefaction facilities).

Goldman Sachs observes the Gibson Island green hydrogen is yet to be approved due to structurally high green electricity costs in Australia. The broker believes these problems will apply equally to the other proposed projects and estimates a negative US$200m net present value for the projects, including government funding.

Sell rating retained, the broker observing other challenges in the steel market, high valuation, ramp-up risks on Iron Bridge and general uncertainty surrounding Pilbara decarbonisation. Target price steady at $18.10 (which compares with $16.30 on November 16).

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $18.10 Current Price is $25.20 Difference: minus $7.1 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.96, suggesting downside of -28.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 152.38 cents and EPS of 276.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 87.51 cents and EPS of 173.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.52.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.5, implying annual growth of -22.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 130.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH    FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $22.22

Jarden rates ((FPH)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden estimates first half revenue from Fisher & Paykel Healthcare of NZ$794m, up 15% year-on-year, and net profit of NZ$99m, up 3% year-on-year. Segmentally, the broker expects 14% growth in hospital revenue, 20% growth in consumables and a -30% decline in hardware.

On consumables, the broker expects customers to have worked through destocking and will be looking for exit growth rates to confirm base level demand. The broker continues to expect wider adoption of nasal high flow outside of the ICU to be key to demand growth.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to NZ$22.50 from NZ$23.00.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Current Price is $22.22. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $21.60, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.39 cents and EPS of 40.24 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 40.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 39.32 cents and EPS of 54.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 41.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 52.5, implying annual growth of 30.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 38.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.3.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDF    GARDA PROPERTY GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $1.14

Moelis rates ((GDF)) as Buy (1) –

Garda Property continues to progress 'strategically important' sales of Melbourne property, says Moelis, with settlement of Botanica 7 and 9 expected by early February, and the company now seeking a buyer for Hawthorn office asset.

The Botanica properties have been sold for $80m, a disappointing discount to value according to Moelis, but these combined sales will see Garda Property exit the challenging Melbourne market, and reduce office exposure, leaving it to focus on its Brisbane industrial pipeline.

Moelis assumes gearing will drop to 24% following the settlement of both sales, but expects the company to invest around $62m into its industrial development pipeline, seeing gearing settle at around 32% in June.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.63 from $1.75.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $1.14 Difference: $0.49
If GDF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 43% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 6.30 cents and EPS of 5.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.32.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 6.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.01.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLS    HEALIUS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $1.59

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLS)) as No Rating (-1) –

Healius has announced a $187m capital raising, alongside new capital structure initiatives, leaving Goldman Sachs to adjust its earnings per share forecasts -62%, -48% and -35% through to FY26.

The broker has a revised earnings forecast of $387m, in line with the midpoint of company guidance. 

Goldman Sachs is not rated on Healius. 

This report was published on November 25, 2023.

Current Price is $1.59. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.83, suggesting upside of 15.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.4, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.3, implying annual growth of 144.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KGN    KOGAN.COM LIMITED

Retailing – Overnight Price: $5.12

Jarden rates ((KGN)) as Underweight (4) –

Kogan.com's AGM trading update disappointed Jarden due to a margin squeeze.

While the company did record its first month of year on year growth since January 2022, and strong contributions were received from Marketplace, Verticals, Kogan First and Advertising Platform, an uptick in marketing investment and one-off items took the shine off the result.

The broker has observed no material change in KPIs.

Underweight rating and $4.50 target price retained.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $5.12 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If KGN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $6.63, suggesting upside of 29.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 9.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 52.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 41.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.7, implying annual growth of 149.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MXI    MAXIPARTS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $2.51

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MXI)) as Buy (1) –

MaxiPARTS will pay $29.6m (including costs) to acquire WA-based truck and trailer distributor Independent Parts, and separately 1.9m for Forch Brisbane, supported by a $17.2m institutional placement at $2.46/share.

Independent Parts has a three-year history of providing truck and trailer parts to the mining and logistics industries. Canaccord Genuity anticipates annualised revenues and earnings of $50m and $4m, respectively, in FY24, before synergies are realised in FY25.

The broker raises EPS forecasts after strong 1Q trading and the target rises to $3.91 from $3.70. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $3.91 Current Price is $2.51 Difference: $1.4
If MXI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.94.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.04.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $5.21

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

New Hope's October-quarter result broadly met consensus and Goldman Sachs' forecasts but sales disappointed as some shipments were delayed to the December quarter.

Maiden unit cost guidance for Bengalla also disappointed due to a rise in mining costs.

The company closed the quarter with a cash balance of $0.81bn, compared with $0.83bn at July 31 and management is looking at opportunities to gain a return on this cash.

Management observed the heavy discounting continues in the uncontracted market for high-quality coal ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter but advised its forward sales book with strong with zero unsold supply until January.

Goldman Sachs's team estimates the thermal coal market is moving into a larger surplus for FY23 and and the next December half.

EPS forecasts fall -6% in FY24; -10% in FY25; and -8% in FY26.

Sell rating retained on valuation grounds. Target price eases to $3.60 from $3.70.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: minus $1.61 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.20, suggesting downside of -0.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.9, implying annual growth of -50.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 55.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 66.6, implying annual growth of 5.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NST    NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $12.44

Jarden rates ((NST)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden maintains its positive investment thesis on Northern Star Resources, noting the high quality portfolio of long-life assets. The broker would like to see better disclosure on mine sequencing for Jundee, Thunderbox and Carosue Dam, but notes this is a modest concern.

The broker expects Northern Star Resources can deliver 25% production growth to more than 2m ounces per annum, at an 8.5% compound annual growth rate through to FY27.

The Overweight rating and target price of $13.60 are retained.

This report was published on November 24, 2023.

Target price is $13.60 Current Price is $12.44 Difference: $1.16
If NST meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.75, suggesting upside of 2.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 23.00 cents and EPS of 35.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 35.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.9, implying annual growth of 0.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 61.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.9, implying annual growth of 39.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PFP    PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED

Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.78

Moelis rates ((PFP)) as Buy (1) –

Propel Funeral Partners' AGM September-quarter trading update appears to have pleased Moelis.

Overall funerals rose but organic growth declined, and Moelis expects organic growth to recover to historical averages in the second half of FY24.

Buy rating retained. Target price is $5.40.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.62
If PFP meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.92, suggesting upside of 23.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 13.30 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of 15.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 21.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.6, implying annual growth of 10.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.2.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PWH    PWR HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $9.82

Moelis rates ((PWH)) as Hold (3) –

PWR Holdings has withdrawn from a high-volume electric vehicle contract due to "commercial reasons".

The project in question was a collaboration on the development of battery cold plates for a high-volume EV program due to start in FY26 and continue for five years.

Moelis observes this is the second large EV contract the company has backed out of for commercial reasons and carries both negative and positive implications.

The broker appreciates the company's financial discipline and says PWR Holdings has other potential contracts in the pipeline and opportunities continue to rise, especially in Operating Equipment Manufacture and Aerospace and Defence. also, given it is a longer-dated project, the earnings impact is minimal, says the broker.

But Moelis observes the company's high price-earnings multiple suggests the market was betting on this contract win.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $10.20 to reflect higher outer year uncertainty.

This report was published on November 23, 2023.

Target price is $10.20 Current Price is $9.82 Difference: $0.38
If PWH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting upside of 8.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 25.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 37.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 21.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 17.20 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.6, implying annual growth of 20.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $15.33

Goldman Sachs rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

In a third quarter update from QBE Insurance, the insurer has retained its full year combined operating ratio target of 94.5%, amid benign catastrophe activity in recent months, although somewhat offset by crop results.

The broker notes group-wide rate increases remain strong, with North America up 12.3%, Australia up 12.5% and International up 6%, while claims inflation appears to be showing early signs of moderation.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $18.34 from $18.09.

This report was published on November 28, 2023.

Target price is $18.34 Current Price is $15.33 Difference: $3.01
If QBE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.29, suggesting upside of 12.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 63.37 cents and EPS of 141.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 135.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 100.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 90.53 cents and EPS of 184.07 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 178.4, implying annual growth of 31.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.6.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV    SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $3.25

Wilsons rates ((SHV)) as Overweight (1) –

Select Harvests' strategic priorities appear to be progressing well, says Wilsons, given upgrades to the company's earnings and cash flow improvement targets.

The company reported a full year loss of -$123m, representing a $9m earnings improvement and progress on its $20m multi-year target. Wilsons notes almond crop production and realised pricing were better than expected, but offset by higher production costs.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.20 from $5.21.

This report was published on November 27, 2023.

Target price is $5.20 Current Price is $3.25 Difference: $1.95
If SHV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 108.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 33.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.62.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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