Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 20, 2024

This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AMP   APE   ARF   BMT   BRG   CBA   CGF (2)   CQE (2)   CSL   CU6   DHG   DRR   DTL   DXS   EVN   FBU   GUD   IEL   JHX (2)   MGH   MQG   NWH   PME (2)   SEK   STX   SWM   TPW   VVA  

AMP    AMP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $1.10

Jarden rates ((AMP)) as Neutral (3) –

Underlying profit in FY23 of $196m was 6% ahead of forecasts by Jarden and consensus due largely to stronger Australian Wealth Management earnings and a lower group tax rate.

Australian Wealth Management profit exceeded the broker's forecast by $18m, reflecting stronger other revenues from north, AMP's investment platform, and lower controllable costs within divisions.

Jarden sees only moderate valuation appeal as return on equity (ROE) for the Bank is unlikely to improve in a meaningful fashion, particularly given cyclically-low bad and doubtful debts. The Neutral rating and $1.15 target are unchanged.

Now that APRA has given AMP the okay to proceed with its $350m third tranche capital return, the 8% ultimate accretion allowed for in Jarden's EPS forecasts has been de-risked.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.15 Current Price is $1.10 Difference: $0.05
If AMP meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.11, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 7.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.0, implying annual growth of 1011.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 10.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.7, implying annual growth of 38.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

APE    EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $14.64

Canaccord Genuity rates ((APE)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Cannacord Genuity initiates coverage on automotive retailer Eagers Automotive with a Buy rating and $16 target price.

The broker appreciates the company's structurally higher, industry-leading profit margins, management team and technological superiority.

While acknowledging growing margin pressures as the sales environment deteriorates, the broker believes they can be maintained until at least December FY25, possibly longer, given it will take some time for the current market dynamics to flow through.

In this respect, Canaccord Genuity is running a different race to consensus, which is forecasting earnings declines. The main risk to the broker's thesis is a steeper than expected fall in demand.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $14.64 Difference: $1.36
If APE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.11, suggesting upside of 3.2%(ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY23:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.6, implying annual growth of -6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 73.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 120.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.69%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.20.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 104.6, implying annual growth of -7.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARF    ARENA REIT

REITs – Overnight Price: $3.53

Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Hold (3) –

Moelis assesses a consistent performance by Arena REIT in the 1H and notes growing macroeconomic tailwinds.Tenant occupancy was at a record level and gearing remains low, in the broker's view, at 21.7% compared to 21% at June 30, 2023.

The REIT reported 1H EPS and a dividend of 8.72cpu and 8.70cpu, respectively.

The tenant performance was strong, as the analyst expected, with tenants reporting average daily fee growth of 10.5% (in the 12 months to September 2023) to $141 from $127.

Arena's 10.6% rent to revenue ratio continues to allow for meaningful upside to rents, suggests Moelis.

The Hold rating and $3.76 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $3.76 Current Price is $3.53 Difference: $0.23
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 17.40 cents and EPS of 17.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.94.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.20 cents and EPS of 18.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.08.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BMT    BEAMTREE HOLDINGS LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $0.22

Petra Capital rates ((BMT)) as Buy (1) –

Hospital coding audits in international waters drove 23% year-on-year revenue growth for Beamtree Holdings in its first half, an in-line result according to Petra Capital. The company reitereated its committment to a positive operating profit result over the fulll year.

Beamtree Holdings targets annual recurring revenue of $60m by 2026, and Petra Capital believes conversion of hospital coding audits to subscription licenses and execution of RippleDown sales is key to achieving this, with the RippleDown pipeline the strongest it's ever been.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to 61 cents from 60 cents.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.39
If BMT meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 177% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 15.71.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 73.33.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRG    BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED

Household & Personal Products – Overnight Price: $26.14

Jarden rates ((BRG)) as Neutral (3) –

Breville Group offered mixed 1H24 earnings says Jarden, with the broker viewing the current fiscal year a period of unwinding inventories.

The company reported a -5% miss on sales and working capital which rose, ahead of a 2% beat on EBIT, which the analyst views as a strategic decision to handle an oversupplied market.

Looking ahead, Jarden is confident of a return to renewed growth and forecasts 7% FY24 EBIT improvment, in line with management guidance and 12% EBIT growth for FY25.

A Neutral rating is retained and the target lowered to $23.60 from $23.80.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $23.60 Current Price is $26.14 Difference: minus $2.54 (current price is over target).
If BRG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.86, suggesting upside of 2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 32.00 cents and EPS of 81.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 5.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 32.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 37.00 cents and EPS of 94.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 92.1, implying annual growth of 13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $117.13

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden assesses CommBank's 1H result was a little disappointing because the cash profit beat was driven by better non-interest income and lower bad and doubtful debts (BDDs). Also, the net interest margin (NIM) of 1.99% fell short of the 2% expected.

The NIM miss was largely due to deposit costs (-6bps), explain the analysts, driven by a combination of switching (-3bps) and pricing (-3bps).

The broker's target falls to $99 from $100 on a lower FY24 forecasts for bad and doubtful debts, outweighed by a lower FY25 margin estimate. Underweight retained.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $99.00 Current Price is $117.13 Difference: minus $18.13 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $91.55, suggesting downside of -21.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 452.00 cents and EPS of 572.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.86%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.46.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 580.9, implying annual growth of -3.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 455.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 453.00 cents and EPS of 564.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.87%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 572.5, implying annual growth of -1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 461.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGF    CHALLENGER LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $7.11

Goldman Sachs rates ((CGF)) as Buy (1) –

Challenger's December-half result outpaced both consensus and Goldman Sachs's forecasts and management narrowed net profit before tax guidance to the top half of its range.

Return on equity rose 13% (possibly due to changes in accounting standards and operational improvements, opines the broker). Expenses proved a beat, management forecasting a cost-to-income ratio at the bottom of its target range.

Add the expectation the bank's transformation program will start yield benefits from FY25 onward and the broker remains upbeat.

EPS and DPS forecasts rise for FY24 and FY25. Buy rating retained. Target price rises to $7.50 from $7. 

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $0.39
If CGF meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.16, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 60.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 64.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.11.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 24.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((CGF)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden suggests the strategy to concentrate on longer duration and higher margin annuities helped boost the 15% Life Growth for Challenger's 1H24 results.

Management lifted the upper end of guidance for FY24 to $555m-$605m (with Jarden at $594m) and the analyst views a potential 8% per annum further growth as possible.

EPS forecasts are raised bt 2.8% and 3.3% for FY24 and FY25, respectively and the 12x PER valuation is not viewed as onerous, given the upside growth prospects.

An Overweight rating is unchanged and the target lifted to $7.55 from $7.25.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $7.55 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $0.44
If CGF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.16, suggesting upside of 0.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 54.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 47.3, implying annual growth of 12.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 26.40 cents and EPS of 61.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 58.7, implying annual growth of 24.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CQE    CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT

Childcare – Overnight Price: $2.69

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CQE)) as Hold (3) –

Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT's December-half result outpaced Canaccord Genuity's forecasts. The dividend met both consensus and broker forecasts, and dividend guidance was retained.

The broker observes the company is now trading at a discount to AREIT peers and -28% below net tangible assets.

This and the improved yield spread to the 10-year bond rate support the valuation, but the broker believes this reflects the recent interest cycle than fundamental shifts.

Hence a Hold rating is retained. Target price inches up to $2.95 from $2.93. 

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.26
If CQE meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.60.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.50 cents and EPS of 16.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((CQE)) as Underweight (4) –

According to Jarden, Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT offers exposure to some of the most attractive asset classes such as childcare and healthcare. However, the REIT's balance sheet is holding back structural benefits.

The cost of debt supersedes the upside from asset sales and reducing the payout ratio, highlights the analyst. 

With significant underperformance of the REIT relative to the sector, it is becoming more attractive notes Jarden, but the 1H24 results pointed to lower interest rates or inorganic growth needed to improve the outlook.

An Underweight rating and $3.05 target are unchanged.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.69 Difference: $0.36
If CQE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.71.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.40 cents and EPS of 16.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.30.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $281.03

Jarden rates ((CSL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden highlights a 3.5% net profit beat for CSL's 1H24 results as the Behring blood plasma operations (58.6% of earnings) did the "heavy lifting" with a 2.5% better than consensus result.

Seqirus and Vifor both produced a miss, although flu vaccines (FLUAD) were up 14%.

The broker highlights an improvement in the Behring gross margin to pre-pandemic levels will underpin circa 15% net profit growth over the next four years.

Net profit forecasts are lowered by -0.3% and -2.0% and -0.8% for FY24 through to FY26. An Overweight rating is retained and the target price is lowered to $296.02 from $298.57.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $296.02 Current Price is $281.03 Difference: $14.99
If CSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $316.73, suggesting upside of 12.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 391.44 cents and EPS of 820.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 938.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 407.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 455.17 cents and EPS of 995.45 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1185.4, implying annual growth of 26.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 520.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CU6    CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $2.57

Wilsons rates ((CU6)) as Overweight (1) –

According to Wilsons, further analysis of the potential for Clarity Pharmaceuticals to recieve accelerated approval, more selective patient population and elongated trial timelines, are needed, following the release of the second phase results of the company's COBRA trial.

As per the broker, the trial results pose a different pathway to market from previous expectations, and suggest changes in the trial design ahead of the third phase.

The broker does, however, remain bullish on prospects for all Clarity Pharmaceuticals' pipeline agents, including the 64Cu-SARbisPSMA involved in the COBRA trial. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the broker's target price is under review.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Current Price is $2.57. Target price not assessed.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $3.27

Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Overweight (2) –

While volume in the 1H for Domain Holdings Australia proved  a -2% miss compared to Jarden's forecast, the broker spotted an impressive acceleration in controllable yield growth. 

The rise to 15% from 13% in Q2 was mostly due to depth, understands the broker. Revenue and earnings (EBITDA) from continuing operations missed consensus forecasts by -1% and -2%, respectively.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target slips to $3.75 from $3.80 on cuts to the broker's near-term earnings forecasts, while changes made to longer-term assumptions are immaterial.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $3.75 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.48
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.39, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 3.70 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 95.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 40.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 8.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 36.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 16.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.8.

Market Sentiment: -0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DRR    DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $5.17

Goldman Sachs rates ((DRR)) as Neutral (3) –

Ahead of Deterra Royalties' full December quarter result in late February, Goldman Sachs points out iron ore shipments from the Mining Area C hub declined -5% quarter-on-quarter over the quarter, while royalty income increased 11% to $62m. 

The broker explains this was a result of higher iron ore pricing, but does not expect Deterra Royalties will recieve a capacity payment again until the next financial year. 

In FY25, the company anticipates a full ramp up of South Flank, and a subsequent total production lift to 140m tonnes. The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.00 from $5.10.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $5.17 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If DRR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.97, suggesting downside of -3.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.80 cents and EPS of 30.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of 17.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.80 cents and EPS of 29.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of -1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DTL    DATA#3 LIMITED.

IT & Support – Overnight Price: $7.76

Wilsons rates ((DTL)) as Overweight (1) –

Higher interest income in the first half saw Data#3 able to deliver on its guided profit before tax of between $30-31m. Wilsons points out while profits increased around $6m year-on-year, $4m of this increase was attributable to interest income. 

The company is guiding to just $2.5m in interest income in the second half, suggesting the first half result was transient rather than a sign of a recurring profit lift. Wilsons expects this was the driver of a -13% share price dip following the result. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $9.12 from $9.60.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $9.12 Current Price is $7.76 Difference: $1.36
If DTL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.03, suggesting upside of 3.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 26.10 cents and EPS of 28.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.0, implying annual growth of 16.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.80 cents and EPS of 31.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.3, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 27.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DXS    DEXUS

REITs – Overnight Price: $7.65

Jarden rates ((DXS)) as Underweight (4) –

While 1H results for Dexus were stronger than Jarden expected, the numbers were boosted by several one-offs, and the broker anticipates several ongoing headwinds, despite management's belief interest rates are near a peak.

The benefits from cost synergies and a lower debt balance will be countered by negative rent reversions in Office, the impact from asset sales and redemptions in funds management, believe the analysts.

The broker also anticipates a 150bps increase in weighted average cost of debt (WACD) for the REIT.

The Underweight rating is unchanged and the target rises to $7.90 from $7.70.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $7.90 Current Price is $7.65 Difference: $0.25
If DXS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.55, suggesting upside of 11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 64.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.27%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.86.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.10 cents and EPS of 65.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.70.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 63.6, implying annual growth of 3.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EVN    EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $3.03

Jarden rates ((EVN)) as Underweight (4) –

As part of its 1H results release, management at Evolution Mining maintained the FY24 guidance range at 789koz (+/-5%) at a $1,340/oz cost (AISC). The broker notes consensus was expecting an outcome -7% below the midpoint of the range.

An interim dividend of 2cps (fully franked) was declared.

The analysts feel the Red Lake asset faces a telling 2H in terms of delivering on lowered expectations.

A 5% improvement in Jarden's net debt forecasts and the benefit of an increased FY24 production forecast are offset by a lower outlook for Red Lake over the medium to long-term.

The Underweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $3.00 from $3.10.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $3.03 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.57, suggesting upside of 17.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.40 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.4, implying annual growth of 162.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.14%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.45.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 30.6, implying annual growth of 30.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.29

Jarden rates ((FBU)) as Buy (1) –

Fletcher Building's 1H normalised earnings (EBIT) were -15% lower than Jarden forecast, while management's FY24 earnings guidance implies an ongoing and material softening of the housing and construction markets.

The broker highlights a continuing underestimation of legacy contract costs by management. It's felt the incoming CEO will be required to bolster market confidence in the company's processes.

The target falls to NZ$4.61 from NZ$5.74 on the broker's lowered earnings forecasts, and after the analysts add -100bps of company risk premium due to the downgrade cycle and uncertainty around Iplex resin and pipe fault issues. The Buy rating is unchanged.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Current Price is $3.29. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $4.59, suggesting upside of 39.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 8.34 cents and EPS of 32.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.23 cents and EPS of 36.04 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.13.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.8, implying annual growth of -3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD    G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $11.03

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GUD)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity appears to have resumed coverage on G.U.D. Holdings under a new analyst.

G.U.D. Holdings's December-half result broadly met consensus and Canaccord Genuity's forecasts.

The broker observes a solid operating result given mixed trading environments, which yielded operating cash flow conversion of 93.5%.

The company's core automotive business was strong but APG disappointed ahead of the country's removal of the clean car emissions scheme post the election.

The broker revises down FY24 earnings forecasts to reflect its higher net interest expense forecast; and upgrades FY25 and FY26 estimates.

Buy rating and $15.15 target price retained.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $15.15 Current Price is $11.03 Difference: $4.12
If GUD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.84, suggesting upside of 16.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 86.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.7, implying annual growth of 9.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 104.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.7, implying annual growth of 13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $19.56

Jarden rates ((IEL)) as Overweight (2) –

IDP Education's revenue and earnings (EBITDA) beat both consensus and Jarden's forecasts by 8% and 9% respectively, driven by the student placements (SP) division.

The broker believes the higher gross margin SP business (by comparison to the IELTS division) will continue to benefit from university fee rises, ongoing system growth of international students and further market share gains. 

Earnings for IELTS missed the consensus estimate by -2.7%, according to the broker.

The overall gross margin expanded by 255bps to 64.6%, due partly to  a positive mix shift, explains Jarden.

Even before taking into account potential upside in the US, the analysts suggest the current share price is not reflecting the long-term
opportunity for SP in the company's core markets.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price increases to $29.45 from $27.25.

This report was published on February 15, 2024.

Target price is $29.45 Current Price is $19.56 Difference: $9.89
If IEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $24.78, suggesting upside of 26.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 63.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 62.5, implying annual growth of 17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 78.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 71.4, implying annual growth of 14.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JHX    JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $56.57

Goldman Sachs rates ((JHX)) as Buy (1) –

Despite a strong third quarter result from James Hardie Industries, says Goldman Sachs, fourth quarter guidance has left the broker disappointed. 

The company reported North American volumes of 767m square feet, compared to its prior guidance of 745m square feet. The company explained the result reflected a pull forward in the quarter given the implementation of price increases on January 1. 

The result is fourth quarter production guidance of 765m square feet, a -4% miss to the broker's expectations.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $61.65 from $62.20.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $61.65 Current Price is $56.57 Difference: $5.08
If JHX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $62.22, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 245.79 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.02.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 250.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 268.55 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.07.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 281.2, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Jarden rates ((JHX)) as Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral (2) –

Jarden believes there was short term noise around management retaining 4Q24 guidance, rather than the market focusing on better than forecast 3Q24 results which revealed both US volumes and EBIT ahead of expectations.

The strength in US earnings and leverage is highlighted by the analyst as the US market offers scope to recover.

Jarden raises FY24 EPS forecasts by 6.2% and 11.4% for FY25.

The pullback in the share price was seen as a great opportunity to upgrade to Overweight from Neutral and the target lifted to $57 from $48.

This report was published on February 14, 2024.

Target price is $57.00 Current Price is $56.57 Difference: $0.43
If JHX meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $62.22, suggesting upside of 10.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 245.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 250.3, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2581.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 2.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 281.2, implying annual growth of 12.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MGH    MAAS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $4.16

Wilsons rates ((MGH)) as Overweight (1) –

Maas Group has reported a robust first half result, comments Wilsons, with earnings ahead of expectations on stronger quarry revenue. Earnings of $97m reflected 47% year-on-year growth, 2% ahead of the broker's forecast. 

Net profits of $39m missed the mark for Wilsons by -4%, a result of higher depreciation and amortisation expenses, while net debt increased 23% year-on-year to $450m.

Full year guidance was retained. The Overweight rating is unchanged and the target price increases to $4.44 from $4.41.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $4.44 Current Price is $4.16 Difference: $0.28
If MGH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.50 cents and EPS of 25.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.12.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 29.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.40%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.91.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MQG    MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $192.01

Goldman Sachs rates ((MQG)) as Neutral (3) –

Macquarie Group's December-quarter result appears to have sharply missed Goldman Sach's forecast, its annuity businesses and market-facing businesses both missing expectations.

The group's capital surplus fell to $9.7bn from $10.5bn, as expected.

EPS forecasts fall -3.9% for FY24; -5.6% for FY25; and -9.7% for FY26.

While short-term indicators are weak, the broker believes the medium-term outlook to be positive given the company's strong global exposure to the decarbonisation theme.

Neutral rating retained. Target price rises to $183.82 from $180.80 to reflect marking-to-market and roll-forward valuation.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $183.82 Current Price is $192.01 Difference: minus $8.19 (current price is over target).
If MQG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $182.48, suggesting downside of -5.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 625.00 cents and EPS of 896.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.43.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 933.0, implying annual growth of -31.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 645.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 645.00 cents and EPS of 1066.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.01.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1098.2, implying annual growth of 17.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 684.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.5.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NWH    NRW HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.84

Moelis rates ((NWH)) as Buy (1) –

First half earnings (EBITDA) for NRW Holdings exceeded forecasts by Moelis and consensus aided by margin improvement in the Civil and Minerals, Energy & Technologies (MET) divisions.

The broker highlights contract award momentum, margin improvement, and reaffirmed FY24 guidance, along with growing certainty in secured work with $4.0bn in the order book for FY25 and beyond.

A fully franked interim dividend of 6.5cps will be paid.

The broker's $3.40 target and Buy rating are unchanged.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $2.84 Difference: $0.56
If NWH meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 5.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 25.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.9, implying annual growth of 41.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 22.00 cents and EPS of 25.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.05.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.2, implying annual growth of 4.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 20.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PME    PRO MEDICUS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $87.56

Moelis rates ((PME)) as Hold (3) –

First half results for Pro Medicus met forecasts by Moelis, but were at the lower end of the consensus range.

Despite a significant step-up in costs, the analyst points out the earnings (EBIT) margin continued to expand to 66% from 65.4% in the previous corresponding period.

The broker's FY24-25 EPS estimates remain broadly unchanged, while the FY26 estimate increases by 7% to capture pricing uplift across the seven contract renewals expected over the course of FY25/26.

Moelis believes its new forecasts are already captured in the current share price, and the $99.57 target and Hold rating are unchanged.

A fully franked interim dividend of 18cps was declared, in line with the broker's forecast.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $99.57 Current Price is $87.56 Difference: $12.01
If PME meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 75.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 115.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.1, implying annual growth of 27.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 118.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 91.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 95.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.8, implying annual growth of 30.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Wilsons rates ((PME)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons reminds investors why it still admires Pro Medicus, despite an overdone, negative share price reaction in response to "decent" 1H results.

The first half still delivered more than 30% earnings (EBIT) growth, in line with the analyst's forecast, with a material lift in future (locked-in) contracted pipeline revenue. There's also thought to be potential for further upside.

The company defies normal valuation rules, explains the broker, because of incredible, sustained growth and phenomenal operating margins of more than 65%, along with an immense market opportunity.

The target rises to $93 from $81.20 and the Market Weight rating is maintained. Wilsons notes the company will likely enter the ASX100 at the March rebalance.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $93.00 Current Price is $87.56 Difference: $5.44
If PME meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $77.30, suggesting downside of -11.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 39.40 cents and EPS of 77.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 112.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 74.1, implying annual growth of 27.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 37.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 118.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.50 cents and EPS of 97.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 90.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.8, implying annual growth of 30.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.5.

Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SEK    SEEK LIMITED

Jobs & Skilled Labour Services – Overnight Price: $25.38

Goldman Sachs rates ((SEK)) as Sell (5) –

Seek's December half earnings (EBITDA) and net profit after tax disappointed Goldman Sachs by -6% and -9% respectively and management cut FY24 earnings guidance -3% to the midpoint (a -5% miss on consensus forecasts).

Weaker Australia, New Zealand and Asia volumes were to blame and overwhelmed a slight beat on operating expenditure.

On the upside, A&NZ yields outpaced and the broker expects volumes will return to growth in FY25, leading the company to double-digit earnings (EBITDA) growth in FY25.

EPS forecasts are revised down -4% to -7% across FY24 to FY26 to reflect weaker forecast Asian earnings.

Sell rating retained. Target price falls -6% to $23.50 from $24.90.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $23.50 Current Price is $25.38 Difference: minus $1.88 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $26.70, suggesting upside of 5.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 38.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of -82.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 50.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 78.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.5, implying annual growth of 41.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

STX    STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.29

Goldman Sachs rates ((STX)) as Buy (1) –

Strike Energy's South Erregulla has failed to produce expected gas rates during flow testing and Goldman Sachs surmises this may suggest a gas-water contact in the reservoir.

While disappointing and not definitive, raising uncertainty, the broker retains the faith, observing the company is trading at a -30% to net tangible assets; and is yielding cash flow from Walyering, positioning it well to support ongoing drilling and development in the Perth Basin.

Buy rating and 50c target price retained.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.29 Difference: $0.21
If STX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 72% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 56.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 96.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 48.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 48.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.7, implying annual growth of 183.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM    SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV – Overnight Price: $0.23

Goldman Sachs rates ((SWM)) as Sell (5) –

Seven West Media's December-half earnings (EBITDA) and net profit after tax missed Goldman Sachs's forecasts by -17% and -22% respectively as weak TV advertising markets persisted into 2024 and costs slightly outpaced.

Management's FY24 guidance suggests results are likely to fall at the bottom of the guidance range.

On the upside, the TV ad market decline is showing signs of easing and the company's TV add share grew 1.7% to 41% in the December half.

The broker revises down its TV forecasts for the June half.

Sell rating retained. Target price falls -11% to 24c.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.01
If SWM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.28, suggesting upside of 21.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.83.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.9, implying annual growth of -37.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.5, implying annual growth of -6.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $11.50

Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Jarden is positively rapturous about Temple & Webster's 1H24  better than expected results as market share improvements come through ahead of schedule and  margins improved.

The results vindicate the stock as Jarden's preferred small cap pick with management able to handle inflation costs better than the competition.

EPS forecasts are lifted circa 53% for FY24 and 10% for FY26, with FY25 unchanged. Buy rating retained with a material upgrade in the target to $12.67 from $8.56.

This report was published on February 13, 2024.

Target price is $12.67 Current Price is $11.50 Difference: $1.17
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.91, suggesting upside of 3.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 191.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of -32.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 250.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 157.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.1, implying annual growth of 76.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 142.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

VVA    VIVA LEISURE LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $1.53

Petra Capital rates ((VVA)) as Buy (1) –

Viva Leisure has reported first half revenue of $79.1m, earnings of $16.6m and net profits of $4.8m, alongside a full year guidance range of $162-164m in revenue and $35.0-35.5m in earnings. 

Full year guidance proved a beat to the broker's expectations, with revnue 3% higher and earnings 1.1% higher than Petra Capital had anticipated. The broker has upwardly revised full year forecasts to align.

The broker considers the second half a likely crucial catalyst for the company, with the outcome of its strategic review expected within the period. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $2.52 from $2.44.

This report was published on February 16, 2024.

Target price is $2.52 Current Price is $1.53 Difference: $0.985
If VVA meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 64% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 12.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.69.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.90.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

---

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide experienced, intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface.

This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

Decisions about inclusions in this Report are made independently of the providers of stock market research and at full discretion of the team of journalists responsible for content at FNArena. Inclusion does not equal endorsement, in any way, shape or form. This Report is provided for informational purposes only.

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms