Daily Market Reports | Aug 20 2024
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.
Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.
Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.
The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.
The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.
COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
AGL AOV APZ ARF ASK ASX BWP (2) CAR CBA (2) COF COH CPU (2) CQE (3) CQR DHG (2) DXI EGG EVN GMG GQG HDN (2) IMM LIC (2) LRS MDR MFG NAB (2) NDO (2) NEU NWH (3) ORA ORG PDI PLS (2) PME PWH (2) PXA PYC REA RGN SVW TLS TWE VVA WDS (2) WGX
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities - Overnight Price: $11.98
Goldman Sachs rates ((AGL)) as Neutral (3) -
Goldman Sachs found the FY24 result from AGL Energy was strong and ahead of expectations. The company has a $250m agreement to acquire Firm Power and Terrain Solar, which owns a pipeline of 6.1 gigawatts of battery developments and 2 gigawatts of solar and wind developments.
Although the prioritisation of battery developments that are targeting 7-11% returns should offer strong earnings growth once operational, the broker is cautious about limited free cash flow and the risk of gas portfolio margin compression.
Estimates for EBITDA are raised by 3% for FY25 and FY26 and the target lifted 9% to $11.30. Neutral.
This report was published on August 14, 2024.
Target price is $11.30 Current Price is $11.98 Difference: minus $0.68 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.22, suggesting upside of 1.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.48.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.2, implying annual growth of -11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.67%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.98.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.3, implying annual growth of 4.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AOV AMOTIV LIMITED
Automobiles & Components - Overnight Price: $10.71
Goldman Sachs rates ((AOV)) as Buy (1) -
The FY24 result from Amotiv, which was in line with May guidance, appears to Goldman Sachs to have alleviated some concerns regarding new business despite the challenging environment.
As the second half impacts from Toyota have now been cycled, the broker expects topline growth will return as volatility in new vehicles is reduced and supply stabilises.
Goldman Sachs retains a Buy rating and $13 target, assessing the stock is trading at a cyclical low while market challenges persist and, as this abates in 2025, it should benefit.
This report was published on August 14, 2024.
Target price is $13.00 Current Price is $10.71 Difference: $2.29
If AOV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 20.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.11%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.39.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of 19.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 89.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.03.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.8, implying annual growth of 11.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 47.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
APZ ASPEN GROUP LIMITED
Real Estate - Overnight Price: $2.15
Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Buy (1) -
Aspen Group delivered FY24 operating earnings above guidance and FY25 guidance was similarly upgraded. Residential rental income was up 36% year on year.
This was a function, Moelis notes, of strong organic growth, the completion of refurb projects, most notably across the Perth apartment portfolio, and the acquisition of apartment buildings in Sydney and Melbourne.
The estimated market rent for Aspen's assets at reporting date was 12% higher than the FY24 average. Aspen's current share price remains attractive in Moelis' view, amidst an under-supplied housing market.
Target rises to $2.53 from $2.48, Buy retained.
This report was published on August 19, 2024.
Target price is $2.53 Current Price is $2.15 Difference: $0.38
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 15.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.14.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.10 cents and EPS of 16.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.35.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARF ARENA REIT
REITs - Overnight Price: $3.98
Moelis rates ((ARF)) as Hold (3) -
Arena REIT's pre-reported results were in line with Moelis' estimates. Operator occupancy remained at its highest level on record,
following a substantial uptick in government stimulus in July'23.
The equity raise should allow ample headroom for Arena to keep its development pipeline well stocked over the medium to long term, Moelis suggests.
The broker continues to note Arena's high portfolio and earnings quality, sound business model and strong track record for operational and capital management. At a 19% premium to net tangible asset valuation Moelis sees the current share price as fair.
Target rises to $3.89 from $3.85, Hold retained.
This report was published on August 16, 2024.
Target price is $3.89 Current Price is $3.98 Difference: minus $0.09 (current price is over target).
If ARF meets the Moelis target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.04, suggesting upside of 1.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.30 cents and EPS of 18.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.28.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.5, implying annual growth of 15.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.50 cents and EPS of 19.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.3, implying annual growth of 4.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ASK ABACUS STORAGE KING
REITs - Overnight Price: $1.20
Jarden rates ((ASK)) as Neutral (3) -
Abacus Storage King has provided a solid operational update, Jarden suggests, with funds from operations underpinned by strong performance across portfolios while the overall sector continues to benefit from structural tailwinds.
Underlying FY25 guidance looks a little soft but the broker believes guidance could prove conservative. The capital structure is in good shape and should provide the REIT with future growth optionality in the medium term.
Trading at a -21% discount to updated net tangible asset value, but with a relatively low yield, Jarden sees the risk-reward as fairly balanced. Neutral and $1.30 target retained.
This report was published on August 19, 2024.
Target price is $1.30 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $0.1
If ASK meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.37, suggesting upside of 15.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 6.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.75.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.3, implying annual growth of -40.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.05.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.4, implying annual growth of 1.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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