Daily Market Reports | Oct 16 2024
This story features AGL ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AGL
An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.
In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
AGL ALD ANZ BEN BOQ BPT (2) CBA COE (3) CU6 FMG IPL JDO KAR (2) MQG NAB ORG (2) SFR SMP STO (2) STX VEA WBC WDS (2) WEB
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $11.85
Goldman Sachs rates ((AGL)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
The target for AGL Energy rises to $11.50 from $11.30. Neutral.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.85 Difference: minus $0.35 (current price is over target).
If AGL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.24, suggesting upside of 3.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.34.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 96.2, implying annual growth of -9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.81.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 97.4, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ALD AMPOL LIMITED
Consumer Products & Services – Overnight Price: $28.46
Goldman Sachs rates ((ALD)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
The broker’s 2025 gasoline and diesel crack spread estimates are reduced by -12% and -18%, respectively, to US$11/bbl and US$16/bbl.
For Ampol, the analysts highlight the difficulty of estimating the Lytton refining margin in the September quarter (gross margin forecast a of US$5/bbl), which was impacted by a planned turnaround.
The target falls to $32.90 from $35.60. Buy.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $32.90 Current Price is $28.46 Difference: $4.44
If ALD meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.34, suggesting upside of 17.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 150.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.90.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.9, implying annual growth of -25.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 111.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 113.00 cents and EPS of 162.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.57.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 210.3, implying annual growth of 23.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 184.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.5.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ANZ ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
Banks – Overnight Price: $31.15
Goldman Sachs rates ((ANZ)) as No Rating (-1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of ANZ Bank.
The bank’s former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $31.15. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $27.41, suggesting downside of -12.0%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.2, implying annual growth of -5.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 164.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 221.1, implying annual growth of -1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BEN BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED
Banks – Overnight Price: $11.91
Goldman Sachs rates ((BEN)) as No Rating (-1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of Bendigo & Adelaide Bank.
The former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $11.91. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $10.45, suggesting downside of -12.3%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 83.8, implying annual growth of -13.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 64.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 82.9, implying annual growth of -1.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BOQ BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED
Banks – Overnight Price: $6.27
Goldman Sachs rates ((BOQ)) as No Rating (-1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of Bank of Queensland.
The former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $6.27. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $5.38, suggesting downside of -14.2%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.1, implying annual growth of 136.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.9, implying annual growth of -2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 35.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.
Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
BPT BEACH ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.25
Goldman Sachs rates ((BPT)) as Sell (5) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
For Beach Energy, the analysts forecast production of 5.2 mmboe in the September quarter, 4% above the consensus estimate.
The broker will be looking for updates on Waitsia pre-commissioning activities, and progress for the Thylacine well connection as part of the Otway Offshore project.
Sell rating retained. Target price falls to $1.26 from $1.44.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $1.26 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.015
If BPT meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 18.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.89.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.23.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((BPT)) as Overweight (2) –
Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.
The broker’s Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.
Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.
Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Beach Energy, Jarden forecasts an ongoing negative impact in the Copper Basin from weather-related problems in the prior quarter.
The Overweight rating is retained, and the target is reduced to $1.34 from $1.55.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $1.34 Current Price is $1.25 Difference: $0.095
If BPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 18.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 17.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.07.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 7.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 28.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 11.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.41.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.3, implying annual growth of 33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 7.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CBA COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA
Banks – Overnight Price: $139.29
Goldman Sachs rates ((CBA)) as No Rating (-1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of CommBank.
The former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $139.29. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $101.02, suggesting downside of -27.5%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 594.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 475.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 610.4, implying annual growth of 2.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 487.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.8.
Market Sentiment: -1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
COE COOPER ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $0.21
Goldman Sachs rates ((COE)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
For Cooper Energy in the September quarter, the analysts forecast production of 1.1 mmboe, 6% above the consensus estimate.
The 25 cent target and Neutral rating are retained.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.04
If COE meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 26.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.65.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 3.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.52.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 225.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((COE)) as Overweight (2) –
Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.
The broker’s Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.
Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.
Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Cooper Energy, Jarden notes upside risk to FY25 production guidance due to higher average daily production rates at Orbost than previously forecast.
The Overweight rating is retained, and the target is increased to 26c from 25c.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $0.26 Current Price is $0.21 Difference: $0.05
If COE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 26.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 70.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.35.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 225.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Wilsons rates ((COE)) as Overweight (1) –
Wilsons flags the target price for Cooper Energy is under review with the rating retained at Overweight.
The broker highlights it initiated coverage in September with expectations of an improvement in production. The company reported 1Q25 production up 17% on 4Q24 due to operational modifications at the gas plant.
Higher production by volume has also permitted increased spot price sales and higher gas sale prices over the period, the analyst notes.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $0.21. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $0.27, suggesting upside of 26.2%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3.
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.6, implying annual growth of 225.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CU6 CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED
Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $6.81
Wilsons rates ((CU6)) as Overweight (1) –
Wilsons observes Clarity Pharmaceuticals’ announcement for the next steps of its 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA agent in prostate cancer post the FDA meeting.
The company and FDA have agreed on a Phase 3 trial AMPLIFY trial which will recruit 220 patients.
Wilsons also highlights the appointment of Michelle Parker as the new CEO and Dr Colin Biggin becoming the COO to concentrate more on the supply chain and manufacturing operations as the company moves closer to commercialisation.
Overweight rating retained.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $8.48 Current Price is $6.81 Difference: $1.67
If CU6 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY24:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 50.82.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 39.82.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FMG FORTESCUE LIMITED
Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $20.47
Jarden rates ((FMG)) as Underweight (4) –
Jarden observes the powerhouse of earnings for Fortescue, the direct shipping of ore from Pilbara is now experiencing a decline in reserves.
The broker points to a fall of -116mt in the year ending June 30, which accumulates to a decline in reserves annually of -24% since 2018.
The decline is not a concern in isolation, but the division does generate cash for development of the energy division.
Target price $16.81 with an Underweight rating remaining.
This report was published on October 11, 2024.
Target price is $16.81 Current Price is $20.47 Difference: minus $3.66 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting downside of -10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 194.71 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.51.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 89.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.4.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 EPS of 104.01 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.68.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 169.0, implying annual growth of -6.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 88.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IPL INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED
Agriculture – Overnight Price: $2.98
Goldman Sachs rates ((IPL)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs retains a positive outlook on explosive earnings for Incitec Pivot, although the broker explains the forecasts for FY26 to FY28 EBIT of around $508 to $526m remain below the company’s estimate of $625m.
The company is maintaining a review of the fertiliser assets including being sold in part or totality. Options for monetising land assets is also being explored, the broker highlights.
Buy rating. Target price falls -2% to $3.30.
This report was published on October 11, 2024.
Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.98 Difference: $0.32
If IPL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.68.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.7, implying annual growth of -35.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.90.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of 7.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.9.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
JDO JUDO CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.76
Goldman Sachs rates ((JDO)) as Buy (1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of Judo Capital.
The former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $1.76. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $1.75, suggesting downside of -0.7%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of 15.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 11.7, implying annual growth of 60.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.1.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
KAR KAROON ENERGY LIMITED
Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $1.55
Goldman Sachs rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
For Karoon Energy in the September quarter, the analysts will be looking for progress on Who Dat South drilling which could hit target depth in November.
The target falls to $2.03 from $2.20. Buy.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $2.03 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.48
If KAR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 47.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.98 cents and EPS of 39.31 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.44%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.94.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.5.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.55 cents and EPS of 42.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.09%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.66.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.1.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((KAR)) as Buy (1) –
Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.
The broker’s Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.
Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.
Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Karoon Energy, Jarden forecasts both Brazil and Gulf of Mexico production will be at the bottom end of the guidance ranges due to weather, infrastructure and commercial factors.
The Buy rating is retained, and the target is reduced to $2.10 from $2.20.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.55 Difference: $0.55
If KAR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.28, suggesting upside of 47.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.58.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.5.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.74.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.8, implying annual growth of -14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 4.1.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MQG MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $234.68
Goldman Sachs rates ((MQG)) as No Rating (-1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of Macquarie Group.
The former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $234.68. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $209.62, suggesting downside of -10.7%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1083.3, implying annual growth of 18.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 692.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1197.6, implying annual growth of 10.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 748.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
NAB NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED
Banks – Overnight Price: $38.18
Goldman Sachs rates ((NAB)) as No Rating (-1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of National Australia Bank.
The former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $38.18. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $32.77, suggesting downside of -14.2%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 223.5, implying annual growth of -5.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 167.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.1.
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.9, implying annual growth of 2.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 170.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7.
Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ORG ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $10.14
Goldman Sachs rates ((ORG)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
For Origin Energy in the Sptember quarter, the analysts estimate total revenue improved by 5% quarte-on-quarter supported by improving spot LNG prices and elevated lagged Japan Crude Cocktail (JCC) oil prices, aiding ongoing strong contracted pricing.
The target falls to $10.45 from $10.75. Buy.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $10.45 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: $0.31
If ORG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 68.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.91.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.0, implying annual growth of -11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 65.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.60.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.9, implying annual growth of -14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight (3) –
Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.
The broker’s Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.
Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.
Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Origin Energy, Jarden forecasts flat APLNG production, with lower domestic gas volumes partly offsetting higher LNG production and sales volumes.
The target falls to $9.90 from $10. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight on valuation following a 7.5% rally in share price over the past five weeks, explains Jarden.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $10.14 Difference: minus $0.24 (current price is over target).
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $10.63, suggesting upside of 4.8%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 73.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.87.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.0, implying annual growth of -11.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.
Forecast for FY26:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 55.00 cents and EPS of 58.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.42%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.27.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.9, implying annual growth of -14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SFR SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED
Copper – Overnight Price: $10.84
Wilsons rates ((SFR)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –
Wilsons notes Sandfire Resources’ share price has rallied 35% since the broker upgraded the company to Overweight in late July.
A rebound in copper prices and an improving reputation for reliability of delivery are believed to be factors for the rally.
Sandfire Resources is due to report 1Q25 results on Oct 29. Wilsons anticipates another solid quarter, including copper production of 27kt.
The stock is downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight with a target price of $9.90. Further Chinese stimulus is acknowledged as a potential upside risk.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Target price is $9.90 Current Price is $10.84 Difference: minus $0.94 (current price is over target).
If SFR meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.25, suggesting downside of -14.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 40.67 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.66.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 55.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.43.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.4, implying annual growth of 54.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 17.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.9.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SMP SMARTPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $0.70
Canaccord Genuity rates ((SMP)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –
Canaccord Genuity initiates research on full-service EFTPOS provider SmartPay with a Buy rating.
As per thr broker, the company holds a leading and relatively mature position in the New Zealand terminal rental market but management expects to launch a vertically integrated payments product in New Zealand during the December quarter.
In FY21, SmartPay also expanded into the Australian processing market in partnership with Cuscal.
Shares in SmartPay are unjustifiably trading near 12-month lows, in Canaccord’s view, especially when considering embedded growth optionality in New Zealand.
A $1.40 target price is set.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.7
If SMP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.38 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 50.69.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.41.
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
STO SANTOS LIMITED
NatGas – Overnight Price: $7.11
Goldman Sachs rates ((STO)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
For Santos, the analysts see a slight risk of a production miss in the September quarter due to lower PNG LNG exports in September, and lower domestic gas production from an apparent shutdown at Varanus Island.
The target falls to $8.00 from $8.65. Buy.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $0.89
If STO meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 33.26 cents and EPS of 60.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.76.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 28.72 cents and EPS of 40.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.42.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of -3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((STO)) as Overweight (2) –
Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.
The broker’s Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.
Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.
Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Santos, Jarden predicts higher realised LNG prices should help offset the impact of lower volumes and lower oil prices.
The target slips to $8.00 from $8.10. Overweight.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $7.11 Difference: $0.89
If STO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $8.21, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 30.69 cents and EPS of 54.57 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.32%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.03.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 61.8, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.5.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 29.18 cents and EPS of 46.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.27.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.9, implying annual growth of -3.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
STX STRIKE ENERGY LIMITED
NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.23
Goldman Sachs rates ((STX)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
For Strike Energy in the September quarter, the analysts will be seeking updates on Erregulla Deep flow testing results, and progress towards financial investment decisions for the West Erregulla Gas Plant and South Erregulla Power Plant.
The Buy rating and 25 cent target are retained.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.23 Difference: $0.02
If STX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 26.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 115.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.0, implying annual growth of 212.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.0.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.33.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.8, implying annual growth of -20.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.8.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
VEA VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED
Crude Oil – Overnight Price: $2.93
Goldman Sachs rates ((VEA)) as Buy (1) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
The broker’s 2025 gasoline and diesel crack spread estimates are reduced by -12% and -18%, respectively, to US$11/bbl and US$16/bbl.
For Viva Energy, the analysts forecast a US$8.5/bbl Geelong gross margin in Q3, a -US$1.4/bbl fall against Q2, largely due to a collapse in clean-dirty freight spreads.
The target falls to $3.50 from $3.60. Buy.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.93 Difference: $0.57
If VEA meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 25.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.16.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.9, implying annual growth of 9460.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.95.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WBC WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION
Banks – Overnight Price: $31.56
Goldman Sachs rates ((WBC)) as No Rating (-1) –
As a result of analyst Andrew Lyons leaving the employ of Goldman Sachs, the broker is suspending research coverage of Westpac.
The former rating, target, and forecasts no longer apply.
This report was published on October 15, 2024.
Current Price is $31.56. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $27.92, suggesting downside of -11.5%(ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY24:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.2, implying annual growth of -6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 168.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.
Forecast for FY25:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 192.0, implying annual growth of -0.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 159.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.4.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WDS WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED
NatGas – Overnight Price: $24.79
Goldman Sachs rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –
Goldman Sachs updates its forecasts for stocks under coverage in the Energy sector from available production data for the September quarter and marks-to-market for commodity prices and currency.
For commodity prices, the broker lowers its Brent crude and refining margin estimates and raises the spot LNG price forecast.
The broker’s near-term Brent price forecast falls to US$70-85/bbl from US$75-90/bbl though a temporary peak at US$90/bbl is possible from potential disruptions to Iranian supply.
Goldman’s JKM gas price forecast rises by 18% to US$13.5/mmbtu over the second half of 2024 and by 15% to US$12.2/mmbtu over 2025.
In previewing September quarter operational results for Woodside Energy, the analysts see potential for positive surprises due to
stronger LNG exports and oil production from Sangomar.
The target falls to $27.20 from $31.70. The Neutral rating is unchanged.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $27.20 Current Price is $24.79 Difference: $2.41
If WDS meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.85, suggesting upside of 12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 175.36 cents and EPS of 217.69 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.39.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 183.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 93.73 cents and EPS of 117.91 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.02.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.0, implying annual growth of -35.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Neutral (3) –
Jarden maintains its US$80/bbl near-term Brent oil price forecast despite material upside and downside risks from rising tensions in the Middle East. Upside should a supply disruption occur and downside if no disruption eventuates, explain the analysts.
The broker’s Brent oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are also kept at US$80/bbl.
Separately, the broker notes rising market concerns about the global economic growth outlook (particularly the impact of China). Media reports Saudi Arabia is threatening to increase output has also weakened sentiment.
Regarding upcoming quarterly results for Woodside Energy, Jarden forecasts a 15% increase in quarterly production driven largely by the first full quarter contribution from Sangomar.
Revenues could surprise on the upside, notes the broker, if management ramped-up LNG trading activity to take advantage of higher LNG prices.
The Neutral rating and $26.60 target are maintained.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $24.79 Difference: $1.81
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $27.85, suggesting upside of 12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY24:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 191.99 cents and EPS of 239.61 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.35.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 246.5, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 183.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.1.
Forecast for FY25:
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 120.94 cents and EPS of 188.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 159.0, implying annual growth of -35.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 117.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.6.
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WEB WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED
Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $4.60
Wilsons rates ((WEB)) as Overweight (1) –
WEB Travel’s updated 1H25 guidance was viewed as “negative and disappointing” by the Wilsons’ analyst and raises many questions around why the European margins have been pressured, and why WebBeds has not met volume targets.
The analyst emphasises the update contrasted to the end of August AGM and will result in earnings, rating and target price reviews.
This report was published on October 14, 2024.
Target price is $9.59 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $4.99
If WEB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 108% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.07, suggesting upside of 53.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.4, implying annual growth of 50.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 37.6, implying annual growth of 32.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.
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