Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Feb 19, 2025

This story features A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: A2M

The company is included in ASX50, ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely “regularly” depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena’s team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

A2M   ARB (2)   AZJ   BEN   BRI   BSL   CEN   GPT   HUB (3)   IFM   IGO   IPX   MAH (2)   NUZ   PNR   S32   SBM   SDV   SGF   SHL   SHV   SPZ   TPW   WBC   WDS   WGX   XRF  

A2M    A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED

Dairy – Overnight Price: $7.31

Jarden rates ((A2M)) as Overweight (2) –

A2 Milk Company delivered a strong operating result with headline infant formula milk (IMF) revenues ahead of Jarden’s estimates. The company upgraded full-year top line growth and margin guidance, and declared its first dividend.

The broker highlights this marks another creditable performance given the China IMF end market remains in structural decline, though the company’s protein segment continues to grow and now represents 20% of total value vs 18% in FY24.

The broker raised FY25-26 EPS forecasts by 6% and 2% respectively. Target price lifts to NZ$7.75, and Overweight maintained.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Current Price is $7.31. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $7.05, suggesting downside of -4.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 16.89 cents and EPS of 24.92 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.63 cents and EPS of 26.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.68%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.6, implying annual growth of 14.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ARB    ARB CORPORATION LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $39.88

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ARB)) as Hold (3) –

First half sales revenue from ARB Corp was slightly below Canaccord Genuity’s estimates. Despite strong gross margins, net profit was affected by costs and also below estimates.

The broker believes the issues are cyclical rather than structural and so the question is now about how long this weakness will prevail.

Improvement is not anticipated until the first half of FY26 and the broker emphasises the stock is not currently priced for any cyclical weakness. Hold maintained along with a $34.70 target.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $34.70 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: minus $5.18 (current price is over target).
If ARB meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 124.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.4, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 73.00 cents and EPS of 132.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.5, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((ARB)) as Overweight (1) –

ARB Corp’s 1H25 earnings modestly missed Wilsons’ expectations, primarily driven by higher operating expenses (opex) associated with investment in engineering to accelerate new product development.

The broker highlights strong 1H export sales growth is a result of the company’s investment in distribution and product expansion to support long-term growth, which remains its attractive feature.

The broker lowered FY25 EBITDA estimate by -6%, driven by lower sales and higher opex, and cut FY26 by -2% on higher opex.

Target price drops to $49.12 from $50.27, and Overweight maintained.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $49.12 Current Price is $39.88 Difference: $9.24
If ARB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $42.89, suggesting upside of 8.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 69.00 cents and EPS of 121.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.73%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 126.4, implying annual growth of 1.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 140.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 28.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.5, implying annual growth of 13.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 78.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AZJ    AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $3.19

Jarden rates ((AZJ)) as Neutral (3) –

Aurizon Holdings’ 1H25 net profit missed Jarden’s estimate, with the broker noting the result was characterised by a large miss on expectations for Bulk and benefit from a legal settlement. 

The broker sees the outlook as increasingly dominated by investors questioning the two paths forward for earnings growth. Can Bulk deliver on expectations in FY26 and beyond, and whether Containerised Freight and Land-bridging will meaningfully contribute in the near term?

Jarden remains cautious on the outlook for Bulk earnings contribution, with its EBIT estimates averaging -9% below consensus over FY25-27. Target price $3.2 and Neutral rating.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.01
If AZJ meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.41, suggesting upside of 4.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 19.10 cents and EPS of 23.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.7, implying annual growth of 7.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 20.50 cents and EPS of 26.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.43%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of 14.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BEN    BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED

Banks – Overnight Price: $11.03

Jarden rates ((BEN)) as Neutral (3) –

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank’s 1H25 result disappointed, with net interest margin (NIM) down -6bp sequentially to 1.88% vs Jarden’s forecast of 1.93%. The margin hit from mortgage competition of -4bp was similar to 2H24, while the residual drags were driven from wholesale funding mix (-3bp) and deposit pricing (-3bp).

The broker expects margin pressure to continue as the bank seeks above system volume growth in mortgages and being a price taker in the deposit space. The analyst has nudged down 2H NIM to 1.85%, with a sharper decline estimated in FY26.

Neutral rating maintained and target price is $11.5.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $11.03 Difference: $0.47
If BEN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $10.49, suggesting downside of -6.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 83.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.8, implying annual growth of -15.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 81.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.71%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.1, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 63.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.9.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BRI    BIG RIVER INDUSTRIES LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $1.26

Moelis rates ((BRI)) as Hold (3) –

Sequential improvement in Big River Industries’ 1H25 result is an encouraging update, Moelis suggests. Half-on-half gross profit margin improvement of 76bps was driven by pricing initiative, product mix, and cost control accompanied disciplined opex control. 

An interim fully franked 2cps dividend was declared and represented a 68% payout on 1H25 underlying earnings.

Residential exposure remains challenging for the stock though Moelis is encouraged by sequential improvement demonstrated by the latest result, as well as fresh easing cycle which has the potential to boost confidence and stimulate more starts and conversion.

The broker maintains the view that a quicker than anticipated recovery in residential market trading conditions would bring forward a more constructive operating environment for the company. Target falls to $1.37 from $1.68, Hold retained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $1.37 Current Price is $1.26 Difference: $0.105
If BRI meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 6.80 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.10.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BSL    BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED

Steel & Scrap – Overnight Price: $25.25

Jarden rates ((BSL)) as Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral (4) –

BlueScope Steel’s 1H25 result was at the high end of previously lowered guidance, boosted by -$25m in realised cost savings. The operating result highlighted operational challenges still remain, Jarden notes. Australia exceeded guidance/expectations, while North America disappointed.

Realising -$200m in sustained cost savings net of inflationary pressures requires flawless execution, the broker suggests, particularly given no accompanying significant item/permanent charges.

Jarden is constructive on BlueScope, but views its strategy, financial discipline and management team and earnings profile as already in the share price. Target rises to $23.20 from $21.80. Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $23.20 Current Price is $25.25 Difference: minus $2.05 (current price is over target).
If BSL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $27.44, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 93.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.89.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 100.2, implying annual growth of -44.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.8.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 173.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 202.1, implying annual growth of 101.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CEN    CONTACT ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $8.36

Jarden rates ((CEN)) as Buy (1) –

Contact Energy reported a “good” 1H25 result, Jarden suggests, and FY25 guidance remains unchanged. FY26 guidance is nevertheless softer than the broker’s expectations, mainly due to the company shifting load toward the lower-risk summer months, which attract lower prices.

The dividend is flat for now but Jarden still anticipates an uplift starting in FY27. The company’s four-year trailing average free cash flow for dividends policy, with an 80-100% payout, implies a NZ43c dividend at the bottom end in FY27, well above FY25’s and FY26’s guided NZ39c outlook.

Jarden has reduced FY26 earnings forecasts and its target to NZ$10.70 from $10.76, retaining Buy.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Current Price is $8.36. Target price not assessed.
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 35.60 cents and EPS of 21.36 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 39.14.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 35.60 cents and EPS of 32.41 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.26%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.80.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GPT    GPT GROUP

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $4.76

Jarden rates ((GPT)) as Neutral (3) –

GPT Group’s new management team has further clarified its strategy of growing external assets under management and improving returns, although execution in a crowded funds management market is now key, Jarden suggests.

Initial FY25 funds from operations guidance suggests less initial dilution than feared, but based on the headwind of interest expense, recent asset sales and lower trading profits, Jarden believes this could still prove ambitious.

After recent underperformance, expectations are arguably low, but the broker believes investors have attractive pure-play alternatives for Malls, an Office recovery or the interest rate sensitivity of funds.

The -7.5% discount to NTA and 4.9% dividend yield suggest to Jarden a risk-reward that is fairly balanced. Target rises to $5.10 from $4.95. Neutral retained.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.76 Difference: $0.34
If GPT meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.27, suggesting upside of 10.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 24.00 cents and EPS of 32.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.04%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 24.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 24.90 cents and EPS of 34.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.6, implying annual growth of 2.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HUB    HUB24 LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $84.39

Canaccord Genuity rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

Canaccord Genuity was impressed with the margin expansion in the first half result, which was driven by continued top-line growth and slightly reduced expenses growth.

The fact that Hub24 actually delivered on expectations was the main positive, the broker adds.

Against the current valuation, and given consensus estimates now extrapolate recent record flows, Canaccord Genuity retains a Hold rating. Target is raised to $85.00 from $74.65.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $85.00 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: $0.61
If HUB meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 112.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 75.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.3, implying annual growth of 91.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 73.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 80.00 cents and EPS of 141.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.95%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 59.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.4, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Moelis rates ((HUB)) as Hold (3) –

Hub24’s 1H25 earnings per share proved broadly in line with Moelis. Revised guidance and FY26 funds under administration targets reaffirm management’s confidence, while increasing platform adviser numbers continue to underpin growth.

Hub24 is set to deliver 32% earnings growth based on Moelis estimates over FY24-27. Assumptions are largely underpinned by strong growth in net inflows both organic and from large transition portfolios, and a decline in cost growth delivering positive operating leverage and earnings. 

Given the strong share price performance, on a valuation basis Moelis retains a Hold rating with an $88.58 target.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $88.58 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: $4.19
If HUB meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 54.80 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 74.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.3, implying annual growth of 91.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 73.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 74.40 cents and EPS of 153.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.4, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((HUB)) as Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight (3) –

Wilsons is pleased its call since August for Hub24’s valuation discount to close with Netwealth Group ((NWL)) has finally come to pass. However, the broker has now “reluctantly” downgraded the stock to Market Weight from Overweight on valuation grounds.

The company’s 1H25 result was healthy, the broker notes, but its forecast upgrades were limited due to sustained reduction in Pooled Cash balance as Hub24 enters 2H, increased headcount and higher tax rates.

Target price rises to $82 from $80.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $84.39 Difference: minus $2.39 (current price is over target).
If HUB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $83.71, suggesting upside of 2.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 51.00 cents and EPS of 116.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 72.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 111.3, implying annual growth of 91.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 73.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 67.50 cents and EPS of 151.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 55.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 127.4, implying annual growth of 14.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IFM    INFOMEDIA LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.49

Moelis rates ((IFM)) as Buy (1) –

Infomedia provided an update on its strategy to create alignment between its products, integrate its platforms with other key automotive software systems, pursue efficiencies and explore new growth opportunities. 

The 1H25 result displayed progress on efficiencies, Moelis notes, which has lead to cost control, disciplined capitalisation of development expenditure and high cash generation.

The company announced it will aim to undertake an on market share buyback of up to 18.8m shares. This is a significant capital management initiative, Moelis suggests.

The broker has not included the proposed acquisition of Tellegam nor buyback at this stage. Buy and $1.83 target retained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $1.83 Current Price is $1.49 Difference: $0.345
If IFM meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.87, suggesting upside of 28.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 6.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 5.4, implying annual growth of 59.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 7.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.10%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.9, implying annual growth of 27.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IGO    IGO LIMITED

Nickel – Overnight Price: $4.69

Jarden rates ((IGO)) as Buy (1) –

The reserves’ report mine plan determines a net present value for Greenbushes -50% below consensus. The primary drivers appear to be a marked step-up in processing and admin costs as well as discount rate (-10% vs the -8.8% average Jarden assumed).

Jarden’s target price for IGO Ltd falls to $5.52 from $6.07, incorporating the unit cost disclosures provided but offset by revisions to the broker’s cost of capital assumption. Buy rating retained. 

Jarden thinks IGO offers valuation support, increasingly presenting as a clean, lithium investment with increasingly direct exposure to arguably the best developed hard mine globally, but sees the company as very much in need of articulating a value proposition and a pathway to maximise its asset base.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $5.52 Current Price is $4.69 Difference: $0.83
If IGO meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.46, suggesting upside of 14.0%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 187.60.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -5.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 20.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.92%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IPX    IPERIONX LIMITED

Industrial Metals – Overnight Price: $4.68

Petra Capital rates ((IPX)) as Buy (1) –

IperionX secured up to US$47.1m in Department of Defense grant funding which further strengthens its balance sheet, but Petra Capital believes the more important takeaway is the credibility it brings.

According to Petra, governments typically favour large incumbents and in the US, they could have backed ATI or Howmet. IperionX’s win suggests the company has a superior product offering and the risks in due diligence stacked, and this will likely lead to sales contracts in defense.

Buy maintained with a slightly higher target price of $6.75 from $6.69.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $6.75 Current Price is $4.68 Difference: $2.07
If IPX meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 203.48.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 108.84.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAH    MACMAHON HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.31

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Macmahon’s first half results were in line with expectations, Canaccord Genuity notes. A step up in earnings in the second half is expected as well as an increase in free cash flow. FY25 guidance has been maintained for EBITA of $160-175m.

The quoted order book was a little softer than the broker anticipated, but the next few months should present potential contract opportunities, which in turn could provide a positive catalyst for the share price. Buy rating unchanged. Target is $0.37.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $0.37 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.06
If MAH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.10 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.08.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.40 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.96.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Petra Capital rates ((MAH)) as Buy (1) –

Macmahon’s underlying 1H25 result confirms a continuation of the positive operating momentum that has featured consistently over the last several years, Petra Capital notes. 

While higher one-off costs (acquisition) and a slight margin contraction in the mining segment did taint the result, the broker’s estimates  are broadly intact. 

Aside from the ex-civil margin contraction and high level of one-off costs, the broker comments 1H25 was generally positive.

Petra trims earnings forecasts and lowers its target to 39c from 43c. Buy retained.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $0.39 Current Price is $0.31 Difference: $0.08
If MAH meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.74.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.08.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NUZ    NEURIZON THERAPEUTICS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.14

Petra Capital rates ((NUZ)) as Buy (1) –

The US FDA has requested a single piece of additional information from Neurizon Therapeutics to resolve the clinical hold placed on NUZ-001 last month. There were no safety flags, and Petra Capital sees the data request as easily addressable and with minimal cost impact.

While this modestly delays the start of the potentially registrational HEALEY amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) trial by around six months, Petra sees the path to opening of an investigational new drug (IND), a pre-requisite to start US clinical trials, as materially de-risked.

Target falls to 45c from 47c, Buy retained.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.305
If NUZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 210% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.83.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.53.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PNR    PANTORO LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.14

Petra Capital rates ((PNR)) as Buy (1) –

Pantoro announced high grade mineralistion was identified in all the lodes drilled to date in Southern Mainfield area of Norseman Gold Project. The results include a bonanza gold intersection in the Maroroa reef.

Petra notes the drill programs at Mainfield are a key element of the company’s growth strategy to develop at least two additional underground mines at Norseman in the medium term to support targeted production up to 200kozpa.

Buy maintained with unchanged 18c target price.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $0.18 Current Price is $0.14 Difference: $0.04
If PNR meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.33.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.38.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

S32    SOUTH32 LIMITED

Mining – Overnight Price: $3.67

Canaccord Genuity rates ((S32)) as Sell (5) –

South32’s 1H25 result broadly beat Canaccord Genuity’s estimates but was in line with consensus. The interim dividend of US3.4c is a positive signal for investors but not sustainable in the broker’s view.

The broker believes the combination of alumina/aluminium trading at cyclical highs and the high capex spending program over the next few years, is likely to crimp the company’s ability to maintain this level of payout.

The company’s high net debt despite posting higher-than-expected earnings is a potential risk, the broker adds. Sell rating and $2.50 target maintained.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $3.67 Difference: minus $1.17 (current price is over target).
If S32 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $4.18, suggesting upside of 14.7%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.50 cents and EPS of 14.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.99.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 5.39 cents and EPS of 11.97 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 30.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 43.2, implying annual growth of 27.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 18.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM    ST. BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $0.26

Petra Capital rates ((SBM)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital reports St Barbara has lodged a formal objection against the 2024 tax assessment of 523m Kina (A$204m) by PNG’s Internal Revenue Commission stating it has been incorrectly applied to tax legislation with several errors identified. 

Using IRC assumptions, St. Barbara shows a tax assessment figure of just $26.6m, excluding penalties and after errors are removed. The Commissioner will now consider the formal objection.

Meanwhile, gold production is set to rise at Simberi this half with the new crusher installed, improving mill performance, and two new excavators on site, Petra notes. Buy and 67c target retained.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $0.67 Current Price is $0.26 Difference: $0.415
If SBM meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 163% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 63.75.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.14.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDV    SCIDEV LIMITED

Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers – Overnight Price: $0.52

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SDV)) as Buy (1) –

SciDev’s December quarter result was below Canaccord Genuity’s expectations but the company noted the outlook for 2025 appears upbeat.

The broker expects a return to growth in the March quarter, combined with some favourable working capital movements and potentially further materially positive news flow around the company’s PFAS treatment technology.

The analyst reduced forecasts across FY25-FY26 but still expects over 40% EBITDA growth in FY26, along with acceleration in free cash flow and margins.

Buy rating maintained but target lowered to 65c from 74c.

This report was published on January 31, 2025.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.13
If SDV meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.67.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.57.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SGF    SG FLEET GROUP LIMITED

Vehicle Leasing & Salary Packaging – Overnight Price: $3.45

Canaccord Genuity rates ((SGF)) as Buy (1) –

First half results from SG Fleet were in line with Canaccord Genuity estimates. The broker considers the results largely academic given the pending scheme meeting and court approvals regarding the acquisition by Pacific Equity Partners.

The broker also points out the results largely confirmed current industry trends, with strong demand in Australia for outsourced fleet services. Buy rating and $3.50 target.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.45 Difference: $0.05
If SGF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.78.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 19.00 cents and EPS of 29.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.51%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.90.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHL    SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $28.34

Jarden rates ((SHL)) as Neutral (3) –

Sonic Healthcare had already flagged a robust 1H25 trading update for the four months to October at its AGM, Jarden notes, which has continued on domestically, with Australian Medicare pathology and imaging benefits data up 16% and 10.7% respectively for the six months to December.

With a strong top line already anticipated, the broker expects the focus of the upcoming result to centre on margins.

Sonic has received anti-trust clearance for the LADR acquisition which is now expected to settle on 1 July. Jarden has delayed the contribution of this business to July from April, which drives diluted earnings per share revisions.

Target rises to $29.38 from $29.04, Neutral retained.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $29.38 Current Price is $28.34 Difference: $1.04
If SHL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $28.29, suggesting downside of -1.5%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 109.00 cents and EPS of 113.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.08.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 108.9, implying annual growth of 1.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 106.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 145.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.54.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 125.5, implying annual growth of 15.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 107.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SHV    SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED

Agriculture – Overnight Price: $4.86

Wilsons rates ((SHV)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons notes Select Harvest’s AGM included a mixed trading update, with the FY25 crop volume estimate below consensus, but more than offset by confirmation of further strength in the almond price.

The broker is encouraged by management’s confirmation that “China demand remains strong and adjusting to new price levels,” given the more challenging underlying consumer environment.

Market Weight rating maintained and target price is $4.64.

This report was published on February 19, 2025.

Target price is $4.64 Current Price is $4.86 Difference: minus $0.22 (current price is over target).
If SHV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 12.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 7.40 cents and EPS of 21.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.7, implying annual growth of 2053.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.5.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 25.20 cents and EPS of 45.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of 31.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SPZ    SMART PARKING LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $0.97

Petra Capital rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital notes Smart Parking’s 1H25 result was broadly in line with strong operational performances from New Zealand and better than expected progress from operations in Germany and Denmark.

The company announced the acquisition of Peak Parking domiciled in Austin, Texas which is expected to add US$4.5m EBITDA on a calender 2025 basis.

Petra likes the deal, particularly the approach management has taken to de-risk the entry into a large market.

The broker lifts FY25-26 EPS forecasts by 13% and 21% respectively. Target price rises to $1.63 from $1.03, and Buy maintained.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $1.63 Current Price is $0.97 Difference: $0.66
If SPZ meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 68% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.80.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.09.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $18.29

Canaccord Genuity rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Temple and Webster slightly beat Canaccord’s 1H25 revenue estimate and strongly beat EBITDA, but the broker highlights Jan/Feb trading and 2H margin guidance was soft.

The broker believes the company has never been in a better place financially and operationally, including strong $139m cash on hand and a market-leading position in online business.

The broker raised FY25-26 EPS forecasts and FY26 revenue estimate. Target price lifts to $17.5 from $13.0, and Buy rating retained.

This report was published on February 13, 2025.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $18.29 Difference: minus $0.79 (current price is over target).
If TPW meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.96, suggesting downside of -6.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 140.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.3, implying annual growth of 520.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 194.4.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 21.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 87.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.4, implying annual growth of 87.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 103.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WBC    WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION

Banks – Overnight Price: $32.31

Jarden rates ((WBC)) as Neutral (3) –

Westpac’s first quarter update was solid, Jarden suggests, featuring good volumes, slight margin compression and low bad debts, but weak capital generation. Looking forward, the bank has management change and a material IT transformation project to execute.

Jarden sees UNITE as an overdue but welcome comprehensive rewiring of Westpac architecture, likely involving significant execution risk and internal focus, but also sees risk of project creep, with much higher investment than has previously been indicated. 

Therefore, this result, while operationally pleasing, is in Jarden’s view somewhat redundant. The broker downgrades to Underweight from Neutral on valuation. Target unchanged at $31.20.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $31.20 Current Price is $32.31 Difference: minus $1.11 (current price is over target).
If WBC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting downside of -8.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 168.00 cents and EPS of 198.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 199.0, implying annual growth of -0.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 155.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 156.00 cents and EPS of 203.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.83%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 202.8, implying annual growth of 1.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 157.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WDS    WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $23.49

Jarden rates ((WDS)) as Overweight (2) –

Woodside Energy’s financial guidance release was overall negative versus consensus despite positive reserves changes, and while Jarden anticipates consensus earnings/dividend downgrades in 2024, the broker sees the earnings impacts limited to the 2024 year.

While there were some positives in the update, the higher than forecast 2024-25 restoration estimates have reduced Jarden’s target price to $26.60 from $26.90. The broker forecasts a final 2024 dividend of US46c, down from US59c.

With financial guidance now behind us, Jarden anticipates positive progress on selling down the Louisiana LNG project over the next few months as a key share price catalyst and maintains an Overweight rating.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $26.60 Current Price is $23.49 Difference: $3.11
If WDS meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $26.27, suggesting upside of 12.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 175.55 cents and EPS of 219.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 238.0, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 188.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 148.07 cents and EPS of 187.76 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.51.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 170.8, implying annual growth of -28.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

WGX    WESTGOLD RESOURCES LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $2.43

Canaccord Genuity rates ((WGX)) as Buy (1) –

Westgold Resources’ 1H25 EBITDA excluding one-off costs was $224m, notes Canaccord Genuity, missing its estimate by -8%. Net profit(loss) of -$28m also missed the broker’s $112m forecast mainly due to higher depreciation.

The broker has incorporated the result and increased the outstanding stamp duty payment in its sum-of-the-parts valuation to $75m from $64m. The analyst continues to forecast 2H25 free cash flow of $72m, increasing to $133m at current spot prices.

Buy rating maintained but target reduces slightly to $4.20 from $4.25.

This report was published on February 17, 2025.

Target price is $4.20 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $1.77
If WGX meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 73% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.69.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.82%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.65.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

XRF    XRF SCIENTIFIC LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.02

Canaccord Genuity rates ((XRF)) as Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy (1) –

XRF Scientific posted a “solid” first half result which Canaccord Genuity believes is stronger than it appears at face value. EBITDA and pre-tax profit were ahead of expectations, underpinned by resilient margins.

There is strength in international customer demand and added capabilities now considerably enhance cross-selling potential. The broker moves the rating to Buy from Speculative Buy and raises the target to $2.22 from $1.75.

This report was published on February 18, 2025.

Target price is $2.22 Current Price is $2.02 Difference: $0.2
If XRF meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.50 cents and EPS of 7.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.93.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 4.60 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.34.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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