Weekly Reports | Jun 02 2025
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Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday May 26 to Friday May 30, 2025
Total Upgrades: 7
Total Downgrades: 9
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.55%; Hold 32.26%; Sell 6.19%
In the week ending Friday, May 30, 2025, FNArena tracked seven upgrades and nine downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Following four consecutive weeks in which top ten percentage declines in average target prices and earnings forecasts outweighed gains, the tables below show positive changes to targets materially beat falls across the board, while earnings upgrades were significantly larger for the top five entries.
Average targets for COG Financial Services, Australia’s leading finance broker aggregator and equipment leasing business, and EVT Ltd, which operates across the entertainment, hospitality, and travel sectors, rose by around 17% and 13%, respectively.
COG experienced strong third quarter growth in its Novated Leasing business, helping lift profit by 9% compared to the prior year, slightly ahead of Morgans’ forecast.
Recent divestments of stakes in Centrepoint Alliance and Earlypay ((EPY)) are good initial moves to streamline the business and reduce complexity, in the broker’s view.
According to anecdotal commentary in the Australia Financial Review, the company’s new Chairman wants to prioritise insurance broking operations going forward.
Suggesting EVT Ltd is both underappreciated and undervalued, Morgan Stanley highlighted the cinema business is experiencing early stages of a recovery in earnings which should deliver meaningful positive EPS revisions over the next three years.
The analysts also have increased conviction in EVT’s hotel and property assets given a number of upcoming positive catalysts. According to the broker’s Australian property team, these assets are trading in line with the market value of the property portfolio, implying zero value attribution for the cinema business.
Telstra Group was next with an around 12% lift in average target after management outlined a vision at the investor day for FY30 and beyond, including an aim for sustainable, growing dividends over the coming five years.
Targeting opportunities in enhancing network monetisation, the telco also aims to leverage artificial intelligence to drive efficiency, along with other cost-outs as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/30/telstra-targets-sustainable-growing-dividends/
Web Travel follows Telstra on the positive target price ranking after all seven daily covered brokers in the FNArena database updated research last week following FY25 results. FNArena’s consensus target rose to $6.28 from $5.61.
While results were broadly in line with expectations, both Citi and Macquarie upgraded their ratings to Buy (equivalent).
Citi cited a robust trading outlook against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, while Macquarie is increasingly confident management will reach its $10bn FY30 target, noting greater visibility for medium-term revenue and earnings margins.
From the above changes to average targets, both Web Travel and COG Financial Services also appear in the upper reaches of positive change to average earnings forecasts. That table is headed up by Champion Iron, though that is the result of forecasts shifting into a new financial year. The previous year (ending in March) was not so great for the producer of iron ore.
Champion’s FY25 result proved in line at the P&L and net-debt levels, according to Macquarie, with the flat dividend half-on-half a positive surprise for the analyst as the second half payout ratio was increased.
Bell Potter expects earnings will continue to support dividends as free cash flow should improve from 2026 with major capital programs completed. It’s also felt government policy in the European Union and the growth in direct reduced iron (DRI) steel production will be supportive.
Appearing third and fourth on the earnings upgrade table, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and ALS Ltd received respective FY25 upgrades of 18% and 15% on average.
Fisher & Paykel’s FY25 result slightly beat forecasts by UBS and Morgan Stanley as higher margins offset slower hospital consumables growth in the second half and lower homecare revenues.
UBS noted FY25 benefited from a New Zealand dollar tailwind, but forecasts the company should also be able to maintain a significant P/E premium to A&NZ large-cap healthcare peers in reflection of superior EPS growth.
ALS Ltd’s FY25 result met Morgans’ expectations but the more important takeaway was the broker’s optimistic view on both the Life Sciences division and Commodities.
A 15% rise in mineral volumes at the start of FY26 was not a one-off, according to the analyst, and prices will follow volume gains as the market tightens.
Over at Macquarie, their analyst predicted the environmental area within Life Sciences will outperform, contributing to 20-40bps margin improvement in FY26. In the case of the Commodities division, flat margins are expected to continue in the first half of FY26 before recovery in the second half.
On the flipside, Propel Funeral Partners received the largest fall (-10.55%) in average target price from brokers, with Healius not far behind at -9.55%.
Following lower guidance for FY25, Ord Minnett lowered its EPS forecasts for Propel Funeral Partners materially across FY25-27 due to lower-than-expected funeral volumes courtesy of a weaker death rate and falling excess mortality post-covid.
Management’s guidance is for second half operating earnings to fall -17% short of market expectations, leading to near-term negative operating leverage, suggested the broker.
More positively, the analyst noted an ongoing opportunity for industry consolidation, with Propel holding $144m in funding capacity. Despite a lower target, Ord Minnett upgraded its rating to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds following a -16% share price decline over the past two months.
Morgans was the sole broker to update its earnings estimates for Healius last week, following early-May announcements of the Lumus Imaging divestment and a special dividend of approximately $300m.
The broker expressed caution given only 30% of flagged milestones have been completed to date and the analysts had previously estimated -$110m in cost savings/efficiencies required to deliver targeted high single digit operating margins by the end of 2027.
Leading agribusiness Elders is next on the list of negative earnings changes. As ever, the company remains subject to the vicissitudes of the Australian weather, and while the interim result showed an improvement, it still fell below broker expectations.
Offsetting the weakness in AgChem, the company experienced a higher-than-expected contribution from Real Estate, Agency (livestock, wool brokerage, and auctions) and Wholesale. For further details see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/28/elders-building-through-the-cycle-resilience/
In terms of negative change to average earnings forecasts, here WiseTech Global and Duratec were most prominent.
Wisetech’s most ambitious acquisition of Texas-based E2open for -US$2.1bn enables the company to serve the entire supply chain, shifting from freight forwarding and warehousing to an end-to-end global trade platform.
While some brokers remain circumspect on the takeover given E2open’s flagging financial performance over the last couple of years, others prefer to highlight the strategic and financial sense of the transaction as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/29/wisetechs-big-bold-bet-on-e2open/
FY25 revenue guidance by Duratec has slipped by -7% at the midpoint, with earnings guidance also down by -5% due to unfavourable and unseasonal weather, as well as delays in several defence and mining contracts, Ord Minnett explained.
Duratec specialises in the assessment, protection, remediation, and refurbishment of steel and concrete structures.
Management did point to a pickup in May and June, indicating to the broker more robust performance, while Shaw and Partners noted gross margins remain stable and the order book robust.
Shaw and Bell Potter remain Buy-rated on Duratec and Ord Minnett kept its Accumulate rating, one peg below Buy in its ranking system.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.55% of the total, versus 32.26% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 6.19%.
Upgrade
AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED ((AZJ)) Upgrade to Add from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/5/0
Morgans revisited the outlook for Aurizon Holdings following a weak narrative in the bulk and containerised freight segments, which it believes led to the $500m subordinated debt issue and cost-cut program.
The broker downgraded FY25 revenue forecast by -3%, and lowered EBITDA forecast by -8% to $1.52bn, which now sits below the company’s guidance range of $1.66-1.74bn. Lower volumes across both the network and coal divisions are the key reasons behind the downgrade.
The broker removed share buyback from its forecasts, expecting the company to instead pay down debt with free cash flow.
Target cut to $3.10 from $3.28. Rating upgraded to Add from Hold.
GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Genesis Minerals is acquiring Focus Minerals ((FML)) for -$250m in cash, and Macquarie believes it will help pursue mill expansions consistent with the ASPIRE 400 strategy.
The broker believes the deal is EPS accretive, with EV/resource metric reducing -25% after the transaction, pointing to attractive resource per unit.
The analyst is factoring in mill expansions at Leonora and Laverton to a group capacity of 7.0Mtpa by FY31 from 4.4Mtpa currently.
FY25-26 EPS forecasts cut by -1% on higher near-term capex and interest expenses.
Target price increased to $5.10 from $4.20 on increased group production outlook. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
See also GMD downgrade.
GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Macquarie notes the 3Q25 operational update from Goodman Group, with management confirming guidance for operational EPS growth of 9% in FY25 and a dividend per share of 30c, which is 10% higher than the broker’s and consensus estimates.
Management restated the key performance targets for data centres, but no new information was provided on lease contracts or capital partners. However, management highlighted they were in conversations with “several large customers” and “a range of potential investment partners.”
The broker notes assets under management grew 1.7% to $85.8bn in the previous quarter and are expected to increase further upon completion of a new partnership in North America.
The analyst retains an Outperform rating and $36.31 target price, although the quarterly update is likely to disappoint the market due to the absence of upgrades and lack of new news on data centre developments.
See also GMG downgrade.
PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED ((PFP)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Ord Minnett lowers its EPS forecasts for Propel Funeral Partners by -10.7% for FY25, -11.4% for FY26, and -10.8% for FY27 due to lower-than-expected funeral volumes. The analyst notes a weaker death rate and falling excess mortality post-covid.
Guidance is for H2 operating earnings (EBITDA) to fall -17% short of market expectations and -13% below the broker’s prior estimate, leading to near-term negative operating leverage.
While acknowledging covid-driven excess deaths are declining, Ord Minnett points to a longer-term structural tailwind from Australia’s ageing population. ABS data are projecting a death rate CAGR of 2.6% from 2025-2030 and 2.9% from 2031-2040.
The broker sees continued opportunity for industry consolidation, with Propel holding $144m in funding capacity and accounting for just 9% of a highly fragmented market.
Ord Minnett cuts its target to $5.50 from $6.05 but upgrades to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds following a -16% share price decline over the past two months.
TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED ((TLS)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Telstra Group announced its Connected Future30 strategy, focusing on cost discipline and efficiency, to deliver consistent growth to shareholders.
Macquarie notes $4.5bn of reductions were identified in operating and capital costs, and the company expects more than 50% of communication revenue to come from Network as a Product (NaaP by FY30.
The broker highlights AI was the focus and the company suggested it could scale AI without putting pressure on costs from higher cloud expenses. The company also announced price increases for Telsta-branded and Belong mobile postpaid plans.
EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 3% and by 11% for FY26.
Target increased to $5.28 from $3.93. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
See also TLS downgrade.
WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED ((WEB)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 5/1/1
Web Travel’s FY25 underlying EBITDA came in line with guidance. Underlying EBITDA margin for WebBeds fell -830bps to 42.3% due to a decline in total transaction volume revenue margin.
The company reiterated its expectation for a medium-term revenue margin of 6.5%, and Macquarie believes it should be the medium-term floor with much of FY25 headwinds now addressed.
Underlying WebBeds EBITDA margin return to 50% is now forecast to happen in FY27 vs FY26 earlier. The broker is forecasting 49% based on its lower forecast for FY27 of $6.7bn vs $7.0bn estimated.
EPS forecast for FY26 cut by -11%, but FY27-28 lifted by 9% and 11% respectively, mainly on revenue upgrades. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
Target price rises to $6.19 from $4.83 on valuation roll-forward and an increase in valuation multiple to the top end from mid-point.
Citi upgrades Web Travel to a Buy, High Risk from Neutral with a higher target price of $6.60 from $5.50, due to a robust trading outlook against a challenging macro backdrop.
The broker is notably upbeat on the strong advances in market share and management’s expectations to double profit post-FY25, which was broadly in line with expectations.
Higher conversion and increased sales to existing customers, by some 1300bps, underpinned bookings and total transaction value growth of 20% and 22% respectively, above market growth of 5%. Citi also points to a strong trading update for the first eight weeks of FY26.
The analyst lifts earnings (EBITDA) forecasts slightly for FY26FY28 by up to 3%, with higher earnings revisions in the outer years due to a higher level of confidence in Web Travel achieving the $10bn top-line FY30 target.
Downgrade
ADRIATIC METALS PLC ((ADT)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Adriatic Metals confirmed takeover speculation, stating it has allowed limited due diligence to Canadian miner Dundee Precious Metals.
Morgans notes Dundee has 28 days from May 21 to either make an offer or advise it doesn’t intend to proceed. The broker believes the company would be a logical acquirer due to its experience across base and precious metals projects in Eastern Europe.
The share price has rallied around 35% since the confirmation, prompting the broker to downgrade to Hold from Add.
Target price rises to $4.74 from $4.50 on the removal of Bosnia sovereign risk discount.
Transfer of coverage to Ross Bennett.
GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/0
Genesis Minerals is acquiring Focus Minerals’ ((FML)) Laverton gold project for -$250m to supply open pit and underground ore to its operating Laverton mill.
Citi reckons the deal is attractive on both dollars/resource basis and institutional value. The added resource further bolsters the case for a plant expansion or a new mill.
The broker highlights the company has done well, acquiring a project in trucking distance to its mills.
Neutral. Target lifts to $4.40 from $4.00.
See also GMD upgrade.
GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Ord Minnett lowers its target for Goodman Group to $30.80 from $33.50, reflecting reduced long-term revenue expectations from its data centre pipeline. The broker’s rating is also downgraded to Hold from Accumulate.
The broker notes lower-than-expected installed IT capacity conversion (32.5MW from 50MW), falling by circa -20% below prior assumptions.
This lower efficiency leads to a revised long-term pipeline valuation of $150bn (down from $190bn) and a cut in the broker’s powerbank valuation to $100bn. The analyst’s data centre segment’s per-share value is downgraded to $12.20 from $14.90.
Recent additions in Los Angeles and Hong Kong expand work-in-progress to $13.7bn, with data centres now comprising over half of Goodman’s active projects.
Ord Minnett believes the risk profile of the group’s data centre developments has increased without a corresponding lift in return metrics such as yield on cost.
The broker notes management maintained FY25 guidance.
See also GMG upgrade.
REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/6/1
Regis Resources is downgraded to Hold from Add due to recent share price performance, with a higher target price of $5.24 from $4.80.
Morgans notes the company continues to upgrade its resources and reserves, with the latest mineral resources at 7.5moz, up 600koz or 9% after mining depletion, the broker explains, and ore reserves of 1.7moz, up 690koz or 68% after mining depletion.
The analyst explains this is the fifth consecutive year of reserve growth for Duketon, and drilling at Tropicana infers additional underground potential, with ore reserves up to 641koz from 317koz including ore depletion.
SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Citi downgrades South32 to Neutral from Buy, with a lower target price of $3.40 from $3.70 and no change to EPS estimates.
The broker believes there is an ongoing challenge between improving dynamics in China and global macro headwinds. The Australian mining sector has underperformed by -30% since October 2023, the analyst states, despite a slight pick-up in the AUD commodity index.
This is viewed as unusual. Citi economists are flagging global growth to ease to 2.3% in 2025 from 2.8% in 2024, and the full impact of the tariffs has yet to be experienced.
The analyst expects South32 shares to remain cheaper for longer due to softer demand for ex-China metals.
WASHINGTON H. SOUL PATTINSON AND CO. LIMITED ((SOL)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Morgans raises its target for WH Soul Pattinson to $37.50 from $36.20 and downgrades to Hold from Add due to share price strength following interim results.
The broker’s investment thesis remains supported by consistent long-term performance, including 25 consecutive years of dividend growth. The dividend per share is forecast to rise to $1.02 in FY25 and reach $1.09 by FY27.
The group continues to benefit from strong liquidity, a diversified portfolio across equities, property, and private equity, and an uncorrelated return profile versus the market, highlights the analyst.
LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Downgrade to Hold from Add by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Morgans cut Lottery Corp’s FY25-26 revenue forecasts by -3.1% and -1.1%, respectively, due to weaker jackpot sequencing, mainly in Powerball.
EBIT margin downgraded by -30bps in FY25 and -10bps in FY26.
Target cut to $5.50 from $5.60. Rating downgraded to Hold from Add on recent share price strength.
TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED ((TLS)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/1
Ord Minnett maintains confidence in Telstra Group’s strategic direction following its investor day, despite the absence of formal quantitative guidance.
The broker forecasts operating earnings growth of around $300m annually, implying an 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for both EBITDA and EPS through FY30, driven by mobile, InfraCo, cost savings, and AI integration.
Capital management remains central to the investment case, suggests the analyst, with estimated share buybacks of $5-6bn over five years, even after factoring in dividends, capex, and NBN costs.
While dividend growth is expected to be sustained, a potential limitation on franking credits later in the decade could lead to partially franked distributions, notes Ord Minnett.
Target rises to $5.00 from $4.50. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy due to recent share price strength.
UBS notes Telstra Group presented a solid outlook at its Connected Future 30 strategy day, focusing on growing demand and its competitive advantages.
The broker believes the company’s 10% ROIC target by FY30 is achievable but remains cautious due to additional capex required in FY27-28 from spectrum auctions. Other headwinds include increased competition and softer government spending, but on the positive side, investment in AI could cut costs and aid productivity improvements.
The company lifted mobile monthly price for consumers/SMEs, but the net impact will be diluted by additional costs.
Rating downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target lifted to $4.60 from $4.50 on valuation roll-forward.
See also TLS upgrade.
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Negative Change Covered by at least 3 Brokers
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ADT - ADRIATIC METALS PLC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AZJ - AURIZON HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EPY - EARLYPAY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: FML - FOCUS MINERALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMD - GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: GMG - GOODMAN GROUP
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PFP - PROPEL FUNERAL PARTNERS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RRL - REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SOL - WASHINGTON H. SOUL PATTINSON AND CO. LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLC - LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TLS - TELSTRA GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WEB - WEB TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED