In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 12-09-25

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This story features EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: APE
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity assesses Eagers Automotive’s 1H25 result as strong, with underlying profit before tax beating its forecast despite pressure on margins, which is widespread in the industry.

Revenue of $6.5bn was ahead of the broker’s forecast of $5.8bn, aided by BYD’s contribution. Operating cash flow was very strong, leading to an improvement in leverage to 0.82x.

The broker reckons the result suggests the earnings profile is less dependent on cycles than previously thought due to strong positioning in new brands and powertrains.

FY25 EPS forecast upgraded by 2.3% and FY26 by 4.5%.

Target lifted to $28.00 from $17.20 for reasons, including an increase in the terminal rate. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

ABACUS STORAGE KING ((ASK)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes REIT stocks outperformed in August, up 6.2%, with the performance supported by the sector exceeding elevated expectations during the result season.

Macro tailwinds like rate cuts, cap rate compression and limited supply support rental/price growth and asset values. Balance sheets are healthy, enabling capital deployment and potential consolidation-driven upside.

Among key risks in the broker’s view are elevated rates vs past cycles, regulatory headwinds, and a wide gap between underlying and cash-backed earnings.

In the case of Abacus Storage King, the broker believes growth will get a boost from a larger development pipeline, ongoing add-on acquisitions, and management system efficiencies.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target unchanged at $1.65.

CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes REIT stocks outperformed in August, up 6.2%, with the performance supported by the sector exceeding elevated expectations during the result season.

Macro tailwinds like rate cuts, cap rate compression and limited supply support rental/price growth and asset values. Balance sheets are healthy, enabling capital deployment and potential consolidation-driven upside.

Among key risks in the broker’s view are elevated rates vs past cycles, regulatory headwinds, and a wide gap between underlying and cash-backed earnings.

The broker notes Charter Hall Retail REIT shares are up around 33% YTD, but well supported by a -10% discount to NTA and 6.1% dividend yield.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral. Target rises to $4.75 from $4.35.

INGENIA COMMUNITIES GROUP ((INA)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes REIT stocks outperformed in August, up 6.2%, with the performance supported by the sector exceeding elevated expectations during the result season.

Macro tailwinds like rate cuts, cap rate compression and limited supply support rental/price growth and asset values. Balance sheets are healthy, enabling capital deployment and potential consolidation-driven upside.

Among key risks in the broker’s view are elevated rates vs past cycles, regulatory headwinds, and a wide gap between underlying and cash-backed earnings.

The broker sees upside potential to Ingenia Communities’ guidance if market conditions remain strong and the lower rate environment continues to strengthen residential sentiment.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Underweight. Target unchanged at $7.10.

PEXA GROUP LIMITED ((PXA)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Pexa Group’s FY25 earnings (EBITDA) of $134m, rose by 17% year-on-year but but came in -4% below Jarden’s and consensus forecasts. International revenue was weaker and exchange margins lower than expected.

FY26 guidance of between $405-430m revenue and 32-35% margins implies to the broker respective -4% and -11% downgrades to consensus forecasts at midpoints. Capex guidance of -$60-65m was lower-than-expectated.

The broker cuts its FY26-FY28 EPS forecasts by -26% to -37% due to lower international and digital revenues, and higher UK costs, Terminal EPS are only reduced by -2% with UK market share assumptions intact at around 40%.

Jarden lowers its target price to $17.70 from $17.75 and upgrades Pexa Group to Buy from Overweight given the strong UK opportunity.

SMARTGROUP CORPORATION LIMITED ((SIQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Smartgroup Corp’s 1H25 result was largely in line with Canaccord Genuity’s forecast, and the highlight was the company announcing FY27 EBITDA margin target of mid-40%s.

The broker previously had 41% EBITDA margin estimate for FY27, but revised it to 42.9%, noting material upside potential if the company achieves the target.

In the short term, the broker sees headwinds from tougher comps due to prior-year PHEV FBT settlements, with some yield pressure likely to weigh further.

FY25-26 revenue forecasts cut by 3.2% and 2.4% respectively, and FY27 revenue raised by 0.2%, with offset from a lift in EBITDA margins. The net result is a cut in FY25-26 net profit forecasts, but a lift to FY27.

Target rises to $9.10 from $8.70. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

TOURISM HOLDINGS LIMITED ((THL)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Tourism Holdings Rentals delivered FY25 profit of NZ$28.7m, 5% above Wilsons’ forecasts and within guidance, with rental income up 10% and goods sales down -6%.

Growth was supported by fleet expansion in New Zealand and higher US revenue per rental vehicle, partly offset by a smaller fleet, explains the broker. Weaker RV retail sales and normalising margins weighed on Australian earnings.

Management reaffirmed its roadmap to NZ$100m profit over 3-4 years, underpinned by assumptions including 25% more rental days, fleet growth to 9,000 by FY28, and modest gross margin improvement.

The broker’s earnings (EBITDA) forecasts rise 9-10% across FY26-28, while profit lifts 4% in FY26 and 10% in FY28 on higher utilisation and revised interest assumptions. 

Wilsons upgrades its rating to Overweight from Market Weight after raising its target price to $2.94 from $2.12.

Downgrade

HMC CAPITAL LIMITED ((HMC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes REIT stocks outperformed in August, up 6.2%, with the performance supported by the sector exceeding elevated expectations during the result season.

Macro tailwinds like rate cuts, cap rate compression and limited supply support rental/price growth and asset values. Balance sheets are healthy, enabling capital deployment and potential consolidation-driven upside.

Among key risks in the broker’s view are elevated rates vs past cycles, regulatory headwinds, and a wide gap between underlying and cash-backed earnings.

In the case of HMC Capital, the broker believes earnings are dependent on the ability to raise unlisted capital where the track record is minimal. Forecasts and valuation lowered to reflect the range of possibilities.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight. Target trimmed to $4.00 from $5.20.

PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Moelis downgraded Pantoro Gold’s rating to Hold from Buy following recent share price gains. No change to $4.50 target price.

The broker notes the share price has appreciated 65% since July vs the 22% average gains in its gold coverage stocks.

The stock could continue to trade higher on pure momentum, but to drive a rating upgrade, the broker needs to have more conviction around peak production or the gold price to exceed $6,000/oz.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden regards Sandfire Resources’ FY25 result as unusually messy but broadly meeting its forecast at the underlying EBITDA and EBIT line, missing at the EBT line, but beating at the reporting net profit level.

The highlights were consistent cash generation and an improved balance sheet, with FY26 guidance viewed as robust.

The broker lifted FY26 EBITDA forecast by 2% but trimmed FY27 by -4% on higher costs, partly offset by greater precious metals credit.

Target cut to $11.00 from $11.20. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy.

LOTTERY CORPORATION LIMITED ((TLC)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden notes Lottery Corp’s share price has outperformed in the past month, rising 9%, with the FY25 result providing an additional boost.

The share price is up 18% year-to-date. As a result, rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral. Target unchangedat $5.65.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

ADH    ADAIRS LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $2.60 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((ADH)) as Buy (1) –

Adairs’ FY25 sales beat Canaccord Genuity’s forecast by 1%, with the beat driven by Adairs stores, Focus and Mocka. Gross profit margin was ahead by 38bps at 46.8% and net profit was 1% higher than expected.

The highlight was strong start to FY26 with group sales up 22.6% y/y and Adairs up 26.6%, though margin pressure was flagged. Focus turnaround was noted as key swing factor as the company expects sales growth to resume in 1H26, and Mocka is also gaining traction.

The broker cut FY26 net profit forecast by -5% and FY27 by -6.5% on model adjustments.

Target rises to $3.00 from $2.95. Buy maintained.

This report was published on September 1, 2025.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.60 Difference: $0.4
If ADH meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.69, suggesting upside of 3.4%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.38%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.5, implying annual growth of 47.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.5, implying annual growth of 18.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BWN    BHAGWAN MARINE LIMITED

Overnight Price: $0.52 

Petra Capital rates ((BWN)) as Buy (1) –

Bhagwan Marine’s FY25 result was slightly ahead of Petra Capital’s forecasts, with earnings (EBITDA) of $50.6m versus the broker’s $48m forecast. Profit of $12.5m fell short of the broker’s $13.3m forecast, impacted by higher depreciation and tax.

Revenue rose 5% to $283m, or 26% excluding lower-margin decommissioning work, while margins improved 282bps to 17.8%.

The broker notes operating cash flow (OCF) of $35.8m rose 23% year-on-year with conversion at 98%, though net debt increased to $17m on higher growth capex.

Despite no formal guidance, outlook commentary remains positive, notes Petra Capital, supported by tighter vessel supply.

The broker lifts its earnings (EBITDA) forecasts but cuts profit forecasts. Buy rating. Target 61 cents.

This report was published on September 2, 2025.

Target price is $0.61 Current Price is $0.52 Difference: $0.09
If BWN meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 4.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.06.

Forecast for FY27:

Petra Capital forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 5.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.81.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSC    CAPSTONE COPPER CORP.

Copper – Overnight Price: $10.81 

Moelis rates ((CSC)) as Buy (1) –

Moelis has updated its assumptions on Capstone Copper following reporting season and the processing issue at Mantoverde, which is expected to cut around -3kt of copper production. The valuation treatment of Santo Domingo is also revised.Group tax modeling changes increase the drag from taxation, reducing the broker’s sum-of-the-parts valuation.

Offsetting this, rolling forward the model and including next twelve months’ earnings lifts the implied EV/earnings contribution.Moelis considers Capstone Copper a unique opportunity for small-cap investors seeking copper exposure in a diversified, large-cap-style miner. Compared with peers, the broker sees lower risk given geographic spread and balance sheet strength.The broker maintains a Buy rating and a $12.50 target price.This report was published on September 3, 2025.Target price is 

Moelis has updated its assumptions on Capstone Copper following reporting season and the processing issue at Mantoverde, which is expected to cut around -3kt of copper production. The valuation treatment of Santo Domingo is also revised.

Group tax modeling changes increase the drag from taxation, reducing the broker’s sum-of-the-parts valuation. Offsetting this, rolling forward the model and including next twelve months’ earnings lifts the implied EV/earnings contribution.

Moelis considers Capstone Copper a unique opportunity for small-cap investors seeking copper exposure in a diversified, large-cap-style miner. Compared with peers, the broker sees lower risk given geographic spread and balance sheet strength.

The broker maintains a Buy rating and a $12.50 target price.

This report was published on September 3, 2025.

Target price is $12.50 Current Price is $10.81 Difference: $1.69
If CSC meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.90, suggesting upside of 10.1%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 20.16 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.0, implying annual growth of 43.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 43.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.2, implying annual growth of 167.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV    CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $11.28 

Wilsons rates ((CUV)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons is of the view competitive noise around Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals’ Scenesse’s position in erythropoietic protoporphyria (EPP) is more perception than reality.

The drug has held first-and-only status for over a decade, a remarkable feat in rare disease pharma, the broker highlights.

FY25 revenue was up 8% y/y but the timing of June/July sales meant a miss vs the broker’s forecast. Cash conversion was 100%, with net cash at $224m at year-end.

Modest changes to forecasts. The broker sees the outlook supported by a loyal prescriber/patient base, new EPP centres and broader utilisation (incl. adolescents).

Target rises to $32.84 from $30.00. Overweight retained.

This report was published on August 29, 2025.

Target price is $32.84 Current Price is $11.28 Difference: $21.56
If CUV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 191% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.53, suggesting upside of 64.3%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 82.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.62%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.8, implying annual growth of -3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Forecast for FY27:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 17.60 cents and EPS of 92.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 69.5, implying annual growth of -0.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAP    MICROBA LIFE SCIENCES LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.09 

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MAP)) as Buy (1) –

FY25 results for Microba Life Sciences were in line with Canaccord Genuity’s expectations.

Revenue grew 30% to $15.7m, driven by MetaXplore and MetaPanel uptake in Australia and the UK, with group margins steady at 47.5%, highlights the broker.

The company reported a -$14.9m loss, reflecting a lower R&D spend, notes the broker.

Management is seeking partners for its Therapeutics division. FY26 guidance is for Australian/EU diagnostics to break even in FY26 on doubled test volumes of around 24,000. 

Pro forma cash stands at circa $23.2m after the recent equity raise and expected R&D Tax Incentive receipts, explains Canaccord.

The broker retains a Buy rating and 19c target price.

This report was published on September 1, 2025.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.1
If MAP meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 4.95.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 5.52.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RUL    RPMGLOBAL HOLDINGS LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $4.64 

Taylor Collison rates ((RUL)) as Outperform (2) –

RPMGlobal’s FY25 result was eclipsed by a $5 per share non-binding offer from Caterpillar, which management intends to recommend or weigh against any superior bid.

With 25 confidentiality agreements signed and the company’s flagship product Asset Management Tool (AMT) long embedded in Caterpillar’s systems, Jarden sees limited due diligence risk.

The broker lists key positives in the result including 94% retention, Rio Tinto’s ((RIO)) planned rollout of Xecute, BHP Group’s ((BHP)) global AMT adoption, strong Americas contract growth, and a new Freeport framework.

Taylor Collison maintains an Outperform rating, and aligns its target to the $5.00 takeover proposal.

This report was published on September 2, 2025.

Target price is $3.48 Current Price is $4.64 Difference: minus $1.16 (current price is over target).
If RUL meets the Taylor Collison target it will return approximately minus 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 58.00.

Forecast for FY27:

Taylor Collison forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.19.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SDF    STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $6.19 

Jarden rates ((SDF)) as Overweight (2) –

Steadfast Group’s FY25 underlying profit of $346.2m was in line with guidance of $340-350m and Jarden’s forecasts. Revenue from consolidated entities was slightly weaker-than-expected, though tighter cost control lifted earnings (EBITA) above expectations.

Broking revenue and EBITA grew 7% despite weaker gross written premium trends, while agency earnings rose 10% with strong revenue margins partly offsetting softer growth in the second half.

The broker highlights the acquisition of a majority stake in US-based Novum Underwriting Partners, signaling an acceleration of Steadfast’s international expansion as domestic premium tailwinds moderate.

While organic growth is slowing, the group continues to diversify with acquisitions and synergies from scale, highlight the analysts.

Jarden raises its target price to $6.90 from $6.75 and retains a Buy rating.

This report was published on August 29, 2025.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.19 Difference: $0.71
If SDF meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.89, suggesting upside of 11.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 21.10 cents and EPS of 33.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.53.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.4, implying annual growth of 3.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7.

Forecast for FY27:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 22.90 cents and EPS of 36.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.15.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.9, implying annual growth of 8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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