Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 10-10-25

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This story features CATALYST METALS LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CYL
The company is included in ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday October 6 to Friday October 10, 2025
Total Upgrades: 6
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.39%; Hold 31.64%; Sell 8.96%

For the week ending Friday, October 10, 2025, FNArena tracked six upgrades and six downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

The size of percentage increases in average target prices outweighed reductions for the seventh week in a row led by rises for Meteoric Resources and Synlait Milk of 31% and 22%, respectively.

Bell Potter raised its target for Meteoric Resources to 25c from 14c and upgraded to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold.

These changes followed receipt of formal consent from Brazil’s municipal environmental council to commence operations at the company’s Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project specifically within the 3km buffer zone, after an earlier block to operations was overturned in August.

This decision cleared a key hurdle ahead of the Preliminary Licence decision, noted the broker, with pilot plant construction and mixed rare earth carbonate production expected by late November.

Impacting negatively on short-term earnings forecasts, Synlait Milk will sell its North Island assets to US-based Abbott Laboratories for around NZ$307m, with completion expected in April 2026.

Bell Potter’s earnings forecasts are under review following the sale and a2 Milk Co’s shift of English-label product volumes to Yashili New Zealand Dairy Co. The broker’s Hold rating was kept, and its target raised to 72c from 58c.

UBS views the sale as balance-sheet accretive and a key step toward stabilising earnings by FY27, though weaker ingredient margins and lower infant formula volumes will weigh on profit. This broker raised its target to NZ79c from NZ58c and maintained a Sell rating.

NRW Holdings, Ramelius Resources, and Minerals 260 also received increases in respective average targets by brokers of 12%, 11%, and 10%.

Following the acquisition of Australian engineering and building services group Fredon, NRW Holdings lifted its FY26 revenue guidance to over $4bn from $3.4bn and earnings (EBITA) to $255-265m from $218-228m.

UBS estimated a $7m uplift in the core business, supported by mining margins improving to 9%, and raised its earnings forecast to $263m. The broker’s target was raised to $5.15 from $4.50 (Buy).

Citi (Buy) also noted a strong FY26 start for NRW, with dry Queensland conditions and Fredon synergies driving upside. This broker viewed guidance as conservative and raised its target to $5.50 from $4.05.

The average target for Ramelius Resources benefited from Morgans raising its gold price projections by around 20% over the next three financial years, in line with consensus, supporting stronger earnings potential for both producers and developers.

Among producers, the broker’s large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap preferences are respectively Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, and Meeka Metals. Pre-production favourites are Minerals 260, Turaco Gold, and Tesoro Gold.

Morgans upgraded Ramelius to Buy from Accumulate and lifted its target to $5.00 from $4.00, citing strong cash generation from established operations and a high-grade asset base including Mount Magnet and Edna May, and the Rebecca gold project, all in WA.

Morgans also lifted its target for Minerals 260, reflecting the higher gold price assumptions. Open-pittable gold resources exceeding 2moz are increasingly rare, stressed Morgans, adding significant economic appeal. Accordingly, the Bullabulling Gold Project in Western Australia is seen as offering strong potential returns for investors.

Significant resource growth potential was also noted, along with clear merger and acquisition appeal. The broker’s target was increased to 50c from 38c. Speculative Buy retained.

Eagers Automotive is next after investors welcomed its first offshore acquisition (in Canada) and strategic partnership with Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation, which is investing -$70m for a 20% stake in the company’s’ used-car business, easyauto123. 

While offshore adventures by several ASX-listed companies have recently resulted in heartache, analysts highlighted structural industry advantages in Canada for Eagers, as well as aligned vendor interest to mitigate execution risks.

For broker views on the acquisition of CanadaOne Auto Group and the Mitsubishi partnership see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/08/canadian-purchase-lifts-eagers-into-global-top-5/

For another week, rises in average earnings forecasts were largely propelled by higher commodity pricing forecasts.

Only two of the ten positions on the table for positive change to earnings below are filled by stocks in the Industrial sector; Abacus Storage King and James Hardie Industries.

Due to a data glitch, the change for Abacus Storage King should be ignored as Citi maintained its forecasts for the REIT.

Citi’s July Self-Storage Website Tracker continues to show strong growth momentum through July 2025.

National Storage REIT delivered the standout performance with website traffic up 31% year-on-year, well above the peer average of 7.3%, while Abacus Storage King recorded an -18% decline over the same period.

Both REITs reported stable revenue per available metre (REVPAM) and occupancy growth during the FY25 reporting season.

While industry traffic has expanded strongly over the past 12 months up to July, performance has been mixed in 2025 to date, noted the broker. National Storage REIT achieved 7.1% growth year-on-year from January to July, whereas Abacus and peers declined by -11.3% and -2.3%, respectively.

James Hardie Industries enjoyed its first positive new week for some time.

Morgan Stanley assessed preliminary second quarter earnings (final earnings are due on November 19) as strong, with sales and earnings well above guidance. The share price rose around 8% upon the news.

The earnings improvement was due to more stable demand, assessed Morgans, along with less material destocking and an improved outlook. The recently acquired Azek performed well in the US, in the broker’s view, with mid-single digit growth in both net sales and sell-through for deck, rail and accessories versus the prior period.

Less positively, Ord Minnett noted distributors kept more inventory on board than anticipated, while UBS felt housing softness will continue, noting new construction and renovation activity remains weak.

The most material falls in average earnings forecasts belonged to DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, Synlait Milk (discussed above), and IGO Ltd.

DigiCo announced new contracts across Sydney, Brisbane, and Adelaide, lifting contracted Australian capacity to around 41MW by June 2026 from prior guidance of 27MW.

UBS noted customers span various segments from hyperscale, neocloud, enterprise, and government, with the SYD1 data centre now expected to grow to an additional 15MW from 9MW growth planned earlier.

The group billed IT capacity target was also raised by management to 85MW by July 2026 (US 44MW, Australia 41MW), which infers an annualised earnings run rate of at least $180m by FY27.

While the analyst was positive on the deals, concerns were raised around upgraded earnings being almost in line with current forecasts. In the broker’s view, this suggested existing MW has been re-contracted at a lower rate and newly contracted earnings/MW is also lower.

While positive on the stock, Ord Minnett highlighted high leverage, though this could be mitigated if management sells partial stakes in SYD1 or US assets to reduce gearing.

Morgans observed the FY26 distribution will be cut to 12c, down from the prior 20c forecast by the broker, but still within the 90-100% of funds from operations payout range. Payouts are still positioned to grow over time, the broker notes.

Regarding IGO Ltd, here Morgan Stanley last week noted a shift toward greater inflation tolerance signals an environment of lower rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all supportive for commodities and miners.

 ASX-listed miners remain undervalued versus industrials, in this broker’s opinion. Strong battery electric vehicle and energy storage demand in China should continue to support lithium, with Mineral Resources the preferred exposure.

The fall in average FY26 earnings for IGO was exaggerated by the small forecast number involved. In fact, the Underweight-rated broker’s target price was raised to $4.60 from $3.90.

As was the case for IGO Ltd, near-term forecasts for Chalice Mining were negatively impacted while longer-term estimates rose as UBS raised its short to medium-term gold price forecasts by 9-12% across FY26-28 to US$3,825, US$3,650, and US$3,350/oz, respectively. The broker’s long-term estimate was kept at US$2,800/oz.

These forecast price changes resulted in EPS upgrades across the broker’s coverage of gold stocks of between 18-29% in FY26 and FY27. UBS’ target prices jumped 6-25% higher. 

The analysts see more opportunity in mid-cap growth names such as Genesis Minerals, Perseus Mining, and Vault Minerals.

Exploration and development company Chalice Mining is best known for its nickel, copper, cobalt, and platinum group elements (PGE) discoveries.

Gold exposure arises from the company’s flagship Julimar Nickel-Copper-Platinum Group Element Project in Western Australia. Julimar hosts the Gonneville deposit, one of the largest nickel-copper-PGE sulphide discoveries in recent decades, containing significant nickel copper, cobalt, platinum, palladium, and gold resources.

Average earnings forecasts for agriculture-related stocks Elders and Select Harvests fell by -14% and -13%, respectively.

Elders announced disappointing FY25 guidance, coming in below consensus forecasts at the midpoint by -9.3%.

Elders’ fourth quarter outlook appears stronger, with the approved Delta Ag acquisition expected to deliver meaningful synergies and expand the company’s earnings base as explained at

https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/13/elders-to-fly-with-delta/

Select Harvests cut its FY25 guidance, now expecting a 24,700mt crop and almond pricing of between $10.14-10.20/kg.

Ord Minnett described the downgrade as modest, with focus shifting to an expected FY26 recovery to around 28,250mt. The broker lowered its FY25-26 earnings forecasts by -10%, retained a Buy rating, and reduced its target to $4.95 from $5.65.

Returning to the Resources sector, earnings forecasts for Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, and Whitehaven Coal received a boost from Morgan Stanley’s new commodity price forecasts.

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlighted the broker last week. It’s felt miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Iron ore has historically benefited from periods of US dollar weakness, observe the analysts. While new supply remains a potential headwind, it’s felt consensus forecasts are reasonable.

Regarding lithium, the broker expects battery electric vehicle (BEV) and energy storage system (ESS) sales in China to continue exceeding expectations.

Metallurgical and thermal coal prices remain low but steady, note the analysts. Both are seen as well positioned to benefit from China’s “anti-involution” policies aimed at improving industrial efficiency.

Rising steel demand in India, supported by new blast furnace capacity is expected to underpin the seaborne met coal market, while thermal coal could see upside from a La Nina-driven cold winter across North-East Asia.

The broker’s target for Overweight-rated Mineral Resources (the analysts’ preferred iron ore and lithium exposure) was raised to $49.00 from $41.50.

Both Pilbara Minerals and Whitehaven Coal are rated Overweight by Morgan Stanley, with Pilbara’s target raised to $2.85 from $2.30 while Whitehaven’s eased to $8.00 from $8.30.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.39% of the total, versus 31.64% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.96%.

Upgrade

CATALYST METALS LIMITED ((CYL)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Morgans raises its gold price assumptions by around 20% over the next three financial years, in line with consensus, supporting stronger earnings potential for both producers and developers. Long-term gold price assumption of US$2,500/oz is maintained.

Macro tailwinds continue to support the gains in spot gold prices, explains Morgans, with prospective rate cuts, shifting US policy, ongoing de-dollarisation, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty underpinning gold’s resilience.

Among producers, the broker’s large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap preferences are Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, and Meeka Metals, respectively. Pre-production favourites are Minerals 260, Turaco Gold, and Tesoro Gold.

With no hedging and a debt-free balance sheet, Catalyst Metals offers enduring value through its pipeline of low-cost organic growth and significant upside potential across the broader Plutonic Gold Belt, suggests Morgans.

Target rises to $11.00 from $9.26. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Morgans upgrades Imdex to Accumulate from Hold with a higher target of $3.80 from $3.45 ahead of the company’s 1Q26 sales update at the AGM next week, which the analyst believes will come in above expectations.

Junior raisings have increased to record levels in September of US$1.5bn, up 260% on the prior year, with Morgans pointing to a pick-up in other commodities, including sustained gains in the gold price..

Non-precious metals raisings grew 345% on last year versus precious metals up 44% over the same period, marking the fourth consecutive month of raisings over US$1bn. Trailing 12-month raisings are up 72% to US$11.1bn on the prior period.

The analyst raises Imdex’s revenue growth forecast to 16% for FY26 from 14%, and to 7% from 5% in FY27, with an associated rise in NPATA estimates by 3% in FY26 and 7%-9% in FY27-28, respectively.

METEORIC RESOURCES NL ((MEI)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Bell Potter raises its target for Meteoric Resources to 25c from 14c and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Speculative Hold.

Brazil’s Council of Management for the Environmental Protection Area of Pedra Branca (CONGEAPA) has provided consent to commence operations of its the Caldeira ionic clay rare earth project within the 3km environmental buffer zone.

This follows a previously blocked vote in August 2025, notes the broker, and clears a key hurdle ahead of the Preliminary Licence (LP) decision from the Minas Gerais Environmental Protection Agency.

Management expects pilot plant construction and production of mixed rare earth carbonate to begin by late November or early December.

The analysts view this outcome as a major de-risking event, signaling progress toward the pilot plant completion, and definitive feasibility study delivery.

PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding uranium, Morgan Stanley turns more constructive. The target for Paladin Energy is increased to $9.50 from $7.30 and the rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight. Industry View: Attractive.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Morgans raises its gold price assumptions by around 20% over the next three financial years, in line with consensus, supporting stronger earnings potential for both producers and developers. Long-term gold price assumption of US$2,500/oz is maintained.

Macro tailwinds continue to support the gains in spot gold prices, explains Morgans, with prospective rate cuts, shifting US policy, ongoing de-dollarisation, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty underpinning gold’s resilience.

Among producers, the broker’s large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap preferences are Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, and Meeka Metals, respectively. Pre-production favourites are Minerals 260, Turaco Gold, and Tesoro Gold.

Morgans raises its target for Ramelius Resoures to $5.00 from $4.00 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate. It’s noted the company’s high-grade asset base is complemented by established operations, which are generating strong cash flow.

TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED ((TCL)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Morgans upgrades Transurban Group to Hold from Trim and lifts the target to $13.39 from $12.88. This follows the September quarter traffic data and USD bond issue at 4.92%pa, replacing Feb 2026 maturing bonds at 4.1% coupon.

Average daily traffic for September was up 2.4%, with the ramp-up of WestConnex up 8.2%, CityLink up 3.2%, and ongoing Brisbane growth of 2.6%. North America rose 6.8%, while Sydney roads were impacted by rain in 1Q25, lowering traffic growth by around -1%.

Morgans anticipates mid-single digit DPS growth from FY25-FY28, which aligns with management’s targets. The troublesome West Gate Tunnel Project is due to be completed by the end-2025, with both cost and timing overruns already noted at the FY25 result.

Downgrade

COG FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED ((COG)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/0

COG Financial Services has agreed to purchase for -$23.9m an incremental 12.1% stake in the novated leasing and salary packaging provider FleetNetwork, lifting ownership to 92.4%.

The purchase will be funded via a $20m equity raising at $2.00 per share and existing debt facilities.

Ord Minnett says the investment aligns with management’s strategy to expand its exposure to salary packaging and novated leasing, with the deal expected to be around 6% earnings per share accretive in FY26.

The purchase price implies a trailing 6.1x earnings (EBITDA) multiple, viewed by the analyst as reasonable versus peers.

Ord Minnett lifts its target to $2.40 from $2.04. Given the recent share price rally, the broker’s rating is downgraded rating to Hold from Accumulate.

CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. ((CSC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Morgans downgrades Capstone Copper to Accumulate from Buy with a lift in the target to $16 from $12.10.

The stock remains one of the preferred leveraged plays to a higher copper price, with the broker raising its copper price forecasts by 3% for 2025 and 5% each for 2026-27. This is on the back of supply challenges and an improved demand backdrop.

Capstone is expected to lift production in 2025 by 28% despite issues at both Mantoverde and Pinto Valley in 3Q, as previously announced. Management has guided to a decline in unit costs of -15% for 2025.

A partial sell down of Santo Domingo is anticipated before the end of 2026.

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

A visit to Iluka Resources’ Eneabba rare earths refinery and meeting with the team reinforced Ord Minnett’s confidence in the technical expertise and project execution.

However, the broker notes the share price rally is driven by “REO mania,” with NdPr prices implied above US$110/kg unlikely to sustain. 

A surprise was the timeline with the Eneabba plant, due to start production mid-2027, which is expected to take 3 months to produce NdPr and 9 months for heavy rare earth oxides. 

On the positive side, the broker highlights the plant’s versatile design allows processing of various monazite/xenotime feedstocks and potential third-party refining opportunities.

Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold on share price rally. Target rises to $6.00 from $5.50.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/3/3

Greater tolerance for inflation signals the onset of an environment characterised by lower interest rates, higher inflation, and a softer US dollar, all favourable for commodities and the mining sector, highlights Morgan Stanley.

In this context, the broker reiterates its Attractive industry view, upgraded last quarter, as miners continue to trade at appealing valuations relative to industrials.

Regarding rare earths, Morgan Stanley notes pricing is increasingly bifurcated, a trend reinforced by growing government support for strategic mineral projects.

While this backdrop remains constructive, Morgan Stanley sees value in taking some profits on Lynas Rare Earths as the share price approaches $20.

The broker raises its target to $19.45 from $14.75 but downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight, despite noting Lynas trades on multiples well below US-based MP Materials. Industry View: Attractive.

PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Morgans raises its gold price assumptions by around 20% over the next three financial years, in line with consensus, supporting stronger earnings potential for both producers and developers. Long-term gold price assumption of US$2,500/oz is maintained.

Macro tailwinds continue to support the gains in spot gold prices, explains Morgans, with prospective rate cuts, shifting US policy, ongoing de-dollarisation, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty underpinning gold’s resilience.

Among producers, the broker’s large-cap, mid-cap and small-cap preferences are Northern Star Resources, Ramelius Resources, and Meeka Metals, respectively. Pre-production favourites are Minerals 260, Turaco Gold, and Tesoro Gold.

Given Pantoro Gold’s Norseman gold project is now fully consolidated and there is no hedging or debt, Morgans anticipates strong free cash flow while management unlocks access to higher-grade mining areas.

Target rises to $5.96 from $5.22. After a strong share price performance, the broker downgrades to Trim from Hold.

VEEM LIMITED ((VEE)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Veem’s nine-year supply deal with Northrop Grumman marks a major step, Morgans suggests, following Level 1 supplier approval with Huntington Ingalls Industries–Newport News Shipbuilding.

These partnerships expand VEEM’s role in the US submarine program, explains the broker.

The company is raising $14m at $1.30 a share, cutting pro forma net debt to around $0.6m from $13.7m at end-FY25.

Management expects 1H26 earnings to be slightly below 1H25, with stronger 2H26 growth as new defence orders ramp up.

Morgans cuts its FY26 earnings forecast by -13% and lifts FY27 and FY28 by 2% each. The target price is raised to $1.66 from $1.30. The rating is downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation.

Total Recommendations 3dpie	Recommendation Changes 3dpie2
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