Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 17-10-25

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This story features AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday October 13 to Friday October 17, 2025
Total Upgrades: 13
Total Downgrades: 11
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.66%; Hold 31.55%; Sell 8.79%

For the week ending Friday, October 17, 2025, FNArena tracked thirteen upgrades and eleven downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Average target price increases outpaced cuts, a trend that has been in place since early July, a period of 15 consecutive weeks.

On a number of occasions, these rises have been due to brokers upgrading commodity price forecasts, but a surprising number of target price increases have related to stocks within the Industrial sector due to stronger earnings forecasts or other triggering events.

Returning to last week, here average targets in the table below show seven of the ten rises relate to ASX Resources stocks, supported by higher commodity price forecasts by UBS or Ord Minnett (or both).

Despite this dominance, Industrial exposures SRG Global and Catapult Sports featured most prominently with increases in average targets of 48% and 26%, respectively, due to M&A activity.

The four daily covered brokers in the FNArena database which research SRG Global all ventured opinions on the acquisition of Total Tams Pty Ltd for -$85m, an end-to-end diversified marine infrastructure services partner with a 25-year history.

The deal will be funded via $45m in debt, $28m in SRG Global shares (issued at $1.99 and subject to a two-year escrow), and $12m in cash.

Morgans considered the transaction strategically aligned and highly accretive, estimating FY26 earnings of $35m from Total Tams, while Shaw and Partners forecasts the acquisition will add roughly 25% to EPS for SRG and free access to larger contracts.

SRG deserves a premium valuation, suggested Ord Minnett, citing its strong strategic positioning, solid earnings growth outlook, and capacity for further value-accretive acquisitions.

Catapult Sports announced the acquisition of proprietary soccer analytics software company Impect for up to -US$91m, including upfront cash of -US$46m and the remainder deferred and contingent over four years.

A fully underwritten institutional placement of US$84m, with a share purchase plan aiming to raise US$13m, will assist with funding.

Impect, while small, is expanding rapidly, noted Morgan Stanley, with average contract value growing at a 68% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from July 2023 to July 2025.

UBS updated its forecasts, bringing forward the expected timing of Catapult’s first profit to FY27, while Bell Potter observed Catapult’s simultaneous trading update showed preliminary first-half FY26 results broadly in line with expectations. FY26 guidance was also reaffirmed.

Specialist alternative investment manager Regal Partners’ average target also rose by around 13% last week, after issuing a September quarter funds under management (FUM) and performance fee update.

Regal manages about $17.70bn in funds across hedge funds, private markets, real and natural assets (such as water rights), along with credit and royalties.

Boutique managers in the stable include Regal Funds Management, PM Capital, Merricks Capital, Taurus Funds Management, Attunga Capital, Kilter Rural, Argyle Group, Ark Capital Partners, and VGI Partners.

FUM rose by 13% to $20bn, driven by outperformance across small-caps and resource strategies.

Morgans called the update “exceptionally strong,” with hedge fund strategies up 17% and performance fees well above the broker’s expectation. Bell Potter noted it was the strongest update since the VGI Partners merger (completed in June 2022), highlighting 85% of FUM is near fee-earning levels.

Ord Minnett described a “standout” performance, materially outperforming expectations across all key metrics including FUM, net inflows and performance fee accruals. Performance fees for the second half of FY25 are now expected to reach $70m, well above the consensus estimate for between $22-52m.

Staying with the Industrial sector and moving to average earnings forecasts, the tables below show brokers delivered an around 13% boost (on small forecast numbers) for Telix Pharmaceuticals but sliced around -11% from Treasury Wine Estates (post yet another profit warning).

Citi’s forecasts for Telix Pharmaceuticals’ prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) revenue were rendered conservative after the company’s strong third quarter and upgraded FY25 sales guidance.

The company’s radiopharmaceutical products are Illuccix, used for imaging prostate cancer via PSMA PET scans, and Gozellix, which targets kidney cancer.

Management reported sales of US$206m, with PSMA revenue 2% above Citi’s estimate. Revenue grew 1% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year, with 3% dose volume growth, suggesting to UBS ongoing Illuccix uptake.

Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was lifted to US$800-820m from US$770-800m, reflecting inclusion of Gozellix sales.

According to Ord Minnett, the granting of full TPT for Gozellix will support revenue growth in the PSMA PET business in the December quarter.

Following Treasury Wine Estate’s first quarter trading update, the stock traded down just over -15%.

Overall, Chinese demand is weakening, and the Californian distributor transition has evolved into a bigger-than-expected inventory headache.

Management withdrew earnings guidance for the current fiscal year and the next, as well as putting a $200m share buyback on hold.

Both Morgans and UBS downgraded their ratings to Hold (or equivalent) from Buy. For further broker views see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/10/15/enthusiasm-for-treasury-wine-runs-dry/

Higher commodity price forecasts by Ord Minnett and UBS resulted in many stock beneficiaries with materially higher average earnings forecasts or targets, or both, as can be seen in the tables below.

Higher copper price forecasts benefited averages for Aeris Resources, AIC Mines, and Sandfire Resources, while gold price estimates lifted averages for Vault Minerals, Pantoro Gold, Genesis Minerals, Evolution Mining, and Ramelius Resources (among others).

It should be noted Evolution Mining, Genesis Minerals, and AIC Mines also released September quarter operational results. In all cases, management maintained FY26 production guidance.

Ord Minnett marked its forecasts to market for the September quarter, noting higher gold prices, modest gains across base metals, and mixed movements elsewhere.

The broker lifted its 2026 gold price estimate by 5%, resulting in higher target prices for key gold producers.

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz; an increase of US$450/oz.

This broker kept its Overweight stance on the ASX gold mining sector, noting a compelling case for investors to increase gold allocation amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, target prices for gold stocks under coverage by UBS rose by 20-35%.

Average broker earnings forecasts fell materially for miners 29Metals and Stanmore Resources.

Macquarie described 29Metals’ September quarter as disappointing, citing in-line copper production but sharply weaker zinc, gold, and silver output after another seismic event at Golden Grove.

Management has reduced 2025 zinc, gold, and silver guidance by -42%, -22% and -9%, respectively for the remainder of 2025.

Ord Minnett now expects -$60m less free cash flow and trimmed its earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by -20% and -30%, respectively.

Regarding Stanmore Resources, here Ord Minnett noted metallurgical coal pricing remains weak, though futures point to a potential recovery.

The company produces almost exclusively premium metallurgical coal, primarily hard coking coal and PCI coal, across its three operational hubs in Queensland’s Bowen Basin.

September quarter output from Stanmore Resources is expected to rise 13% quarter-on-quarter due to improved conditions at South Walker Creek in the Bowen Basin, with higher sales volumes forecast to lift cash by about US$13m from June 30.

Regarding the ‘hot’ topic of the week, Morgan Stanley observed China is expanding export controls to cover most medium and heavy rare earth elements, as well as selected production and processing equipment.

Despite a neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) focus by Lynas Rare Earths, it’s felt Lynas Rare Earths may benefit as it is well placed to build a US magnet manufacturing presence via its memorandum of understanding with Noveon Magnetics.

Last week, Macquarie also raised its long-term NdPr price forecast to US$110/kg (real) from US$95/kg, suggesting the price floor set between US-based MP Materials and the US Department of Defence will act as a future benchmark.

Ahead of the company’s September quarterly report, Ord Minnett expects Lynas Rare Earths to report production of 2,100t NdPr.

This broker will be looking for commentary on rare earth oxide (REO) demand and pricing trends, plus updates on the company’s -$750m capital deployment plans.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.66% of the total, versus 31.55% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.79%.

Upgrade

AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0

Ord Minnett highlights Aussie Broadband’s reaffirmed FY26 EBITDA forecast and capex guidance in a positive AGM update.

Subscriber growth re-accelerated in October after a temporary slowdown ahead of the NBN Accelerate program. Enterprise and government momentum remains strong, with major contract wins supporting double-digit profit growth through FY27.

The broker expects the wholesale migration of More Telecom and Tangerine Telecom in 2H26 to further boost FY27 earnings visibility.

Residential subscriber additions of over 3.2k early October imply over 25k December quarter run-rate. This poses an upside risk to the broker’s FY26 subscriber forecast.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target rises to $6.29 from $5.72.

ADORE BEAUTY GROUP LIMITED ((ABY)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Adore Beauty’s store rollout is progressing well, notes Bell Potter based on its channel checks, with five new Adore banners and one iKOU banner opened in 1H26. This brings the total to 13 of the 15 stores targeted for 2025.

The broker expects 10 stores to contribute fully to the first quarter, with the remaining two to open ahead of the key Christmas trading period.

Web traffic rose 8% quarter-on-quarter, while the mobile app continues to drive strong customer engagement, supported by around 440,000 Adore Rewards members, the analysts note.

Bell Potter makes no forecast changes, maintaining FY26 revenue forecast at $225.4m and earnings (EBITDA) at $12.1m.

The broker keeps its $1.25 target and upgrades to Buy from Hold after -17% share price retreat since September 17.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/3/2

Morgans upgrades Bank of Queensland to Hold from Trim and lifts its target price to $6.87 from $6.20 post 2H25 cash earnings which came in at the upper end of the bank’s guidance range.

The broker attributes this to revenue growth. The 20c 2H25 dividend was a beat.

A rise in NIM by 12bps boosted revenue growth of 9% versus 1H25, with the slowdown in home lending balances expected to ease in FY26.

FY25 costs came in flat as anticipated, including a notable decline in investment spending, with costs expected by management to advance at less than CPI in FY26. Credit quality also remains good.

Morgans downgrades EPS in FY27 by -7% but upgrades by 1% for FY28, with the dividend payout ratio retained at 65%.

COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED ((CPU)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/1

UBS lowers its target for Computershare to $39.00 from $41.20 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell. The stock’s -13% underperformance since August is thought to have priced in downside risk from potential US rate cuts under a Trump administration.

The broker sees improved risk/reward supported by resilient margin income (MI) balances and higher transactional revenue.

FY26 is viewed as a transitional year, with elevated FY25 transactional income normalising and merger opportunities still 6-12 months away.

UBS trims FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by -1.3% and -2.6%, respectively.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Imdex’s 1Q performance impressed Citi, with the broker highlighting 10% year-on-year revenue growth and a more positive industry tone suggesting exploration activity may be turning higher.

The broker expects margin improvement will continue through FY26, supported by a favourable business mix and rising activity across most regions.

Citi observes improving sentiment, underpinned by higher junior raisings, supportive commodity prices, and ongoing industry consolidation, indicating a potential upcycle.

The broker’s earnings margin forecast is raised to 30.5% for 1H26 from 28.5% in 2H25. Citi raises its target price to $4.20 from $3.70 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

See also IMD downgrade.

JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED ((JIN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Jumbo Interactive has made its first international business-to-consumer (B2C) move, acquiring UK-based Dream Car Giveaways for -$109.9m.

The transaction will accelerate Jumbo’s strategic shift from slower B2B operations toward higher-margin consumer markets, notes Morgans.

Dream Car Giveaways provides immediate scale and profitability in the fast-growing UK prize draw market, explains the analyst. It’s expected to contribute $14.3-14.9m in FY26 earnings (EBITDA), equal to 20-25% growth.

Following the acquisition, Morgans lifts FY26 and FY27 earnings forecasts by 6% and 11%, respectively. Potential is seen for further UK and US expansion and stronger cash flow generation.

Morgans raises its target price to $15.90 from $12.90 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate.

NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED ((NST)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Northern Star Resources rises to $28.20 from $21.10, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/1

Following a deeper analysis of Netwealth Group’s 1Q26 net flow which was 2% above its forecast, Citi has upgraded FY26 net flow estimate to $16bn from $15.8bn.

The broker assumes 2H flow will be same as 1H, with 1H flow expected to slow from the very strong start in 1Q.  FY26 revenue margin was also lifted to account for higher proportion of cash balance but FY27-28 margin trimmed on admin-fee tiering.

FY26-27 EBITDA increased by 2% while FY28 trimmed by -1% on higher operating expenses.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral. Target cut to $35.00 from $35.50 on lower multiple.

PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/4/0

Morgans upgrades Pro Medicus to Hold from Trim with a lift in the target price to $290 from $285.

Post FY25 result failed to establish any new updates for the company to justify an upgrade in the stock then. Heightened volatility in growth-related companies with high valuations has seen momentum ebb for the likes of Pro Medicus.

Given the stock’s pullback, the analyst believes there is a more favourable risk-reward profile for one of the highest quality companies on the ASX.

Positively, Pro Medicus announced an Authority to Operate from the US Department of Veterans Affairs for its Visage 7 CloudPACS platform, which will permit the company to transition its current on-premise implementation to the cloud.

The $10m enterprise contract with the University of Heidelberg is the first ex-US contract since 2020. The analyst highlights Europe remains a large market with significant opportunities.

QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Morgan Stanley transferred coverage of Qube Holdings to Samantha Edie.

The broker forecasts FY26 adjusted-EPS growth of 12% supported by solid tailwinds across containers, autos, agri, and energy, which is expected to more than offset short-term softness in Ports & Bulk.

Patrick’s earnings are seen up 4% in FY26 (after flat FY25) on a conservative assumption. The broker highlights operational momentum remains positive with major port container volumes up 5% FY26 to-date and vehicle imports up 5% y/y in 1Q26.

The company’s long-term incentives focus on adjusted-EPS and and relative total shareholder return, which could help close the gap between fundamentals and valuation, in the broker’s view.

Rating upgraded to Overweight from Equal-weight following share price weakness since the FY25 result. Target rises to $4.50 from $4.40.

Industry View: In-line.

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/3

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $7.25 from $5.40, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Sell.

SANTOS LIMITED ((STO)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Santos announced 3Q2025 production at 21.3mmboe, around -4% down on the prior quarter and below consensus by -3% and Morgans forecast.

Sales of US$1,129m fell -12% on the prior quarter and missed consensus/Morgans by -5% and -7%, respectively.

The miss was attributed to maintenance in WA and Cooper flood recovery. On a positive note, Barossa delivered first gas and the initial LNG cargo is still targeted for 4Q2025.

Production guidance for 2025 also declined to 89-91mmboe from around 92mmboe, with higher second half capex in WA due to maintenance.

Morgans highlights sentiment has been hit by the failure of the Adnoc deal, and the share price is viewed as oversold. The stock is upgraded to Accumulate from Trim with a lower target of $6.80 from $7.20.

VAULT MINERALS LIMITED ((VAU)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Vault Minerals rises to 90c from 72c, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

Downgrade

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/0

AMP’s September quarter update shows strong momentum, assesses Citi. Net inflows into the North platform increased 60% year-on-year and were only slightly below the typically strong second quarter.

Adviser engagement is increasing and a potential reduction in competition from a major rival could further support growth, highlights the broker, although wealth and superannuation & investments flows turned negative.

Citi points to improved retention efforts and a growing likelihood of a FY25 capital return.

The broker raises its FY25, FY26, and FY27 earnings forecasts by 1%, 2%, and 2%, respectively. The target is raised to $2.10 from $2.00 and the rating is downgraded to Neutral from Buy after a strong recent share price performance.

AROA BIOSURGERY LIMITED ((ARX)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Morgans points to a “solid” 2Q26 cash flow report for Aroa Biosurgery, which equates to a fourth consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flow. FY26 guidance was reiterated, a further positive, in the analyst’s view.

The stock is downgraded to Accumulate from Speculative Buy with a lift in target to 80c from 77c. There are no changes to the analyst’s earnings forecasts.

The biotech is due to report 1H26 results on November 25, with a randomised control trial for Symphony anticipated to conclude in November for peer review.

BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

In a trading update, Baby Bunting reaffirmed FY26 net profit guidance of $17-20m but expects earnings to be heavily 2H-weighted. Ord Minnett notes this is mainly due to significant store network restructuring and related costs.

Comparable store sales rose 2.2% FY26 year-to-date (to 12 Oct ) in line with the 1.5-3.0% growth expected in 1H26. The company will invest $7m in new/annualising stores and $4m in refurbishments and relocations, with earnings split 27%/73% between 1H and 2H.

Given execution risk, the broker lowered FY26-27 earnings forecasts by -7.4% and -4.8%, respectively.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target trimmed to $2.95 from $3.00.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Bell Potter downgrades its rating on GrainCorp to Hold from Buy due to the recent share price appreciation, which has approached the broker’s target price of $9.10, which remains unchanged.

The broker had upgraded the rating in July on expectations of a positive September 2025 ABARE crop report and improved oilseed margins.

The current 2025-26 indicators for east coast crop size, canola crush margins, and grain trading margins are considered in line with Bell Potter’s range of outcomes for FY26 earnings estimates.

No change to the analyst’s earnings forecasts.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Imdex’s first quarter performance impressed Bell Potter, with revenue rising 10% year-on-year to $123.2m and a favourable shift in mix as sensors, services, and software rose to 68% of total sales.

The broker maintains a $3.90 target but downgrades to Hold from Buy on valuation.

The analysts highlight a 17% quarter-on-quarter lift in IMDEX Mining Technology revenue, driven by strong product uptake across the Asia-Pacific region, particularly Western Australia.

Bell Potter interprets management’s outlook as the most optimistic in recent updates, with multiple industry indicators now “green” and tools on hire increasing since the fourth quarter.

Activity is improving in the Americas, note the analysts, with the US benefiting from the FAST-41 program and record copper-driven demand in South America.

Bell Potter makes no material changes to its forecasts.

See also IMD upgrade.

PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED ((PDN)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 6/0/1

Paladin Energy delivered a solid 1Q26 operational result with record U3O8 production of 1.07mlb, meeting guidance and the consensus, Ord Minnett notes.

Unit cost was low at US$41.6/lb as mining volumes rose 63% q/q. However, sales volume of 533klb was a big miss to the consensus of 908klb.

Target price is trimmed to $7.50 from $7.60 due to lower FY26-27 uranium price assumptions. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold.

The broker believes the valuation looks stretched at 14x EV/EBITDA and less than 5% FCF yield, below acceptable return levels for uranium risk.

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Downgrade to Trim from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Morgans raises its target for Rio Tinto to $117 from $110 and downgrades to Trim from Hold as the valuation starts to stretch, in the analyst’s view.

Rio’s 3Q25 result showed solid operational delivery, assesses the broker, though Pilbara shipments remain below the low end of guidance, leaving little room for error in Q4.

Morgans highlights copper as the standout, with Oyu Tolgoi’s underground ramp-up driving momentum.

Bauxite (aluminium ore) guidance was lifted to 59-61mt on sustained Weipa strength, explains the broker.

Morgans’ FY25-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts rise 8-15% following higher copper realisations and iron ore mark-to-market upgrades.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 1/3/2

UBS downgrades Sandfire Resources to Sell from Neutral and lifts the target price to $14.50 from $13.10. The higher target reflects current high valuation ascribed to the stock, which equates to multiples of larger, higher quality peers such as Freeport McMoRan.

The broker also lifts its copper price estimates by 6% to US$5.20/lb in 2026 and by 13% to US$5.95/lb in 2027, with a 16% rise in 2028 to US$5.80/lb due to supply side disruption.

There is a “scarcity premium” in ASX copper stocks like Sandfire, with copper representing around 70% of the miner’s FY26 forecast revenue and circa 21% of Evolution Mining ((EVN)).

The analyst raises Sandfire’s earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by 10% for 2026 and 21% for 2027.

SRG GLOBAL LIMITED ((SRG)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Morgans raises its target for SRG Global to $3.00 from $2.10 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy.

The broker believes the company’s acquisition of marine services group Total Ams Pty Ltd (TAMS) is strategically aligned, highly earnings accretive, and enhances diversification.

TAMS was acquired for -$85m upfront (plus earn-outs to -$95m), implying to the analyst only 2.7x earnings (EBITDA), and is expected to deliver $35m of earnings in FY26.

The deal lifts the broker’s FY26 and FY27 forecasts by 25% and 16%, respectively. It’s felt leverage remains conservative at 0.3x.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by UBS and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/5/1

Treasury Wine Estates’ decision to remove FY26 guidance with the 1Q26 trading update has prompted UBS to downgrade the stock to Neutral from Buy. Target price cut to $6.50 from $10.

Both FY26 and FY27 guidance have been removed, and the $200m share buyback has been paused, with $30.5m completed.

Revised growth from Treasury stands at 4% for FY26 and 6% for FY27; Penfolds low to mid double-digit growth of 9%/10% for FY26/FY27, respectively, and only slight growth for Americas.

China demand is weaker, resulting from new government guidelines on spending for employees. The US alcohol market is experiencing considerably softer demand, and the California distribution changeover is having a more marked impact.

UBS downgrades its EPS forecasts by -22% for FY26 and -29% for FY27.

Morgans downgraded Treasury Wine Estates to Hold from Buy following a disappointing 1Q26 trading update and removal of guidance. The target price has been lowered to $6.35 from $10.10.

Changes in the Chinese government’s policy on alcohol consumption have impacted Penfolds depletions, which reflect the underlying consumption trends, while shipments met expectations. FY26 Penfolds depletion targets are unlikely to be achieved.

The Americas luxury portfolio is viewed as performing well outside of California, even with the change in distributor, but depletions were impacted by the change.

The analyst has lowered Treasury’s EPS (EBIT) forecasts by -13.7% for FY26 and -16.8% for FY27, with 1H26 flagged to be particularly weak.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=210,141,161,102,245,249,173,134&h0=131,144,178,109,170,145,29,175&s0=11,26,48,51,35,36,4,34″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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