The Monday Report – 29 June 2026

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This story features LENDLEASE GROUP, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LLC
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

US technology shares were dragged lower by a sell-off in runaway memory and chip stocks on Friday.

Year-to-date underperforming Microsoft shares attracted some buying.

The Australian market closed higher on Friday but finished the week slightly lower.

ASX200 futures are pointing to a cautiously positive start on Monday.

Axios reported, ahead of the Asian trading session, that "U.S. AND IRAN AGREE TO HALT STRIKES, SET TO HOLD TALKS LATER THIS WEEK".

Good Morning,

The ASX200 finished down -64 points, or -0.73%, last week at 8764.2, with earnings downgrades, weaker commodity prices and offshore markets weighing on the index.

Under the surface, investors were rotating into Consumer Discretionary, up 3.61%, Consumer Staples, up 3.26%, Utilities, up 2.42%, and Real Estate, up 1.68%.

The worst-performing sectors were Information Technology, down -5.19%, Energy, off -4.13%, Materials, down -4.06%, and Telcos, slipping -1.22%.

There are two trading days left before June month and quarter end, as well as the close of fiscal 2026.

As of the close on Friday, the ASX200 was up 2.6%, ex-dividends, for FY26.

Today marks the ex-distribution/dividend date for a suite of REITs.

For more details, check out the FNArena calendar:

https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Today’s Big Picture, J.L.Bernstein

AI Selloff Is About Price, Not Demand

Tech sold off worldwide on word that OpenAI may push its IPO to 2027.

Look past the headline. Altman wants a one trillion dollar valuation, and his bankers said wait for calmer markets or take less now.

He won’t take less. So this is a fight over price, not a verdict on AI demand.

Rate Cuts Are Off The Table

In January the market had the Fed cutting this year. Now the debate is whether it hikes.

Kashkari, who votes on rates and leans dovish, flipped his own call today from one cut to one hike after inflation hit a three year high.

That quiet reversal, not any IPO headline, is the real weight on pricey tech.

Oil’s Round Trip Is Complete

US crude closed below seventy dollars for the first time since the Iran war began in late February.

A full round trip, even after Trump said Iran broke the ceasefire by hitting a cargo ship in Hormuz.

Tankers keep crossing and US drillers are adding rigs, so the supply scare has faded.

ANZ Bank, Australian Morning Focus extract

Equity markets were a little weaker on Friday night. The S&P500 closed unchanged, while the Nasdaq was down -0.2%. 

In Europe, the EuroStoxx50 was down -0.7% and the FTSE 100 fell -0.2%. 

The yield on the US 10y Treasury note fell -2bp to 4.37%. 

Oil prices were lower. WTI fell -3.7% to US$69.2/bbl. Gold rose 1.5% to US$4,088.7/oz. 

The advance (merchandise) trade deficit for May widened US$22.8bn to US$105.8bn, the largest deficit since March last year. Imports rose 3.6% m/m and exports fell -5.4% m/m. 

Exports of industrial supplies fell -7.0% m/m, capital goods exports fell -5.0% m/m and consumer goods exports were down -9.2% m/m. Imports rose 15% y/y, driven by a 41.9% y/y rise in capital goods imports. Imports of consumer goods fell -9.2% y/y. 

Tokyo CPI rose 1.7% y/y vs 1.6% previously: core rose to 1.6% y/y vs 1.3%. 

Middle East: Since a drone attack on a Singaporean-flagged container ship on Thursday, skirmishes have escalated between Iran and US, with each accusing the other of breaching the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding.

The market will likely focus on how many ships are successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 

This week’s data focus is on the US labour market reports. May JOLTS job openings are expected to have fallen back -343k to 7,275k, leaving the ratio of job openings to unemployed people around 1:1. 

That would show the labour market is in balance. ADP private sector hiring is expected to have held steady in June at 118k vs May’s 122k. The June national labour market report, Thursday, is the main release. 

Nonfarm payrolls job hiring is expected to have eased back to -115k vs 172k in May, unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings (AHE) growth at 0.3% m/m (3.5% y/y). 

Such a report would signal non-inflationary jobs growth, allowing the Fed to continue to prioritise inflation within its dual mandate.

At 3.5% y/y, AHE growth would signal that there is no excess inflation coming from the labour market.

From a labour market perspective, there is no reason for the Fed to raise interest rates.

Ai Fatigue Weighs on the ‘Lag 7’, Ed Yardeni & Toby Hearst, Yardeni Quicktakes, extract

As we predicted, the S&P500 had a June Swoon. We expected that it would be more of a broadening rotation than a widespread correction.

That’s the way it played out.

The S&P500 market-weighted stock price index peaked at a record high of 7,609.78 on June 2. It fell -3.4% through Friday’s close. Over that same period, the S&P500 equal-weighted stock price index was unchanged.

Investors seem to be experiencing AI Fatigue. They are questioning whether the hyperscalers’ massive spending on AI infrastructure will ever pay off.

They see token prices falling, suggesting there might already be excess compute capacity.

They see that yet another Chinese company is offering cheaper, powerful, and open-source LLMs. They worry that new technologies will rapidly make current ones obsolete in a process known as “creative destruction.”

Companies are experiencing “token budget hangover,” where agentic AI usage is blowing up forecasted budgets. Microsoft is eyeing DeepSeek as a hyper-cheap, optional alternative to the expensive OpenAI and Anthropic models currently powering its enterprise agent tool, Copilot Cowork.

To cut its own soaring internal AI token usage costs, Microsoft issued a firm June 30, 2026 cutoff deadline for its Experiences + Devices (E+D) division—the engineering teams behind Windows, Office, Teams, and Surface—to stop using Anthropic’s Claude Code.

As a result, the Mag-7, which includes the biggest hyperscalers, hasn’t been so magnificent in June. The MAGS ETF peaked at a record high on May 26 and fell -12.9% through Friday’s close.

It is down -6.6% ytd, while the XMAGS ETF (a.k.a. the “Impressive 493”) is up 13.7%. The Mag-7s have been the Lag-7s.

While the MAGS and IGV (i.e., software ETF) swooned during June, the SOXX semiconductor ETF continued to soar to a new record high on June 22. So there has been rotation even within the Information Technology sector.

Earnings. FEMO (Fabulous Earnings Momentum) may be starting to lose a wee bit of its mojo. S&P500 forward earnings edged up to another record high during the week of June 25 as both the 2026 and 2027 analysts’ consensus earnings expectations edged down.

The same can be said for the analysts’ consensus earnings estimates for Q2-Q4 of 2026 . However, they are still forecasting y/y growth rates in the low- to mid-20s.

The forward earnings of the S&P500, S&P400, and S&P600 all rose to record highs last week. This confirms that FEMO continues to broaden within the stock market.

FEMO is also confirmed by the percent of S&P500 companies with positive 12-month percent changes in forward revenues (88.4%) and forward earnings (85.8%).

Irrational exuberance is starting to show up in FEMO, as consensus-expected long-term earnings growth (LTEG) rose to a record 43.5% for the S&P500 Information Technology sector last week. That boosted the LTEG of the S&P500 to a record 25.5%.

Meanwhile, the combined forward earnings share of the S&P500 Information Technology and Communication Services sectors rose to a record 44.0% last week.

Such FEMO has driven the sectors’ combined market-cap share to 47.6%. That suggests a bubble only if the analysts who cover companies in these two sectors are irrationally exuberant about forward earnings, which have been driven by much better-than-expected earnings during the Q1-2026 earnings season.

Sentiment. Meanwhile, the Bull-Bear Ratios that we follow indicate greater bullishness relative to their historical averages. They aren’t high enough yet to provide a sell signal from a contrarian perspective.

Dow Theory. Both the DJTA and the DJIA have been very strong so far this year. Both are near their recent record highs. So Dow Theory remains bullish.

The transportation sector of the economy is showing recent improvement in ATA Truck Tonnage through April, along with a new record high in railcar loadings of intermodal containers through the week of June 19.

Corporate news in Australia:

• Lendlease Group ((LLC)) has completed the sale of its UK Build to Rent portfolio for around $260m
• Resimax has agreed to sell almost half of the Eynesbury Estate project to Mitsubishi Real Estate in a transaction worth more than $700m
• CapitaLand is set to acquire Melbourne’s Quincy Hotel, expanding its Australian accommodation portfolio
• Canadian pension fund OMERS is assessing a potential investment in La Trobe Financial
• Forrestania Resources ((FRS)) has agreed to acquire Ramelius Resources’ ((RMS)) Edna May gold mine for $300m, funded through cash and shares
• GPT Group ((GPT)) is pursuing the acquisition of a Brisbane office tower valued at about $400m to grow its commercial property portfolio
• HMC Capital ((MHC)) and KKR have secured regulatory approval to establish Illuma Energy, with funding capacity of up to $603m 
• Ampol ((ALD)) has launched a $400m subordinated notes offer to support refinancing and broader capital management initiatives
• EchoIQ ((EIQ)) is planning a $100m capital raising following a strong share price performance

On the calendar today:

-JP May Retail sales

-APA GROUP ((APA)) ex-div 30.50c

-ASPEN GROUP LIMITED ((APZ)) ex-div 5.5c (36%)

-ARENA REIT ((ARF)) ex-div 4.81c

-BWP TRUST ((BWP)) ex-div 9.83c

-CARINDALE PROPERTY TRUST ((CDP)) ex-div 14.9415c

-CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) ex-div 25.84c (80%)

-CENTURIA INDUSTRIAL REIT ((CIP)) ex-div 4.2c

-CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT ((CLW)) ex-div 6.38c

-CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP ((CMW)) ex-div 0.75c

-CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) ex-div 5.2c (9%)

-CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) ex-div 2.53c

-CHARTER HALL SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE REIT ((CQE)) ex-div 4.3c

-CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT ((CQR)) ex-div 6.40c

-DIGICO INFRASTRUCTURE REIT ((DGT)) ex-div 6.00c

-DPM METALS INC ((DPM)) ex-div 4.15c

-DEXUS CONVENIENCE RETAIL REIT ((DXC)) ex-div 5.23c

-DEXUS INDUSTRIA REIT ((DXI)) ex-div 4.15c

-DEXUS ((DXS)) ex-div 17.70c

-GRYPHON CAPITAL INCOME TRUST ((GCI)) ex-div 1.38c

-GARDA PROPERTY GROUP ((GDF)) ex-div 2.25c

-GDI PROPERTY GROUP ((GDI)) ex-div 2.50c

-GEMLIFE COMMUNITIES GROUP ((GLF)) ex-div 1.10c

-GOODMAN GROUP ((GMG)) ex-div 15.00c

-GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA ((GOZ)) ex-div 9.20c

-GPT GROUP ((GPT)) ex-div 12.25c

-HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT ((HDN)) ex-div 2.15c

-LIBERTY FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED ((LFG)) ex-div 5.00c

-MIRVAC GROUP ((MGR)) ex-div 4.80c

-REEF CASINO TRUST ((RCT)) ex-div 6.83c

-RAM ESSENTIAL SERVICES PROPERTY FUND ((REP)) ex-div 0.80c

-RURAL FUNDS GROUP ((RFF)) ex-div 2.93c

-REGION GROUP ((RGN)) ex-div 7.20c

-STOCKLAND ((SGP)) ex-div 16.20c

-TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED ((TCL)) ex-div 35.00c

-WAYPOINT REIT LIMITED ((WPR)) ex-div 4.25c

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

The Australian share market over the past thirty days…

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

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