Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Sep 28, 2022

This story features AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIZ

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

AIZ   ALL   AMA   ANG   AVH   CAT   CGS   CHC   COI   COL   CTP   CUV   EDV   FMG (2)   GL1   IEL (2)   JAN   KMD   MAD   NHC   ORG   RWC   TAH   TLX  

AIZ    AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics – Overnight Price: $0.62

Jarden rates ((AIZ)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden increases near-term earnings forecasts for Air New Zealand materially to reflect the strength of the yield environment and new 1H FY23 profit guidance, which was well above market expectations.

The broker expects the buoyant yield environment to soften in the 2H as the company deploys greater capacity and competition ramps-up on the Tasman and long haul routes.

The Neutral rating is retained as the analyst expects only modest upside to the target price, which is increased to NZ76c from NZ70c on positive forecast earnings changes.

This report was published on September 23, 2022.

Current Price is $0.62. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 7.85 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.89.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.47 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.59.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL    ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $33.39

Goldman Sachs rates ((ALL)) as Buy (1) –

Accounting for the -14% global decline in mobile gaming revenue in August and recent currency exchange rate changes, Goldman Sachs has updated its earnings outlook for Aristocrat Leisure by 2.3% and 0.4% in FY22 and FY23, but by -3.1% in FY24. 

The largest declines came from the racing, shooting and geolocation genres, down -32.7%, -32.2% and -29.1% respectively, but revenue remains 4.4% ahead of pre-covid levels on a three-year compound annual growth rate basis.

Underpinned by Aristocrat Leisure's strong design and development spend, the Buy rating and target price of $43.00 are retained.

This report was published on September 16, 2022.

Target price is $43.00 Current Price is $33.39 Difference: $9.61
If ALL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $43.29, suggesting upside of 30.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 63.00 cents and EPS of 176.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.97.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 162.5, implying annual growth of 26.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 58.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.4.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 76.00 cents and EPS of 191.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 184.3, implying annual growth of 13.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 69.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AMA    AMA GROUP LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $0.25

Bell Potter rates ((AMA)) as Hold (3) –

With AMA Group's debt facility close to fully drawn, and cash at only $52m as of the end of June, Bell Potter feels a capital raise may be necessary.

The broker sees potential for a pull forward of the company's next market incentive payment or negotiation of its Capital Smart contract to reduce the need for a capital raise.

Less likely, according to the broker, would be the sale of ACM Parts, which it expects is too integral to the business.

The Hold rating is retained and the target price increases to $0.24 from $0.17.

This report was published on September 27, 2022.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: minus $0.01 (current price is over target).
If AMA meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 8.33.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 125.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ANG    AUSTIN ENGINEERING LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $0.34

Shaw and Partners rates ((ANG)) as Initiation of coverage with Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners initiates coverage on Austin Engineering, a designer and manufacturer of customised heavy equipment, typically for the hard rock, high wear mining industry. 

In the last year, dump truck trays accounted for 80% of the company's sales. Austin Engineering's recent acquisition of Mainetec gives it access to Mainetec's Hulk premium mining bucket range, expanding Austin Engineering's potential customer base.

Earnings margins have improved in the last year, and Shaw and Partners considers the near-term outlook for mining volumes to be solid. The broker initiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $0.45.

This report was published on September 26, 2022.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.34 Difference: $0.11
If ANG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 4.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.39.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 1.00 cents and EPS of 5.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.94%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.54.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AVH    AVITA MEDICAL INC

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $1.62

Bell Potter rates ((AVH)) as Speculative Buy (1) –

Bell Potter believes the trial, evaluating the safety and efficacy of the Recell system for repigmentation of stable vitiligo lesions represents a breakthrough in treatment for patients.

Pleasingly, the duration of response increased in the randomised controlled trial and the analyst suggests the therapy will likely be well supported by consumers, dermatologists and payers.

The broker makes only minor changes to its forecasts and the $3.00 target price and Buy rating are retained.

This report was published on September 15, 2022.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $1.38
If AVH meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 85% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 102.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 1.59.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 77.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 2.08.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CAT    CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $0.85

Bell Potter rates ((CAT)) as Hold (3) –

Catapult International has announced its intention to reduce costs in an effort to accelerate a return to positive free cash flow. According to Bell Potter, these costs cuts are not expected to have a significant impact on growth. 

The broker expects weaker than expected top line growth and the current economic environment were also driving factors of cost reductions. Positive free cash flow is still expected to be achieved in FY24, but at a greater level. 

The Hold rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.00 from $1.10.

This report was published on September 26, 2022.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.85 Difference: $0.15
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 22.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.86.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.03 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 6.52.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CGS    COGSTATE LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $1.40

Bell Potter rates ((CGS)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter has found Cogstate to be "ideally positioned" to capture organic growth within the trials segment, noting an increasing interest in identifying potential disease modifying therapies for the treatment of Alzheimer's Disease.

Cogstate has a current contracted revenue backlog totaling US$139.1m, with US$100.2m of this in clinical trials and 84% of new clinical trial contracts in the last financial year in Alzheimer's Disease trials. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.95 from $2.00.

This report was published on September 19, 2022.

Target price is $1.95 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.55
If CGS meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 31.82.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.93.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHC    CHARTER HALL GROUP

REITs – Overnight Price: $11.36

Goldman Sachs rates ((CHC)) as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) –

Goldman Sachs has reinitiated coverage of Charter Hall.

While the company has grown its funds under management by $46bn in the last five years, Goldman Sachs sees a more challenging environment ahead but considers Charter Hall well positioned to be opportunistic in a slowing environment. 

Diversified sources of capital and available liquidity of $7.9bn should leave Charter Hall positioned to execute in a challenging environment, according to Goldman Sachs.

The broker reinitiates with a Buy rating and a target price of $16.50.

This report was published on September 16, 2022.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $11.36 Difference: $5.14
If CHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $15.00, suggesting upside of 32.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 43.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.79%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.22.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 93.6, implying annual growth of -51.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 45.00 cents and EPS of 91.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 89.4, implying annual growth of -4.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COI    COMET RIDGE LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.16

Bell Potter rates ((COI)) as Buy (1) –

Comet Ridge has been notified that Santos ((STO)) intends to exercise its option to acquire a further 12.86% interest in the Mahalo Gas Project.

This will see Santos' interest increase to 42% from 30%, and Comet Ridge's increase to 57% from 40%, while Comet Ridge's debt to Santos reduces to $8m from $13m.

Appraisal is underway at Maholo North, and Bell Potter expects further detail as to reservoir value and near-term development potential to strengthen Comet Ridge's position.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $0.24 from $0.25.

This report was published on September 27, 2022.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: $0.08
If COI meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 50% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 22.86.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 20.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $16.68

Jarden rates ((COL)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden lowers its target for Neutral-rated Coles Group to $17.50 from $18.20, after incorporating softer group sales into forecasts and allowing for the sale of Coles Express to Viva Energy ((VEA)).

The lower sales forecast stems from a softer-than-expected update from Woolworths Group ((WOW)) for the first seven weeks of the new financial year, explains the analyst.

The sale of Coles Express dilutes the broker's EPS estimates by less than -0.5% over the next three years. It's assumed the sale finalises towards the end of Q3 FY23.

This report was published on September 23, 2022.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.68 Difference: $0.82
If COL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.45, suggesting upside of 10.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 67.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.4, implying annual growth of 3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 68.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 83.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.98.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.2, implying annual growth of 4.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CTP    CENTRAL PETROLEUM LIMITED

NatGas – Overnight Price: $0.09

Bell Potter rates ((CTP)) as Hold (3) –

Central Petroleum has delivered a weaker than expected FY22 result, reporting earnings of $16.7m compared to Bell Potter's estimated $19.0m, and a net loss of -$15.2m compared to the broker's estimated -$4.2m.

Higher than expected operating costs were a driver, with unit costs of goods sold up 21% year-on-year.

Appraisal and development programs at Mereenie and Palm Valley continue, with a goal of ramping up production to benefit from strong gas markets in the Northern Territory and east coast states. 

Bell Potter also expects an outcome of the company's asset portfolio strategic review by mid-2023. The Hold rating and target price of $0.11 are retained.

This report was published on September 19, 2022.

Target price is $0.11 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.02
If CTP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 0.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 90.00.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.00.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CUV    CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $17.11

Wilsons rates ((CUV)) as Overweight (1) –

Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals has released its Strategic Update V, outlining its plans in the consumer dermo-cosmetic market. Its first product Cyacelle, a 50+ UV protectant lotion, will be followed by three product lines.

Wilsons highlights one of these, a tanning product aimed at delivering a natural tan while providing UV protection, could represent a significant market opportunity. 

Despite Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals continuing to provide detail on its earnings diversification strategy, Wilsons believes the market is yet to appreciate the company's transparency. The Overweight rating and target price of $23.53 are retained.

This report was published on September 20, 2022.

Target price is $23.53 Current Price is $17.11 Difference: $6.42
If CUV meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.30 cents and EPS of 52.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.41.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 9.60 cents and EPS of 79.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.44.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

EDV    ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $6.97

Goldman Sachs rates ((EDV)) as Buy (1) –

A player card system expected to be implemented by the Tasmanian government by December 2024 will limit player losses to a maximum $100 per day, $500 a month or $5,000 a year. 

Goldman Sachs estimates this will impact on -0.3% of Endeavour Group's sales, or -3.8% of before tax profit.

The broker retains a constructive view on Endeavour Group's longer term growth aspirations, anticipating the increasing cost and complexity of the gambling industry's operating environment could accelerate the exit of independent publicans.

The Buy rating and target price of $8.10 are retained.

This report was published on September 16, 2022.

Target price is $8.10 Current Price is $6.97 Difference: $1.13
If EDV meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.44, suggesting upside of 6.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 21.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.78.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.8, implying annual growth of 7.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 37.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.2, implying annual growth of 8.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FMG    FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED

Iron Ore – Overnight Price: $16.82

Goldman Sachs rates ((FMG)) as Sell (5) –

Fortescue Metals has announced an execution strategy to decarbonise its Pilbara iron ore operations by 2030, at a cost of US$6.2bn, and targeting annual operational expenditure savings greater than -US$800m. 

Goldman Sachs expects the company will lower its dividend payout ratio to 50% from 75% to fund the project. 

With the US$6.2bn spend flagged by Fortescue Metals representing spend above existing planned capital expenditure to sustain operations, and excluding replacement of the Iron Bridge mining fleet, Goldman Sachs highlights overall spend looks to exceed US$7-8bn.

The Sell rating and target price of $12.10 are retained.

This report was published on September 20, 2022.

Target price is $12.10 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: minus $4.72 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $16.34, suggesting downside of -0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 113.49 cents and EPS of 161.13 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.75%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 51.84 cents and EPS of 93.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.08%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of -28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates ((FMG)) as Hold (3) –

Shaw and Partners continues to be frustrated about a lack of detail even after Fortescue Metals updated the market on its decarbonisation strategy.

The company's aim is to eliminate fossil fuel use and achieve zero carbon emisions across iron ore operations by 2030.

The broker tables a long list of unanswered questions and points to a lack of documentation to show potential support from the EU or any other government. 

The cost per KWhr for any technologies used in the decarbonisation strategy would also be of assistance, bemoans the analyst.

Hold rating and $17 target price retained.

This report was published on September 21, 2022.

Target price is $17.00 Current Price is $16.82 Difference: $0.18
If FMG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.34, suggesting downside of -0.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 261.60 cents and EPS of 226.15 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 15.55%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.44.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 166.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 10.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 6.5.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 130.87 cents and EPS of 139.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.78%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of -28.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 123.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GL1    GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $2.29

Shaw and Partners rates ((GL1)) as Buy (1) –

Shaw and Partners has described Global Lithium Resources as going from "strength to strength", with the company recently announcing positive drilling results at its Manna lithium project with an updated resource estimate expected in the fourth quarter. 

The broker anticipates the resource base at both Manna and Marble Bar to be substantially increased as drilling campaigns continue, and expects the company to target a 30m tonne resource base. 

Global Lithium Resources' major shareholder, Mineral Resources ((MIN)) has increased its shareholding to 8.0%. 

The Buy rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.10 from $2.10.

This report was published on September 16, 2022.

Target price is $3.10 Current Price is $2.29 Difference: $0.81
If GL1 meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 95.42.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 45.80.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $27.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((IEL)) as Buy (1) –

IDP Education will acquire student placement agency Intake Education for -$83m, broadening its geographic footprint and providing leverage for IDP Education to grow share in key high growth source markets according to Goldman Sachs.

Intake Education also maintains a strong presence in the UK, which Goldman Sachs sees as an opportunity for IDP Education to grow its share of student placements in the region. The acquisition is expected to complete in November. 

The Buy rating and target price of $36.00 are retained.

This report was published on September 20, 2022.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $9
If IEL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.06, suggesting upside of 23.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 41.00 cents and EPS of 59.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 62.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.1, implying annual growth of 32.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Jarden rates ((IEL)) as Overweight (2) –

Jarden likes the -$83m acquisition of Intake Education by IDP Education. The move into West Africa, particularly Nigeria, is considered positive, given the high rate of demand for international study and its underlying population and wealth tailwinds.

Intake Education runs a similar B2C model for student placements as IDP Education, according to the analyst, and is a leader for UK study with the largest and most respected agency in West Africa.

The broker expects IDP Education will be net cash by June 2023 and sees further opportunities for highly-accretive bolt-on acquisitions.

The Overweight rating is maintained and the target rises to $35.03 from $33.53.

This report was published on September 21, 2022.

Target price is $35.03 Current Price is $27.00 Difference: $8.03
If IEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $33.06, suggesting upside of 23.5%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 41.70 cents and EPS of 59.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.54%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 59.8, implying annual growth of 62.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 43.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.7.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 55.40 cents and EPS of 79.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.05%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.09.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 79.1, implying annual growth of 32.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 33.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JAN    JANISON EDUCATION GROUP LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $0.38

Shaw and Partners rates ((JAN)) as Buy (1) –

A new agreement will grant Janison Education access to Cambridge University Press and Assessment's digital assessment platform and event support services.

For Shaw and Partners, the agreement solidifies Cambridge's confidence in Janison Education's capabilities.

The agreement provides Janison Education with a minium $1m revenue, and Shaw and Partners notes could position Cambridge as its largest enterprise customer.

The company has also suggested major new logo wins in the fourth quarter should add a further $1-2m in revenue for FY23.

The Buy rating and target price of $0.80 are retained.

This report was published on September 16, 2022.

Target price is $0.80 Current Price is $0.38 Difference: $0.42
If JAN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 111% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.33.

Forecast for FY24:

Shaw and Partners forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 0.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 190.00.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KMD    KMD BRANDS LIMITED

Sports & Recreation – Overnight Price: $0.94

Jarden rates ((KMD)) as Buy (1) –

The FY22 result for KMD Brands was in line with guidance provided in July. Jarden points out better pricing outcomes for the Kathmandu brand outweighed higher freight and material costs and a negative mix effect for Rip Curl.

The analyst points to elevated inventory levels (to cover for supply chain disruptions) as a key negative, though these are expected to normalise over time.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price falls to NZ$1.40 from NZ$1.60 due to greater caution on revenues from Rip Curl and near-term earnings downgrades. Buy.

This report was published on September 21, 2022.

Current Price is $0.94. Target price not assessed.
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 5.82 cents and EPS of 8.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.30.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.49 cents and EPS of 10.81 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.69.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MAD    MADER GROUP LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $2.78

Bell Potter rates ((MAD)) as Buy (1) –

Bell Potter estimates Mader Group's balance sheet is capable of funding growth opportunities and supporting future dividends. Expansion into the US and Canadian mining and energy sectors is expected to complement the mature Australian business.

Positively for Mader Group, according to the analyst, leading financial indicators published by two significant overseas mining and construction equipment OEM/dealers indicate strong near-term capital spend by miners.

Bell Potter retains its Buy rating and $3.65 target for Mader Group.

This report was published on September 21, 2022.

Target price is $3.65 Current Price is $2.78 Difference: $0.87
If MAD meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 7.57 cents and EPS of 25.22 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.72%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.02.

Forecast for FY24:

Bell Potter forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 7.30 cents and EPS of 20.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.63%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.30.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NHC    NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED

Coal – Overnight Price: $5.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((NHC)) as Sell (5) –

New Hope announced full year earnings of $1.58m and net profit of $1.0bn, in line with Goldman Sachs.

A final dividend of 56 cents per share, including a special 25 cents per share payment, was a miss to the broker's expected 60 cents, with the company announcing its intention to continue paying special dividends but also explore share buybacks.

The company expects thermal coal prices to remain at current elevated levels for at least the next 6-12 months. Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings per share outlook by -2%, -17% and -23% through to FY25 on higher costs at Bengalla.

The Sell rating is retained and the target price increases to $3.80 from $3.60.

This report was published on September 20, 2022.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: minus $1.93 (current price is over target).
If NHC meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 34% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $5.83, suggesting downside of -2.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 97.00 cents and EPS of 130.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 16.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 244.6, implying annual growth of 107.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 165.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 27.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.98%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.24.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 224.5, implying annual growth of -8.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 134.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 22.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORG    ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED

Infrastructure & Utilities – Overnight Price: $5.19

Jarden rates ((ORG)) as Neutral (3) –

Origin Energy has announced the divestment of its Beetaloo interest to Tamboran Resources ((TBN)) for $60m. According to Jarden, the company also intends to exit its other upstream exploration assets to refocus on its ambition to lead the energy transition. 

Jarden's valuation had ascribed $255m to Origin Energy's Beetaloo holdings, although nothing to the company's other exploration assets.

Having sold the stake for only $60m, -$195m below the broker's valuation, Jarden has lowered its target price -10 cents per share.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.65 from $5.75.

This report was published on September 19, 2022.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.19 Difference: $0.46
If ORG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $6.48, suggesting upside of 21.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 34.50 cents and EPS of 25.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.4.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 27.00 cents and EPS of 35.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.62.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 54.7, implying annual growth of 38.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RWC    RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORP. LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.38

JP Morgan rates ((RWC)) as Overweight (1) –

Despite a trading update by Reliance Worldwide showing improvements for August sales growth across all divisions compared to July, JP Morgan expects sales trends will show ongoing volatility, as the market continues to slow.

A ‘mid-single’ digit contribution from average selling prices in August 2022, implies to the analyst ‘mid-teens’ group volume growth ex. EZ-FLO.

The EMEA region is considered to be holding up well despite industry commentary of a slowdown in Europe, and the broker notes the underlying Americas business appears to be stable.

The Overweight rating and $5.15 target are unchanged.

This report was published on September 19, 2022.

Target price is $5.15 Current Price is $3.38 Difference: $1.77
If RWC meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.79, suggesting upside of 42.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.25%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 28.9, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.6.

Forecast for FY24:

JP Morgan forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 20.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.96%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 29.9, implying annual growth of 3.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.2.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TAH    TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $0.94

Goldman Sachs rates ((TAH)) as Neutral (3) –

Tabcorp Holdings has come to an agreement to sell eBet for $62m, having announced its intention to divest the business with its FY22 results. The sale is expected to result in a pre-tax gain of $39m, as noted by Goldman Sachs. 

The company has also been awarded the 20 year Tasmanian monitoring operator license, commencing July 2023. Upfront fee costs of -$2m are expected, as well as a further -$1m over the contract lifespan, but the broker anticipates potential earnings accretion of $2-3m. 

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $1.08 from $1.10.

This report was published on September 20, 2022.

Target price is $1.08 Current Price is $0.94 Difference: $0.14
If TAH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.08, suggesting upside of 14.0%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY23:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.19%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.0, implying annual growth of -98.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.50.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.5, implying annual growth of 12.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TLX    TELIX PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $5.39

Wilsons rates ((TLX)) as Overweight (1) –

According to Wilsons, the driver of Telix Pharmaceuticals's recent volatility is its Illucix launch, but a positive view on the company's therapeutic assets is underpinning its rating on the stock. 

This positive view as to the company's therapeutic assets includes its TLX591 program. The broker expects Telix Pharmaceuticals will file an Investigational New Drug application for TLX591 this year. Treating this and TLX592 as a franchise, the broker anticipates peak sales of US$3bn.

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $8.17 from $8.50.

This report was published on September 20, 2022.

Target price is $8.17 Current Price is $5.39 Difference: $2.78
If TLX meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 25.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 21.22.

Forecast for FY23:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 10.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 49.45.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Disclaimer:
The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.

As part of emerging new trends overseas, The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition also includes providers of sponsored research. Readers should bear in mind, sponsored research, while not necessarily of lower quality, has the embedded complication that the company that is the subject of the research has paid for this research. Providers of sponsored research that can potentially be included in this Report are Breakaway Research, Edison Investment Research, Independent Investment Research, NDF Research, Pitt Street Research, and TMT Analytics.

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