Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – May 21, 2024

This story features AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ABB

An additional news report on the recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes and updates for ASX-listed equities.

In addition to The Australian Broker Call Report, which is published and updated daily (Mon-Fri), FNArena has now added The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition, featuring additional sources of research and insights on ASX-listed stocks, also enlarging the number of stocks that make up the FNArena universe.

One key difference is the *Extra* Edition will not be updated daily, but merely "regularly" depending on availability of suitable quality content. As such, the *Extra* Edition tries to build a bridge between daily updates via the Australian Broker Call Report and ad hoc news stories, that are not always timely for investors hungry for the next information update.

Investors using the *Extra* Edition as a source of input for their own share market research should thus take into account that information after publication may not be up to date, or yet awaiting another update by FNArena's team of journalists.

Similar to The Australian Broker Call Report, this *Extra* Edition includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers and other experts, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end of this Report.

The Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition is a summary that has been prepared independently of the sources identified. Readers will check the full text of the recommendations and consult a Licenced Advisor before making any investment decision.

The copyright of this Report is owned by the publisher. Readers will not copy, forward or disseminate this Report to any other person. For more vital information about the sources included, see the bottom of this Report.

COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

Click on a symbol for fast access.
The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)

ABB   ABC   AD8   ASX   CBA   CHL   COH   COL   CSL   CSR   CU6   DHG   DMP   FBU   FWD   GUD (2)   HLI   IEL (2)   IMM   JBH (2)   JIN   KCN   LLL   MXI   OML   ORI   PPM   QBE   REA   RHC   SYR   TPW  

ABB    AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED

Telecommunication – Overnight Price: $3.62

Wilsons rates ((ABB)) as Overweight (1) –

Aussie Broadband reported a weaker-than-expected 3Q24 trading update, comments Wilsons.

Residential and Enterprise & Government segments underperformed expectations, leading to a moderation in forecasts for 4Q24 net additions, notes the broker, but the forecasts are considered achievable off the back of the 4Q24 trading performance.

Management retained the FY24 EBITDA guidance of $116m-$121m with capex of -$40m-$45m.

Overweight rating unchanged and the target is lowered by -5% to $4.52.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Target price is $4.52 Current Price is $3.62 Difference: $0.9
If ABB meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 14.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.46.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 19.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.66.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ABC    ADBRI LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $3.18

Goldman Sachs rates ((ABC)) as No Rating (-1) –

The Goldman Sachs analyst introduced an Adbri EPS estimate for FY26 at $0.19, with a 1% increase in EBIT to $207m and a 4% decline in underlying NPAT to $203m.

The changes are not viewed as material, with the broker noting the company's performance has been impacted by fluctuating demand in the construction sector, with ongoing challenges in managing operational costs.

The analyst does not expect any significant shifts in the company's overall financial outlook. The stock is not rated.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Current Price is $3.18. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $3.20, suggesting upside of 0.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.88.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.5, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 18.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 2.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 8.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

AD8    AUDINATE GROUP LIMITED

Hardware & Equipment – Overnight Price: $16.24

Canaccord Genuity rates ((AD8)) as Buy (1) –

Audinate Group updated the market at its Investor Day and Canaccord Genuity points to the central role this company holds in the networked audio market, supported by over 4,000 Dante-enabled products from 600-plus OEM manufacturers.

The broker notes cloud-based initiatives, such as Dante Connect and Dante Director, aim to centralise AV control, offering substantial monetisation opportunities.

Canaccord Genuity forecasts sales growth  to $148.3m by FY2026 from $69.7m in FY2023, with EBITDA expected to increase to $45.0m from $13.5m over the same period.

Buy rating and $20 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 16, 2024.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $16.24 Difference: $3.76
If AD8 meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $20.15, suggesting upside of 19.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 124.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of -33.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 182.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 15.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 108.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.9, implying annual growth of 72.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 105.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ASX    ASX LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $62.92

Goldman Sachs rates ((ASX)) as Sell (5) –

Goldman Sachs initiates coverage of ASX with a Sell rating and a $60 target price.

The broker expects ASX will continue to experience regulatory, cost, and margin pressures with downside risks and points to ongoing elevated capital expenditure on the CHESS replacement and technology enhancement.

ASX also produces a lower return on equity (ROE) for the Clearing and Settlement systems, below the bourse's ROE while representing 13% of revenues.

The analysts envisages little upside from higher trading volumes and considers the premium valuation as unwarranted.

Sell rating. Target price $60.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $62.92 Difference: minus $2.92 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $62.68, suggesting downside of -0.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 207.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.79.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 245.0, implying annual growth of 49.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 208.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 218.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.48.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 254.7, implying annual growth of 4.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 216.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.6.

Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CBA    COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Banks – Overnight Price: $121.77

Jarden rates ((CBA)) as Underweight (4) –

CommBank's 3Q update was slightly better-than-expected, highlighting to Jarden stabilising net interest margins (NIMs) and better-than-expected credit conditions.

The cash profit beat forecasts by consensus and the broker by 3% and 2.4%, respectively, driven largely by lower bad and doubtful debts and a modestly better NIM.

Management signaled "improved momentum" around mortgage competition. No 3Q NIM was disclosed but Jarden suggests it likely fell by -0.5bps quarter-on-quarter to around 1.96%.

The Underweight rating and $102 target are retained.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $102.00 Current Price is $121.77 Difference: minus $19.77 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $93.15, suggesting downside of -23.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 455.00 cents and EPS of 581.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.96.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 583.9, implying annual growth of -3.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 458.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.8.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 456.00 cents and EPS of 575.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.74%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 21.17.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 574.0, implying annual growth of -1.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 464.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.2.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CHL    CAMPLIFY HOLDINGS LIMITED

Travel, Leisure & Tourism – Overnight Price: $1.29

Canaccord Genuity rates ((CHL)) as Buy (1) –

Camplify Holdings is experiencing integration delays of the PaulCamper (PC) acquisition and management noted an impact on FY24 revenue by -$3.5m-$4m.

Canaccord Genuity assesses the issues are isolated to the PC acquisition, with the core A&NZ business remaining strong and contributing around 80% of group revenue, with expected growth of 30% in FY24.

The broker adjusts forecasts for the PC issues; forecast revenue is reduced by -5% for FY24 and -6% for FY25.

Camplify Holding retains $22m cash-on-hand and management anticipates cost savings of -$3m-$4m p.a. post-integration, the broker highlights.

Buy rating unchanged and the target is lowered to $2.75 from $3.25.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $1.29 Difference: $1.455
If CHL meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 112% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 14.39.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 129.50.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COH    COCHLEAR LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $319.71

Wilsons rates ((COH)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons points to recent results from Cochlear competitor Sonova as supporting the analyst's 2H24 forecasts with consistent levels of implant activity.

The broker believes that Cochlear is gaining market share, especially in the adult segment, driven by increased 'medicalisation' of hearing loss.

The company is also forecast to benefit from the growing single-sided deafness (SSD) market in the US, expected to add  around US$350m annually to the total addressable market (TAM).

Wilsons leaves earnings forecasts unchanged.

Overweight rating and $365 target price.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Target price is $365.00 Current Price is $319.71 Difference: $45.29
If COH meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $257.75, suggesting downside of -19.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 420.00 cents and EPS of 594.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.31%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.77.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 601.5, implying annual growth of 31.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 419.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 53.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 470.50 cents and EPS of 675.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.47%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 47.32.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 679.1, implying annual growth of 12.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 470.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 47.0.

Market Sentiment: -0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

COL    COLES GROUP LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $16.28

Goldman Sachs rates ((COL)) as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) –

Post the 1Q24 trading update from Coles Group, Goldman Sachs has become more positive on the company.

The analyst notes improvements in addressing margin and stock-loss issues under new CEO leadership, as well as strong retail execution, efficient communication of value to consumers, and significant cost reductions through the Simplify and Save program.

Faster scaling of Retail Media, which is expected to significantly enhance the Food segment's margin, has been identified by the broker as a major growth driver.

Goldman Sachs assesses the company is positioned for recovery and EBIT forecasts have been raised by 2% in FY24 up to 6% in FY26.

Upgrade to Neutral from Sell and the target revised to $16.30.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $16.28 Difference: $0.02
If COL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $17.53, suggesting upside of 7.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 65.00 cents and EPS of 81.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 80.2, implying annual growth of -4.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 66.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 64.00 cents and EPS of 80.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.35.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 86.0, implying annual growth of 7.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 70.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSL    CSL LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $277.90

Wilsons rates ((CSL)) as Market Weight (3) –

Wilsons commissioned expert insights into the potential for IG margin improvements for CSL driven by the HORIZON I & II initiatives.

These initiatives could enhance the CSL Behring margins to 61%-64%, compared to the previous target of 58%, and improve free cash flows, the analyst highlights.

Wilsons forecasts EPS growth for the next three years at around 13% with potential for market share gains in plasma-derived therapies and successful R&D projects like GARDA.

However, the broker views there are several short term sentiment headwinds, such as competition and regulatory challenges.

Wilsons forecasts have been slightly adjusted to reflect these changes. Market weight rating unchanged. Target price lifted to $297.02 from $253.29.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Target price is $297.02 Current Price is $277.90 Difference: $19.12
If CSL meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $316.73, suggesting upside of 14.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 409.94 cents and EPS of 931.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 29.82.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 924.7, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 402.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.9.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 460.23 cents and EPS of 1062.33 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1165.2, implying annual growth of 26.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 513.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CSR    CSR LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $8.90

Goldman Sachs rates ((CSR)) as No Rating (-1) –

CSR reported FY24 net profit which met expectations according to Goldman Sachs but was a 5% beat on consensus forecasts.

The analyst revises down FY25 revenue estimates by -3%, but the net profit estimate is increased by 1% for FY25 due to lower interest costs.

The stock is not rated.

This report was published on May 21, 2024.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $8.90 Difference: minus $1.8 (current price is over target).
If CSR meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $7.89, suggesting downside of -11.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.3, implying annual growth of -18.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.7.

Forecast for FY26:

Current consensus EPS estimate is 41.8, implying annual growth of 6.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.3.

Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

CU6    CLARITY PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices – Overnight Price: $4.30

Wilsons rates ((CU6)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons has upgraded its price target for Clarity Pharmaceuticals by 44% to $4.50 as a result of higher than expected market share in the BCR indication, plus the inclusion of partner opportunities for therapeutic assets in the valuation.

The broker anticipates Clarity's 64Cu-SARbisPSMA PET/CT agent will capture 30% market share, up from 23%, due to its clinical differentiation. 

Wilsons also highlights the company is an attractive acquisition target for big pharma, given its unique IP and promising data.

The analyst's forecasts have been updated, reflecting a higher peak sales estimate for 64Cu-SARbisPSMA from to $490m from $340m.

Overweight rating unchanged.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.2
If CU6 meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 13.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 32.09.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 17.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 25.15.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DHG    DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $2.90

Jarden rates ((DHG)) as Buy (1) –

Third quarter updates for both Domain Holdings Australia and REA Group revealed better-than-expected volumes and geographic mix benefits due to the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne listing volumes, explains Jarden.

Both total and digital revenue grew by 17% in the 3Q for Domain, and management raised FY24 volume guidance to the top of the prior range.

Residential revenue grew by 22%, despite being held back by a negative impact from revenue deferrals of -5%, which should mostly reverse into Q4, point out the analysts.

The Buy rating and $3.70 target are maintained despite the broker's FY24 EBITDA and NPAT forecasts being revised upwards by 3.1% and 5.8%, respectively.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $2.90 Difference: $0.8
If DHG meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.35, suggesting upside of 15.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 4.10 cents and EPS of 8.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.94.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of 98.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 35.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 4.20 cents and EPS of 8.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.45%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.12.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 17.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

DMP    DOMINO'S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED

Food, Beverages & Tobacco – Overnight Price: $37.00

Goldman Sachs rates ((DMP)) as (3) –

The Brisbane Strategy Day for Domino's Pizza Enterprises proved to be a disappointing affair, according to the experience of the Goldman Sachs analyst.

Downgrades in the European strategy and performance were notable compared to peers, including sales/store declines of -7% in 2H23 vs 2H19, over-expansion, and under-investment in consumer-facing digital infrastructure, the broker notes.

Goldman Sachs suggests store economics have been eroded and the payback periods increased has increased, prompting the analyst to suggest more customer facing investment is required

Goldman Sachs has lowered profit estimates by -6% for FY24 through to FY26, reflecting higher interest expenses and lower margins. 

Revised target price of $36.30 from $39.70. Neutral rating unchanged.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $36.30 Current Price is $37.00 Difference: minus $0.7 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $49.92, suggesting upside of 33.1%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 107.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.89%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.61.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 137.5, implying annual growth of 198.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 129.00 cents and EPS of 164.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.49%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 180.9, implying annual growth of 31.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 137.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FBU    FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED

Building Products & Services – Overnight Price: $2.73

Goldman Sachs rates ((FBU)) as Neutral (3) –

Fletcher Building downgraded its FY24 guidance by -13% at the midpoint, reflecting weaker-than-expected trading conditions in Australia and New Zealand, particularly in the residential construction market.

Goldman Sachs accordingly adjusts FY24-FY26 EBIT forecasts by -12% and -16%, respectively.

The valuation is not viewed as challenging but the leverage of the balance sheet is viewed as concerning, with the broker highlighting net debt to EBITDA will peak at 2.2x by year end, well above management's target range of 1-2x.

Neutral rating unchanged; the target is lowered to $3.05 from $3.70.

This report was published on May 13, 2024.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: $0.32
If FBU meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.77, suggesting upside of 3.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 30.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.49 cents and EPS of 30.51 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 6.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.1, implying annual growth of -8.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.1.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FWD    FLEETWOOD LIMITED

Infra & Property Developers – Overnight Price: $1.39

Moelis rates ((FWD)) as Buy (1) –

Fleetwood downgraded its FY24 EBIT guidance to $7-8.5m due to challenging market conditions in the RV segment and project award delays in NSW affecting margins in the Building Solutions (BS) segment, notes Moelis.

Community Solutions (CS) should grow 2H24 earnings with increasing contracted occupancy at Searipple Village and an incremental $30m in FY25 revenue, notes the broker.

The company announced a 12-month share buyback program up to $5m and reiterated its 100% net profit payout policy.

The Moelis analyst downgrades EPS forecasts by -46.2% for FY24 and -18.4% for FY25. Buy rating and the target lowered to $2.10 from $2.31.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.39 Difference: $0.715
If FWD meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 52% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 2.60 cents and EPS of 7.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.88%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.53.

Forecast for FY25:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 18.50 cents and EPS of 22.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 13.36%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.10.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GUD    G.U.D. HOLDINGS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $10.94

Canaccord Genuity rates ((GUD)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity came away from the G.U.D. Holdings investor day upbeat, believing the company is intrinsically undervalued.

The broker points to past underperformance of the APG acquisition and the fact it has yet to reach its EBITDA forecasts underscores market concerns.

The analyst points to FY24 guidance which sits at least $193.5m EBITA, with underlying growth estimated at 8%.

Canaccord Genuity retains earnings estimates and highlights an anticipated recovery which opens up a potential re-rating for the stock.

Buy rating and $14.60 target retained.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $14.60 Current Price is $10.94 Difference: $3.66
If GUD meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 16.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 42.00 cents and EPS of 87.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 12.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 98.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.57%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.8, implying annual growth of 12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Wilsons rates ((GUD)) as Overweight (1) –

Wilsons was impressed by the G.U.D. Holdings investor day.

Management highlighted increased investment in product development and greenfield expansion and it expects to leverage these investments for long-term growth.

The broker sees potential upside to the consensus EBIT forecast of $10-13m over the next 2-years, driven by cyclical improvements in ECB and APG, but it is conditional on the domestic vehicle sales trajectory and a recovery in New Zealand.

The company's organisational restructure aims to extract synergies and it remains committed to value-add bolt-on acquisitions, particularly in vehicle suspension, notes Wilsons.

Earnings forecasts are maintained. Overweight rating and $13.06 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 16, 2024.

Target price is $13.06 Current Price is $10.94 Difference: $2.12
If GUD meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.79, suggesting upside of 16.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.50 cents and EPS of 83.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.07%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.18.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.2, implying annual growth of 9.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 42.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 53.00 cents and EPS of 93.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 85.8, implying annual growth of 12.6%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 46.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

HLI    HELIA GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $4.03

Goldman Sachs rates ((HLI)) as Neutral (3) –

While a low claims environment benefits earnings, sustained high return on equity may prompt mortgage lenders to self-insure, potentially impacting future revenue growth for Helia Group, Goldman Sachs suggests.

No change to the broker's earnings forecasts. Neutral rating and $4.53 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $4.53 Current Price is $4.03 Difference: $0.5
If HLI meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 62.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.50.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 56.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 7.20.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IEL    IDP EDUCATION LIMITED

Education & Tuition – Overnight Price: $16.54

Goldman Sachs rates ((IEL)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs assesses the  regulatory news in Australia and the UK as a positive for IDP Education.

The broker highlights the UK Migration Advisory Committee recommendation to retain the graduate route, allowing graduates to remain in the UK for 2 years post-course.

In Australia, there will be no overall industry cap on international students, though individual institutions may have caps set by the government.

Goldman Sachs expects Australian volumes to grow by 8% and US volumes to decline -4% in FY25. Target price of $25.30 and Buy rating are maintained.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $25.30 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: $8.76
If IEL meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 53% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.58, suggesting upside of 32.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 44.00 cents and EPS of 63.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.66%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 26.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 47.00 cents and EPS of 67.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.84%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.69.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((IEL)) as Overweight (2) –

In response to the Australian government's introduction of a cap on international student enrolments per institution, Jarden states it is a step towards reducing uncertainty for IDP Education, supporting sustainable growth for the company.

The draft International Education and Skills Strategic Framework is forecast to be a positive for the company, opening up potential for market share gains due to IDP Education's exposure to larger institutions.

The government's 5% international student growth target and the possible increase in student accommodation supply are seen as additional positive factors.

No change to earnings forecasts.  Overweight rating and $19.70 target unchanged.

This report was published on May 13, 2024.

Target price is $19.70 Current Price is $16.54 Difference: $3.16
If IEL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $22.58, suggesting upside of 32.2%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 59.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.7, implying annual growth of 13.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 67.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 24.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 67.7, implying annual growth of 11.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 49.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

IMM    IMMUTEP LIMITED

Pharmaceuticals & Biotech/Lifesciences – Overnight Price: $0.47

Canaccord Genuity rates ((IMM)) as Buy (1) –

Immutep presented data from the AIPAC-003 trial for its lead candidate, Eftilagimod Alpha, at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO), notes Canaccord Genuity.

The trial, targeting HR-positive/HER2-negative/low metastatic breast cancer, showed continued safety with no new adverse events, which is crucial, according to the analyst, given recent competitor safety issues.

Overall response rate was 50%, with one complete response and a 100% disease control rate.

The broker is looking to results from a randomised head and neck cancer trial plus details on a Phase III lung cancer trial. Canaccord Genuity maintains a Buy rating on Immutep, with a target price of $1.00.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.47 Difference: $0.53
If IMM meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 113% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JBH    JB HI-FI LIMITED

Consumer Electronics – Overnight Price: $56.55

Goldman Sachs rates ((JBH)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

The worse than expected growth outlook for the retail industry and increasing competition has resulted in an earnings downgrade for JB Hi-Fi by Goldman Sachs.

The broker sees consumers as more cost-conscious and with interest rates expected to remain high, the company's bulky discretionary goods, particularly at The Good Guys (TGG), are anticipated to be more impacted.

Competition is increasing from various fronts, including Amazon, Harvey Norman, and Officeworks. The latter has expanded its technology sales mix aggressively.

The analyst forecasts sales and margins to disappoint in FY25/26, and adjusts net profit by -3% to -5% for FY24 through to FY26, below consensus estimates.

JB Hi-Fi is downgraded to Sell from Neutral. Target price lowered to $50.00 from $56.50.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $50.00 Current Price is $56.55 Difference: minus $6.55 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $56.55, suggesting downside of -1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 248.00 cents and EPS of 376.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.39%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 378.3, implying annual growth of -21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 246.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 236.00 cents and EPS of 361.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 379.2, implying annual growth of 0.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 239.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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Jarden rates ((JBH)) as Underweight (4) –

Jarden assesses a solid 3Q update for JB Hi-Fi, with trends broadly in line with expectations. The performances of The Good Guys and New Zealand NZ were better- than-expected, while JB Hi-Fi Australia slightly disappointed.

Despite executing well, JB Hi-Fi faces risks from growing competition, particularly in AV/IT and Telco, and accelerating deflation, suggest the analysts.

A combination of increased market competition (direct-to-consumer, Amazon, Officeworks) and increasing promotional activity is creating risk, in Jarden's opinion. The Underweight rating is unchanged and the target falls to $50.50 from $50.80.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $50.50 Current Price is $56.55 Difference: minus $6.05 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $56.55, suggesting downside of -1.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 243.00 cents and EPS of 371.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.21.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 378.3, implying annual growth of -21.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 246.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 242.00 cents and EPS of 355.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.28%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 379.2, implying annual growth of 0.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 239.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.2.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

JIN    JUMBO INTERACTIVE LIMITED

Gaming – Overnight Price: $17.26

Jarden rates ((JIN)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden is upbeat on the recent  SaaS licensing agreement with RSPCA Queensland entered into by Jumbo Interactive. The deal will help diversify the company's earnings and lower the reliance on lottery retailing and (partner) The Lottery Corporation ((TLC)).

The deal is forecast to add around $10m in total transaction value (TTV) annually, which could generate $900k in annual revenue and $650-700k in EBITDA, highlights the broker.

Jarden lifts earnings forecasts by around 2% for FY24 and FY25. The company remains well-positioned for growth with a strong balance sheet and cash flow, the broker finds.

Neutral rating unchanged. Target price raised to $15.90 from $14.70.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Target price is $15.90 Current Price is $17.26 Difference: minus $1.36 (current price is over target).
If JIN meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $17.44, suggesting upside of 0.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 66.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 25.92.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.8, implying annual growth of 41.1%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.4.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 50.00 cents and EPS of 74.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 23.04.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 77.3, implying annual growth of 9.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.4.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

KCN    KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED

Gold & Silver – Overnight Price: $1.88

Wilsons rates ((KCN)) as No Rating (-1) –

Wilsons highlights Kingsgate Consolidated is ramping up of its Chatree gold mine in Thailand, with production expected to reach 100-120kozpa at an all-in-sustaining cost of US$1,255/oz.

The broker also points to completion of the processing plants refurbishments and the arrival of a new mining fleet as a milestone for the company 

The Chatree mine offers significant exploration potential and favourable fiscal terms, the broker highlights, including an 8-year tax exemption.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Current Price is $1.88. Target price not assessed.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LLL    LEO LITHIUM LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.51

Jarden rates ((LLL)) as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) –

It has been seven months since shares of Leo Lithium were suspended, and Jarden expects the price will be volatile if (and when) it resumes trading. Commencement of operations (expected this quarter) at the Goulamina project is at risk.

Negotiations are at an impasse between Leo Lithium and the Malian Government, notes the broker, leading the company's joint venture partner, Ganfeng, to purchase Leo Lithium's 40% equity interest in the Goulamina project for US$342.7m.

This amount compares with Jarden's last published 100% project valuation of US$2,273m, implying US$909m for 40%, reflecting the increasingly weakened negotiating position for management at Leo Lithium.

A 1.5% gross revenue royalty for 20 years upon commercial production offers a potential future revenue source, observes the analyst.

The broker's rating is downgraded to Sell from Neutral and the target is slashed to 43c from 60c.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $0.43 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: minus $0.075 (current price is over target).
If LLL meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.85.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 3.04.

Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

MXI    MAXIPARTS LIMITED

Automobiles & Components – Overnight Price: $1.85

Canaccord Genuity rates ((MXI)) as Buy (1) –

MaxiPARTS' trading update revealed softness in the core MaxiParts business, observes Canaccord Genuity, due to a slowdown in transport activity on the east coast.

Management also downgraded revenue guidance for FY24. The broker lowers FY24 revenue forecasts by -3% and EBITDA forecasts by -8%.

Net profits forecasts have been reduced by -15% for FY24 and -18% for FY25. Buy rating retained and the target lowered to $2.62 from $3.50.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $2.62 Current Price is $1.85 Difference: $0.77
If MXI meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.23.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.24%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.56.

Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OML    OOH!MEDIA LIMITED

Out of Home Advertising – Overnight Price: $1.59

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OML)) as Buy (1) –

The first quarter trading update from oOh!media revealed a 1% lift in revenue, with Canaccord Genuity pointing out this is in line with the February update.

The analyst has modest revenue growth expectations for FY24, forecast at $651m, down -3% from previous estimates, reflecting a 2.7% year-on-year increase post the update.

The broker's EBITDA forecasts have also been adjusted downwards by -6% and EPS estimates are reduced by -12% due to higher finance expenses and operating leverage.

Buy rating unchanged and the target lowered to $1.90 from $2.

This report was published on May 17, 2024.

Target price is $1.90 Current Price is $1.59 Difference: $0.305
If OML meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.93, suggesting upside of 23.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 10.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.13%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.7, implying annual growth of 69.8%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.76%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 13.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.7, implying annual growth of 18.7%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 6.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ORI    ORICA LIMITED

Mining Sector Contracting – Overnight Price: $18.74

Jarden rates ((ORI)) as Downgrade to Overweight from Buy (2) –

As per Jarden, the 1H24 earnings report for Orica proved ln line with expectations and 4% ahead of consensus.

Strong EBIT growth was reported by North America (despite weather issues), LATAM and EMEA, notes the analyst, and the APA segment benefited from lower ammonia prices and re-contracting activities.

Future re-contracting growth is forecast to slow, impacting earnings from APA and result in the broker's EPS forecasts being lowered by -1.3% for FY24 and raised 3.2% in FY25.

Downgrade to Overweight from Buy with an unchanged target of $18.55.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $18.55 Current Price is $18.74 Difference: minus $0.19 (current price is over target).
If ORI meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $19.70, suggesting upside of 4.4%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 40.50 cents and EPS of 81.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.16%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.91.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 87.6, implying annual growth of 34.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 45.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.5.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 48.50 cents and EPS of 97.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 107.2, implying annual growth of 22.4%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PPM    PEPPER MONEY LIMITED

Business & Consumer Credit – Overnight Price: $1.46

Goldman Sachs rates ((PPM)) as Buy (1) –

Goldman Sachs forecasts Pepper Money will benefit from an recent decline in the average spread over BBSW post analysis of the updated industry data on wholesale funding costs, 

Accordingly, the broker has revised FY24 and FY25 EPS estimates upwards by 3.6% and 3.3%, respectively, driven by an improved Net Interest Margin (NIM) from lower funding costs, partially offset by higher expenses.

The 12-month target price is adjusted to $1.67 from $1.62 and the stock is rated Buy.

This report was published on May 15, 2024.

Target price is $1.67 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: $0.215
If PPM meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 11.00 cents and EPS of 23.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.33.

Forecast for FY25:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 13.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.93%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.39.

Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE    QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance – Overnight Price: $17.68

Jarden rates ((QBE)) as Buy (1) –

Post QBE Insurance's 1Q trading update, Jarden considers the earnings risk is to the upside.

Management confirmed FY24 guidance for gross written premium (GWP) growth and a combined operating ratio (COR) of 93.5%, with upside potential seen due to lower catastrophe costs and higher premium rate rises.

The GWP grew by 2% year-on-year, driven by a 9% increase excluding Crop, which saw an -11% decline, noted the broker.

Despite the peak US hurricane season still ahead, year-to-date catastrophe costs are tracking below budget. Jarden's EPS forecasts have been revised upwards by 1.3% for FY24 and 2.8% for FY25.

Buy rating unchanged and the target lifted to $21 from $20.75.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $17.68 Difference: $3.32
If QBE meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.72, suggesting upside of 5.9%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 95.00 cents and EPS of 189.88 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 177.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 81.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 95.00 cents and EPS of 191.10 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 182.0, implying annual growth of 2.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 83.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA    REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate – Overnight Price: $188.40

Jarden rates ((REA)) as Underweight (4) –

Third quarter updates for both Domain Holdings Australia and REA Group revealed better-than-expected volumes and geographic mix benefits, due to the outperformance of Sydney and Melbourne listing volumes, explains Jarden.

Group revenue rose by 24% to $334m and EBITDA for REA Group were marginally ahead of estimates due to a better-than-expected cost performance, explains the broker.

Earnings (EBITDA) beat the broker's forecast by 2% due to a better-than-forecast cost performance. Revenue growth included 19% yield growth in residential and 6% residential volume growth.

Management upgraded its outlook for FY24 volumes to 5-7% from 3-5%. The Underweight rating and $159 target are maintained.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $159.00 Current Price is $188.40 Difference: minus $29.4 (current price is over target).
If REA meets the Jarden target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges – negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $188.66, suggesting downside of -0.8%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 191.60 cents and EPS of 350.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 53.75.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 345.0, implying annual growth of 27.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 194.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 55.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 225.90 cents and EPS of 417.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 45.16.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 415.7, implying annual growth of 20.5%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 234.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

RHC    RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED

Healthcare services – Overnight Price: $49.76

Jarden rates ((RHC)) as Neutral (3) –

Jarden points to a much improved UK performance for Ramsay Health Care, with revenue growth and Elysium reporting a significant turnaround.

NHS volumes have shown steady growth, comments the broker, contributing positively to Ramsay UK's results where the company has a heavy NHS reliance compared to its peers.

Surgery backlog for the NHS is also stimulating the private medical insurance (PMI) market and Jarden highlights the company has capacity to treat PMI which is higher margin.

The analyst notes the strategic review in France and the improving Australian margin outlook, though challenges remain in the sector.

EPS forecasts are adjusted by 1.4% and 1.4% for FY24 and FY25, respectively. Neutral rating and the target has been raised to $64.30 from $63.43.

This report was published on May 13, 2024.

Target price is $64.30 Current Price is $49.76 Difference: $14.54
If RHC meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $58.60, suggesting upside of 19.7%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 82.00 cents and EPS of 147.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.65%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 33.76.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 131.4, implying annual growth of 5.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.6%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.3.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 100.00 cents and EPS of 223.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 22.29.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 206.3, implying annual growth of 57.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 122.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.7.

Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SYR    SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED

New Battery Elements – Overnight Price: $0.49

Jarden rates ((SYR)) as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (2) –

Jarden initiates coverage of Syrah Resources with an Overweight rating and 71c target.

The broker highlights the company is unique as an ex-China graphite producer which provides equity exposure through two globally significant assets, the Balama natural graphite mine in Mozambique and the Vidalia NG AAM facility in Louisiana, USA.

Balama, 95% owned by Syrah Resources, is the largest high-grade natural graphite reserve outside China.

Vidalia, wholly owned by the company, aims to be the first commercial-scale NG AAM producer in North America, currently undergoing product qualification with Tesla and other potential customers.

Overweight rating and 71c target price.

This report was published on May 14, 2024.

Target price is $0.71 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.22
If SYR meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.81, suggesting upside of 56.3%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 14.78 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 3.31.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is -7.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 3.66 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 13.40.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1.2, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.3.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

TPW    TEMPLE & WEBSTER GROUP LIMITED

Furniture & Renovation – Overnight Price: $10.30

Jarden rates ((TPW)) as Buy (1) –

Temple & Webster's sales trading update up to May 5 came in ahead of Jarden 's 2H forecasts and in line with the consensus estimate.

A 30% year-on-year rise for sales marked a slight deceleration from the 35% achieved in the February trading update (for the first six weeks of the year).

However, the earlier period benefited from the company's second ever above-the-line brand campaign, explain the analysts.

There were also differences in the timing of Easter this year and promotional events, notes the broker. More positively, web traffic re-accelerated in April, rising by 31% year-on-year.

The Buy rating and $12.67 target are maintained. Jarden expects the company to benefit as average order value (AOV) headwinds dissipate and the category returns to growth.

Management's long-term guidance for $1bn of sales by FY28 and a 15% EBITDA margin by FY32 remains intact, implying significant upside potential, the broker highlights.

This report was published on May 10, 2024.

Target price is $12.67 Current Price is $10.30 Difference: $2.37
If TPW meets the Jarden target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 10.6%(ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY24:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY24 EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 171.67.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.8, implying annual growth of -44.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.0%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 277.1.

Forecast for FY25:

Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 EPS of 7.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 141.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 6.8, implying annual growth of 78.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 154.9.

Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

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